Innovation Overload – Technology, Jobs and the Future

11/18/2014
1
9:00 AM - 10:00 AM
Innovation Overload – Technology, Jobs and the Future
Room: Meeting Room 3
Speaker: David Smith
This is not your grandfather’s job market where one could work and retire from one company after 40
years. Your father and your company have probably not fared that well either. The fast pace of
technology change and productivity improvements, in an increasingly competitive market, have
forced companies to change their strategy, frequently upgrade and improve their products or
services, and adjust their workforce. Downsizing, outsourcing, automation, financial pressures,
short-term demands, and failed strategy all contribute to the challenges.
The pace of technology innovation is increasing so fast that many have a hard time choosing where
to focus and how to discover what is new. Most delay action and then miss the window to innovate.
The growth of complex systems and a global infrastructure has changed the decision and education
process. The ability to adapt to real-time and continuous learning will provide an advantage for
professionals of the future. A future focus and focused innovation will drive the next generations of
products and services.
This talk explores the future of work and how it impacts companies and you.
Technology, Jobs and the Future
David Smith

11/18/2014
2
Work
“No other technique for the conduct of life
attaches the individual so firmly to reality as
laying emphasis on work:
For work at least gives one a secure place in
a portion of reality, in the human community.”
Sigmund Freud
The product of work contributes to health, well-being and
economic & social stability.
Changes to the Future of Work

11/18/2014
7
Growing Shortage of U.S. Workers
Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand
Millions of People
250
200
150
100
50
Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and
projections of Census/BLS and BEA data.
0
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Labor Needed
Labor Available
Female Labor Force Participation
(as a Percent of the Female Population Age 15+),
1990-2011

11/18/2014
8
Screeching to a Halt:
Growth in the Working-Age Population
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) It’s 2008: Do You Know Where Your Talent Is?
Why Acquisition and Retention Strategies Don’t Work, p.6
-50%
Mexico Brazil India China South Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy Japan Germany
Korea
1970-2010
2010-2050

11/18/2014
9
Dramatically Different Patterns of Growth
by Age
Percent Growth in U.S. Population by Age: 2000-2010
5% 5%
-9%
18%
48%
15%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Age of Workers
1. Declining number of mid-career workers
2. Few younger
workers entering
3. Rapid growth in the over-55 workforce
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
. . . Continuing Into the Future
Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age: 2000-2020
7% 8% 7%
-10%
Age of Workers
3%
73%
54%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 55-64 65+

11/18/2014
10
In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World . . .
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2000
. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2025

11/18/2014
11
Why? Dramatic Increase in
Life Expectancy
Average Life Expectancy at Birth in the U.S.
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Source: U.S. Social Security Administration
“Sudden” Boom in Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000
Age
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
76.5
47
38
35 36
30
25
0
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1900 2000

11/18/2014
12
And a Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates
Total Fertility Rate
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Source: Age Wave
Total Fertility Rate:
3.3
2.8 2.9
3.6
2.0
1960 2000
2.5 2.5
4.0
5.9
2.0
1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
1.8
3.1
0
US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy China India
Why? The Baby Boom Pattern
4.5
4.0
3.5
Millions
3.0
in Birth 2.5
2.0 The Boom Years: 1946-1964
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base

11/18/2014
13
Skill Mismatch Ahead in the U.S.
 Over the next decade, only 30% of US 20 year/olds will obtain a
college degree, but 2/3’s of new jobs will require a college degree
 Key skill sets will be in critically short supply:
- # students that declared their major in computer science has
declined for past 4 years—now 39% lower than in 2000
- Other shortages: engineering, physical & biological sciences
 A growing number of high school dropouts
 Fewer high school graduates with vocational training
 Labor “imports” decreasing due to security restrictions and
opportunities in rapidly developing countries
Source: In part, The Seventh-Annual Workplace Report, Challenges Facing the American Workplace, Summary of Findings,” Employment Policy Foundation,
2002; India Daily, October 12, 2005, citing McKinsey & Co. Research; Computing Research Association, March 2005; Information Week, August 16, 2004; Holding
on to Global Talent: Foreign-born stars are heading home. How to keep them working for you” by Anne Fisher, Fortune Magazine,
October 19, 2005. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
When I was growing up, my parents
used to say to me, "Tom, finish your
dinner. People in China and India are
starving."
Today I tell my girls, "Finish your
homework. People in China and India
are starving for your jobs."
Source: “The New York Times' Thomas Friedman on
Globalization,” CIO Magazine, March 25, 2005
—Thomas
Friedman, The
World is Flat

