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Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 [Report]

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FILM + TV PRIVATE FINANCE INSIGHTS
“Media Finance In a Changing Economy”
2022
Jon Gosier, CEO, FilmHedge
Phone: (770) 268-...
The Film and TV industry continues to thrive post-pandemic.
At FilmHedge, we receive applications from filmmakers all over...
To put our data in perspective, in 2021 FilmHedge received applications from
around 100 productions, 40 of which were feat...
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Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 [Report]

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This report shares insights about how the Film/TV industry is evolving from a financial data perspective.

Insights were derived from hundreds of productions prior to release. This is the opposite of box office data, it's the financial data from Film/TV productions that prior to completion and release.

To respect the privacy of the individual filmmakers and producers, we have abstracted the names of each production analyzed.

This report shares insights about how the Film/TV industry is evolving from a financial data perspective.

Insights were derived from hundreds of productions prior to release. This is the opposite of box office data, it's the financial data from Film/TV productions that prior to completion and release.

To respect the privacy of the individual filmmakers and producers, we have abstracted the names of each production analyzed.

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Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 [Report]

  1. 1. FILM + TV PRIVATE FINANCE INSIGHTS “Media Finance In a Changing Economy” 2022 Jon Gosier, CEO, FilmHedge Phone: (770) 268-3006 Email: jon@filmhedge.com
  2. 2. The Film and TV industry continues to thrive post-pandemic. At FilmHedge, we receive applications from filmmakers all over the world. In 2021 403 feature films were released in the United States . In the same year, 366 1 productions were produced in the State of of Georgia which is now the #1 production destination in the World for Film and TV. 1 https://www.statista.com/statistics/187122/movie-releases-in-north-america-since-2001/#:~:text=In%202 021%2C%20a%20total%20of,before%20the%20COVID%2D19%20outbreak. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 2
  3. 3. To put our data in perspective, in 2021 FilmHedge received applications from around 100 productions, 40 of which were features with total budgets above $1M and below $50M, our area of focus. Films of this size are important because they are the fastest growing size of productions that are ‘independently financed’. The other reason this number is important: it means FilmHedge has exposure to data from around 10% of feature films released in the U.S. and 3% of Georgia productions, a number skewed by the fact that much of the production activity in Georgia is for TV series (where each episode is counted as an individual production). We didn’t allocate funding to all of these productions, our review of such deals gives us a great amount of insight about the state of film finance. This data is FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 3
  4. 4. how FilmHedge’s capital partners make better lending decisions to Film and TV producers. This report shares insights about how the industry is evolving from a financial data perspective. To respect the privacy of the individual filmmakers and producers, we have abstracted the names of each production analyzed. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 4
  5. 5. Table of Contents Summary 6 About the Data 6 MEDIA FINANCE DATA SET 9 Media Finance Study: 2022 Sample Data Set 9 I. THE OUTLOOK FOR PRODUCERS 10 FILM/TV PRODUCTION ANALYSIS 11 Mid-Range Boom 12 Film and TV Deals Reviewed for Study 13 Productions: ATL vs BTL Costs 13 Contingency Budgets 14 Debt Financing On The Rise 15 SPOTLIGHT ON GEORGIA 16 Georgia Rises as a Production Destination 17 Georgia Lensed Production Data (2018-2022) 19 Georgia Film Recovers From Covid 19 II. THE OUTLOOK FOR INVESTORS AND LENDERS 20 LENDER/INVESTOR ANALYSIS 21 Rising Bank Rates Uncorrelated with Media Lending 22 Film/TV Private Lending Is Growing 25 Media Lending Rates Decline 26 Media Finance Interest Rates 26 Lender Earnings from TV/Film Transactions 27 Comparing TV/Film Lending ROI with Real Estate Investment ROI 28 CONCLUSIONS 31 Additional Citations 32 FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 5
  6. 6. Summary This report analyzes industry-wide financial trends as it relates to private media finance and lending to Film and TV Producers and by their Investors and Lenders. These industry insights observe market changes that will affect how and when Film and TV Producers can access capital and what the Investors who finance them, and those who Lend to them, can expect. About the Data The data in this report is not comprehensive of the Film/TV Industry and is limited to publicly available datasets and a representative sample of data from productions submitted to FilmHedge or its affiliates. The nature of Film/TV is such that projects produced in one year are often not released until the following year (or even many years later). So when looking at this sample of projects financed or partially financed in 2022, some have already been released while others may not be released until 2023 or subsequent years. FilmHedge reviews productions that are often not yet public, therefore much of the data in this report can’t be found on public resources like IMDB.com. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 6
