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Data vs Hunch - Beyond Lecture at Hyper Island 2015

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How do you strike a balance between data and creative hunch in a digital marketing world obsessed with metrics and ROI? Slides from a session with the Hyper Island Digital Data Strategy class of 2015, at the school's Stockholm campus.

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Data vs Hunch - Beyond Lecture at Hyper Island 2015

  1. 1. Data vs. Hunch Hyper Island Stockholm, 2015
  2. 2. It used to be really simple…..
  3. 3. HR Consultants brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning R&D product development sales PR agencies Accountants & Auditors Management Consultants Branding Agencies Ad Agencies Corporate Training Consultants Sales Consultants Product design & innovation consultancies Direct Marketing Agencies Direct Marketing Agencies 25 years ago the boundaries were clear
  4. 4. brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning R&D product development Brand Website Banner Ads And then web 1.0 came along….. sales E-Commerce SEM
  5. 5. brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning R&D product development sales Brand Website Display Ads Social E-Commerce SEM And then web 2.0
  6. 6. E-Recruiting E-Learning brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning R&D product development sales Digital Supply Chains Social analytics / big data E-learning E-commerce SEM Digital product design & testing and then everything became digital Digital Transformation / Change Management Brand Website Display Ads Video Marketing Mobile Marketing Social Earned Media “Fun” Apps “Serious” Apps Digital service design Crowdsourcing Co-Creation
  7. 7. Branding PR Management Consultancies Data Analytics Design Social Advertising Digital Accenture buying Fjord W+K aces social with Old Spice, Three et al. WCG buying predictive analytics firm WPP buying AKQA PR + Data Analytics DigitalAdvertising + Advertising + Social +Management Consultancies Service Design So we all started getting into each others’ business Just a few examples…..
  8. 8. Digital is no longer a department
  9. 9. And with digital pervasiveness comes some challenges for marketers…..
  10. 10. Marketing has become a battle against metrics…
  11. 11. Because with digital came the rise of ever- increasing trackability Accountability through ROI became a critical component in justifying and making digital marketing spend as efficient as possible…. CTRs, conversion rates, UVs, shares, followers, downloads, A/B testing, attribution modelling, etc. etc...
  12. 12. Marketing isn't used to talking about the “bottom line”
  13. 13. So how are we doing?
  14. 14. You’re more likely to survive
 a plane crash than click on a banner advert... Source: Solve Media
  15. 15. ..and there’s only a 
 1 in 1,000,000 chance of someone viewing your YouTube video... Source: wistia.com
  16. 16. 89% of TV ads not even noticed or remembered while 7% are remembered negatively... Source: Dave Trott, regarding UK market
  17. 17. Is there anyone out there? • 60 - 70% of marketing content goes completely unused (Sirius Decisions) • 30% of Microsoft’s 10MM pieces of content has never been visited (company audit) • We are exposed to ~5,000 marketing messages a day and a social link has a half-life of 3 hours (various & Bitly)
  18. 18. Does anyone care? • Average human attention span in 2000 was 12 seconds. • Average human attention span in 2013 was 8 seconds. • Average attention span of a goldfish is 9 seconds
  19. 19. So can data solve this, eliminating the waste by teaching us what works?
  20. 20. 0 Exabytes 500 Exabytes 1000 Exabytes 1500 Exabytes 2017Dawn of Civilisation - 2003 We have gone from data scarcity to data abundance Amount of data created From Dawn of Civilisation to 2003 2017
  21. 21. And the ‘Internet Of Things’ means we’ve just started, leading us down the path to ‘perfect real-time knowledge’ 200 million connected devices in 2000 By 2020 there will be 50 Billion things 
 exchanging 40,000,000,000 terabytes of data
  22. 22. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Algorithms / Data Growth Exponential Digital Combinational Mobile / IOE / Metcalfe’s Law APIs / Web Services Credit: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, MIT The 1st machine age: muscle power was automated The 2nd machine age: cognitive powers are being automated
  23. 23. So will the marketing of the future be data-driven, automated, programmatic, real-time, predictive, and hyper- personalised?
