Libraries

1. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Listening to the Future:
Exploring the Future of Libraries
Daniel W. Rasmus
Managing Director & Principal Analyst
Serious Insights
Author of Listening to the Future and
Management by Design
@DanielWRasmus
Daniel W. Rasmus
Strategist

2. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Western Digital Hughes
@DanielWRasmus
Education economist.com
newscientist.com
conferences
Read, listen, read
NPR.org
FT.com
Community
ContinuousLearning
Poetic Moments
Questions from
Customers &
Students
Career
How I do my work
Wired.com
Uncertainties
Scenarios
Daniel W. Rasmus
Strategist
Daniel W. Rasmus
seriousinsights.net
Share

3. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

4. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
How will libraries
work in 2024?

5. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
What Just Happened?
The Variables Collapsed into a Set of
Values
OneStory

6. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

7. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
The phonograph
is of no
commercial value
Thomas Edison
“By 2000, machines will be
producing so much that
everyone in the U.S. will,
in effect, be independently
wealthy. With government
benefits, even non-working
families will have an annual
income of $30-40,000”Time Magazine, 1966
There is no reason
for any individual
to have a computer
in their home
Ken Olsen, President
Digital Equipment
Corporation, 1977
No woman in my time will
be Prime Minister or
Chancellor or Foreign
Secretary—not the top
jobs. Anyway I wouldn't
want to be Prime
Minister. You have to
give yourself 100%.
Margaret Thatcher in Sunday
Telegraph (London, Oct. 26, 1969
on her appointment as Shadow
Education Spokesman.)

8. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
NEW YORK, Thursday , October 19, 1967
By the year 2000, people will work no more than four days a
week and less than eight hours a day. With legal holidays
and long vacations, this could result in an annual working
period of 147 days worked and 218 days off.

9. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
As I've said many times, the
future is already here. It's just
not very evenly distributed.
William Gibson during an NPR interview (30 November 1999 Timecode 11:55)

10. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
More generally, the attention of theright expert at the right time is often thesingle most valuable resource one canhave in creative problem solving. Expertattention is to creative problem solvingwhat water is to life in the desert: it’sthe fundamental scarce resource.
Nielsen, Michael (2011-10-23). Reinventing Discovery: The New Era of
Networked Science (Kindle Locations 392-394). Princeton UniversityPress. Kindle Edition.

11. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Marshal
McLuhan
“We become what
we behold. We
shape our tools
and then our tools
shape us.”

12. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Understanding
Uncertainty

13. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Just What is Uncertainty?

14. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
How Will We Access Information?

15. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
How Will We Represent Books?

16. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Library Location
Decentralized & Local
Centralized & Virtual

17. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Licensing Approach
Centralized & Unified
Fragmented
&
Independent

18. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
How Much Stuff Can One Person Carry?
http://www.heritage.org/~/media/Images/Reports/2012/08/HSGAC%20Testimony/Historical%20Cost%20of%20Computer%20Memory%20and%20Storage
%20%20Large.ashx

19. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Market Position
Boutique
Small Press & Local
General Information

20. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Budget to retool?

21. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
How Will We Find Stuff?
Statistics?
Semantics?
Will stuff find me?
Metadata?

22. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Top Ten Trending Searches on Google: 2013
Rank
Overall Searches -
The World 2014
Overall Searches -
The US 2014
Overall Searches -
The World 2013
Overall Searches -
The US 2013
Overall Searches -
The World 2012
Overall Searches -
The US 2012
1 Robin Williams Robin Williams Nelson Mandela Boston Marathon Whitney Houston Whitney Houston
2 World Cup World Cup Paul Walker Government Shutdown Gangnam Style Hurricane Sandy
3 Ebola Ebola iPhone 5S VMAs Hurricane Sandy Election 2012
4 Malaysia Airlines Malaysia Airlines Cory Monteith Tornado in Moore, Okla. iPad 3 Hunger Games
5
ALS Ice Bucket
Challenge
Flappy Bird Harlem Shake Royal Baby Diablo 3 Jeremy Lin
6 Flappy Bird
ALS Ice Bucket
Challenge
Boston Marathon Zimmerman Trial Kate Middleton Olympics 2012
7 Conchita Wurst ISIS Royal Baby Typhoon Hiyan Olympics 2012 Amanda Todd
8 ISIS Ferguson Samsung Galaxy S4 New Pope Amanda Todd Gangnam Style
9 Frozen Frozen PlayStation 4 Syria Conflict
Michael Clarke
Duncan
Michael Clarke
Duncan
10 Sochi Olympics Ukraine North Korea Maryweather vs. Canelo 55512 KONY 2012

23. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
What Do We Hire A Library
to Do?

24. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Possible Futures
© Bill Timmerman
Community
Activities
Games
Tutoring
After School Care
Health & Safety
Shelter
Answer Hub
Job preparation
Elections
Computer Lab
Third Place
Post Office
Speakers & Other
Programming

25. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Preservation or Access
or ????

26. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

27. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
How Will We Represent Knowledge?
Does you ontology have an epistemology?
RDF
RDF Schema
Knowledge
Representation
Entity-
Relationships
DAML
OIL
Frame-based
Systems
KR Topic Map
OWL

28. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
The Relationship With Publishers
Pay more
walk away

29. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

30. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

31. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
The Relationship with Devices
Lend
Facilitate Ownership

32. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
any different
than this?
Why is this…

33. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Fragmented
Learning Approach
Holistic

34. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
What Will be the Role of Place?

35. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Regional and Bounded?
Open with no Boundaries?
The World

36. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

37. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Education
Influential and Leading?
Irrelevant and subsistent?

38. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Learning Motivation
I learn
just-in-time
I learn what my org
tells me to

39. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

40. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Broad-Cast (Discovery)
Narrow-Cast (Over Concentrate)
Curiosity

41. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Personal Technology
Implanted
External

42. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Who Will Document the Trust, Who Will Censor?
Internet censorship by country

43. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
What Rights Management Model will
Predominate?
Digital Rights Management
vs.
Digital Restriction Management

44. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
What Will We Need to Know?

45. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
90% of the jobs
people will hold ten
years from now don’t
exist today

46. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Gene Screener
Custom Pharmacist
Quarantine Enforcer
Drowned City Specialist
Time Shifting Coach
Robotic Mechanic
Animal Guardian
Entertainment Holographer
Space Tour Guide
Hydrogen Fuel Station Manager
GMO Investigator
Computational biologist
Computational Artist
Authenticity Engineer
Biotech Distributor
Parallel programmer
Desalination Engineers and Operators
Big Data Emgineer
Simulation engineer
Boomer companions, caretakers , counselors
Genetic counselor
Geriatric Medical Trainer
Brain analyst
Private Astronaut
Robot builders, tenders
Environmental Engineer
Environment Steward
Biofuel Engineer
Digital Actor
Sustainability Economist
Data Archaeologist
Choice Architect
Archeo-Biologist
Asteroid Miner

47. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

48. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Forecasting: Future Skills
• Test through scenarios
• Follow-on research
• Company Founding
• Angel Funding
• Venture Funding
• Patent Filing
• Legal Disputes
• Product Announcement
• Product Release
• Bankruptcy
• Silence
Acoustic
Gel
Gel Integration
Engineer
Windows
Designer
Smart
Screens
Gel
Manufacturing
Saline
Purification
GelSpeaker
Assembly
Gel Speaker
Repair
Gel
Chemistry Research

49. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Analytics
Insightful and Empowering
Insightful and Oppressive

50. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Just What is
Scenario
Planning?

51. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Scenario
Planning
What we want to
be tomorrow…
Vision or
Future State
Future
1
Future
2
Future
3
Future
4
S
t
r
a
t
e
g
y
Test ideas, concepts and strategies
against various plausible futures in
order to understand how robust
they are in the face of change
Avoid surprises
Test and
challenge
prevailing
assumptions
Identify emergent
opportunities
Prepare for
adaptation
Who we are & What we do today
Uncertainty
Create an early warning
systemSWOT
Understand implications for
different possible future on
strategies, goals and objectives

52. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Outside-In Thinking
© 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
The World
Your Industry or Field
Human Capital
High
Influence
Some Influence
Environmental Factors:
Little or No Influence
Your
Organization
Market size, growth, &
volatility
Competitors
Agencies
Contractors
Who you hire
Regulatory environment
Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political

53. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Scenarios are important for the conversations
they spark and the decisions they inform.
Scenarios Are Not Predictions…
The task is not so much to see what no one
has yet seen, but to think what nobody has
yet thought about that which everyone sees.
Schopenhauer:

54. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
The Measure of Success
Productivity vs. Serendipity
SaveTime
MakeConnections
Measurestuff

55. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Black Swans
Class Warfare in the United States
Locally strong pandemic effects
The Great Meltdown
Economic collapse & realignment
Internet Security Breaches & Cyberterrorism
Major Loss of Data
Major Loss of Control
India/China Cold War
Major Loss of Access
Solar Super-storm/Satellite-mageddon
Rare Earth Commodity Wars
Quantum Computing
Plasma Rockets
The Singularity

56. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Introduction to Future of
Learning Scenarios

57. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Learning Approach
Motivation
Internal
(Individual)
Fragmented Holistic
External (State/Corporation)
Time Out
Open LearningSubprime Learning
Corporate Lifeline

58. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Is a world in which…
•Corporate and private
partnerships have grown to
define the way things are
done
•Your career is determined
early by corporate
education partners and they
help you enter the
workforce
•The US remains the
dominate global economic
driver
•People Live to work and
work to Live
Subprime
Learning
Time Out
Open
Learning
Corporate
Lifeline

59. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Social
Pervasive surveillance, less privacy
Homogenous, global pop culture
Information easy to find, often biased, but
people don’t care
“Archologies”: or corp. towns common
Corporate universities play important
social role
Many people are time-shifted
People happy, but not very fulfilled
Technological
Universal network accessIncreasingly centralized data access,collection & storage
Unified identification
Organizational-oriented reputationsystems
Business Intelligence applied to workand communications
Economic
Steady economic recovery, largely led by the U.S.
Hierarchical
Strong Middle ClassGlobal oligopolies dominateReturn of “Organization” personManaged, incremental innovationEfficiency and price drive corp. behavior
Trading blocks
Terrorism replaced by industrial espionage
Opaque rules
In-sourcing
Scale uber alles
Green is about marketing anddiverting attentionReal work in environment only
takes place where it servesinterest of the firm, ornegotiated interest with
partner, either public or private
Environmental
Political
Fluid political boundaries
Strong public/private cooperation
More barriers to entry legislated for new
corporations
Regional tensions cool as large organizations
dominate culture
Success measured by wealth and stability

60. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

61. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Is a world in which…
• Globalization has
fractured
• Countries and regions
are turning inward to
shore-up their own
societies and
infrastructures
• Nationalism and State
control predominates
• The world slowly dis-
integrates
Subprime
Learning
Time Out
Open
Learning
Corporate
Lifeline

62. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

63. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Social
Nationalistic
Repatriation
Declining health from lack of international
cooperation
Strong local cultural identity
Religious movements more conservative
Education = indoctrination
Technological
Dis-integration
Local/ Regional Sourcing
State Surveillance
Inter-organizational collaboration and commsInformation translation and format transcriptionboth key
Regionally-oriented reputation systems
Economic
Stagnant world economyMore trade barriersPhysical movement of goods as important as
bits
Regional leaders, markets, brands and
products
Manufacturing returns, along with low wages
Outsourced work is (re-) in-sourcedMore human labor, less automation
Environmental
Political
Strained inter-national relations
Chinese/Indian Cold War
Strong anti-U.S. sentiment
Multiple regional conflicts
Regional standards and regulations
Nationalism, regionalism, and protectionism drive
agenda
Education gets ideological budget increases
Success measured through self-reliance
Only if local or personal
concern. Immediate survival
or accomplishment trumpslong-term concerns

64. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Is a world in which…
• Deep financial crisis.
• The old rules have stopped
working completely
• Local networks manage
where national policy fails
• People feel numb
• Loud calls for a US
Constitutional Convention
• Lack of institutional trust
• We take care of our own
Subprime
Learning
Time Out
Open
Learning
Corporate
Lifeline

65. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Social
Street smarts trump technical expertise
Constant change for the worse
More violence: “not-so-smart” mobs to
General sense of scarcity, shortages
Fatigue with complexity
Growth in fundamentalism
Taking care of one’s own: focus on family, return of
“tribe” and “micro-cultures”
Individual self-reliance
Personal security at a premium
Many people feel numb
Technological
Reuse and refurbishmentStealing bandwidth and cable commonNeed for multiple aliasesOlder versions of software surviveNot a lot to connect toMore missed information because ofmore mis-informationCommunity-oriented reputation systems
Economic
Triple dip.
“Incumbent” companies troubled: IP, workforce,
markets, liabilities…Falling standards of livingInnovation succeeds by taking into account
community problemsIncrease in the “grey” economyLarge areas of foreclosed homes occupied by
squatters
Major faults along class lines
Political
Loss of confidence in governments and
international bodies
Calls for Constitutional Convention in US
Even more independence between Canadian
providences
Increasing influence of NGOs and social
entrepreneurs
Brain-drain from neoconservative]
Communitization of public services, esp. at the
local level
EnvironmentalEconomic decline reducesenergy needsExtraction industriesslow dramaticallyWaste becomes morehuman and lessindustrial

66. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

67. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Is a world in which…
• Large corporations have
largely become holding
companies
• Value-webs have taken the
place of supply-chains
• Individuals create their
own, contextual work
environments
• Technological innovation is
rampant and chaotic
• The world into which the
Millennials are taking us
kicking and screaming
Subprime
Learning
Time Out
Open
Learning
Corporate
Lifeline

68. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Social
Networks predominateDisorientingThe truth is crowd-sourcedGlobal identification systemsMassive mobilityPopular spirituality movements
Short half-life of successPersonal brandingPeople take time to take time
Open access to info. and education
Just-in-Time LearningPortfolios of skills
Economic
Knowledge Economy Kicks in
World economy remains turbulent
Value webs dominate
Redundancy and transparency ensure continuity
Rapid boom/bust cycles
Fast-paced collaborative innovation and change
Smells like opportunity and optimism
Fluid invention and
re-invention
Reputation is everything
Personal brands
Technological
Emphasis on relationship management in all aspects of life
Massive contact lists
Blurring between enterprise and extra-enterprise
networks
Strength and success in open source atop common “plug-
in” infrastructure
Viruses rampant
Security & rights management
move to document level
Personal prioritization and attention management
Personal reputation systems
Attention management
Distributed surveillance and security
Large environmental movement
fueled by social connections
Peer pressure becomes commonin behavior changeEverybody has the potential to
actually see what happens in
sensitive areas and often do
Environmental
Political
Traditional models give way to distributed
governance
Highly participatory, near direct democracy
Self-interests are business interests
Revolutionary upheavals in education, tax
structure and international relations
Success measured by value of networks

69. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

70. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Scenarios and Buildings

71. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Implications

72. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Designing Tomorrow’s Book
Given what you know about
technology, and within the constraints
of your future, design what a book
might look like, what features it might
have, its licensing model, etc.

73. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
The Implication for Libraries:
What do People Hire the Library For?
•Access to Information: Standard platform
•Representation of Books: Commercial,
constrained
•Storage & Capacity: Near Infinite-controlled
public cloud
•Role of Library: Community/State meeting
place
•How we Measure Success: Industrial age
•Rights Management: Restriction
management/state
•Access to Information: Digital
•Representation of Books: Commercial,
constrained
•Storage & Capacity: Near infinite-controlled
private cloud
•Role of Library: Extension of professional
development, research
•How we Measure Success: Industrial age
•Rights Management: Restriction
management
•Access to Information: Physical
•Representation of Books: Paper
•Storage & Capacity: Limited
•Role of Library: Community space, learning
center
•How we Measure Success: Knowledge economy
•Rights Management: Communal Ownership
•Access to Information: Primarily digital.
•Representation of Books: Open interoperability.
•Storage & Capacity: Near infinite, cloud and
personnal
•Role of Library: Virtual and physical community
•How we Measure Success: Knowledge economy
•Rights Management: Ownership and personal
control

74. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Sed ut perspiciatis unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem
accusantium doloremque laudantium, totam rem aperiam,
eaque ipsa quae ab illo inventore veritatis et quasi architecto
beatae vitae dicta sunt explicabo. Nemo enim ipsam
voluptatem quia voluptas sit aspernatur aut odit aut fugit, sed
quia consequuntur magni dolores eos qui ratione voluptatem
sequi nesciunt. Neque porro quisquam est, qui dolorem
ipsum quia dolor sit amet, consectetur, adipisci velit, sed quia
non numquam eius modi tempora incidunt ut labore et dolore
magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem. Ut enim ad minima
veniam, quis nostrum exercitationem ullam corporis suscipit
laboriosam, nisi ut aliquid ex ea commodi consequatur? Quis
autem vel eum iure reprehenderit qui in ea voluptate velit
esse quam nihil molestiae consequatur, vel illum qui dolorem
eum fugiat quo voluptas nulla pariatur?
At vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos ducimus
qui blanditiis praesentium voluptatum deleniti atque corrupti
quos dolores et quas molestias excepturi sint occaecati
cupiditate non provident, similique sunt in culpa qui officia
deserunt mollitia animi, id est laborum et dolorum fuga. Et
harum quidem rerum facilis est et expedita distinctio. Nam
libero tempore, cum soluta nobis est eligendi optio cumque
nihil impedit quo minus id quod maxime placeat facere
possimus, omnis voluptas assumenda est, omnis dolor
repellendus. Temporibus autem quibusdam et aut officiis
debitis aut rerum necessitatibus saepe eveniet ut et
voluptates repudiandae sint et molestiae non recusandae.
Itaque earum rerum hic tenetur a sapiente delectus, ut aut
reiciendis voluptatibus maiores alias consequatur aut
perferendis doloribus asperiores repellat.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipisicing elit, sed
do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna
aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation
ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse
cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat
cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt
mollit anim id est laborum.
Metadata
about ideas
$-Pay for accessAuthor &
Experts
Cloud
Personal
Social
Network
Lectures
“blog” for owners only
Book can be
“reconstructed” in
a non-linear way
around key ideas
other references: in-app purchase
meme
tracking: is
this still
relevant? If
so, to what, to
whom?
Interaction
metrics back to
publishers-What
part of the book is
engaging the
reader?
You choose where to display
(including wall or table)
Including which App
DRM-Pass Thru
Persistent Notes
right to resell - lend
Share socially
down to idea
Intelligent paper
interacts with e-copies
You decidewhere it lives!
Perpetual content license
with migration fees

75. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
WHY?
Because we have to plan
not only for the future
we want, but for the
future we are given.

76. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Change is a Design Problem

77. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus

78. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
Thank You

79. © 2014 by Daniel W. Rasmus
For more information, please contact:
425.868.0271
dwrasmus@danielwrasmus.com
seriousinsights.net
@DanielWRasmus