Wildfire Modelling in the Age of Megafires
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Presentation at the Public Safety Communication Europe meeting at Brussels, 29th My 2013 in the Crisis Modelling Panel. Dr Joaquin Ramirez, owner of Tecnosylva and Coordiantor of the MsC in Wildfires for the University of León, Spain
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Wildfire Modelling in the Age of Megafires
- 1. Wildfire Modelling in the age of megafires
- 2. Crisis Modelling Public Safety CommunicationsEurope 2013 Brussels, 29/May/2013 Dr. Joaquín Ramírez Universidad de León&TECNOSYLVA jramirez@tecnosylva.com Wildfire Modelling in the age of megafires
- 3. Why does it matters? What is wildfire simulation? Who needs it? When is fire modeling useful? Where can it be of any help? How WM canhelp fire services nowdays? Outline
- 4. Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response System at NASA/GSFC http://youtu.be/eET7jwJOOqA Why does it matters?
- 6. 750 m fire season 200.000 ha lost 680 m losses
- 7. world is urbanizing: the rural exodus
- 8. a Fire scenarios from 2010 to 2070 (ATSR Fire Atlas based) Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J, Hayhoe K, 2009. Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLoS ONE 4(4): e5102. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102 Climate projections include 2010–2039 (A,), 2040–2069 (B) and 2070–2099 (C).
- 9. fire starts
- 10. 4 min
- 11. 7 min
- 12. 9 min
- 13. 11 min avg speed 4,9 km/h
- 14. lowernumber offires but extremelyfast and intense
- 15. 11 km diameter fireball Valencia jul 2013 the age of megafires
- 16. Fire Fighting Paradox The better we are fighting fires, the bigger they get those we cannot win
- 19. What is wildfire simulation? 1938 Honey Fire, Louisiana
- 20. a young science Harry T. Gisborne First truespecialist in forest fireresearchintheUS Jack S. Barrow Director ofthe MissoulaFire Lab TheMannGulch Fire (1949)
- 21. The science and art of FireSim Where is it going to be in the next hours? Whencan we expect to stop it? Whatis the risk to this community? Allthesequestionshaveanspatio-temporalanswer
- 22. Richard C Rothermel “The beauty of Rothermel’s model … is that it’s simple— it can be run quickly with a low-capability Computer” B. Butler the first operationalmodels
- 23. Models are out there Models completed in period 1990-2007 12 Physical 7 quasi-physical 15 empirical 5 quasi-empirical 11 simulation 22 mathematical analogous Andrew L. Sullivan Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007 International Journal of Wildland Fire Volume 18 Number 4 2009 .
- 24. The first tools: USFS Mark Farsite (1991)
- 25. accurate 3d physical modelling is FireTEC. L. Winterkamp, R. R. Linn, Jonah J. Colman, William S. Smith
- 26. SLOW & EXPENSIVE
- 31. What is Wildfire Analyst? Objetives: provide simulation capabilities in operations scenarios, and the foundations for a fire behavior database Developed under the European Preview, Programme VI (R&D) framework, for the development of operational emergency tools (www.preview-risk.com) Integrating Rothermel´s (inc. Windninja & Farsite dll) , Kitral al McArthur models Bombers GRAF (Gen. Catalunya)
- 32. BestTech Innovation Wildfire Spanish Conf (SINIF2010) BestCollaboration Public-Private (El Mundo -2011) Nominee- BestESRI DesktopApp 2012
- 33. On scene inmediate fire analysis www.wildfireanalyst.com
- 34. 1 sim /0.6 sec = 100/min
- 35. Who needs it?
