3. 3PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Sustainability is Threatened
Projected Health Spending as Percent of GDP
OECD countries are converging in spending trends
Global health spending will triple to $10 trillion in 2020
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
US OECD w/o US
21%
16%
Drivers:
• Technological
advances
• Aging
• Rising standard
of living
• Consumerism
• China Source: OECD data, PwC
estimates
2003 US per capita spending on healthcare -- $5,670
Rest of OECD -- $2,3521
4. 4PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Despite High Spending, Patients Often Don’t Get
the Care They Need
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Breast
Cancer
Low back
pain
High blood
pressure
Depression Diabetes Asthma Sexually
Transmitted
Disease
Hip Fracture
Source: McGlynn, et al., New England Journal of Medicine, 2003.
On Average, Adults Receive 55% of the Recommended Care
for Many Common Conditions
5. 5PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Medical Errors Are a Leading Cause of Death
Number of Deaths per Year
Sources: National Vital Statistics Report, Institute of Medicine
Medical Errors Compared to Other Common
Causes of Death
Medical
Errors
44,000-
98,000
Motor
Vehicles
47,000
Breast
Cancer
41,000
HIV
14,000
7. 7PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Is Healthcare Spending Worth It?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1980 1990 2000
Mortality from Heart Attacks in Relation to Advances in Care
1980s
Blood thinners
Beta Blockers
CABG
Metal stents
Thrombolytics
Implantable
defibrillators
Drug-eluting
stents
1990s 2000s
Statins
ACE inhibitors
Death
Rate per
100,000
Source: www.cdc.gov/nchs; The Value of Investment in Health Care
10. 10PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Efforts to Encourage Competition
Germany Public hospitals are privatized
Reduction in costs,
competition among private
hospital groups
The
Netherlands
Insurance companies contract with providers
independently, forcing providers to differentiate
themselves.
Begins in 2006
Singapore
MediShield plus, a government plan that paid for
hospital care, is privatized
Under way
U.S.
Medicare outsources drug benefit to private
companies, which compete for beneficiaries
Benefit starts in 2006
England,
Ireland
Services, such as cataract surgery, outsourced to
private companies
Waiting lists reduced
Australia
Government offers 30% tax rebate to encourage
consumers to buy health insurance; premiums are
cheaper to early buyers
Number of insured
Australians increased from
30% in 1998 to 45% in 2002
Canada
In 2005, the Canada Supreme Court rules long
waiting lists violate patients' "liberty, safety and
security" under the Quebec charter.
Enforcement delayed til 2006
while debate continues
11. 11PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Transferable Lessons: Common Ground
- Collaborate across traditional
sectors and territory boundaries
- Determine what care or benefits
are basic to public health and
structure an insurance system
for the rest
- Use regulation to encourage
and strengthen competition
- Access new sources of capital
to remain competitive
• New Dutch system has
mandatory insurance and basic
benefits package.
• German hospitals privatized
• Outpatient drug benefit
outsources to PBMs
15. 15PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
The necessary digital transformation of the healthcare
system
MolecularMolecular
(Genetic character(Genetic character
of self pathogens)of self pathogens)
CellularCellular
(Types, counts,(Types, counts,
receptors)receptors)
TissuesTissues
(Metabolism(Metabolism
pathology)pathology)
Organ SystemsOrgan Systems
(Anatomic detail)(Anatomic detail)
InterventionsInterventions
(Orders, meds,(Orders, meds,
procedures)procedures)
PatientPatient
Decision SupportDecision Support
Clinical DecisionClinical Decision
SupportSupport
ComputerizedComputerized
Patient RecordPatient Record
16. 16PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
The necessary digital transformation of the healthcare
system
M.D.M.D.
PatientPatient
EHR/EnterpriseEHR/Enterprise
SoftwareSoftware
Trusted Sources /Trusted Sources /
Info. BrokersInfo. Brokers
Search Engines /Search Engines /
AgentsAgents
Gossip
Science
Collective
Patient
Experience
Case ManagerCase Manager
Knowledge
Domains
Consensus
Care Pathways
Infomercials
Collective
M.D.