  24. 24. Leading some marketers to question...
  25. 25. Where is the room for creativity in marketing today, when data is all the boardroom cares about?
  26. 26. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential Don’t forget that a world that is becoming obsessed with data is still run by emotions
  27. 27. © Copyright 2013 Beyond. All rights reserved. Private and Confidential price = what the market wants to pay book value = what accountants think it’s worth market price to book value - s&p 500 - 1979-2011 When emotions that drive behaviour change, algorithms fail
  28. 28. Four tips for finding a balance between data & creativity
  29. 29. 1. Understand what data is and isn’t good for
  30. 30. Too often people look for data to provide the “silver bullet” insight, and end up frustrated by lack of answers. We’re taught that math equals fact, and that to measure something is to understand it. But the reality is data is a lot more subjective than we think. There are no silver bullets
  31. 31. With more data, we actually get more uncertainty “With more data, you get more spurious correlations, more false positives, and erroneous answers. If the quantity of information is increasing by 2.5 quintillion bytes per day, the amount of useful information almost certainly isn't. Most of it is just noise, and the noise is increasing faster than the signal.” Nate Silver, The Noise & the Signal
  32. 32. Use data to define the problem, not give you the answer "If I had one hour to save the world I would spend fifty-five minutes defining the problem and only five minutes finding the solution"
  33. 33. 2. Use different data sets to look at the problem through as many lenses as possible 473683173
  34. 34. In a famous Indian fable, a group of blind men touch an elephant to learn what it is like. Each one feels a different part, but only one part, such as the leg or the tusk. They then compare notes and learn that they are in complete disagreement. Relying only on the data your organisation is accustomed to collect blinds you to truths outside of your experience. Don’t just rely on the data you can easily get
  35. 35. Brand insights Market/category Insight Consumer insights Digital/Tech insights Toolbox: Social listening Web analytics Focus groups Behavioural & attitudinal surveys User observation Ethnographic research Toolbox: Competitor analysis Financial analysis Market sizing & fundamentals Trends & forecasts Toolbox: Digital value creation analysis Channel and touchpoint diagnostics/ optimisation - search, social, content, UX Technology strategy and forecasts Data strategy Toolbox: Positioning analysis Brand architecture analysis Brand perception analysis Get a good tool box
  36. 36. Mix your quant and qual, your direct and indirect
  37. 37. 3. Be very clear about where data ends and strategy begins
  38. 38. Data shows us the world as it is, not how it could be
  39. 39. Idea Management Strategy Research & Analytics Information & Product Design Strategy works from a basis of objective data but in order to achieve previously unmet goals it must speculate into the subjective. What we will createWhat it is What can be Objective Subjective
  40. 40. “The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do” Michael Porter Focus Questions Most of the time there will be multiple insights that can be drawn from the data. Strategy is all about choosing the path that is most likely to fulfil your goal, with the resources you have available. That’s different from choosing the most interesting insight.
  41. 41. 4. Don’t feel guilty for taking a creative leap beyond the data
  42. 42. “The origins of an insight are usually to be found in numbers. That's how we know an insight to be more than airy whim… But, except to the supernaturally numerate, numbers seldom sing spontaneously… [The] strategist who comes up with an immaculate and scrupulously accurate relief map of the brand and its market - and absolutely nothing else - will not be greatly loved by the creative group… By definition, a good creative brief contains a bold hypothesis. To generate hypotheses you need to speculate: you need to progress from the known to the unknown. But you cannot paint the future in the colours of the past. Other people's imaginations need to be engaged…” Jeremy Bullmore Speculate with hypotheses Insights
  43. 43. FACT / DATA: Statistics show that 90% of people feed their pets twice a day OBSERVATION: They tend to feed them at breakfast and dinner INSIGHT: People feel guilty eating in front of their pets FOCUS QUESTION: How might we show moments where owners “give in” to their pets? How are they different Insights
  44. 44. Understand what drives behaviour An insight seeks to understand 'the why' rather than 'the what'. Why do people think the way they think or do the things they do...... as opposed to what they actually end up doing. Insights
  45. 45. Focus Questions Focus questions join together the insights and the brief. They summarise the strategy in the form of a question that the creative team can answer through ideation. Feeding the creative team with the synthesis of the problem
  46. 46. Focus Questions Why is a Good Focus Question Like a Refrigerator? Because the moment you look into it, a light comes on. Focus questions lead to inspiration and interaction. Your mind should start filling with possibilities as soon as you read them.
