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Integrating future climate change and riparian
   land-use to forecast the effects of stream
    warming on species invasions and their
         impacts on native salmonids




                    Julian D. Olden
          School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences
Research Team
                                                                           833834



Joshua J.       Christian E.      Lauren          David           Aaron
Lawler          Torgersen         Kuehne          Lawrence        Ruesch
College of      Forest and        School of       School of       College of
Forest          Rangeland         Fisheries,      Fisheries,      Forest
Resources,      Ecosystem         University of   University of   Resources,
University of   Science Center,   Washington      Washington      University of
Washington      USGS                                              Washington
Challenge Synopsis

• The prospect of dramatic climate change
  over the next century underscores the
  need for innovative science and new
  decision-support tools for efficiently
  managing freshwater ecosystems

• Elevated stream temperature is one of
  the most pervasive water quality issues
  threatening freshwater ecosystems in the
  Pacific Northwest

• Cumulative effects and complex
  interactions among multiple agents of
  environmental change are unknown
Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu)
The Oregonian, 1893




Photos Courtesy of the Catskill Archive
Percent Run
  Consumed
100

 80

 60

40

20

  0
        SMB      WAL NPM

      Sanderson et al. (2009)




                                Carey, Sanderson, Barnes & Olden (2011)
Northern pikeminnow
   (Ptychocheilus oregonensis)




www.fws.com
Project Goals
1.   How will Chinook
     salmon, smallmouth
     bass and northern
     pikeminnow respond to
     projected temperature
     changes associated with
     climate change and
     riparian management?
Project Goals
2.   What are the direct and
     indirect effects of
     smallmouth bass and
     northern pikeminnow
     on juvenile Chinook
     salmon?
Ecological Setting

• Land use vary longitudinally   North Fork


• Unregulated and one of the
  few remaining wild spring
  Chinook salmon runs in the
  Columbia River Basin

• Upstream invasion front of
  smallmouth bass (and           Middle Fork
  northern pikeminnow)
Predicting the effects of multiple stressors on salmon (EPASTAR)
Predicting the effects of multiple stressors on salmon (EPASTAR)
Predicting the effects of multiple stressors on salmon (EPASTAR)
Predicting the effects of multiple stressors on salmon (EPASTAR)
Conservation implications of work
Objective #1

• Will climate-
  induced stream
  warming reduce
  habitat for rearing
  salmonids?
Comparing present-day and future thermal habitat


Cooler Present


                                   Warmer Future



     Unsuitable
     Marginal
     Suitable

 ≈   Physical barrier
     Intermittent stream
     Suitable habitat
Predicting the effects of multiple stressors on salmon (EPASTAR)
Forward looking infrared
    thermal imagery
    provides spatially
 continuous mapping of
  stream temperature
Measure of stream temperature
Maximum Weekly Mean Stream Temperature (MWMST)




                                 Daily mean

                                 Weekly mean

                                 Maximum weekly mean
Modeling MWMST

MWMST = f (…

• Mean Elevation

• Maximum 7-day average daily
  maximum air temperature

• Cumulative Riparian Solar Penetration
   – Amount of annual solar radiation
     that passes through canopy in
     riparian areas
Model performance
                                                                          *




• 1 degree Celsius increase in air temperature results in an
  0.60C increase in stream temperature

        * Geographically-weighted regression for stream networks (Peterson and Ver Hoef 2010)
1993-2009                                               2080s *




                                             3.10C increase in
                                              mean MWMST

* Three GCMs (ECHAM5/MPI-O, CNRM-CM3, UKMO-HadCM3) for a mid-range (A1B) greenhouse-
gas emissions scenario. Spatially downscaled daily time-step climate projections to a 1/16th degree
resolution (Mote and Salathe 2010), and temporally downscaled from one month to daily temporal
resolution using a “Hybrid Delta Approach” (Hamlet et al. 2010).               Ruesch et al. (in review)
Historical average Future average                            Calculating habitat loss
                                                               due to climate change
                                                      → Which sites were < 240C historically, but
                                                      predicted ≥ 240C in the future (Eaton et al.
                                                      1995) …


    Intermittent
      streams                                      & do not occur on intermittent streams*…




                                                & overlap favorable habitat**.

