ClearSky Advisors Ontario PV market outlook 2011
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ClearSky Advisors Ontario PV market outlook 2011
- 1. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Ontario PV Market Outlook Demand, Market Forecast, LTEP, Supply, Outlook
- 2. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Disclaimer The materials ClearSky Advisors Inc. provides in this publication will reflect ClearSky Advisors’ judgment based upon the information available to ClearSky Advisors. ClearSky Advisors disclaims any other representations or warranties, express or implied, including without limitation any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-‐infringement. This report is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. ClearSky Advisors is an independent research firm that does and seeks to do business with all stakeholders within the industries covered in ClearSky Advisors’ research. Investors and decision-‐makers should consider ClearSky Advisors’ research as only a single factor in making their key decisions.
- 3. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Key Points LTEP & Ontario’s Electricity Supply Ontario PV Market Forecast Supply Situation Issues to Consider
- 4. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Ontario Electricity Demand 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Electricity (TWh) Year Ontario's Electricity Generation Forecast 2010-‐2018 Biomass Generation Solar Generation Wind Generation Coal Generation Natural Gas Generation Hydroelectric Generation Nuclear Generation Required Generation Sources: ClearSky Advisors Inc. 2011; OPA, IPSP Planning and Consultation Overview 2011; OPA, Ontario’s Long Term Energy Plan 2010; IESO, 18 Month Outlook December 2011
- 5. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Generation Capacity 2010-‐2018 2010 (MWac) 2018 (MWac) % change Solar 185 2,580 1,295% Wind 1,428 7,302 411% Bio energy 174 818 370% Coal 4,484 0 N/A Nuclear 11,446 8,507 -‐25.7%
- 6. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Status for solar 2010 (cum-‐dc) 2011e (cum-‐dc) Remaining contracted LTEP (dc) RESOP 189 384 126 N/A FIT/mFIT 24 133 1,653 N/A Total 213 517 1,778 2,967
- 7. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Our Scenarios • Solar PV given larger role within LTEP • Increased grid capacity • FIT rates attractive High Case • Solar PV target as per LTEP • Modestly improved build-‐out rates • FIT program rules/rates design to meet LTEP Expected Case • Continued grid constraints • Reduction in new contract awards • Less political support Low Case
- 8. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Seven Year Outlook 2011-‐2018 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MW dc Ontario PV Installation Volume (2011-‐2018) High Case Low Case 2011: 299 -‐ 326 2012: 418 -‐ 610
- 9. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. 2012 Equipment Demand (dc) By Program RESOP 58 FIT 377 microFIT 76 By Domestic Content None 58 40-‐50% 52 60% 401 2012 Volume 511MW
- 10. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. So, a lot remains to be built – what about supply?
- 11. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. 2011 in a Nutshell World-‐Wide Overcapacity Falling Prices Casualties Ontario Overcapacity Falling Prices Casualties?
- 12. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Suppliers Module Manufacturers ON facility 13-‐14 3rd Party 9-‐10 ON Silicon 2-‐3 Total 24-‐27 Inverter Manufacturing ON facility 7-‐8 3rd Party 5-‐6 ON Silicon N/A Total 12-‐14 No Supply Shortage Expected
- 13. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Will manufacturers stay?
- 14. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Policy determines 1. Policy in support of domestic supply 2. A market beyond LTEP is visible
- 15. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Drivers and constraints beyond LTEP Reality Drives Policy
- 16. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. “Uncontrollable” Factors • Biggest driver of electricity demand • Current LTEP based on modest growth Economic Growth • Refurbishment of existing generators delayed • May lead to to increased demand for PV Nuclear Delays • If US imposes anti-‐dumping measures against Chinese made products • Canada seen as possible base for US market Trade Complaints
- 17. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Controllable Factors • Cost of a nuclear reactor may not be in ratepayer interest • Increased role for PV in LTEP • 2.5 GW nuclear = 1.85 GW PV + 5.2GW Wind + 0.6GW Bio No New Nuclear • Government decides reduced role for wind in LTEP • Increased role for PV • 1GW wind = 2.37GW PV Less Wind • Government has a goal of 500,000 EVs by 2020 • EV charging will drive electricity demand • 500,000 EV = 1.2 GW PV Addition of EVs to grid • Cost-‐effective from ratepayer perspective • Will require transmission • 7 year to plan-‐build Procurement of hydro from QC
- 18. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Final word Manufacturers, Developers
- 19. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Recommendations • Upstream: Explore ways of cutting cost in the silicon value-‐chain • Downstream: Collaborate to help customers find ways of cutting logistics & labour cost • Taylor organization and offering to the distinct segment preferences in Ontario Manufacturers • Make the most out of your existing contracts • Explore acquisitions and alternative business models that give access to additional pipeline • Collaborate with suppliers to help reduce installed cost Developers/ Investors
- 20. © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. Thank You Jon E Worren 877-‐333-‐5821 x502 jon@clearskyadvisors.com ClearSky Advisors Inc. 215 Spadina Ave, Suite 419 Toronto, ON M5T 2C7