A chronology in pictures and charts of selected developments in climate, energy, tech and the future of civilisation

A chronology in pictures and charts
of selected developments
in climate, energy, tech
and the future of civilisation
2018 Q4

7th Jan
2016
1st Oct
2018
China’s economy is decelerating, prompting Beijing to
pare back environmental policies to boost GDP.
Beijing axes coal and steel production curbs as
Trump’s trade war impacts economy

7th Jan
2016
2nd Oct
2018
PM Lars Lokke Rasmussen says it “will be hard to achieve. But that’s
exactly why we need to try.” National goal is to be fossil-free by 2050.
Denmark to set tightest national ban on new
petrol and diesel cars: from 2030

7th Jan
2016
2nd Oct
2018
“We don’t discuss the question anymore of, Is
there climate change”: Munich Re
1st in WSJ “Price of Climate” series: “Changing risk probabilities may
make some areas uninsurable altogether, or at least so risky the cost
would be prohibitively expensive for insurance buyers, executives say.”

7th Jan
2016
2nd Oct
2018
So the Climate Bonds Initiative reports in its annual state of market
report. USA, China & France are top 3 for labelled green bond issuance.
$1.45 trillion of labelled green bonds and climate-
aligned bonds leaves “headroom for huge growth”

7th Jan
2016
3rd Oct
2018
Median government debt-GDP ratio stands at 52%, up from 36% before
the 2008 crisis. Rising inequality and hoarding make a crash more likely.
With world debt well above 2008 levels, world
economy is at risk of another financial crash: IMF

7th Jan
2016
7th Oct
2018
Landmark UN scientists’ report confirms ruinous
contrast between 1.5˚C & 2˚C global warming
IPCC concludes that for 1.5˚C limit, emissions must be cut from 2010
levels by 45% by 2030, and to net zero by 2050 (20% and 2075 for 2˚C).
This requires reconfiguring of the human world within a generation.

7th Jan
2016
7th Oct
2018
The IPCC 1.5˚C emissions trajectory entails systems
transitions that are “unprecedented in scale….”
“In 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot, renewables are
projected to supply 70–85% of electricity in 2050 (high confidence).”
Net global CO2 emission pathway
1980 20202000 2040 2060 2080 2100
BilliontonnesofCO2peryear
“…but not necessarily
in terms of speed, and
imply deep emissions
reductions in all
sectors, a wide
portfolio of mitigation
options and a
significant upscaling of
investments in those
options.”
42
Budget: 580 GtC02
for a 50% chance
of limiting global
mean surface air
temperature
to 1.5˚C

7th Jan
2016
9th Oct
2018
“Big Oil Could Reap Windfall on Fossil Fuel Limits,
Goldman Says”
The 7 biggest oil companies could cut carbon emissions 20% by 2030,
even as returns on the biggest oil and gas projects rise by c.5%, the bank
tells clients. But a “Big Oil to Big Energy” pivot is also essential.

7th Jan
2016
9th Oct
2018
CEO says Shell will not “go soft” on oil & gas and
mass reforestation needed for 1.5˚C target
Van Buerden insists gas has a key role to play in a 1.5˚C world.
“You can have an endless discussion about semantics. Is it a
transition role, a destination role? In the end it is a bit of both.”

7th Jan
2016
9th Oct
2018
Dutch appeals court upholds landmark climate
change ruling: government must accelerate cuts
Court backs citizens case that the crisis demands cuts of at least 25% by
2020 from 1990 levels, not the 17% cut the government targets.

7th Jan
2016
9th Oct
2018
Solarcentury sells 80% stake in 300 MW Spanish
subsidy-free solar farm, one of Europe’s largest
Frans van den Heuvel: “Talayuela is concrete evidence of Solarcentury’s
transition to a fully integrated platform that develops, builds and
operates solar and storage assets.”
Solarcentury solar farm, Panama

7th Jan
2016
10th Oct
2018
Huge reduction in meat-eating “essential” if the
world is to avoid climate breakdown
So concludes the most comprehensive survey of the food system yet:
90% less beef consumption in western world, 5x more beans & pulses.

7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2018
Carbon Tracker satellite analysis shows 40% of
Chinese coal fleet is cash-flow negative in 2018…
…owing to high fuel costs (capacity weighted average of $85/t), and 95%
cash-flow negative by 2040, due to C pricing & air pollution regulation.

7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2018
It will be cheaper for China to build new onshore
wind than operate coal by 2021, & solar PV by 2025
So Carbon Tracker concludes in its latest report. Chinese coal power
owners can avoid losing $390 bn by retiring the operating fleet in a
manner consistent with the Paris Agreement.

7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2018
Coal has risen from ashes of 2013, as price has
risen, to be top earning Australian export
And the government says that acting on the IPCC report would be
“irresponsible.” Glencore and BHP Billiton are among those cashing in.

7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2018
Hurricane Michael: Category 4 storm hits Florida for
the 1st time ever, flattening whole neighbourhoods
This time wind is the problem: up to 155 mph, 5 mph < Category 5.
Governor Rick Scott, climate denier: “unimaginable devastation.”

7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2018
“Dirty capital: London’s financial flows
are polluted by laundered money”
The National Crime Agency says international money rinsed through
British banks each year is “many hundreds of billions of pounds”.

7th Jan
2016
12th Oct
2018
Saudi government hit squad murdered dissident
Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey, strong evidence suggests
There is a trend of increasing state-induced abduction and murder.
“Why do more and more governments think they can get away with
murder”, Simon Tysdall asks. Lack of respect for international law.

7th Jan
2016
13th Oct
2018
Businesses and organisations withdraw en masse
from Saudi showcase summit, citing Khashoggi case
They include NYT, FT, CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, World Bank, Virgin, &
even Uber – despite having Saudi sovereign wealth fund as an investor.