Experience
17. 17PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Transferable Lessons: Digital Backbone
- Invest in shared IT
infrastructure
- Leverage technology to
eliminate duplication and
administrative inefficiencies
- Make technology a reason to
gather together
• EU health ministers move
toward trans-European e-health
system by 2010
• NHS investing £6.2 billion in
national electronic network
• 200+ RHIOs under way
• 40% of general practices in
Australia process claims
electronically
• CAQH centralizes credentialing
and moves toward streamlining
claims administration
19. 19PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Transferable Lessons: Incentive Realignment
Transferable Lessons:
- Establish shared incentives to
accomplish mutual goals
- Make wellness the preferred,
if not mandated, lifestyle
- Make consumers more personally
responsible for the cost of
seeking care
- Put prices on the menu; disclose
charges
- Reinforce clinicians’ roles as
facilitators of appropriate care
• Italy finds limited results from
co-pays, focuses on physician
referrals
• Employers raise consumer
contributions through co-pays,
savings accounts and co-
insurance
21. 21PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Effect of co-pay on physician utilization in
Germany, 2004-2005
-8.7%All physicians
-11.3%Orthopedist
-17.5%Dermatologist
-15.1%Gynecologist
-11.6%Surgeon
-7.9%General practitioner
Source: German Resident Doctors Association
22. 22PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Designing Incentives for Healthy Lifestyles
Obese Overweight Normal
Back problems 9.9% 8.9% 6.9%
Hypertension 23.4% 12.5% 4.9%
Diabetes 9.2% 3.4% 1.3%
Heart Disease 7.5% 4.7% 3.7%
Source: The Rise in Prelevance of Treated Disease: Effects on Private Health Insurance Spending, Health
Affairs, June 2005
Prelevance of Treated Disease by Body Mass Category
24. 24PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Transferable Lessons: Quality and Safety
Standards
Transferable Lessons:
- Harmonize quality standards
- Make error reporting voluntary and
anonymous
- Incentivize clinicians for outcomes,
not activity, through pay-for-
performance
- Learn from existing systems when
designing performance-based
reimbursement
- Publish or perish
- Leverage quality to move the
market
% who said pay-for-performance
efforts had not started in their area
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2002 2005
Source: HealthCast 2020 Survey
29. 29PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Transferable Lessons: Strategic Resource
Deployment
Transferable Lessons:
- Organise care around the
patient
- Move information, not people
- Anticipate cream-skimming
- Think small
• Norway uses
telemedicine to
decrease costs of
transporting patients
to central centres
• In Australia, 45
hospitals offer
“Hospital in the Home”
• Spain is building a
regional network of 37
small, digital hospitals
in Andalusia
31. 31PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Transferable Lessons: Climate of Innovation
Transferable Lessons:
- Help workers and clinicians
change jobs and processes
- Customise drugs and care to
patients’ genetic and cultural
levels
- Value technology’s impact on
productivity and lifespan
- Listen to consumers
• Homecare providers in the
Netherlands and US are
training nurses and aides to
use laptops and handheld
computers that are Internet- or
cellular-enabled
• Beverly is making long-term
care centers with family-style
meals and family areas
• Kaiser trains physicians to talk
to patients with a “third
person” computer in the room
33. 33PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
Transferable Lessons: Adaptable Roles and
Structures
Transferable Lessons:
- Broaden and leverage nursing
more widely
- Challenge conventional training
and licensing models
- Anticipate ways to deliver care
to patients who increasingly
move and travel
• Australia gives NPs limited
prescribing rights
• In Africa, former patients
learn to repair fistulas
• The EU has a system for
mutual recognition of
medical professionals’