  47. 47. Focus Questions How can a focus question say so much with so little? Through the understanding of the feelings your audience associate to certain words. Words carry strong implicit meaning and, as such, play a major role in how we perceive a problem. Through the use of metaphors, analogies and similes that can re-phrase the core tension you have found in your insight. Through using unexpected associations between contrasting or disparate words or ideas. By avoiding the direct or explicit and using creativity to phrase the problem in an inspiring way.
  48. 48. Focus Questions • The brief phrased as a question. • A collection of stats and data from your analytics A Focus Question is NOT
  49. 49. Strategy Giving creative a framework “Creativity loves constraints. It’s why pictures have frames and sonnets have fourteen lines. It’s why Henry Ford set pricing for his cars so low, because he knew that ‘We make more discoveries concerning manufacturing and selling under this forced method than by any other leisurely investigation’.” Eric Schmidt
  50. 50. Strategy Giving creative a framework “When forced to work within a strict framework, the imagination is taxed to its upmost and will produce its richest ideas. Given total freedom the work is likely to sprawl” T.S. Eliot
  51. 51. Now you have a strategic framework and some potent focus questions, what’s the best way to harness a lot of ideas?
  52. 52. Clients are grappling with the pace at which technology changes and we need to adapt our creative process to meet the new challenges clients throw at us
  53. 53. Challenge 1: The work is more complicated than ever
  54. 54. E-Recruiting E-Learning brand HR pr finance operations strategy marketing learning R&D product development sales Digital Supply Chains Social analytics / big data E-learning E-commerce SEM Digital product design & testing Remember how many types of briefs we are trying to solve with digital now Digital Transformation / Change Management “Fun” Apps “Serious” Apps Digital service design Crowdsourcing Co-Creation Brand Website Display Ads Video Marketing Mobile Marketing Social Earned Media
  55. 55. Challenge 2: New technologies requiring new agency skill-sets are appearing every day.
  56. 56. So how do you meet the needs of an ever more complex tech / marketing lanscape?
  57. 57. Rather than limiting creative thinking and idea generation to a creative department
  58. 58. Form custom cross-disciplined creative teams from across the agency for each brief who have a variety of skills, perspectives and experience.
  59. 59. Use ideation methods that enable everyone to contribute
  60. 60. Idea Management Make sure the team follows these creative principles: Think big & encourage wild ideas Get all your ideas out Quantity is a condition for quality Postpone critical thinking and judgement One conversation at a time Build on each other ideas by saying yes and…
  61. 61. At Beyond we use a process called Applied Creativity
  62. 62. We define Applied Creativity as a data driven process that enables cross-discipline collaboration resulting in more informed creative output.
  63. 63. What are the benefits of taking this approach?
  64. 64. Benefit 1: Different brains working together can tackle problems from every angle
  65. 65. Benefit 2: New ideas often come from combining ideas from different disciplines in orginal combinations
  66. 66. Benefit 3: When all the disciplines are involved in conceiving the ideas, they can implement them quicker
  67. 67. Benefit 4: This approach liberates and makes the most of your talent.
  68. 68. Thanks! Nils Mork-Ulnes 
 Head of Strategy nils@bynd.com Alex Hunting 
 Strategist alex@bynd.com Charlie Lyons
 GM, London charlie@bynd.com