7th Jan
2016
13th Oct
2018
Google to shut down Google+ after failing to
disclose massive user data leak
This was on the scale of the one that landed Zuckerberg in Congress.
According to a memo leaked to the WSJ, the reason for the cover up was
the risk of the CEO having to testify, & “immediate regulatory interest.”
A “facebook killer” killed off

7th Jan
2016
14th Oct
2018
Senior Tory MP protests lack of police investigation
into breakages of law by 3 pro-Brexit campaigns
Damian Collins: “What is our law worth if the police won’t act?” Plus
“absurd” that the UK has no enquiry into Russian interference in the
referendum like Mueller’s on the their interference in the US election.

7th Jan
2016
15th Oct
2018
Fracking allowed once again in UK after 7 year
abeyance following failure of last minute injunction
Energy Minister
Claire Perry:
Those who
oppose fracking
are peddling “wild
myths”

7th Jan
2016
15th Oct
2018
Banks will not be forced to reveal climate change
risks they face, Bank of England decides
New Economics Foundation: “We need to do much more than simply
tinker around the edges with incremental adjustments. …We will need
radical disruptive reforms that help reshape finance.”

7th Jan
2016
15th Oct
2018
EU plans to offer billions in co-funding to companies
willing to build electric battery plants in Europe
c. 80% of the world’s existing and planned battery production capacity is
in Asia, 69% in China alone. The US is at 15% and the EU at under 4%.

7th Jan
2016
15th Oct
2018
Jeff Bezos: “It doesn’t make any sense to me” for
tech companies to eschew work with the Pentagon
“I like this country. I know everybody is very conflicted about the current
politics and so on,” he tells Wired, but “this country is a gem.”

7th Jan
2016
16th Oct
2018
BBC Radio airs an unprecedented critique of the UK
government’s undermining of most renewables
File on 4 uses a wide range of interviewees across the full span of
renewables industries devastated by preference for nuclear & shale gas.
Fuelling the Future? Does Britain’s
green energy strategy stack up?

7th Jan
2016
16th Oct
2018
Scottish Power (Iberdrola) shifts to 100% wind
generation after £700m sale of gas plants to Drax
The company will also develop a “sizeable” solar portfolio, aiming to
complement wind output. Reasons given by CEO: economics ….& IPCC.

7th Jan
2016
16th Oct
2018
US-China tensions soar: we are in a “new cold war”
as China goes on offense in face of Trump bellicosity
Including dangerous manoeuvres by Chinese and US warships in South
China Sea, and a major return by China to cyberwar.
Fuelling the Future? Does Britain’s
green energy strategy stack up?
Confrontation between the USS Decatur and
a Chinese navy warship, Sept 2018

7th Jan
2016
17th Oct
2018
Bank of England raises alarm over global surge in
high-risk lending to already heavily-indebted firms
The global leveraged loan market (to firms with debts >4x earnings) is
larger than – and growing as quickly as – the US sub-prime mortgage
market in 2006. US alone >doubled since 2010 to >$1 trillion.

7th Jan
2016
17th Oct
2018
UK fracking protesters walk free after court quashes
their “manifestly excessive” 16 month sentences
Original trial judge’s father and sister run a company supplying Centrica,
a major investor in fracking.

7th Jan
2016
17th Oct
2018
God, Man, Tech and Climate: Hans Joachim
Schellnhuber paints a picture for the Club of Rome
Man will create cyborgs of unimaginable power by marrying quantum
computers with AI. The machines will be able to survive in a world that
fails to go zero carbon. Even if Man can survive, they won’t need him….

7th Jan
2016
18th Oct
2018
Swedish oil bosses to be charged with aggravated
crimes against humanity for ops in South Sudan
Prosecutors allege that during oil exploration in the 1990s Lundin
Petroleum caused the deaths of thousands and the enforced migration
of almost 200,000, plus much rape, torture and murder.
Lundin Petroleum CEO Alex Schneiter,
(left) and chairman Ian Lundin

7th Jan
2016
Oct
2018
Boston Dynamics films a video of its SpotMini
robot, dancing (well) ….and due on sale in 2019
Now imagine it with poison fangs and facial recognition software. Then
imagine thousands roaming the streets seeking (deemed) miscreants.

7th Jan
2016
18th Oct
2018
Shell bets on US shale for “balance” while it waits
for deepwater production to come onstream
$2bn and $3bn p.a. to be allocated to shale, c. 10 % of the company’s
annual capex until 2020, by when it expects doubled production.

7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2018
Schlumberger chief warns US shale oil production
will drop as observed well-decline rates rise.
What he doesn't address is how his clients are going to service their
mountainous debts if they can't hold production up.

7th Jan
2016
18th Oct
2018
Dramatic slowdown in internet access, and yet
more than half the world is not online
15 countries have <10% have access, 50 <30%. Facebook’s “Free Basics”
programme has added 100m. Many use Facebook but not the internet.

7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2018
Saudi Twitter army launches blizzard defence of
beleaguered leader after Khashoggi disappearance
Researchers track a web of loyalist accounts - real people and bots.
1.1 m uses of Arabic hashtag “We all trust in Mohammed bin Salman”.

IEA’s Efficient World Scenario finds huge cost-
effective global energy-efficiency potential
7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2018
Scenario calculates effect if if all countries maximised all available
cost-effective efficiency potential between now and 2040.
Transport energy
demand could stay
flat even with a
doubling of activity
We could have 60% more building
space in 2040 for no additional
energy use
Industry could provide nearly twice as
much value per unit of energy in 2040
….”Not bad for an invisible fuel.”

7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2018
Poll shows British public supports EU regulation to
pay solar generators a fair market rate for export
71% want the UK government to reflect proposed new EU law
protecting prosumers ….69% if Leavers only counted.

7th Jan
2016
24th Oct
2018
Exxon sued by New York State for fraud:
misleading investors about climate-change risk
Accusation after years of investigation: new projects were based on
forecasts for costs associated with climate change that were lower than
those it told investors it was using, lowering costs by billions of dollars.
Barbara Underwood,
NY State Attorney
General

7th Jan
2016
26th Oct
2018
Canada passes a carbon tax, starting at a modest
$20/tonne, but giving most Canadians more money
The Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act is a revenue-neutral carbon
tax starting in 2019, fulfilling a campaign pledge the PM made in 2015.