qualifications
34. 34PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
An exploration on the megatrends in the
Healthcare industry
1. Healthcare is the industry growing most in the economy
2. Demographic changes and changes in the patterns of diseases
3. Great impact of the new medical technologies
4. Great impact of the innovation, mainly related to IT
5. Concern about quality
6. Appearance of the “new consumer”
7. Changes, but not radical ones, in the way of providing services
8. Change of the paradigm of the biomedical model
9. The emerging health economy
10. A place for new global players?
35. 35PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
1. Healthcare is the industry growing most in the
economy
Evolution and forecast % GDP in healthcare in the US
Health Spending Projections Through 2013
Stephen Heffler et al
Health Affairs-Web Exclusives, W4-79
1993
1998
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2013
13,4%
13,1%
14,1%
14,9%
15,3%
15,5%
15,7%
18,4%
37. 37PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
3. Great impact of the new medical technologies
Health and Healthcare 2010 The Forecast, The
Challenge. Second Edition. The Institute for the
Future, 2003
RATIONAL DRUG DESIGN
ADVANCES IN IMAGING
MINIMALLY INVASIVE SURGERY
GENETIC MAPPING AND TESTING AND
PHARMACOGENOMICS
GENE THERAPY
VACCINES
ARTIFICIAL BLOOD
XENOTRANSPLANTATION
Development of new chemical entitities by looking
at the physical structure and chemical
composition of the target and designing drugs
that bind to those molecules
Advances in the four key areas: energy sources,
technology of detection, analysis of the images
and display technologies
Advances in the fiber-optic technolgy,
miniaturization, image digitization and
navigational systems for vascular catheters
To date, clinical test have been develop for more
than 500 human genetic disorders, a number that
will continue to grow. That permits predictive
medicine and more personalized treatments
The insertion of a functional gene into targeted cells
of a patient to correct and inborn error or to provide
the cell with a new function
New uses of vaccines for non-infectious diseases. It
is foreseen a new role to prevent virus related
cancers and also to treat some cancers
The FDA has recently approved products with
synthetic hemoglobin, that could be an ideal
substitute of blood transfusions
That will avoid the scarcity of organs and also to
treat some other diseases, such as diabetes and
Parkinson
STEM CELL TECHNOLOGIES
The impact could be really huge. Damaged heart
muscle could be substituted, also pancreatic islet
cells in diabetics or some kind of neurons in patients
with Parkinson’s disease
38. 38PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
3. Great impact of the new medical technologies
1. MRI and CT
2. ACE inhibitors to treat high blood pressure
3. Balloon angioplasty to open blocked blood vessels of the heart
4. Statins to improve lipid metabolism and reduce risk for coronary heart disease and
other vascular diseases
5. Mammography
6. Coronary artery bypass graft
7. Proton pump inhibitors and H2 blockers to treat gastro-esophageal reflux disease
8. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and new non-SSRI anti-depressants
9. Cataract extraction and lens implant
10. Hip and knee replacement
“Physicians’ Views of the Relative Importance of Thirty Medical Innovations,”
Victor R. Fuchs, Ph.D., and Harold Sox, Jr., M.D
Health Affairs, 2001
39. 39PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
4. Great impact of the innovation, mainly related
to IT
1. Pay-for-performance programs
2. Introduction of electronic health records into medical practices
3. Add-ons to EHRs--instant medical histories, coding devices, prescription-enabling
modules, or Web sites that permit registration, virtual visits, prescription refills and
open-access scheduling
4. Software facilitating office dispensing and prescription writing
5. Software enabling self-care, self-service and self-empowerment of consumers
6. New practice business models (concierge, cash and retail)
7. High tech/high touch remote patient monitoring with patient interactive capacity
8. Personal health records with and without EHRs
9. Disease management programs
10. The transparency movement as part of the consumer-driven care movement
The Top 10 Healthcare Innovations for 2006
By Richard L. Reece, M.D., for HealthLeaders News, August 1, 2006
42. 42PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
7. Changes, but not radical ones, in the way of
providing services
It is not foreseen the appearance of any new healthcare
organization capable to substitute the individual medical visits
and the hospitals as predominant ways of healthcare
provision
New complementary ways of provision:
