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Outcomes of Globalisation: Trade for All ,[object Object],Jonathon Flegg and Sarah Hauser,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object]
International Trade: A Complex Beast,[object Object]
International Trade: A Snapshot,[object Object],FACT 1: Exponential Growth in Trade,[object Object]
International Trade: A Snapshot,[object Object],FACT 2: Regional Trade over Global Trade,[object Object]
International Trade: A Snapshot,[object Object],FACT 3: Political Borders Still Matter,[object Object]
International Trade: A Snapshot,[object Object],FACT 4: Tariffs are Historically Low,[object Object]
International Trade: A Snapshot,[object Object],FACT 5: Growth in Regional Trade Agreements,[object Object]
International Trade: A Snapshot,[object Object],FACT 6: Growth in Bilateral Trade Agreements,[object Object]
International Trade: A Snapshot,[object Object],FACT 7: Rise of Manufactures over Agriculture,[object Object]
International Trade: A Snapshot,[object Object],FACT 7: Rise of Intermediate Products and Supply Chains,[object Object]
International Trade: A Shapshot,[object Object],FACT 8: Non-tradable Goods/Services Becoming Tradable,[object Object]
Drivers of the Global Trading System,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object]
Barriers to Trade,[object Object]
Bretton Woods,[object Object]
1944-71: Bretton Woods,[object Object],The 1930s demonstrated that the pursuit of nationalistic “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies can have dramatic and devastating effects (trade was approached as a zero-sum game).,[object Object],Post-WWII, the Bretton Woods System was created:,[object Object],a regulatory function by administering the rules governing currency values and convertibility;,[object Object],a financial function via the supply of supplementary liquidity to members facing balance of payment pressures;,[object Object],a consultative function by providing a forum for cooperation among governments.,[object Object],This liberal order was put in place to limit the propensity for war.,[object Object]
1944-71: Bretton Woods,[object Object],USD was the default currency for international settlements (global GDP dominated by the US).,[object Object],Created IMF and International Bank for Reconstruction (World Bank).,[object Object],GATT which later became the WTO.,[object Object],A global institutional system designed to maintain foreign exchange stability and enhance international trade.,[object Object]
Acceleration of World Trade,[object Object],Both trade and GDP fell in the late 1920s, before bottoming out in 1932. ,[object Object],After World War II, both have risen exponentially.,[object Object],Growth in trade has outstripped growth in global GDP.,[object Object],(1950 = 100. Trade and GDP: log scale),[object Object]
ISI versus EOI,[object Object],During this period many Developing Economies followed a policy of Import Substituting Industrialisation.,[object Object],ISI was characterised by: high exchange rates, support for domestic industry, and high tariff and non-tariff barriers.,[object Object],Article XVIII of GATT was incorporated to protect the right of Developing Economies to maintain tariffs and quantitative restrictions.,[object Object],Countries that opted for Export Oriented Industrialisation developed rapidly (eg. Singapore).,[object Object]
Comparative Advantage,[object Object]
Comparative Advantage,[object Object],[object Object]
5 Planes
750 TVs
20 PlanesThe USA can make 1 plane with the resources of 100 TVs. China can make 1 plane with the resources of 200 TVs.,[object Object]
Comparative Advantage,[object Object],China’s Labour Productivity Compared with US,[object Object]
What Determines Comparative Advantage?,[object Object],Within Country X there are the three main factors of production (or simply, inputs):,[object Object],LABOUR		CAPITAL		LAND,[object Object],Country X has some of these factors more abundantly than others. Developing Economies usually have more labour than capital, while Developed Economies are usually restricted by lack of labour.,[object Object]
What Determines Comparative Advantage?,[object Object],The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem builds on Ricardo’s comparative advantage. ,[object Object],Relatively abundant factors of production (land, labour and capital) determine a country’s comparative advantage and their export basket.,[object Object],The abundant factors are also the major beneficiaries of free trade.,[object Object],LeontieffParadox: The US exports labour intensive goods.,[object Object],Assumes  free movement of capital and labour within a country, and labour immobility between countries.,[object Object]
The Distributional Effects of Trade,[object Object],Different Types of Factor Endowments,[object Object]
Rogowski’s Approach,[object Object],Predicted Effects of Expanding Exposure to Trade,[object Object]