7th Jan
2016
26th Oct
2018
World’s billionaires became richest ever, 20% up in
2017, UBS reports: membership up by 179 to 2,158
They grew their combined wealth by $1.4tn to $8.9tn (£6.9tn), more
than the GDP of Spain or Australia. 701 are >70 & the 30 richest of these
have $1 tn. Signatories of Gates’s Giving Pledge (50% in lifetime): c.180.
Barbara Underwood,
NY State Attorney
General

7th Jan
2016
26th Oct
2018
Little more than a week after restart, fracking at
Lancashire site paused after 18th seismic tremor
The Oil & Gas Authority requires fracking to stop if any seismic activity
>0.5 is detected. This one was 0.8. The 2011 tremor was 2.3.

7th Jan
2016
26th Oct
2018
Alphabet’s Waymo becomes first self-driving car
developer to launch commercial services
The company begins charging passengers in the suburbs of Phoenix,
Arizona, where pilots have been running since 2016.

7th Jan
2016
28th Oct
2018
Fracking risks turning the country against Tories,
Tory MP Zac Goldsmith warns
“Fracking is an issue that has the potential to turn whole regions against
the government,” for reasons including “the sheer volume of trucks.”

7th Jan
2016
29th Oct
2018
“Even the World's Biggest Miners Are Switching to
Electric Vehicles”
“Getting mines to be completely diesel free is our end goal” says
Andrew Draffin, of Voltra, a supplier to BHP. Current EV mine fleet <1%.

7th Jan
2016
29th Oct
2018
Wind and solar to strand $60 billion of coal assets
in the next decade across SE Asia: Carbon Tracker
Cost of new solar plants may be less than operating coal projects
by 2027 in Vietnam, 2028 in Indonesia and 2029 in the Philippines.

7th Jan
2016
30th Oct
2018
After yet another tremor requires 18 hour fracking
pause, Cuadrilla wants relaxation of quake rules
At 1.1, this was the strongest of what have now been 27 tremors in 2
weeks. Caudrilla, losing $94k a day when operations pause, wants stop-
rule at 2, not current 0.5. Above 1.5 can be felt at surface.

7th Jan
2016
30th Oct
2018
Humanity has wiped out 60% of animal populations
since 1970, threatening civilization in the process
So finds a WWF report written by 57 scientists, chronicling “a sixth mass
extinction” ….the first to be caused by a species – Homo sapiens. Us.

7th Jan
2016
30th Oct
2018
Californian renewables bill (100% by 2045) means
wipe-out for gas companies, say S&P & Moody's
S&P: “We believe that over the long term, with the growth of renewable
energy, these utilities face a significant threat to their market position,
finances, and credit stability.”

7th Jan
2016
31st Oct
2018
Drones to deliver vaccines to dozens of remote
villages in Vanuatu in world-first trial
Unicef set up the project, professing the technology has “massive”
potential in the Pacific and around the globe. If successful, next is blood.

7th Jan
2016
Nov
2018
The number of nuclear warheads has dropped
significantly …but more countries now have them
Peak year 1986

7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Seas have soaked up 60% more heat than the IPCC
reported, meaning even deeper carbon cuts needed
Princeton-led scientific team uses measurements since 1991 to calculate
greater heat from the same amount of greenhouse gas, meaning the
Earth is more sensitive to CO2. Conclusion: 20% more cuts to hit 2˚C.

7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Genuinely subsidy-free UK solar-farm building to
start in 2019, with a 2.5 GW 131 project pipeline
MW per year of installations >250 kW
110-120 MW
300-600 MW
Analyst Finlay Colville dismisses the two projects to-date that have
claimed to be subsidy free as non-legitimate.

7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Conservative MPs line up to criticise government's
‘downright bonkers’ and ‘ludicrous’ fracking plans
20 ready to rebel, the Independent reports. Lee Rowley, MP for NE
Derbyshire: “fracking will not work in this country.”

7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Thousands of Google workers stage walk-out
protest over sexual harassment in multiple cities
Sundar Pichai, CEO: “Employees have raised constructive ideas for how
we can improve our policies and our processes going forward.”

7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Lazard LCOE latest: solar less expensive
than coal and gas at utility scale
PV rooftop resi
PV rooftop C&I
PV community
PV cx utility
PV thin film utility
Coal
Gas combined cycle
Gas peaking
Nuclear
Solar thermal tower
Fuel cell
Geothermal
Wind
Source: Lazard Levelized cost MWh
Offshore
“This doesn’t compare apples
with apples” – ignores behind the
meter cost savings: PV Magazine

7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Off grid solar lighting sales fell again in 2018 H1
….no sign of the growth needed to hit SDG 7
A billion people remain without electricity. Yet existing light sales mean
c. $3.5bn additional income for households over lifetime of products.
million
4
33
1
2
12%
down

7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Solar home systems were only 11% of total
2018 H1 solar lighting unit sales, but….
….All 4 types of SHS grew, between 15% & 200% (>100 Wp) due to PAYG.
For all solar lighting, PAYG value ($110m) exceeds cash value ($107m).
GOGLA members data for c. 30% of global market <11Wp …..& c. 60-80% <11Wp
Total
0 - 1.5
Wp
1.5 - 3
Wp
3 - 10
Wp
11 - 20
Wp
21 - 49
Wp
50 - 100
Wp
>100
Wp
26 MW
2.7 m
solar
lanterns
$76 m
value
561 k
multi-light
systems
$40 m value
395 k
solar
home
systems
$102 m
value
20%
Total
Cash
PAYG

7th Jan
2016
1st Nov
2018
Potential clear in impact estimates for all off-grid
solar lighting products sold to date (as of June 2018)
Figures are conservative: based on constantly-updated GOGLA industry
standards, including only quality-verified products.
people with currently living in a
household with improved energy access
due to solar lighting products
people undertaking more economic
activity due to solar lighting access
metric tons of CO2 emissions avoided,
over products’ lifetimes
additional income unlocked over the
products’ lifetimes
savings on energy expenditure by
households switching to solar lanterns or
multi-light systems, over products’ lifetime
extra hours of light created for families
over products’ lifetimes

7th Jan
2016
2nd Nov
2018
Access to electricity is growing rapidly
around the world ….except in Africa
New IEA figures show the number without electricity has fallen
below 1 billion, but in Africa it remains around 600 million:
deployment is not keeping up with population growth.