  Chinook salmon
      Habitat
*Oregon Department of Forestry and National Hydrography Dataset
**Compilation of observations and expert opinion (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality). Not thermally dependent.
Projected loss of thermally suitable
                    habitat
      Chinook salmon               Rainbow trout                    Bull trout
(Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)     (Oncorhynchus mykiss)        (Salvelinus confluentus)




                               Loss length in km (percent of formerly suitable)
                             Loss volume in M m3 (percent of formerly suitable)
                                                                Ruesch et al. (in review)
Objective #2

• Forecast future
  distribution of
  SMB and NPM in
  response to
  climate-induced
  stream warming
  and land use
  change
Riverscape Surveys
• Spatially extensive snorkel
  survey of the NF (55km) and
  MF (50 km)

• Two sampling periods over
  two years (2009, 2010)
– Early summer (June)                                 104                                                            28

– Late summer (August)                                                                                               26
                                                                                                                     24




                                                                                                                          Stream Temperature (°C)
                              Daily discharge (CFS)
                                                                                                                     22

• Fish counts, habitat                                                                                               20
                                                                                                                     18
  assessment, bass nest                               103
                                                                                                                     16
  distribution                                                                                                       14
                                                                                                                     12
                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                RKM 47
• Temperature monitoring                              102                                       RKM 103
                                                                                                                     8
                                                                                                                     6
                                                              6/11

                                                                     6/21



                                                                                  7/11

                                                                                         7/21

                                                                                                7/31

                                                                                                       8/10

                                                                                                              8/20
                                                        6/1




                                                                            7/1
Predicting the effects of multiple stressors on salmon (EPASTAR)
Predicting the effects of multiple stressors on salmon (EPASTAR)
Early Summer (June)




           24 km overlap
Late Summer (Aug)




                    13 km overlap
Model results
Generalized Additive Models
           Estim.    St. Err.    t-value            P
June                                                    Model performance - August
β0         -29.23       3.13       -9.32     <0.001
Temp        1.85        0.18       10.22     <0.001
          Deviance explained = 78%,
            R-sq = 0.727, P<0.001
August
β0          1.13        0.34        3.33       0.002
Temp*                               4.98     <0.001
M.Depth     0.22        0.08        2.67       0.011
          Deviance explained = 87%,
            R-sq = 0.766, P<0.001
            * Approximate significance of smooth term
Forecasting species responses
• Applied a mechanistic temperature model (Heat Source) that
  allows for the simulation of water temperature at the reach
  scale using high resolution spatially continuous data

• Predicted future thermal regimes according to climate and
  management scenarios




                                         LiDAR from Watershed Sciences Inc. (2006)
Olden & Naiman (2010)
Climate and management scenarios

Scenario              Description
Future climate        Scenarios of projected water temperature
Future vegetation     Scenarios of projected land development
Restored vegetation   Complete restoration to estimated potential
                      vegetation (mature species composition)
                      John Day Fish Habitat Enhancement Program
                      Conservation and acquisition priorities (TNC, TFT)
Potential flow        Estimated volume of water in the absence of human-
                      related influences
Thermal potential     Natural thermal potential associated with vegetation,
                      flow and geomorphic restoration
Ecological targets    Scenarios targeting specific ecological outcomes
Climate and management scenarios

            Future Climate

                             Future
                             Landuse




  Present   Restoration
              Plans
The future of smallmouth bass




                 CC ++ Natural
                   CC Vegetation
                 thermal potential
                     restoration
                               Climate Change
Bass – Chinook overlap




          CC + Natural
          thermal potential
Objective #3
What are the direct and
indirect effects of
smallmouth bass and
northern pikeminnow on
juvenile Chinook salmon? Do
these change with
temperature?
• Fatty acid analysis will
  provide an integrated
  measure of predation on
  juvenile salmon and degree
  of dietary overlap of SMB
  and NPM



• Bioenergetics modeling will                    0.06
                                                        p = 1.0, prey energy density = 4,500 j/g
  provide insight into                           0.05



                                Growth (g/g/d)
  smallmouth bass and                            0.04
                                                            10 g
  pikeminnow growth and                          0.03
                                                            100 g
  consumption for different                      0.02