  7. 7. At FilmHedge we offer a fin-tech platform with features for investors and lenders who want access to better data to guide their media lending. We also offer tools for producers to apply for and receive funding. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 7
  8. 8. Because we work with both lenders and borrowers across the US Film/TV industry (and increasingly the global industry), we have unprecedented access to financial data on both sides of these transactions. Additionally, the data we collect is not limited to data that comes from any single financial group whereas most groups only track their internal dealflow, we track deals that are financed by third-parties as well. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 8
  9. 9. MEDIA FINANCE DATA SET Using data collected from completed transactions tracked by Filmhedge, we compiled the following data set. It’s the data set used for some of the findings, qualified productions that closed, financed by the partners we work with. Media Finance Study: 2022 Sample Data Set2 Type ATL BTL Post TXC Total Budget "Crimson" Feature $ 1,116,385 $ 5,117,210 $ 1,316,716 $ - $ 7,780,000 "Stain" Series $ 6,317,285 $ 17,982,714 $ 2,412,989 $ 8,100,000 $ 27,000,000 "Jane" Feature $ 4,648,314 $ 9,118,977 $ 1,039,285 $ 4,856,637 $ 16,582,490 "Slay" Feature $ 4,442,288 $ 5,157,711 $ 281,771 $ 2,499,614 $ 9,600,000 "Dirt" Feature $ 2,469,729 $ 2,688,489 $ 182,481 $ 935,000 $ 5,358,219 "Buddies" Feature $ 560,807 $ 898,835 $ 144,452 $ 425,000 $ 1,596,057 "Lady" Feature $ 302,976 $ 1,394,342 $ 172,515 $ 200,000 $ 1,608,784 "Army" Feature $ 15,839,142 $ 10,519,858 $ 1,672,728 $ - $ 28,259,000 "Dog" Feature $ 2,649,396 $ 2,180,106 $ 306,547 $ 1,468,170 $ 5,581,050 "Lib" Feature $ 4,512,405 $ 6,887,908 $ 1,820,000 $ 4,458,975 $ 14,863,250 2 Data set provided by FilmHedge and affiliates FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 9
  10. 10. I. THE OUTLOOK FOR PRODUCERS FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 10
  11. 11. FILM/TV PRODUCTION ANALYSIS FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 11
  12. 12. In this section we share our industry wide research and observations for Film/TV Producers. Mid-Range Boom Movies that are made for under $50M are increasingly becoming the industry norm. The movie EVERYTHING, EVERYWHERE, ALL AT ONCE had a reported budget of $25M. It went on to earn over $100M world wide . 3 Increasingly filmmakers are proving that they can do more with less as the costs of production and production equipment go down. At our company, we’ve seen an uptick in applicants of films in production in this mid-range. From 40 applicants in 2021 (about 2 a week) to 260 applicants in 2022 (about 5 a week). These are overall applicants and include productions that are often still in development (screenplay-only stage). ‘Qualified’ applicants, producers submitting films or series where pre-production has begun, principal photography has started, or where more than 50% of the 3 https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Everything-Everywhere-All-At-Once-(2022)#tab=summary FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 12
  13. 13. budget has been committed, accounted for about 20% of all applicants. Our analysis in this report was of only the qualified deal flow. We also limited the dataset to only include films that had secured distribution, giving them a more definitive release schedule. Film and TV Deals Reviewed for Study 2021 2022 Overall Applicants 40 260 Qualified Applicants 8 52 Observations: If you’re a Film/TV producer looking for the most options to finance your production, it’s better to be in the $1M to $30M range than above or below. Productions: ATL vs BTL Costs ATL BTL Total "Crimson" $ 1,116,385 $ 5,117,210 $ 7,780,000 "Stain" $ 6,317,285 $ 17,982,714 $ 27,000,000 "Jane" $ 4,648,314 $ 9,118,977 $ 16,582,490 "Slay" $ 4,442,288 $ 5,157,711 $ 9,600,000 "Dirt" $ 2,469,729 $ 2,688,489 $ 5,358,219 "Buddies" $ 560,807 $ 1,035,250 $ 1,596,057 "Lady" $ 302,976 $ 1,394,342 $ 1,608,784 "Army" $ 15,839,142 $ 10,519,858 $ 28,259,000 "Dog" $ 2,649,396 $ 2,180,106 $ 5,581,050 "Lib" $ 4,512,405 $ 6,887,908 $ 14,863,250 FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 13