7th Jan
2016
3rd Nov
2018
“'Records falling everywhere': solar panel demand
goes through the roof”
By end 2018, c. 2 million households will have panels, 17% have
batteries …. “and huge potential remains.”
Source: Australian PV Institute
Reported national PV total at Sept 2018: >10,131 MW

7th Jan
2016
4th Nov
2018
Only 5% of the UK’s biggest corporate pension
funds have a policy on climate-change risk
None of the 43 funds analysed by Pinsent Masons have a target for
investment in low-carbon assets, while all (£479bn in collective assets)
lack a decarbonisation target for their investment portfolio.

7th Jan
2016
5th Nov
2018
Tim Berners-Lee launches a global campaign
to save the web from abuse
The inventor of the internet a new “Contract for the Web” - a ”Magna
Carta” to be published in May 2019 that aims to protect people’s rights
and freedoms. He urges people, organisations and companies to sign up.

7th Jan
2016
7th Nov
2018
UK renewables generation capacity overtakes all
fossil fuels for the first time
Meanwhile investment in renewables drops 46% YoY in Q3 and the UK
drops to 8th in the EY Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index.
GW
Fossil fuels
41.2 GW
Renewables
41.9 GW

7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2018
“New wind and solar generation costs fall below
existing coal plants”
This applies now in “many” parts of the USA, “threatening to wreck
President Donald Trump’s hopes of reviving the mining industry.”
29 56
New estimates by Lazard of $ per megawatt hour, before any subsidies
Onshore
wind
Solar
Coal
Nuclear
27 45

7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2018 Support for fracking in the UK falls to 15%
So the latest instalment of the BEIS Public Attitudes Tracker finds. Poll
was taken before Caudrilla restarted fracking, triggering many tremors.

7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2018
FT reporter gathers evidence from locals that
China’s fracking for gas is polluting water supply
Residents of Xiaohaotu in Shaanxi province: “the water is beyond
repair”, containing multiple toxins. Elevated cancer & 70% with skin
rashes. Pigs & sheep dying after drinking water. Sinopec: no comment.

7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2018
Federal judge blocks Keystone XL pipeline, faulting
Trump's approval of it entering office last year
Judge Brian Morris of the District Court for the District of Montana: e.g.
State Department “simply discarded” climate change concerns.

7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2018
China's state news agency Xinhua unveils a virtual
AI newsreader: spot the difference
Such presenters can "work" 24 hours a day on its website and social
media channels, Xinhua says, "reducing news production costs".

7th Jan
2016
9th Nov
2018
“China’s drone makers zero in on armed forces”
The Zhuhai Air Show: >350 Chinese private firms now make drones.
Chinese companies have the lion’s share of the international market.

7th Jan
2016
10th Nov
2018
UK funds research into drones that decide who they
kill, Freedom of Information requests reveal
Ministry of Defence and defence contractors are funding dozens of
artificial intelligence programmes for use in conflict.

7th Jan
2016
10th Nov
2018
Northern California wildfire incinerates
most of a town called Paradise, killing many ….TBD
27,000 people escape on a highway through “a wall of fire”. Wildfires
also rage in south. 150,000 evacuated in all, including all of Malibu.

“The Terrifying Science Behind California’s Massive
Camp Fire”
7th Jan
2016
10th Nov
2018
“This is what a climate change reckoning looks like.” “The atmosphere as
it gets warmer is thirstier.” “Climate change is sucking California dry.”
Meteorologist Rob Elvington in a prescient
tweet the day before the fire broke out:
“Worse than no rain is negative rain.
Evaporative Demand Index (EDDI) is
maxing out for some areas for the last 4
weeks.”

7th Jan
2016
11th Nov
2018
First legal challenge against a proposed UK gas
power plant for breaching climate law
Client Earth objects to Drax’s planned 3.6 GW plant, which would bring
consented capacity to 18 GW. HMG estimates 6 GW of demand by 2035.

7th Jan
2016
12th Nov
2018
Harley Davidson unveils its first electric bike –
lynchpin of a major change of strategy and brand
The LiveWire will lead a charge to attract younger people and women to
motorcycling. (The average bike owner is 55 years old).

7th Jan
2016
12th Nov
2018
Candidate for first fully electric commercial plane
2.5 years from production
So designers Eviation say of their 650-mile-range 9 seater Alice, one of
c. 100 different electric-aircraft programs in development worldwide.

7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2018
Spain targets 100% renewable electricity by 2050
and a 100% decarbonised economy soon after
90% emissions cuts from 1990 levels in Spain’s draft climate change and
energy transition law. At least 3 GW wind solar p.a. in next 10 years.

7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2018
G20 nations increased subsidies for fossil fuels from
$75bn (£58bn) to $147bn (£114bn) 2007 to 2016
So a Climate Transparency report finds. This despite promising to phase
them out 10 years ago. Of the 20, only India is on track for 2˚C.
Worst are Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2018
Carbon budget is all used up - world has no more
capacity for building fossil fuel plants: IEA
“We have no room to build anything that emits CO2 emissions,” Fatih
Birol tells The Guardian. This applies to the 2˚C target, never mind 1.5˚C.
Existing infrastructure would “lock
in” 550 gigatonnes of of carbon
dioxide over the next 22 years.
That leaves only 40 gigatonnes

7th Jan
2016
14th Nov
2018
“Delay, Deny and Deflect”: NYT investigation finds
this is how Facebook’s leadership reacts to crises
50 past & present FB staff & congressional players are interviewed. Mark
Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg (COO) emerge guilty of systemic failings
on Russian election meddling, data sharing, & hate mongering.