                                                 0.01
  life stages in relation to
                                                 0.00
  temperature                                           5     10      15     20      25     30     35



                                                                      Temperature (C)
Direct and indirect effects of                 Differences in innate recognition
temperature and predation on                     of juvenile Chinook salmon to
   juvenile Chinook salmon                      native and non-native predators

                                                     Control




                                                      A        B




                             Mortality
Response variables :
   1. Consumption                                • Standard Y-maze experiment to test
      (direct)
   2. Behavior
                        Growth       Behavior      innate recognition of northern
      (indirect)                                   pikeminnow (native) and smallmouth
   3. Growth                                       bass (non-native)
      (indirect)
   4. Stress response
      (indirect)
                                                 • Replicated in field setting
PREDATOR TREATMENT

                     Northern
                     pikeminnow




                     Smallmouth
                     bass
1.0
In the lab                                                                                      *                                                       *




                                                                                                    Time spent panicked (%)
                                                                                                                              0.08




               Time spent frozen (%)
                                       0.8


                                       0.6                                                                                    0.06



                                       0.4                                                                                    0.04


                                       0.2                                                                                    0.02


                                       0.0                                                                                    0.00
                                                          CTRL                    BASS     PIKE                                      CTRL     BASS     PIKE


                                                                          0.15

In the field                                                              0.10
                                             Change in fish visible (%)




                                                                          0.05

                                                                          0.00
                                                                                         CTRL                            BASS                PIKE
                                                                          -0.05

                                                                          -0.10

                                                                          -0.15                                                      Kuehne & Olden (in review)
Projected losses of                        Climate-induced range
thermally suitable                         expansion of SMB is
habitat for salmonids                      imminent and can be
ranged from 12 to                          mitigated through
100% depending on the                      restoration activities
species, climate-change                    that create and
projection, and unit of                    promote coolwater
measurement                                habitats




Juvenile Chinook salmon showed minimal response to SMB odor
and lacked the panic or fright response which existed for a co-
evolved predator, NPM
Implications

• Robust management and policy strategies for freshwater
  ecosystems depend on understanding the interactive
  effects of multiple drivers of change

• Coupled correlative-mechanistic models will help identify
  opportunities for co-benefits arising from management
  actions that aim to minimize the future range expansion of
  invasive species and produce thermally-suitable habitat for
  coolwater salmonids

• Management portfolios based on different ecological
  endpoints will be distributed to local and regional agencies
Acknowledgements                               833834

• Field support: Chris Biggs, Eric Larson,
  Thomas Pool, Angela Strecker, Beka Stiling
• UW: Dave Beauchamp, James Starr,
  Jeremy Cram
• ORDEQ: Don Butcher, Julia Crown
• ODFW: Jeff Neal, Chris James, Jim Ruzycki
• NOAA: Brian Beckman, Andy Dittman,
  Carol Volk
• USGS: Jeff Duda, David Powell, Audrey
  Taylor, Ethan Welty
• North Fork John Day Ranger Station
• North Fork John Day Watershed Council
• TNC: Jerry Ebeltoft
• BLM: Jimmy Eisner, Anna Smith
• Pentec Environmental: Michelle Havey
• Watershed Sciences: Russell Faux
• >80 landowners that allowed access to
  their land
http://www.fish.washington.edu/research/oldenlab/

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Predicting the effects of multiple stressors on salmon (EPASTAR)