Rogowski’s Approach,[object Object],Predicted Effects of Declining Exposure to Trade,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object]
Protection to Openness? ,[object Object],Country X has industries producing 3 types of goods: import-competing, export-oriented, and non-traded. ,[object Object],Tariffs exist to primarily protect and develop import-competing firms, while export-oriented firms only benefit if competitors also liberalise.,[object Object],QUESTION: What could make Country X unilaterally liberalise tariffs?,[object Object]
Liberalisation and the Firm,[object Object],Trade liberalisation exposes domestic producers to foreign competition. This may:,[object Object],REDUCE THEIR MARKET POWER;,[object Object],REALISE ECONOMIES OF SCALE: competition forces firms to expand output to reduce average cost;,[object Object],ABSORB AND INVEST IN FOREIGN TECHNOLOGY:  to survive a firm’s productivity must be close to that of international leading firms; and,[object Object],UPGRADE HUMAN CAPITAL: productivity increases might involve a better educated workforce.,[object Object],At the micro-level, import-competing firms will expireor innovate.,[object Object]
Liberalisation and the Economy,[object Object],Now, lets look at the possible effects of liberalisation on the economy as a whole:,[object Object],REALLOCATION OF RESOURCES: removing tariffs ‘reshuffles’ capital and labour resources to more productive uses;,[object Object],AGGREGATE WELFARE INCREASES: consumers should benefit from lower prices and increased choice; and,[object Object],INCOME DIVERGENCE: producing international quality products markets may require a higher demand for skilled labour in relation to that of unskilled labour.,[object Object]
Short-term verses Long-term,[object Object],GAIN,[object Object],PAIN,[object Object]
Mechanisms Within Liberalisation,[object Object],To understand the effects of liberalisation, we must look very closely at the mechanisms at play:,[object Object],Liberalisation Episodes,[object Object],Chile	1974-79 (Pavcnik 2002),[object Object],India 1991  (Aghion et al 2005),[object Object],Mexico 1994 (Verhoogen 2008),[object Object],Industrial Competition,[object Object],China and Europe (Bloomet al2008),[object Object]
Chile 1974-79,[object Object],Under General Pinochet, Chile experienced a massive episode of trade liberalization and privatisation.,[object Object],MECHANISMS: ,[object Object],Exit of unproductive firms.,[object Object],Improved productivity among import-competing firms.,[object Object],“Overall, aggregate productivity has increased by 19% over 7 years: 6.6% due to increased productivity within plants, and 12.7% due to the reallocation of resources from less to more efficient plants.”,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mexico 1994,[object Object],In the years following the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico’s infamous “Peso Crisis” was a currency shock that dramatically opened export opportunities to the American market.,[object Object],MECHANISMS: ,[object Object],Quality Upgrading: assumes manufactures for export (particularly those for  Developed Countries) must be of greater quality and meet higher standards.,[object Object],An increase in exports compared with the overall manufacturing base, will increase the relative demand for highly skilled workers.,[object Object],“Only the most productive plants enter the export market, and Southern exporters produce higher-quality goods for export than for the domestic market, to appeal to richer Northern consumers. An exchange-rate devaluation leads more-productive Southern plants to increase exports, upgrade quality, and raise wages relative to less-productive plants within the same industry, increasing within-industry wage dispersion.”,[object Object],- Verhoogen 2008,[object Object]
China and Europe,[object Object],A rigorous debate is going on in Developed Economies about the extent to which trade with China is causing increased wage inequality.,[object Object],MECHANISMS:,[object Object],European industries exposed to Chinese imports adopt more advanced technology and engage in greater innovation than those lacking Chinese competition.,[object Object],This differential effect of trade could be a case of wage inequality.,[object Object],“We  find that Chinese import  competition is associated with a significant increase in the adoption of new technology (measured by  usage of information technology) and the generation of innovation (measured by patenting intensity).  We also find that exposure to trade with China significantly increases the probability of establishment  exit and reduces employment growth, but this effect is significant only for low-tech firms.”,[object Object],- Bloom 2008,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object]
Fall in Price of Communications,[object Object]