7th Jan
2016
14th Nov
2018
In the Permian shale region, activists checking
methane & VOC leakage find very many violations
Sharon Williams of Earthworks with her infra-red gas imaging camera in
Pecos, Texas – profiled in DeSmog Blog.

7th Jan
2016
14th Nov
2018
“The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
(TCEQ) only monitors emissions in isolated cases….”
“…..usually when we file regulatory complaints and push them to do it”:
Sharon Williams. TCEQ has only 4 air monitors in the whole Permian.

IEA now expect a dramatic oil supply crunch in the
early 2020s, careful reading of WEO 2018 shows
7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2018
US shale production cannot keep up with the depletion, they say, and
even with post-2000 investment, discovery rates have been dropping….
EHOB =Extra-heavy oil and bitumen; NGLs = Natural gas liquids
NPS = New Policies Scenario SDS = Sustainable Development scenario

Jeff Bezos tells employees “Amazon is not too big to
fail … In fact, I predict one day Amazon will fail.”
7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2018
“Amazon will go bankrupt. If you look at large companies, their
lifespans tend to be 30-plus years, not a hundred-plus years.”

7th Jan
2016
18th Nov
2018
With 71 bodies found, and >1,000 people still
missing, Trump blames bad forestry management
He tours the Camp Fire site and says he hasn’t changed his mind on
climate change. 5,500 are still battling the blaze.

7th Jan
2016
18th Nov
2018
UK government using DFID money to promote
fracking - & prospects for British frackers - in China
Millions of aid £ spent on overseas O&G incl. 2 schemes to “export the
UK’s expertise in shale gas regulation” to China, Platform reports.

7th Jan
2016
19th Nov
2018
Yet again the IEA makes a bewildering projection
for global solar PV market (non) growth
GW
per year
additions

7th Jan
2016
19th Nov
2018
Free market is not working in protecting privacy,
and regulation of Big Tech is “inevitable”: Tim Cook
This in interview before further scandal this week: Facebook used a PR
agency to smear critics, NYT reports. Zuckerberg professes ignorance.

7th Jan
2016
19th Nov
2018
Solar PV & wind are now the cheapest new sources
of generation in every developed country ex. Japan
Excluding subsidies. So BNEF concludes in its analysis of H2 2018.
Benchmark LCOE: $58 for wind (down 6%) $60 for solar PV (down 13%).
The sky
is the
limit

7th Jan
2016
19th Nov
2018
Big 3 California utilities easily exceed 33%
renewables mandate and will achieve 50% by 2020
Solar is top at all 3 (PG&E, SCE and SDG&E). Senate Bill 100, signed into
law in September, mandates 60% RE by 2030 and 100% by 2045.
The sky
is the
limit

7th Jan
2016
21st Nov
2018
“Beijing to Judge Every Resident Based on Behavior
by End of 2020”
Those deemed untrustworthy will be “unable to move even a single
step,” according to the plan published on the city government’s website.
Meeting of the Beijing
Municipal City Peoples’
government

7th Jan
2016
23rd Nov
2018
Climate change damage to US economy will amount
to hundreds of billions of $, deaths in thousands
So concludes the National Climate Assessment, written by agency
scientists including Nasa and the defence and energy departments.

7th Jan
2016
23rd Nov
2018
50 Tory MPs sign letter to PM seeking UK climate
leadership via net-zero carbon emissions by 2050
Former ministers Damian Green, Oliver Letwin and Anna Soubry are
among the signatories. Their aims include protection for green jobs.
Simon Clarke MP,
pro-Brexit
Conservative,
organiser of the
cross-party letter

7th Jan
2016
23rd Nov
2018
Spark Energy becomes 7th and biggest UK supplier
to go bust this year: 290k customers
Simon Clarke MP,
pro-Brexit
Conservative,
organiser of the
cross-party letter
More carnage expect as wholesale prices rise, with the government’s
energy price cap looming. All the Big 6 are losing customers fast.

7th Jan
2016
26th Nov
2018
Arsenal becomes first soccer club to use battery
power at stadium: 2 MW, enough for a whole match
Installed by Pivot Power, the model is to buy power at cheap times, sell
at expensive times, and be paid for providing services to National Grid.

7th Jan
2016
26th Nov
2018
NASA lands first robot to deploy instruments on the
surface of another planet ….solar powered
The $1 billion Insight Lander will measure heat flow and record
marsquakes allowing planetary structure to be deduced.
Unravelling the mysteries of Mars interior

7th Jan
2016
27th Nov
2018
Facebook was warned of apparent Russian data
trawl in 2014, international parliamentarians told
Facebook’s representative, Richard Allan, confirms a leak of this
damning evidence to UK MP Damien Collins. Allan’s bosses told nobody.

7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
Climate change is already a health emergency,
say experts from 27 organizations in The Lancet
Top concerns include heatwave impacts, spread of infectious diseases.
“The findings are clear and the stakes could not be higher. We cannot
delay action”: Tedros Ghebreyesus, World Health Organisation DG.

7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
The Lancet Countdown 2018: Extreme heat
threatens “systemic failure” of hospitals

7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
Global food system is broken, say 130 of the world’s
national academies of science and medicine
Agriculture = 1/3rd of all greenhouse-gas emissions, and 1/3rd of all food
produced is wasted. Radical change is needed: less meat, improved
farming methods, focus on nutritious food rather than cheap food.
Hunger continues to grow. In
2017, 821 million people -
one in every nine - went
hungry, the UK FAO reports.

7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
EU announces it will be the first major economy to
be “climate neutral” - net zero emissions - by 2050
Renewables will be 80% of electricity, 53% final energy demand.
Packagewill boost economies by 2% of GDP by 2050 and reduce energy
imports by >70%, saving up to €3 trillion a year. Premature air-pollution
deaths will fall by >40%, saving €200bn a year in health costs.
EC’s VP of the
energy union
Maros Sefcovic
Energy
Commissioner
Miguel Arias
Cañete

7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
ExxonMobil to power Permian oil operations with
250MW of wind and 250MW of solar power
Provider of the PPAs: Orsted, formerly Danish Oil and Natural Gas.
Solar-powered fracking? It was/is only a matter of time.