11/18/2014
14
U.S. 21st Century Workforce Challenges
Chronologically older
Limited availability
Key skills lacking
Global & Virtual
Diverse
- Race
- Gender
- Age Generations
- Culture
Source: Testimony by Tamara J. Erickson to the U.S. Senate Committee on
Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, May 2005
“Multi-Generational” Workforce
Traditionalist Boomer Generation X Generation Y
Born: 1928-1945 Born: 1946-1964 Born: 1965-1980 Born: 1980-2000
Four generations (cultures) are being asked to coexist in the
early 21st century workplace
Source: Based in part on “Meeting the Challenges of
Tomorrow's Workplace,” CEO Magazine, 2005

11/18/2014
15
Webster's Definition of Retirement
• to disappear
• to go away
• to withdraw
Source: Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary
Average Retirement Age of Males
68 1960 1995
66
64.5
59.2
France
65.2
60.5
64.5
60.6
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
66.2
62.3
66.2
62.7
66.5
63.6
67.2
Germany Italy Canada UK US Japan
64
62
60
58
56
66.5

11/18/2014
16
Falling Desire for Jobs
with Greater Responsibility
69%
41%
Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute
14%
60%
54%
31%
1992
2002
15%
80%
Under 23 years old
(Gen-Y in 2002)
23-37 years old
(Gen-X in 2002)
38-57 years old
(Boomers in 2002)
58 or more years old
Declining Desire for Jobs with Greater
Responsibility By Gender
Employees Wanting Jobs with Greater Responsibility
52%
68%
Men
1992 2002
Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute
36%
57%
Women
1992 2002

11/18/2014
17
Lower Alignment with the Organization
45
39
32
48 44
28
57
52
35
65 61
53
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
I really care about the fate
of this organization
(agree)
I’m willing to put in effort
beyond that normally
expected to help the
organization be
successful (agree)
I find my values and the
organization’s are similar
(agree)
Y X Boomer Traditionalist
Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation, The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2004

11/18/2014
18
Shifting the Old Work/Life Paradigm . . .
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Education Work Leisure
Age
Source: Demography is De$tiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age
80
. . . To a “Cyclic” Life Paradigm
Source: Demography is De$tiny,

11/18/2014
19
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age
80
. . . Evolving to a “Blended Lifestyle”
Source: Demography is Destiny,
Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic
Work
12%
39%
49%
Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forth
between working full-time
and not working
The most popular pattern for
working after “retirement” is
not part-time, but moving
back and forth between
periods of working and not
working.

11/18/2014
20
Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic
Work
12%
39%
49%
Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forth
between working full-time
and not working
The most popular pattern for
working after “retirement” is
not part-time, but moving
back and forth between
periods of working and not
working.

11/18/2014
22
Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.
The Limits of Technology
 The laws of physics
 The laws of software
 The challenge of algorithms
 The difficulty of distribution
 The problems of design
 The importance of organization
 The impact of economics
 The influence of politics
 The limits of human imagination
Fundamental
Human
The Open Economy
• New business models
based on collaboration, co-creation
& sharing
• Transparency as a normal
practice
• Conversations (two way
communication)
• Open interfaces to partners,
vendors, suppliers,
customers
• Common technology and
business standards
• Service and Experience
Mentality

11/18/2014
23
Impact of Lifestyle on Health and Work
100%
HEALTH
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
AGE
Ideal Lifeline
Typical Lifeline
Optimal Health
Declining Health
Poor Health
Progressive and
chronic disability
What is healthy aging in the 21st century? Westendorp RGJ Am J Clin Nut, Vol. 83, No. 2, 404S-409 (2006)

11/18/2014
24
Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.

11/18/2014
34
The reward for work well
done is the opportunity to
do more.
- Jonas Salk (1914 - 1995)
In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your business
world will change.”
⎯Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel
“Only the Paranoid Survive”

Innovation Overload – Technology, Jobs and the Future

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