Presentation from the WCCA 2011 conference in Brisbane, Australia.

1. Adapting to change: more realistic quantification of impacts
and better informed adaptation alternatives
Daniel Rodriguez, Peter deVoil, Brendan Power, Howard Cox

2. Focus of the work
Increase our (both researchers and the farming
community) understanding (...we are all learning...) on
what is changing (climate) and what are the likely
consequences if those changes would persist;
Work with our farmers and agronomists towards
reducing their exposure to change (now and the next 5-
10 years), by increasing our understanding on what
farming systems are more profitable and less risky

3. Components of adaptation
Outcomes ADAPTEDNESS
Systems disturbances
INCREMENTAL TRANSFORMATION
Adaptation
SYSTEMS Generates a new social-
processes ecological systems
ADJUSTMENTS
System RESILIENCE
characteristics Capacity to absorb change and perform
After Nelson et al., 2007

4. Resilient farming systems by design
• (Management) Systems that are more opportunistic-
flexible-plastic versus systems that are more rigid or
calendar driven
• Systems that can change function e.g. systems that
produce grain / fibre / meat
• Systems that can change scale or intensity e.g. irrigated
• Systems that are more diverse versus systems that are
more like monocultures / products

5. Case studies
Emerald, rainfed cropping
Roma, grain & graze
Dalby, cotton-grains
.
Goondiwindi, rainfed cropping

6. Case studies
Rainfed Whe1,2,.. C Rainfed
SF SF
cropping cropping
(plastic) S 1,2,..
W
1,2,..
W1,2,.. (rigid)
Sorg1,2,.. Fallow Maize
SF SF
WF C
WF
Chick S
1,2,..
Cropping cycle
Maize
Chickpea Fallow Wheat
Mixed grain - Irrigated Fallow
Fallow
Sorg
grazing Buffel
Grazing cycle
cropping
grass Forage
oats Soy
Wheat
Fallow Leucaena Cotton
Forage Mung
sorghum Fallow

7. The APSFarm model
Whole farm configuration of the APSIM model
Simulates the impacts (i.e.
biophysical, economic, environmental) of alternative
allocations of limited resources (e.g.
land, labour, time, irrigation water, livestock, machinery, and
finance), at the whole farm level.
System disturbance
2030
Rodriguez et al., 2011; Power et al., 2011 A1FI and A2, MRI-GCM232 and MIROC-H

8. Sensitivity analysis

9. Sensitivity analysis
• Less land to cropping
Climatology • More forages fewer pastures
A1FI 2030
MRI-GCM232

10. Allocation of resources

11. Conclusions
• Our case study farmers proved to be very good operators
• Percent reductions on farm profit can easily exceed
percent changes on individual crop yields (not shown)
• Farms and farmers already operating on the efficiency
frontier, would have fewer “easier” options to adapt
• More transformational changes will need to be explored
• Impact assessments and the identification of opportunities
for adaptation to climate change should (also) be
conducted at the whole farm level

12. Come to our SIMLESA workshops
Thank you