  14. 14. In film production, the people responsible for creative (including the screen talent) are considered ‘above-the-line’. People behind the camera (the crew and the day to day filmmakers) are considered ‘below-the-line’. Is there noticeable cost-cutting on one side of the camera or the other? Not really. Generally, all costs are coming down as filmmakers aim to fit within the mid-range budget size. In the deals we analyzed, above-the-line costs were on average 35%, while below-the-line costs were 56%. Contingency budgets and legal costs usually made up the rest (at 6% and 4%, respectively). Observations: Producers looking to appeal to private lenders will observe that it’s much better to spend more money below-the-line than above. While expensive talent may seem like a smart move to get your film financed by star-struck equity investors, the data suggests that it’s irrelevant to the types of groups that lend to filmmakers. It’s far more important to lenders that the legal, financial, and cost structure of the film makes sense. Use this data to ensure your budgets are inline with what they expect. Contingency Budgets Contingency budgets remained flat after increasing in 2020 and 2021, likely due to new costs related to Covid-19. The average contingency in our study of productions in the $10-15M range was $700K. Roughly 5-6%. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 14
  15. 15. Our interpretation of this trend is that even though in 2022 Covid-19 doesn’t pose the same threat it once did, Producers aren’t yet comfortable taking the risk of eliminating such protections for their cast and crew completely. Observations: Producers working on budgets for their films can use this information to ensure they aren’t asking for too little or too much contingency. Debt Financing On The Rise Producers are increasingly realizing they can use debt instruments to finance production. Media industry specific ‘paper’ is increasingly being leveraged to gain access to debt. E.g many States have tax incentive programs which can then be brokered to buyers . In our study, on average more than 55% of production budgets were completed with some type of debt financing. Further analysis revealed that this number was driven mostly by films with budgets over $10M. This suggests that the more expensive a film is, the more likely incentive programs and private lenders will play a role. Observations: Smaller budget films ($10M and under) may find it harder to get private lenders into their productions. Yet, it's easier for them to cover their budgets with equity. Mid-range films ($10M to $50M) have a much more difficult road to raise all the equity they need (because they need to find larger check-writers), but have a clearer path to become attractive to Film/TV lenders. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 15
  16. 16. SPOTLIGHT ON GEORGIA FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 16
  17. 17. As the leading industry destination for Film and TV production , it's important to 4 explore Georgia filmed productions as a good proxy for what’s happening around the rest of the country. In this section we share our industry wide research and observations for Georgia-based productions. Georgia Rises as a Production Destination In only a decade Georgia has emerged as the number one destination for Film/TV producers in the world. Thanks to the State’s robust tax incentives, cost of living, Internationally accessible Airport, and other factors, the momentum in Atlanta doesn’t appear to be slowing down at all. 4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film_industry_in_Georgia_(U.S._state) FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 17
  18. 18. Georgia’s Entertainment Industry Investment Act was passed in 2005. Initially, it provided a 10% tax incentive for production companies spending money in the state. Three years later, that tax credit was increased to 20%, with an additional 10% offered to productions including a “Made in Georgia” logo in their end credits. The incentive has kickstarted a production boom in Georgia over the years bringing a number of notable productions like THE WALKING DEAD, STRANGER THINGS, and OZARK, which completed filming its final season in the state last year. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 18
  19. 19. Georgia Lensed Production Data (2018-2022) Productions Direct Spend Est. Impact5 FY2018 455 $ 2,700,000,000 $ 7,344,000,000 FY2019 399 $ 2,900,000,000 $ 7,888,000,000 FY2020 234 $ 2,200,000,000 $ 5,984,000,000 FY2021 366 $ 4,000,000,000 $ 10,880,000,000 FY2022 412 $ 4,400,000,000 $ 11,968,000,000 Production in Georgia has rebounded significantly, up 12.6% over the 2021 fiscal year and 3.3% over 2019. Georgia Film Recovers From Covid The Covid-19 pandemic crippled productions around the world in 2020, with most of the financial data from that year occurring in the Q1 and Q4 of that year. That year, Georgia productions saw a 41.35% decline. While 2021 was an improvement, 56.41% growth over 2020 (the year of the Covid-19 pandemic), productions were still down 8.3% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. What 2022’s numbers suggest is a ‘return to normalcy’ for Georgia’s production industry. This seems to be accelerating heading into 2023. 5 Derived from a multiplier of 2.72, a blend of GSU Economist Bruce Seaman’s suggested 1.87 and 3.57, a number cited by the Georgia Department of Economic Development for years. The multiplier is used to estimate the overall economic ‘ripple effect’ of the spending of individuals while working on Georgia-lensed productions. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 19