7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
Macron announces 10 year energy plan: nuclear
down to 50% of electricity (from 71%) by 2035
14 reactors to close by 2035, and no new nuclear until then. Trebling of
wind and 5x solar by 2030, with up to €30 bn in state subsidies.
Fassenheim’s 2 reactors,
the oldest, first to go

Surface-air temperature anomaly for Jan – Oct 2018
(compared to the long term trend)
7th Jan
2016
29th Nov
2018
Last four years, 2015-18, were top 4 hottest ever:
World Meteorological Organisation
The 20 hottest years have all been in the last 22.
If the trend continues, global average reaches 3-5˚C by 2100.

7th Jan
2016
29th Nov
2018
FT cites four Russian analysts prepared to say that
Nord Stream 2 is not a commercial project
It makes no business sense, they argue. It is a geopolitical project aiming
to isolate Ukraine and boost Russian ability to project power in Europe.

7th Jan
2016
2nd Dec
2018
Annual climate summit (COP24) opens in Katowice,
Poland, with governments needing to accelerate

7th Jan
2016
2nd Dec
2018
The populists are having a negative impact on the
global emissions trajectory, it is widely agreed

7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
David Attenborough warns climate summit that
civilisation will collapse if we do not act
“If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the
extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon.”

7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
IEA’s 23rd annual Trends in Photovoltaic Applications
report tells a remarkable industrial success story
Of 99 GW global total

7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
27 countries have reached a minimum of 1 GW of
solar PV …but only one in Africa
Source: IEA Trends in Photovoltaic
Applications 2018
9 countries installed at least 1 GW in 2017. Cumulative per capita all
years: 1. Germany 514W. 2. Japan 390W. 3. Belgium 341W.
Distribution of the 403 GW of global cumulative PV power by end 2017

7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
Shell yields to investors and becomes first oil & gas
company to set a target on carbon footprint
Scope 3 targets will be set, and linked to executive pay. “It’s a massive
step change”, says the Church of England Pensions Board, “a model for
how [companies] can proceed.” But Shell still plans to increase gas.

7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
Silicon Valley is getting excited about British police
getting excited about using AI to predict crime
Most efforts so far have focused on forecasting where and when crime
will happen, but British police seek to predict who will perpetrate it.
West Midlands Police aim to produce a prototype by March 2019.

7th Jan
2016
4th Dec
2018
Qatar will quit OPEC Jan 1st 2019 ….to focus on gas
production, energy minister says
“When oil prices are too low even wealthy countries have problems with
revenues, expenditure & debt, especially after peak oil”: M. Mushalik

7th Jan
2016
4th Dec
2018
U-turn on eco-tax in face of Yellow Vests protests
sets back Macron's climate leadership agenda
A petrol price increase of 4 cents a litre was enough to trigger those
more generally troubled by inequality and austerity to protest and riot.

7th Jan
2016
4th Dec
2018
Spain announces 100% renewables target and >90%
emissions reductions by 2050
The Climate Change and Energy Transition Law, which provides for
retraining of fossil-fuel workers, has yet to be passed by Parliament.
Teresa Ribera
Minister of Energy
and Ecological
Transition

7th Jan
2016
4th Dec
2018
Xcel announces most ambitious US utility emissions
target so far: carbon-free electricity by 2050
Also ups 2030 target to 80%, and believes that can be done with
renewables and other clean tech available today.

7th Jan
2016
5th Dec
2018
Tackling climate change would save millions of lives
a year, the WHO tells COP24
“Morally, delaying the [clean energy] transition is being responsible for
millions of deaths every year”, WHO’s Maria Neira tells delegates.

7th Jan
2016
5th Dec
2018
US shale oil production keeps rising – but even at
$70 oil still the drillers make no money
IEEFA & Sightline report: 32 publicly traded fracking-focused companies
collectively spent nearly $1 billion more on operations during Q3 than
they received in sales of oil and gas. Their losing streak is now 9 years.

7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2018
Emissions set to reach an all time high of 37.1bn
tonnes in 2018, with cars & coal the main problems

7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2018
Solar Power Europe launches major campaign to
bring solar PV manufacturing back to Europe
The trade body seeks at least 5GW of manufacturing, spanning the
entire value chain. “The time is right”, SPE chair says.

7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2018
“Central bank warnings on the global economy are
getting louder”: Howard Davies
“Reasons to stay awake at night are multiplying”, says the former Bank
of England Deputy Governor and Chair of RBS. “The desired financial
tightening in credit markets has scarcely occurred yet.”

7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2018
Leaked Facebook e-mails show ruthless commercial
focus, counter to public interest, led from the top
So Zuckerberg wrote in a 2012 email about the possibility that
developers would build applications that used data about Facebook
users and their friends, but not provide any data back to FB.
“That may be
good for the
world, but it’s
not good for
us…”

7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2018
Microsoft asks governments to regulate the use of
facial-recognition technology
Brad Smith: the company wants to ensure AI does not invade personal
privacy or become a tool for discrimination or surveillance.
“We must ensure that the year 2024 doesn’t look
like a page from the novel 1984…”

7th Jan
2016
7th Dec
2018
French Yellow Vests protestors are organizing in
huge Facebook groups, and on Twitter
Many of the most visible accounts tweeting about the Yellow Vests
have a hard-right or far-right political positioning, Bloomberg reports.

7th Jan
2016
7th Dec
2018
“Inside China’s audacious plan for global
media dominance”
Since 2003 the political goals of the People’s Liberation Army have
overtly included “media warfare.” Today China Global TV Network is
hiring and training journalists worldwide “to tell China’s story well.”

7th Jan
2016
7th Dec
2018
US scientists: modern climate change “solidly in the
same category” as end Permian mass extinction
96% of all oceanic species died in just a few thousands years then, from
reducing oxygen in warming water. With the warming of the last 50
years, oxygen has declined 2%, and continues to drop.