Trade in Services,[object Object],Since 1980, the acceleration in globalisation has been driven by growth of trade in services.,[object Object],Developed Economies presumed they had a comparative advantage in human-capital intensive services, compared with manufacturing.,[object Object],From a negligible base, trade in services now account for 20% of global trade.,[object Object]
GATS,[object Object],The General Agreement on Trade in Services came into force in 1995 during the Uruguay Round. It applies to 4 modes of supply:,[object Object]
Obligations under GATS,[object Object]
GATS’s Coverage,[object Object],All services except: ,[object Object],“services supplied in the exercise of governmental authority”. For example, social security schemes, health and education services.,[object Object],Air Transport Services.,[object Object],Covers virtually all capital and labour movements in services.,[object Object]
Advocates of GATS,[object Object],Effectively deals with incorporating this rapidly growing trade sector into the global multilateral trade framework. ,[object Object],Supports the diffusion of advanced technology and knowledge, including organisational capacity, across borders.,[object Object],Greater transparency and predictability in commercial activity and financial transactions.,[object Object],Welfare gains and enhanced economic growth.,[object Object],Developing Economies are able to make fewer specific commitments than Developed Economies (Article XIX).,[object Object]
Protectionist Backlash,[object Object]
Critics of GATS,[object Object],Opposed strongly in 1995 by Developing Economies led by Brazil and India.,[object Object],Movement of capital and labour across borders goes beyond the mandate of trade agreements.,[object Object],Capital and labour regulations should be considered a matter of national sovereignty.,[object Object],Mode 4 (presence of natural persons) has been almost exclusively applied to high-level personnel, leading to the charge from discrimination against Developing Economies (Winters 2003).,[object Object],Discriminatory policies on services are a lot more difficult to identify than tariff barriers (eg. labour legislation, tax regimes, and licensing). ,[object Object]
Outline,[object Object]
Key Take-Aways,[object Object],Trade historically has been driven by the interplay of technology, institutions and policies.,[object Object],While trade in goods and services has grown dramatically, obstacles still exist to a perfectly integrated market. ,[object Object],Liberalising trade generally has a positive effect on aggregate economic growth after the initial shock.,[object Object],The effect of trade liberalisation on inequality is ambiguous and depends primarily on a number of domestic  characteristics, such as institutionsand abundant factors.,[object Object],The high percentage of trade between Developed Economies is an overhang of the anti-trade policies enacted by Developing Economies and their permissiveness under GATT (Article XVIII). ,[object Object],GATS goes radically beyond the traditional notion of trade, to allow a large degree of free movement in labour and capital. ,[object Object]
Questions?,[object Object]
Bibliography,[object Object],Aghion, P., R. Burgess, S. Redding and F. Zilibotti,[object Object],	2005. “The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: 	Evidence from Dismantling the License Raj in 	India”. 	(http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/agh	ion/fi	les/Unequal_Effects.pdf).,[object Object],Bloom, N., M. Draca, and J. Van Reenen.,[object Object],2009. “Trade Induced Technical Change: The Impact 	of Chinese Imports on Innovation, Diffusion and 	Productivity”, mimeo, Stanford University.,[object Object],Irwin, D. A.		,[object Object],2005. Free Trade Under Fire. Princeton: Princeton 	University Press.,[object Object]
Bibliography,[object Object],Krugman, P. R. and M. Obstfeld,[object Object],2006. International Economics: Theory and Policy. 	Pearson International: Boston.,[object Object],Pavcnik, N.       	,[object Object],2002. “Trade Liberalization, Exit, and 		Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean 	Plants”. Review of Economic Studies69(1): 245-76.,[object Object],Srinivasan, T.N. ,[object Object],2005. "Nondiscriminationin GATT/WTO: Was 	There 	Anything to Begin with and Is There Anything Left?" World Trade Review 4(1).,[object Object]

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Outcomes of Globalisation: Trade for All

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Notas do Editor

  1. http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2010_e/its10_charts_e.htm
  2. This system international monetary cooperation was for the first time attempted on a permanent and institutional basis. The system respects the principle of national sovereignty while committing members to collective responsibility. It provides a mechanism for inter-governmental consultation.