  20. 20. II. THE OUTLOOK FOR INVESTORS AND LENDERS FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 20
  21. 21. LENDER/INVESTOR ANALYSIS FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 21
  22. 22. In this section we share our industry wide research and observations for Film/TV lenders and investors. Rising Bank Rates Uncorrelated with Media Lending The interest rates that financial institutions use to charge interest to TV and Film borrowers is not the same as the rates that people get for mortgages or small business loans. Media lending interest is its own area, based on different risk factors and different security types and assurance. Generally, financial institutions view Film/TV as a riskier asset-class than other areas, so traditionally media borrowers pay a premium for capital that is well above bank rates. Because of this fact, in this report we compare these media-specific rates with bank rates. We also defined them as Media Avg., Media Standard, Media Prime, and Media High rates. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 22
  23. 23. Media finance interest rates and bank rates are uncorrelated but much can be learned from the intervals between the two. For the most part, media lending rates are insulated from the fluctuations of LIBOR, SOFR, WSJ Prime, and FED rates. However, this may change as bank rates rise. Media Lending Rates vs. Bank Rates Interest Rate 2019 2020 2021 2022 Media 15.00% 15.00% 12.50% 12.50% LIBOR 1.96% 0.33% 0.51% 5.50% PRIME 5.25% 3.25% 3.25% 6.25% SOFR 2.22% 0.36% 0.04% 1.37% FED 2.00% 0.25% 1.75% 4.00% Rising bank rates may signal that the banks that finance Film and TV are less attractive to the ‘best borrowers’, Producers working on qualified productions. This seems to be the case for the foreseeable future with economists predicting the US will remain close to recession for the foreseeable future. Why would Producers go to slow, bureaucratic banks, when the private lenders can move money faster and at similar rates? Especially if bank lending rates (for Producers) are likely going to be at, or close to, double digits. Those are rates borrowers can get from private lenders, in less time. This shift in the market perhaps explains the rise in groups providing debt to Film and TV productions. Money was cheap for a few years (2019 to 2021) but now rates are rising while industry competitiveness is driving down rates between media lending competitors. Observations: FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 23
  24. 24. As media lending becomes more common, lenders may eventually need to lower rates to remain competitive but, for now, lending rates are unaffected. Definitions: LIBOR - London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is the average interbank interest rate at which a selection of banks on the London money market are prepared to lend to one another. This chart uses the 12-month trailing average of each year from December at the close of that year. FED - The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate which banks charge one another for 1 day (overnight) lending. Prime - The prime rate is the interest rate banks charge their best customers for loans. SOFR - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities. Data Sources: https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/libor/libor.aspx http://www.fedprimerate.com/wall_street_journal_prime_rate_history.htm https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/sofr/sofr.aspx https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 24
  25. 25. Film/TV Private Lending Is Growing In addition to the rise of mid-range budget movies, the number of independent financiers funding them seems to be growing. This list of private media financiers/lenders includes: ● CityNational Bank a.k.a "The Bank of Hollywood" ● JPMorgan Media Finance ● Bank of America ● Comerica ● National Bank ● Redbird Capital ● Shamrock Capital ● Arena Capital ● Baypoint Capital ● Media Finance Capital ● Three Point Capital ● BondIt Media ● Other emerging groups Financial groups like these are funding film and TV productions in this mid-range through a mix of equity and debt. They fill a ‘missing middle’ in the market for productions too small for institutional banks to consider or where the producers are too new and unproven to give banks confidence to lend to them. Observations: The media lending landscape is becoming more crowded, mostly by investment banks, alternative debt providers, and private equity funds looking for new industries to expand yield. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 25