  • 1. Integrating future climate change and riparian land-use to forecast the effects of stream warming on species invasions and their impacts on native salmonids Julian D. Olden School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences
  • 2. Research Team 833834 Joshua J. Christian E. Lauren David Aaron Lawler Torgersen Kuehne Lawrence Ruesch College of Forest and School of School of College of Forest Rangeland Fisheries, Fisheries, Forest Resources, Ecosystem University of University of Resources, University of Science Center, Washington Washington University of Washington USGS Washington
  • 3. Challenge Synopsis • The prospect of dramatic climate change over the next century underscores the need for innovative science and new decision-support tools for efficiently managing freshwater ecosystems • Elevated stream temperature is one of the most pervasive water quality issues threatening freshwater ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest • Cumulative effects and complex interactions among multiple agents of environmental change are unknown
  • 5. The Oregonian, 1893 Photos Courtesy of the Catskill Archive
  • 6. Percent Run Consumed 100 80 60 40 20 0 SMB WAL NPM Sanderson et al. (2009) Carey, Sanderson, Barnes & Olden (2011)
  • 7. Northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis) www.fws.com
  • 8. Project Goals 1. How will Chinook salmon, smallmouth bass and northern pikeminnow respond to projected temperature changes associated with climate change and riparian management?
  • 9. Project Goals 2. What are the direct and indirect effects of smallmouth bass and northern pikeminnow on juvenile Chinook salmon?
  • 10. Ecological Setting • Land use vary longitudinally North Fork • Unregulated and one of the few remaining wild spring Chinook salmon runs in the Columbia River Basin • Upstream invasion front of smallmouth bass (and Middle Fork northern pikeminnow)
  • 16. Objective #1 • Will climate- induced stream warming reduce habitat for rearing salmonids?
  • 17. Comparing present-day and future thermal habitat Cooler Present Warmer Future Unsuitable Marginal Suitable ≈ Physical barrier Intermittent stream Suitable habitat
  • 19. Forward looking infrared thermal imagery provides spatially continuous mapping of stream temperature
  • 20. Measure of stream temperature Maximum Weekly Mean Stream Temperature (MWMST) Daily mean Weekly mean Maximum weekly mean
  • 21. Modeling MWMST MWMST = f (… • Mean Elevation • Maximum 7-day average daily maximum air temperature • Cumulative Riparian Solar Penetration – Amount of annual solar radiation that passes through canopy in riparian areas
  • 22. Model performance * • 1 degree Celsius increase in air temperature results in an 0.60C increase in stream temperature * Geographically-weighted regression for stream networks (Peterson and Ver Hoef 2010)
  • 23. 1993-2009 2080s * 3.10C increase in mean MWMST * Three GCMs (ECHAM5/MPI-O, CNRM-CM3, UKMO-HadCM3) for a mid-range (A1B) greenhouse- gas emissions scenario. Spatially downscaled daily time-step climate projections to a 1/16th degree resolution (Mote and Salathe 2010), and temporally downscaled from one month to daily temporal resolution using a “Hybrid Delta Approach” (Hamlet et al. 2010). Ruesch et al. (in review)
  • 24. Historical average Future average Calculating habitat loss due to climate change → Which sites were < 240C historically, but predicted ≥ 240C in the future (Eaton et al. 1995) … Intermittent streams & do not occur on intermittent streams*… & overlap favorable habitat**. Chinook salmon Habitat *Oregon Department of Forestry and National Hydrography Dataset **Compilation of observations and expert opinion (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality). Not thermally dependent.
  • 25. Projected loss of thermally suitable habitat Chinook salmon Rainbow trout Bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) (Oncorhynchus mykiss) (Salvelinus confluentus) Loss length in km (percent of formerly suitable) Loss volume in M m3 (percent of formerly suitable) Ruesch et al. (in review)
  • 26. Objective #2 • Forecast future distribution of SMB and NPM in response to climate-induced stream warming and land use change
  • 27. Riverscape Surveys • Spatially extensive snorkel survey of the NF (55km) and MF (50 km) • Two sampling periods over two years (2009, 2010) – Early summer (June) 104 28 – Late summer (August) 26 24 Stream Temperature (°C) Daily discharge (CFS) 22 • Fish counts, habitat 20 18 assessment, bass nest 103 16 distribution 14 12 10 RKM 47 • Temperature monitoring 102 RKM 103 8 6 6/11 6/21 7/11 7/21 7/31 8/10 8/20 6/1 7/1
  • 30. Early Summer (June) 24 km overlap
  • 31. Late Summer (Aug) 13 km overlap