After being alerted that
Tommy Robinson was
using Facebook as
though he was a charity,
FB removed the donate
button.
In all my reading about
this company, I have yet
to encounter an example
of them doing anything
pro-social proactively.
7th Jan
2016
7th Dec
2018
A British fascist activist raises “several hundred
thousands pounds ” online incl. via a Facebook page
A Guardian investigation finds that the anti-Muslim hatemonger is
financially and logistically supported by far-right US and Australian think
tanks, US tech billionaire Robert Shillman, and hundredsof Russian
trolls. Robinson has >1 million Facebook followers.

7th Jan
2016
8th Dec
2018
I delete my Facebook account and all personal data
they hold, concluding they are beyond reform
I urge all colleagues, friends and esteemed contacts who care about the
future of liberal democracy to do the same.

7th Jan
2016
9th Dec
2018
50 prominent Europeans publish manifesto aiming
to fight right-wing populism by tackling inequality
They envisage a €800 bn a year fund (4% of EU GDP, 4 x current budget)
created by taxing multinationals, millionaires and carbon emissions.
Thomas Piketty,
French economist,
spokesperson

7th Jan
2016
9th Dec
2018
BlackRock, Vanguard, Axa and other investors have
ramped up coal holdings since the Paris agreement
So InfluenceMap finds. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager
with $6.4tn in assets, has the largest absolute holdings in thermal coal.

7th Jan
2016
10th Dec
2018
Leave-funding hedge funders short retailers, betting
they crash in the post-Brexit British economy
Odey Asset Management, Marshall Wace & others have placed multiple
hundreds of millions bets against high-street names like Debenhams.

7th Jan
2016
10th Dec
2018
Cut emissions or face financial crisis much worse
than 2008, investors worth $32 trillion tell COP24
And the USA, Russia, and Saudi Arabia say they don’t “welcome” the
IPCC 1.5˚C report, as all other governments do, they only “note” it”....

7th Jan
2016
10th Dec
2018
Satellite data show for the first time that many of
East Antarctica’s glaciers are thinning & speeding up
If all the ice were to slide or melt, it would lift global ocean height 28
metres. “That's the water equivalent to four Greenlands of ice,” says
Catherine Walker of Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

7th Jan
2016
10th Dec
2018
“Just over a century ago, trustbusters broke up Standard Oil. The same
resolve is now needed to reduce the dominance of the tech giants.”
FT Lex column joins growing calls for
breakup of Google and Facebook

7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
New privacy lapse persuades Google to shut down
Google+ 4 months earlier than already announced
The total of users of the network whose personal data have been
exposed now stands at 52 million, Google admits in a blog.

7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
Google CEO refuses to rule out development of a
censored network for China
Sundar Pichai in Congressional Testimony: “We think it’s in our duty to
explore possibilities to give users access to information.”

7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
“….suggest that capitalism is substantially broken.
Reluctantly, I have come to a similar conclusion.”
So writes Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial
Times. “We must rethink the purpose of the corporation.”

7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
47th tremor at Caudrilla fracking site is biggest yet,
magnitude 1.5, and the first to be felt by residents
This is on a par with the one that led to a 7 year moratorium on fracking
in 2011. Caudrilla says they will restart after the required 18 hour pause.

7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2018
Increase emissions pledges or be on an “immoral”
“suicidal” path, UN chief tells climate summit
António Guterres tells COP24 “to waste this opportunity would
compromise our last best chance to stop runaway climate change. It
would not only be immoral, it would be suicidal.”

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2018
Shenzhen has the world's first and largest fleet of
fully electric buses: 16,000 of them
Shenzhen Bus Group estimates 160,000 tonnes of coal saved p.a. and
440,000 tonnes of annual CO2 emissions reduced, with fuel bill halved.

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2018
Norway will have to eschew >$800 billion in “value”
in a world that takes serious climate action
So concludes Norway’s Climate Risk Commission: remaining oil and gas
resources (55% still in place) could drop from 9 to 2 tn kroner ($233 bn).

7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2018
Study finds remarkable increase in grass growth
under solar array due to water retention in soil
Oregon State agriculturalists find that >90% more biomass (several key
grazing grasses) grows in areas partially or fully covered by solar panels.

7th Jan
2016
13th Dec
2018
“An energy crisis looms as forecasts ignore
US shale quality”: Anas Alhajji in the FT
“As a result of the mismatch between crude quality and refining
capacity, we have already hit a refining wall in the US.” Next stop world.

”You are not mature enough to tell it like it is.
Even that burden you leave to your children”
7th Jan
2016
14th Dec
2018
“If solutions within this system are so impossible to find
then maybe we should change the system itself.”
Greta
Thunberg
Age 15

After 6 years of the divestment campaign,
1,000 divestments now sum almost to $8 trillion
7th Jan
2016
16th Dec
2018
Unity College, Maine, was the first, in 2012. The latest are major French
and Australian pension funds. Widespread action by mainstream FIs
means that divestment is now a clear risk to fossil fuel companies.

Bank of England plans to test UK banks’ resilience
to climate change as early as 2019
7th Jan
2016
16th Dec
2018
So Mark Carney tells the FT in an interview. This would be an
unprecedented move for a central bank.

Entering 2019, 17 known separate investigations
of Trump-and-Russia are underway
7th Jan
2016
17th Dec
2018
A reminder: 69 people were charged as part of the Nixon-Watergate
investigation, 48 of whom pleaded guilty or were found guilty at trial.

Report lays bare how Facebook & Google misled
Congress on extent of Russia’s meme warfare
7th Jan
2016
17th Dec
2018
The most in-depth report yet on the Internet Research Agency, for the
Senate Intelligence Committee, shows enormous scale of trolls’ boosting
of Trump on Facebook, YouTube, and - in particular - Instagram.

ExxonMobil becomes the top driller in the US
Permian shale, expecting growth through 2025
7th Jan
2016
17th Dec
2018
It needs to do this to replace its otherwise falling oil production,
now at a 10 year low, Bloomberg reasons.

