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Sea level rise
- 1. © Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Sea level rise Nathaniel Bindoff 6 October 2017, Lautoka, Fiji
- 2. Multiple lines of robust evidence support the conclusion that many aspects of the climate system have changed. Warming in the climate system is unequivocal
- 3. Global mean sea level increased by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m between 1901 and 2010 1901-2010: 1.7 mm/yr 1993-2010: 3.2 mm/yr
- 4. Sea level rise of 0.52 to 0.98 m by 2100, under the high emissions scenario. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century
- 5. In the well measured time period 1993-2010, global mean sea level is consistent with the sum of observed contributions (high confidence). Contribution to sea level rise in 1993-2010 Ocean warming: 38% Changes in glaciers: 28% Greenland ice sheet: 10% Antarctic ice sheet: 10% Land water storage 14% year TS Figure 3
- 6. Storm tides evaluated from stochastic cyclones Lautoka 1-in-200 year Fiji: Storm tides are largest on northwest coastlines of the Fiji Islands Samoa: Storm tides are more uniform around the coastlines of the Samoan Islands Source: McInnes et al, Glob. Planet. Change. (2014) Source: McInnes et al, Nat. Haz. (2015) Apia
- 7. Sealevel • Extraordinary that we can measure global sea-level • Sea-level is different to warming oceans – • it will continue to rise long after the earth’s temperature has stabilised • The Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are a big contributors global sea-level. • Key risk going into the future • Have we already made a decisions about the ice sheets?
- 8. © Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude www.climatechange2013.org Further Information
- 9. Sea level rise will increase the frequency of extreme sea levels Planning Benchmark SLR Allowance Allowance Planning Benchmark Source: McInnes et al, AMOJ (2015)
Editor's Notes
- In this talk I[ am going to describe the extent to which observed changes in climate can be attributed to natural and anthropogenic factors.] with particular reference to the oceans. I will present the greater evidence available now compared to AR4 that human-induced changes are occurring right across the climate system, including atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere. I will also discuss how increased understanding allows us to better quantify the anthropogenic and natural forcings. While a perspective of at least 30 years is needed to provide a robust assessment of attribution of climate changes. And then discuss how the major headlines from the Second Assessment report to the Fifth assessment report have changed.
- Mean rates: 1.7 [1.5 to1.9] mm/yr 1901 – 2010 2.0 [1.7 to 2.3] mm/yr 1971 – 2010 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm/yr 1993 – 2010 (all very likely)
- Sea level anomalies relative to 1961–1990: Black: Church and White (2011), Yellow: Jevrejeva et al. (2008), Orange: Ray and Douglas (2011), Red: Nerem et al. (2010), Green: Ablain et al. (2009), Blue: Leuliette and Scharroo (2010) All records use different reference periods where they start from zero – needs to be taken into account by: - Take the longest record (calculated relative to the average for the period 1900 – 1905) and find from this record the value for 1993, the start year for altimetry (127 mm) - On all other time series an offset is added (or subtracted) to the whole time series, so that the value for 1993 is 127mm.
- Explain the figures …