• On line healthcare services
• E-visits
• Telemedicine
• Focused factories
43. 43PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
8. Change of the paradigm of the biomedical
model
Biomedical model Future
Episodic care
Management of chronic
diseases
Objective: cure
Control and adaptation to the
disease, when there is no cure
Fee for services Subscription
Process leaded by the
provider
Process leaded by the
consumer
Curative medicine Predictive medicine
45. 45PricewatershouseCoPricewaterhouseCoopers
September 2005
10. A place for new global players?
USA, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, The
Philippinnes, Portugal
Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, France,
Germay, United Kingdom, Spain
United Kingdom, Australia, Ireland, Saudi
Arabia, Spain, Thailand, Hong Kong
Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands,
Luxemburg, Portugal, Check Republic, Norway,
Sweden, Spain and China (representation
office)
Good morning. Thank you very much, Luis and Fernando, for inviting me to share with you in my rusty English some ideas about the main trends in the Healthcare industry.
I will start by saying that PwC has published three main reports on the trends of the healthcare industry. The first one in 1999, the second in 2001 and the last one in 2005. This last report deals with the sustainability of the healthcare system. Sustainability has been a great concern for politicians and managers of the system everywhere.
The question is: Are our healthcare systems sustainable? In other words, will our healthcare systems be able, such as we know them, of being operational and useful for future generations?
The common answer, particularly among the politicians, is that because the healthcare expenses are growing more than the general growth of the economy, healthcare systems will be unsustainable if this trend is maintained.
Nevertheless, healthcare expenses have been growing in the last decades, and will continue to grow in the future. According to the OECD and other estimates, that will be the percentage of GDP devoted to healthcare in the US in the year 2020: 21% (they are now at about 15%). And this will be the percentage in the rest of the OECD countries, except the US: 16% (they are now at about 9%).
In other words, a huge growth of healthcare expenses. And, what are the reasons explaining this fantastic growth of the healthcare expenses?. Well, the main reason is the real avalanche of new knowledge in biomedicine (more that 30,000 articles per month in the Medline, the scientific database of the US). This new knowledge is quickly transformed in new diagnostic and therapeutic technologies, which permit to handle some problems until now impossible to handle for human beings. Apart from that, the aging of the population, consumerism and so on. But the main reason is technological advances.
Despite high spending, patients don’t get the care they need. This graph is taken from a paper published recently in the NEJM, a prestigious medical magazine. What that shows is that adult patients receive on average 55% of the recommended care in some very common conditions: breast cancer, depression, diabetes, etc.
The expenses are growing, we don’t received the recommended care, and, also, healthcare system could be dangerous. This is the result of a very well known report published in the US: there are more deaths in the US in hospitals by medical errors that deaths for traffic accidents, and much more than for very popular diseases as breast cancer and HIV. This report produced a great impact in the US.
Another observation is that the healthcare system that, until very recently, regarded as a local industry, is becoming global as well. Here are some examples of global influences in the healthcare industry: companies in South Africa contract with the NHS for elective surgery, The Philippines export nurses around the globe, the US turns to Indian and Australian companies for outsourcing radiology readings, … If we come to Spain, CAPIO a Swedish company has recently bought a hospital chain in Spain, Spain is exporting medical doctors and nurses, at the same time we are importing doctors from East European countries,…
Reaching this point, we should ask this question. Is healthcare spending worth it? There area a lot of articles saying that the introduction of the new technology is worth in terms of quality of life, avoiding mortality and prolonging life. This is just an example: this is the death rate per 100,000 population in heart attacks with the therapeutic approach of the 80’, 90’ and in this century. We can see the reduction of the mortality.