UK government confirms it will stop tariff payments
for rooftop solar generation from March
7th Jan
2016
18th Dec
2018
Minister Claire Perry said in Parliament barely two weeks ago that it
would be “wrong” for solar to be exported to the grid for free.
“Best British heist movie
since The Brexit Job”

“More worrying than a US-China trade war
is the risk of a hot one”
7th Jan
2016
18th Dec
2018
“It is easy to imagine how a collision in the air or at sea could escalate. Casualties could
fan nationalist flames on either side and cause twitchy officers, or political leaders, to
respond in ways that lead rapidly to disaster.”

New York Times investigation is worst Facebook
revelation yet: data access for 150 companies
7th Jan
2016
19th Dec
2018
“The special arrangements are detailed in hundreds of pages of Facebook documents
obtained by The New York Times.” ….+ interviews with c. 50 former employees of FB
and its corporate partners. Big questions about 2011 consent agreement with the FTC.

“Why Should Anyone Believe Facebook
Anymore?”
7th Jan
2016
19th Dec
2018
….“It's hard to process this without finally realizing what it is that's made
us so angry with Silicon Valley, and Facebook in particular, in 2018: We
feel lied to, like these companies are playing us, their users, for chumps,
and they're also laughing at us for being so naive.”
Fred Vogelstein: “There's a simple
takeaway from all this, and it’s not a
pretty one: Facebook is either a
mendacious, arrogant corporation in
the mold of a 1980s-style Wall Street
firm, or it is a company in much more
disarray than it has been letting on.”
….Or, of course, both

Washington DC sues Facebook for letting Cambridge
Analytica access peoples’ data without permission
7th Jan
2016
19th Dec
2018
“Facebook failed to protect the privacy of its users and deceived them
about who had access to their data and how it was used.”
Karl Racine, District of
Columbia attorney general

7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2018
“Investors in the European electricity lost half their money by the time the renewable
challengers made up just 4% of electricity supply, and underperformed the
• They followed consensus thinking and
expected continued growth.
• They underestimated the fall in the
costs of challenging technologies.
• They underestimated the ingenuity of
engineers at finding ways to solve
bottlenecks.
• They misunderstood the threat to their
business model from marginal change.
They thought incumbency was an asset,
but it turned out to be a liability.
The oil and gas companies are in the process of
making the same 5 mistakes the utility industry did

US and UK accuse Chinese government of sustained
hacking campaign as 2 are indicted in the USA
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2018
Chinese hackers accused of obtaining unauthorised access to the computers of at least
45 entities, including commercial and defence technology companies and US

“Google’s Earth: how the tech giant is helping the
state spy on us”: The Guardian
7th Jan
2016
20th Dec
2018
“This mixing of military, police, government, public education, business and consumer-
facing systems – all funnelled through Google – continues to raise alarms.”
“In 2006, Google Federal went on a hiring
spree, snapping up managers and
salespeople from the army, air force,
CIA….”
“…while Google’s PR team did its best to
keep the company wrapped in a false aura
of altruism, company executives pursued
an aggressive strategy to become the
Lockheed Martin of the internet age.”

“US shale’s financial blanket at risk of wearing thin
in 2019”
7th Jan
2016
23rd Dec
2018
The Federal Reserve signalling higher interest rates threatens access to
debt, and the plunging share prices of O&G companies threatens equity.

Big Tech hires senior US Department of Justice
officials in anticipation of antitrust battles
7th Jan
2016
23rd Dec
2018
Amazon, Facebook and others gear up for what “experts warn could be
an ‘existential’ battle over whether they should be broken up” (FT).

Campaign finance not Russian collusion to topple
Trump? “Here, apparently, we care about neither”
7th Jan
2016
23rd Dec
2018
Carole Cadwalladr: “The wider questions about the multiple crimes and
alleged crimes – nine serious or criminal investigations now in all –
committed during the referendum remain a side show.”

“President Trump and President Putin
could end the world today…”
7th Jan
2016
23rd Dec
2018
“…and there’s little any of us could do to stop them. What’s worse is
that’s the way we designed it”: Alexandra Bell, senior policy director at
the Centre for Arms Control and Non-proliferation.
Defense Secretary James Mattis,
“the last adult in the White
House”, has just resigned.

“The depressing reality about climate change is that
we could solve the problem, at manageable cost,
but are failing to do so”: FT Editorial Board
7th Jan
2016
26th Dec
2018
“The self-deception comes from those who accept the reality, but only pretend to
solve it. …The tragedy is that while the scientists and technologists have won the
argument, the climate sceptics and deniers have effectively won the policy debate.”
“This failure is due to
a mixture of blindness
and self-deception.
The blindness comes
from those, such as
US president Donald
Trump, who deny the
reality of climate
change.”
Howblind do you
have to be?

“Investment in low-carbon energy remains poor
for oil majors”
7th Jan
2016
27th Dec
2018
Harry Brekelmans of Shell tells the FT that a key frustration for energy companies such
as Shell is that many see only one pathway for decarbonisation — the elimination of
fossil fuels — rather than more “realistic” options.
Disclosed low carbon investment as a
proportion of total capital spend,
2010 to Q3 2018

7th Jan
2016
28th Dec
2018
He donated nearly £900,000 to Leave campaigns, and wants Boris
Johnson to replace Theresa May. (Presumably to up the crisis levels).
Crispin Odey boasts that each day of Brexit-related
political crisis is a “good day” for his hedge fund

7th Jan
2016
30th Dec
2018
Browne, the former chair of Caudrilla and the current chair of an oil and gas
investment vehicle owned by Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman, cites CCS as the top
action needed, and does not mention clean-energy investment.
“The energy industry must engage with climate
change” - John Browne op-ed in the FT

7th Jan
2016
30th Dec
2018
“Predictions at the start of 2018 generally held that demand
would keep growing until 2022 or later.”
“Combustion engine car sales to hit peak demand in
2018, say analysts”

A chronology in pictures and charts of selected developments in climate, energy, tech and the future of civilisation

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