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Why do climate modellers trust their software? Jon Pipitone Advisor: Steve Easterbrook University of Toronto @Uvic, June 2009
This presentation ,[object Object]
Get feedback from you ,[object Object]
What am I missing?
"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research, would it?" - attributed to Albert Einstein
What is climate modelling? A kind of  computational science
What is computational science? ,[object Object],–  Wikipedia, “computational science”
What is computational science? ,[object Object]
Program outputs are the results of the experiment.
Scientific software development my focus
What is climate modelling? ,[object Object]
What is climate modelling? Source: Easterbrook,  CUSEC'09 (Source: IPCC AR4, 2007)
What is climate modelling? Source: Easterbrook,  CUSEC'09 (Source: IPCC AR4, 2007)
General Circulation Models Source: Easterbrook,  CUSEC'09 © Crown Copyright
Scientific software development
Scientific software development
Verification and Validation ,[object Object]
Code review by designated code owners ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Model-intercomparisons Source: Easterbrook, CUSEC'09
Basic Validation Steps ,[object Object],Source: Easterbrook, CUSEC'09
Validation Notes Source: Easterbrook,  CUSEC'09 © Crown Copyright
Core problems with V&V
Validation notes Bit reproducibility Core problems with V&V
In other words, …  ,[object Object]
What does this mean for software quality?
(note, we're not talking about model quality!)
How do we judge quality in scientific software?
Software Quality ,[object Object]
Measuring Quality: Defect Density ,[object Object]
Can we benchmark quality using defect density? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Hadley “defect rates” Some comparisons: NASA Space shuttle:  0.1 failures/KLOC  Best military systems: 5 faults/KLOC Worst military systems: 55 faults/KLOC Apache: 0.5 faults/KLOC XP: 1.4 faults/KLOC  Hadley’s Unified Model: avg of 24 “bug fixes” per release avg of 50,000 lines edited per release    2 defects / KLOC make it through to released code ,[object Object],Source: Easterbrook, CUSEC'09 ? ?
Few Defects Post-release ,[object Object]
Model crashes during a run
Model runs, but variables drift out of tolerance
Runs don’t bit-compare   (when they should) ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Why Do Computational Scientists Trust Their So