Well, the importance of this report of PwC is that face this problem of the sustainability of the healthcare system, not in terms of analysis of the growth of the expenses, but in a much more holistic approach. The report identifies 7 attributes of sustainable systems and healthcare organizations.
Quest for common ground
Digital backbone
Climate of innovation
Quality and safety standards
Realignment of incentives
Strategic resource deployment
Adaptable delivery roles and structures
What the report does is to explain these attributes and to present examples of initiatives on this line in several countries.
I am going to present very quickly some of these examples.
Common ground. That means that the healthcare system is not already the relationship between a medical doctor and a patient. It is a complex industry with many public and private institutions and companies, sometimes competing. Nevertheless, a common vision and a balance of public and private interests, in a context of societal priorities, are necessary to have a sustainable system.
For example, some public Administrations are making efforts to encourage competition in the healthcare system. Germany is privatizing some public hospitals, in The Netherlands insurance companies contract with providers independently, in England the NHS is outsourcing some of the elective surgery,..
Those are some transferable lessons:
Collaborations across traditional sectors
Use regulation to encourage competition
Access to new sources of capital, for example in Spain there are some initiatives for the private financing of public infrastructures, as is the case in the UK
Digital backbone. Everything related with the digital transformation of the healthcare system
Do you remember Newt Gingrich, Bill Clinton’s friend?. He is now devoted to IT in healthcare. And to quote him: Paper kills. Why paper kills?
This is the core activity of the healthcare system. The relationship between a doctor and a patient. It is supposed that a patient goes to see a doctor looking for information and clinical decisions. What are the traditional tools used by doctors for this relationship:
First, the clinical record, normally in paper. But if the clinical record is in paper and is here, it can’t be in another hospital, or in a surgery, or in the car, or at the home of the patient,… all places where this clinical information could be needed. And if we don’t have this information will go to the anonymous medicine which is dangerous and very expensive.
Second tool, medical knowledge, which is in the brain of the doctor. How is this brain fed? Contacts with come colleagues, attendance to some clinical sessions, occasional reading of some articles,… but we are speaking of more than 60,000 new references per month in the Medline on biomedicine. To diffuse this new knowledge is a fantastic logistic challenge of knowledge management that can’t be solved reading sometimes some magazines.
So “paper kills”. In other words, it is impossible a medicine of quality based on papers. The whole health system needs a digital transformation.
In this transformation, the clinical record plays a central role.
But not a traditional clinical record, understood as a mere repository of clinical information, but as a place receiving manually or automatically a lot of information from several sources, and used by the doctor and the patient.
This is the vision of the future medical/patient relationship. Both receiving information from many sources and establishing relationships (not only in one direction, as was the traditional approach), through a smart clinical software. This is the EHR.
There are a lot of examples of digital transformation. Perhaps the most notorious example is the great project in the NHS, the biggest non-military project of IT in the world.
Incentives realignment. For the consumers, for healthcare professionals and medical institutions.
Some examples
It is supposed that we can avoid unnecessary demand, combining copayment and physician incentives.
Those are the effects of the copayment in Germany on the reduction of the activity
Incentives for healthy lifestyles. This is the prevalence of some diseases, comparing obese and normal people.
Quality and safety standards. Until now, because the information was hailed in paper, it was difficult to measure quality. But it is supposed that the digital transformation of the healthcare system is going to facilitate the establishment of quality and safety standards.
Some lessons
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07/04/16
There is a movement now to introduce the Six Sigma method in healthcare. If you are at the level 6, that means that it will be less than 3.4 defects per million; if you are a 5 Sigma, 230 defects per million, and so on.
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07/04/16
We can compare now the quality level for these three conditions: airline deaths, problems with the airline baggage handling or errors in the diagnosis of heart attack in the emergency area of a hospital.
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07/04/16
Well, those are the results. You have more possibilities of being badly diagnosed in a hospital if you have a heart attack than to lose your baggage in an airport
Strategic resource deployment. Obviously, nothing to see the deployment of resources now than before having the possibilities given by the telemedicine.
