1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
CDR and Ecosystems: Opportunities and Risks
Dr Christopher Trisos
Coordinating Lead Author, Africa Chapter, IPCC WGII
4. Native Forest Plantation Forest
vs
Credit: Terraformation.com Credit: Terraformation.com
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
5. Potential for Ecosystem-based Adaptation with CDR co-benefits,
that involves local communities and includes Indigenous
Knowledge systems,
and if global warming is limited to relatively low levels.
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerbility
Final thought
Notas do Editor
with longer duration and magnitude of overshoot, risks of extinction are higher.
But even with low overshoot there are risks, such as for island endemics
Islands cover only ~2 - 4% of Earth’s Land Area BUT support ~20% of extant terrestrial species (due to high endemicity)
Substantial losses expected for insular species
80% of historical extinctions
host almost 1/2 all species currently at risk of extinction
100% of island endemics to face extinction @ GWL 3 degC
Island endemics – innate high vulnerability to both stochastic and deterministic threats narrow habitat ranges, small population sizes, low genetic diversity and poor adaptive, dispersal and defensive capabilities … AND Unlike continental environments, insular species have limited opportunities for autonomous adaptation because depending on the island size and altitudinal variation, they may not have the geographic space to shift their ranges to track suitable climatic conditions
Build off what Richard and Carolina will mention on large scale CDR with example of reforestation→
C stored in ecosystems (above and below ground) could be lost with higher levels of warming (fires, droughts, increased aridity, massive tree-dieoffs), making it difficult to get back down.
Majority of reforestation currently occurring (outside of N.America and Europe) in the form of monocultures and monocultures and plantations are malmitigative and also maladaptive for biodiversity
Most reforestation within the tropics and sub-tropics - across the most biodiverse regions of the world (S. America, Asia, SE Asia, Africa) is in form of monoculture and/or plantations - Eg monoculture and plantations comprise close to ½ of all reforestation commitments for the Bonn Challenge
Negative impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems and the services they provide → which in turn will likely have negative impacts on local/regional/global climate and human quality of life
Reforestation primarily driven by short term financial/economic gain eg. wrt carbon credits and tree crops etc - where biodiversity and ecosystem (services) have not been adequately valued or integrated into financial/carbon market systems
Little thought has been given to the fact that as CC continues, monocultures, apart from being maladaptive - will be more vulnerable to impacts of CC eg pests, diseases, tree dieoffs and decreasing genetic (clonal propagation) diversity→ →
→ hence CDR via reforestation currently on track to be less secure and less efficient (native forests consistently store more Carbon in longer term) with monoculture focus
No direct empirical data - but this implies that a shift of focus towards native reforestation could mean greater and more secure Carbon stores and therefore less risk to CDR from forests
The diversity of African Indigenous Knowledge and local knowl- edge systems provide a rich foundation for adaptation actions at local scales
African Indigenous Knowledge systems are exceptionally rich in ecosystem-specific knowledge used for management of climate variability. Integration of Indigenous Knowledge systems within legal frameworks, and promotion of Indigenous land tenure rights can reduce vulnerability.