  • 32. Model results Generalized Additive Models Estim. St. Err. t-value P June Model performance - August β0 -29.23 3.13 -9.32 <0.001 Temp 1.85 0.18 10.22 <0.001 Deviance explained = 78%, R-sq = 0.727, P<0.001 August β0 1.13 0.34 3.33 0.002 Temp* 4.98 <0.001 M.Depth 0.22 0.08 2.67 0.011 Deviance explained = 87%, R-sq = 0.766, P<0.001 * Approximate significance of smooth term
  • 33. Forecasting species responses • Applied a mechanistic temperature model (Heat Source) that allows for the simulation of water temperature at the reach scale using high resolution spatially continuous data • Predicted future thermal regimes according to climate and management scenarios LiDAR from Watershed Sciences Inc. (2006) Olden & Naiman (2010)
  • 34. Climate and management scenarios Scenario Description Future climate Scenarios of projected water temperature Future vegetation Scenarios of projected land development Restored vegetation Complete restoration to estimated potential vegetation (mature species composition) John Day Fish Habitat Enhancement Program Conservation and acquisition priorities (TNC, TFT) Potential flow Estimated volume of water in the absence of human- related influences Thermal potential Natural thermal potential associated with vegetation, flow and geomorphic restoration Ecological targets Scenarios targeting specific ecological outcomes
  • 35. Climate and management scenarios Future Climate Future Landuse Present Restoration Plans
  • 36. The future of smallmouth bass CC ++ Natural CC Vegetation thermal potential restoration Climate Change
  • 37. Bass – Chinook overlap CC + Natural thermal potential
  • 38. Objective #3 What are the direct and indirect effects of smallmouth bass and northern pikeminnow on juvenile Chinook salmon? Do these change with temperature?
  • 39. • Fatty acid analysis will provide an integrated measure of predation on juvenile salmon and degree of dietary overlap of SMB and NPM • Bioenergetics modeling will 0.06 p = 1.0, prey energy density = 4,500 j/g provide insight into 0.05 Growth (g/g/d) smallmouth bass and 0.04 10 g pikeminnow growth and 0.03 100 g consumption for different 0.02 0.01 life stages in relation to 0.00 temperature 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Temperature (C)
  • 40. Direct and indirect effects of Differences in innate recognition temperature and predation on of juvenile Chinook salmon to juvenile Chinook salmon native and non-native predators Control A B Mortality Response variables : 1. Consumption • Standard Y-maze experiment to test (direct) 2. Behavior Growth Behavior innate recognition of northern (indirect) pikeminnow (native) and smallmouth 3. Growth bass (non-native) (indirect) 4. Stress response (indirect) • Replicated in field setting
  • 41. PREDATOR TREATMENT Northern pikeminnow Smallmouth bass
  • 42. 1.0 In the lab * * Time spent panicked (%) 0.08 Time spent frozen (%) 0.8 0.6 0.06 0.4 0.04 0.2 0.02 0.0 0.00 CTRL BASS PIKE CTRL BASS PIKE 0.15 In the field 0.10 Change in fish visible (%) 0.05 0.00 CTRL BASS PIKE -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 Kuehne & Olden (in review)
  • 43. Projected losses of Climate-induced range thermally suitable expansion of SMB is habitat for salmonids imminent and can be ranged from 12 to mitigated through 100% depending on the restoration activities species, climate-change that create and projection, and unit of promote coolwater measurement habitats Juvenile Chinook salmon showed minimal response to SMB odor and lacked the panic or fright response which existed for a co- evolved predator, NPM
  • 44. Implications • Robust management and policy strategies for freshwater ecosystems depend on understanding the interactive effects of multiple drivers of change • Coupled correlative-mechanistic models will help identify opportunities for co-benefits arising from management actions that aim to minimize the future range expansion of invasive species and produce thermally-suitable habitat for coolwater salmonids • Management portfolios based on different ecological endpoints will be distributed to local and regional agencies
  • 45. Acknowledgements 833834 • Field support: Chris Biggs, Eric Larson, Thomas Pool, Angela Strecker, Beka Stiling • UW: Dave Beauchamp, James Starr, Jeremy Cram • ORDEQ: Don Butcher, Julia Crown • ODFW: Jeff Neal, Chris James, Jim Ruzycki • NOAA: Brian Beckman, Andy Dittman, Carol Volk • USGS: Jeff Duda, David Powell, Audrey Taylor, Ethan Welty • North Fork John Day Ranger Station • North Fork John Day Watershed Council • TNC: Jerry Ebeltoft • BLM: Jimmy Eisner, Anna Smith • Pentec Environmental: Michelle Havey • Watershed Sciences: Russell Faux • >80 landowners that allowed access to their land