- 36. If you know yourselfand yourenemy, you can win a hundred battles without jeopardy. SunTzu, Art of War 600 BC
- 38. fire progression Ignition points from fire department CADs
- 39. fire progression Immediate results where the fire will arrive in the next few hours
- 40. evacuation time risk on vulnerable assets (homes, powerlines
- 41. evacuation time Allows preparednessplanning for evacuation purposes
- 42. on the fly fire modelling callibration based on incident real time observations www.wildfireanalyst.com
- 43. Whitewater-Baldy Complex Kristen Allison BLM FBAN Type 1 100.000 ha
- 45. simulating from IR imagery
- 46. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE 28/06/2012 11:35 Valencia 47.000 ha
- 47. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE 29/06/2012 12:05 FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARS BURNT AREA: 11.770 ha Valencia 47.000 ha
- 48. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE 30/06/2012 11:10 FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARS BURNT AREA: 24.012 ha (+9.143) FIRE: ANDILLA BURNT AREA: 5.371 ha
- 53. La Jonquera 13.000 ha / 4 hrs Strategic analysis in 20 min Marc Castellonou Analyst Chief talonian Firefighters
- 54. accurate information for better decission making Wind
- 55. accurate information for better decission making
- 56. 60 % resources reallocated based on the simulation
- 58. LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEC http://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml When & Where WM can help?
- 59. Weneedto take sims fromthe lab LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEC http://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml
- 60. Plan de Prevencion de IncendiosForestalesde la Comunidad de Madrid - 2013 to
- 61. Pre-plan 65
- 62. Post- Plan 66
- 63. Wildfire Economic Impact Analysis Wildfire Economic Impact Analysis Application
- 64. Texas Wildfire Risk Portal
- 65. demonstrate the value of preventiveactions
- 66. to the
- 67. to support safer operations
- 68. after incidents, provide valuable traininig Integrating Wildfire analyst and CRISE for Sapiers Pompiers
- 69. How can WM help nowdays?
- 71. Low use in EuropeanFF services (EUFIRELAB, 2005)1 Prevention and mainly USA big fires Input data hard to process and not appropiate scales Results oriented more to laboratory than to real fire fighting HIGH NEED BUT LOW TRUST
- 72. Prevention • Fuel management • Analyze firebreaks efficiency • Resources location optimization Operations • Every Alarm Evaluation • Multiple incidents • IAP support • Integration in DSS Post fire • Fire Scenarios • Impact assesment • What if? • Historical analysis • New local models New Uses of WM
- 73. Users needsolve economic relevant problems
- 75. St. Clair Stone Fire Wildfire Simulation – Comparison Actual Perimeter 13:49 80
- 76. Accumulative Population Impacted 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 16 137 160 244 479 615 1,052 1,229 1,246 1,345 1,418 1,510 1,704 Hour of Wildfire St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Accumulative Residential Population Impacted By Hour Progression of Wildfire 13:49 81
- 77. Total Structures Impacted 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 39 60 20 32 137 69 258 105 21 33 49 81 89 StructuresImpacted Hour of Wildfire St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Number of Structures Impacted by Wildfire By Hour of Progression 13:49 82
- 78. Accumulated Structure Loss $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 $3.9 $7.2 $8.1 $12.8 $24.4 $32.1 $66.8 $73.7 $75.7 $77.9 $81.5 $89.0 $93.6 $inMillions Hour of Wildfire St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Accumulative Potential $ Loss of Structures By Hour Progression of Wildfire 13:49 83
- 79. Click the image to play the AFC YouTube video that describes the analysis 13:49 84
- 82. Overhead Primary & Fuses & Transformers - Risk Ratings
- 87. IS vs. WAS
- 90. On scene inmediate analysison megafires www.firesponse.com/wildfirengine
- 91. Wildfire Simulation is helping to better understand the biggest natural risk world wide Actual systems are ready to help more prepared users To know more: Martin E. Alexander. Some Random Thoughts on Fire Behavior Research and Operational Fire Behavior Considerations. Keynote Address 2: Fire Paradox 4th Plenary Meeting, 9-13 June 2008, Chania, Crete, Greece http://wildfirelessons.net/documents/M_E_Alexander_Keynote_Address_4th_Plenary_Meeting.pdf
- 92. 1977-2009 www.paucostafoundation.orgfire is a good servant but a bad master
- 94. Crisis Modelling Public Safety CommunicationsEurope 2013 Brussels, 29/May/2013 Dr. Joaquín Ramírez Universidad de León&TECNOSYLVA jramirez@tecnosylva.com Wildfire Modelling in the age of megafires Thank You