  26. 26. Media Lending Rates Decline As debt financing rises, and as more financial groups enter the space (or expand their existing offerings), media lending interest rates are falling. In 2020 when FilmHedge was started, interest rates on debt to Film/TV producers averaged 15%. In 2022 the average interest on debt is closer to 13%. The industry spread is +/- 7.5%. Media Finance Interest Rates Lending Rates 2019 2020 2021 2022 Avg.6 15% 15% 12.5% 12.5% Prime 7.5% 7.5% 5% 5% Standard 22.5% 22.5% 20% 20% High 30% 30% 27.5% 27.5% Why are interest rates falling as bank rates rise? Our interpretation of this data is that in an economy with no fears of a looming recession, where cash was cheap and the perception of media finance was risky, it was easier for private lenders to borrow capital and charge a premium to producers for convenience. As the sole alternative to banks, the private lenders essentially took advantage of their leverage. Observations: As of Q4 of 2022, media lenders have lost a bit of leverage. Their own cost of capital may be rising. This means it’s far more valuable to them to place their 6 Based on analysis of deals from various media lending groups from 2019-2022 FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 26
  27. 27. money with Producers who will earn returns for them, than to ‘sit’ on dry-powder. Also, more competition in media finance generally means they all have to compete for deals by undercutting the competition. This is ultimately better for Producers who (in theory) have access to more capital, from a greater variety of lenders, at lower costs. Lender Earnings from TV/Film Transactions In our analysis of closed private transactions, whether financed at FilmHedge, one of our partners, or by other parties not related to us, we’ve observed the following: Transaction Size, Per Film Avg. ROI (Net) Avg. Term >$1M 10% 11 mo $1-10M 11.5% 11 mo $10M+ 12.34% 10 mo Blended 11.28% 10.5 mo These average returns do not include any equity, mezzanine, or backend earnings and are based on net earned interest to investors, above their original principle. Investors interested in short-term, high-yield lending, earning between 1–12% in less than 12 months per transaction have discovered Film/TV lending offers a lucrative way to diversify their portfolios. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 27
  28. 28. Observations: Film/TV lending is lucrative but far more lucrative for lenders participating above $10M per transaction. The earnings at that level are higher, and take slightly less time to return yield. Comparing TV/Film Lending ROI with Real Estate Investment ROI According to the S&P 500 Index , the average annual ROI for residential real 7 estate in the United States was 10.6%, for Commercial real estate it averaged slightly lower ROI at 9.5%, while REITs averaged a higher 11.8%. ROI can vary by property type, these numbers don’t account for the differences between say multi-family and other residency types.8 8 https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/roi-on-real-estate/#profitability 7 https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 28
  29. 29. Lending Type Avg. ROI (Net) Avg. TV/Film Lender ROI 11.28% Avg. Residential RE ROI 10.6% Avg. Commercial RE ROI 9.5% Avg. REIT ROI 11.8% Comparing these rates across disparate industries, we found that Film/TV lending is comparable to the returns one might expect from a REIT. This is just a snapshot, the average returns from each asset class. Are there residential real estate lenders who return a net 15% on their deals? Yes. Are there TV/Film lenders who net 20% or more on their deals? Also, Yes. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 29
  30. 30. The takeaway for lenders here, is that media can be as lucrative and reliable. Observations: Investors looking for another net 10%+ on their money from industries they currently don’t have exposure to should consider Film/TV lending. FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 30
  31. 31. CONCLUSIONS FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 31
  32. 32. Film/TV finance is a somewhat obscure area of lending, but one that more and more financiers are discovering. It’s a great way for investors to diversify. 2023 is a good time to explore how investing in this space expand your investment portfolio. Contact If you’d like to learn more about opportunities in the space, our team at FilmHedge. Lenders and Investors interested in learning more about opportunities in the space can contact: lender@filmhedge.com TV/Film Producers can email: producer@filmhedge.com If you have a question about the data in this report or want to consult our data team, contact: data@filmhedge.com Additional Citations “Fox28: Film and TV Production Post Record Numbers for Georgia in 2019” https://fox28savannah.com/news/local/film-and-tv-production-post-record-numbers-for-georgia -in-fy-2019 “AtlantaFi: “Georgia #1 in Film Production in 2020” https://atlantafi.com/georgia-film-production/ “Georgia Made Film & TV Productions Generate $4.4B For State” https://www.georgia.org/press-release/georgia-made-film-tv-productions-generate-44b-state-y et-another-chart-topping-year#:~:text=Kemp “ROI on Real Estate” https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/roi-on-real-estate/#profitability FilmHedge Film + TV Private Finance Insights 2022 | “Media Finance in A Changing Economy” | 32

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