  3. This system international monetary cooperation was for the first time attempted on a permanent and institutional basis. The system respects the principle of national sovereignty while committing members to collective responsibility. It provides a mechanism for inter-governmental consultation.
  4. This system international monetary cooperation was for the first time attempted on a permanent and institutional basis. The system respects the principle of national sovereignty while committing members to collective responsibility. It provides a mechanism for inter-governmental consultation.
  5. This system international monetary cooperation was for the first time attempted on a permanent and institutional basis. The system respects the principle of national sovereignty while committing members to collective responsibility. It provides a mechanism for inter-governmental consultation.
  6. 1817 book, On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, David Ricardo used the example of Portugal and England's trading of wine and cloth to illustrate the benefits of specialization and trade. His writing served as the basis for the principle of comparative advantage
  7. 1817 book, On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, David Ricardo used the example of Portugal and England's trading of wine and cloth to illustrate the benefits of specialization and trade. His writing served as the basis for the principle of comparative advantage
  8. The Stolper-Samuelson theorem states that an increase in the relative price of one of the two goods raises the real return of the factor used intensively in producing that good and lowers the real return of the other factor.
  9. 3 main assumptions1. Beneficiaries of a change will try to continue and accelerate it, victims will endeavour to retard or stop it.2. Those who enjoy a sudden increase in income will thereby be enabled to expand their political influence as well.3. As the means for a particular political preference increase, the likelihood grows that political entrepreneurs will devise mechanisms that can surmount the obstacles to collective action.
  10. Source: Rogowski:Commerce and Coalitions – How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments
  11. Reallocation of resources assumes no barriers to firm exit (irreversibility of investment).
  12. The critiques of the macro work by influential economists (above) combined with the new theoretical insights into micro mechanisms propelled empirical trade research away from macro studies and towards more sector, industry, and plant-level studies that investigate the effects of trade policy at a more micro-economic level of analysis. In other words, while the macro level research focused on a general ‘reduced form’ relationship between openness and growth, leaving the underlying mechanisms somewhat (or completely) vague, these micro studies specifically search for ‘smoking gun’ evidence of the actual mechanisms through which openness affects firms’ decisions and outcomes (and thus, ultimately, aggregate growth).
  13. Eliminated most of its non-tariff barriers and reduced tariff barriers from 100% (and more) to uniform 10% ad valorem.
  14. The GATS was inspired by essentially the same objectives as its counterpart in merchandise trade, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT): All WTO member countries are also GATS members.All taken from: http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/gatsqa_e.htm
  15. Commitments on market access and national treatment    Individual countries’ commitments to open markets in specific sectors — and how open those markets will be — are the outcome of negotiations. The commitments appear in “schedules” that list the sectors being opened, the extent of market access being given in those sectors (e.g. whether there are any restrictions on foreign ownership), and any limitations on national treatment (whether some rights granted to local companies will not be granted to foreign companies). So, for example, if a government commits itself to allow foreign banks to operate in its domestic market, that is a market-access commitment. And if the government limits the number of licences it will issue, then that is a market-access limitation. If it also says foreign banks are only allowed one branch while domestic banks are allowed numerous branches, that is an exception to the national treatment principle.Transparency    GATS says governments must publish all relevant laws and regulations, and set up enquiry points within their bureaucracies. Foreign companies and governments can then use these inquiry points to obtain information about regulations in any service sector. And they have to notify the WTO of any changes in regulations that apply to the services that come under specific commitments.
  16. Economic performanceDevelopmentConsumer savings Faster innovation Greater transparency and predictability Technology transfer
  17. STOP the GATS attack image from http://www.citizen.org/trade/wto/gats/Tourism: http://www.equitabletourism.org/stage/tourism_details.php?AID=82
  18. From http://www.citizen.org/trade/wto/gats/
  19. From http://www.citizen.org/trade/wto/gats/