Some lessons
Climate of innovation. It is impossible to improve care, efficiency and outcomes, if we don’t introduce continuously innovations in technology and processes
Some examples
And lastly, adaptable roles and structures. In other words, not fixed professional roles and care facilities, but flexible roles for professionals and for institutions
Some examples
Following this report, and directly inspired by Moses, we would like to share with you some comments on these megatrends of the healthcare system
Healthcare is the industry growing most in the economy
Demographic changes and changes in the patterns of diseases
Great impact of the new medical technologies
Great impact of the innovation, mainly related to IT
Concern about quality
Appearance of the “new consumer”
Changes, but not radical ones, in the way of providing services
Change of the paradigm of the biomedical model
The emerging health economy
A place for new global players?
We have already seen this point. This is the % of GDP devoted to healthcare in the US in the year 2013
Demographic changes and changes in the patterns of diseases:
Ageing of the population
More importance placed on of the chronic diseases
More importance placed on mental diseases
Great impact of the new medical technologies
According to the Institute for the Future, those are the technologies that will have the greatest impact in this decade:
Rational drug design
Advances in imaging
Minimally invasive surgery
Genetic mapping and testing and pharmacogenomics
Gene therapy
Vaccines
Artificial blood
Xenotransplantation
Stem cell technologies
Victor Fuchs, probably the most prestigious health economist in the world, did a survey a few years ago among a lot of medical doctors in the US, asking for the 10 technologies of higher impact in the last times. And this is the result:
1.MRI and CT
2.ACE inhibitors to treat high blood pressure
3.Balloon angioplasty to open blocked blood vessels of the heart
4.Statins to improve lipid metabolism and reduce risk for coronary heart disease and other vascular diseases
5.Mammography
6.Coronary artery bypass graft
7.Proton pump inhibitors and H2 blockers to treat gastro-esophageal reflux disease
8.Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and new non-SSRI anti-depressants
9.Cataract extraction and lens implant
10. Hip and knee replacement
Great impact of the innovation
Concern about quality. We have already spoken about that
Appearance of the “new consumer”. This new consumer has more the mentality of client than the mentality of patient. It could be defined as people with as least two of these three characteristics:
In a household with a income above 53,000 $
At least 1 year of college education
Experience with IT, as having a PC
As you can see, more that 50% of the population could be classified as “new consumers”
Changes, but not radical ones, in the way of providing services
Changes in the paradigm of the biomedical model
The emerging health economy.
The people who defend this concept say that a health economy is one in which the value of health becomes a key driver for the growth of the whole economy, not just the health care sector.
In such an economy, traditional health care continues its very strong expansion. But more important, a broad set of health values- including physical, emotional and spiritual well-being- drive innovation and growth in markets for a wide range of products and services not traditionally associated with health
These include such disparate things as cosmetics, fashion, security, building supplies, wellness and food
Some people say that the frontier in economic growth is not wireless communication, or biotechnology or even nanotechnology, but that the real growth opportunity for the end of this decade is the emerging health economy
Several phenomena:
People use the traditional healthcare services using the traditional payors
People use the new products with money from the pocket
Traditional healthcare companies are exploring new products, apart from the traditional ones
Non healthcare companies are exploring products related with health
In the healthcare industry there have been always global players, but in the field of pharmaceutical or medical devices companies, but not in the field of payors (insurance companies) or providers.
It was considered that the payors and providers were local markets, where the aspects of specific regulations were so strong that there was no place for a global company adding value.
Is this situation changing?
The other day we had an interesting discussion on this topic with Luis and Fernando.
The people who defend the place for global companies in this field say that the main competitive differentiation of this companies is the introduction of the innovation (in IT, imaging, biomarkers, genetic tests,…) and that this innovation would be easily introduced by global companies.
I don’t know if these companies could be defined as global healthcare companies, but, at least, they have international operations.