Village Economy and 3rd Industrial Revolution Drive Urban Growth
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The document discusses how post-war culture and economics are ending as the third industrial revolution begins, driven by urbanization, new technologies, and changing social values and preferences. This is giving rise to "Urban Villages" - modern cities combining the density and economic output of cities with the communal values and practices of villages. The sharing economy, peer-to-peer networks, and ubiquity of digital technologies are allowing new models like marketplaces, crowdfunding, and social software to thrive according to principles of mission, proprietary supply, and global orientation.
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Village Economy and 3rd Industrial Revolution Drive Urban Growth
- 1. The Village Economy! ! Terrence Rohan! @tmrohan! ! ! !
- 2. ! ! ! Uncommon times:! ! Post-war culture & economics! are ending.! ! +! ! 3rd industrial revolution ! is beginning. ! ! ! !
- 3. ! ! ! Post-war culture and economics ! are ending.! ! ! !
- 4. http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/06/why-cities-are-growing-faster-suburbs/2420/! http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/us_cities_in_the_global_economy! Living! For the first time in 100 years, suburbs are dying, and cities are growing.! ! ! ! Urban life, culture and businesses are thriving.! ! Poised for global growth, cities already account for 80% of ! global GDP. ! !
- 5. Transport! Car culture is dying. ! ! ! For the first time in 50 years, we’ve seen a steady 2.5% decline in miles driven / yr over the past 8 years. ! ! Public transport, biking, ride sharing are at the highest ridership in 60 years. ! !
- 6. Retail! How we shop is radically changing. ! ! ! Offline, malls are dying at 10% a year; and urban experiential! retail is booming.! ! Online, e-commerce is already at 4% of GDP of the G20 ! !
- 7. Money! Monetary systems are being re-written.! ! ! Like Naspter to music, digital currencies will upend! international systems. ! ! Peer-to-peer provides real alternatives to lending and investing. ! ! Cash is no longer king.! ! !
- 8. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/10/jobs/embracing-the-millennials-mind-set-at-work.html?_r=0! http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeannemeister/2012/08/14/job-hopping-is-the-new-normal-for-millennials-three-ways-to- prevent-a-human-resource-nightmare/! Work! Work is viewed, valued and practiced differently. ! ! ! Meaning and a sense of purpose, not monetary upside, ! are the primary drivers for Gen Y in the workplace.! ! There are 42m freelancers! in the US, up from 10m in 2005. ! ! !
- 9. Ownership! Concept of ownership is being re-defined.! ! ! Driven by Gen Y sensibilities, the sharing economy already generates $5b+ a yr. ! ! Home ownership is at 20 yr lows and renting is at all time highs. ! ! ! http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-internet-everything-hire-rise-sharing-economy!
- 10. Services! “Sacred” public institutions are being challenged.! ! ! Private companies are providing “public” goods: ! • Education! • Public Transport! • Urban Development! • Science! • Healthcare! • Space! !
- 11. Companies! Economic power is shifting towards start-ups, makers & SMBs.! ! ! Technology and startups represent largest job and GDP growth. ! ! SMBs account for over 50% of both GDP and jobs. ! ! Makers, including craft & hardware, are a $50b market.! !
- 12. Goods! Consumer preferences are radically changing. ! ! ! Big box brands are losing favor to the trends of personalization, craft, local, artisan, and so on.! ! One category alone, local and organic food, is a combined $40b market. !
- 13. Entertainment! Media has completely changed.! ! ! Media production & consumption has been turned on its head: ! ! Music, News, Movies, TV industries have all contracted in the past 20 years. ! ! Yet there has never been more Music, News, Movies and TV available to everyone.!
- 14. ! ! ! Post-war life is ending.! ! ! !
- 15. ! ! ! ! Urban Villages are rising.! ! Modern cities with the communal values, practices & preferences of villages ! ! ! ! !
- 16. Urban Economy! ! ! ! ! ! Village Values!
- 17. Denser, community living ! Walking, Biking, Public Transport ! Urban shopping experiences ! Wired ! citizens and businesses ! Craft, Local Products ! Meaningful work ! Sharing, Lower consumerism ! Urban Village! Makers, Small business !
- 18. ! ! ! ! Why? ! ! ! ! !
- 19. ! 1. Economic advantage ! ! ! Whenever a city doubles in size, every measure of economic activity increases by 15% per capita. ! Cities make us more productive, and life, often better. ! !
- 20. ! 2. Social instinct ! ! ! The “suburban era” only represents .001% of our time on earth.! ! Humans grew up in villages, and we are instinctually drawn to ! communal life, practices & values.! ! !
- 21. ! ! ! Uncommon times:! ! Post-war culture & economics! are ending.! ! +! ! 3rd industrial revolution ! is beginning. ! ! ! !
- 22. ! ! ! 3rd Industrial revolution ! is now beginning.! ! ! !
- 23. ! ! ! Engine driven! economy! 1850’s! ! ! ! ! ! ! Electricity! driven! economy! 1880’s! ! ! ! ! ! ! Digital driven! economy! 1990’s! ! ! !
- 24. ! ! 2005 ! ! ! ! ! 2013 ! ! !
- 25. ! ! 2005 ! ! ! ! ! 2013 ! ! ! ! ! Tipping point in the digital revolution ! ! !
- 26. ! ! ! ! Two consequences ! ! ! ! !
- 27. ! ! 1. Social ! ! !
- 28. ! ! Villages defined ! and constrained by location! ! ! ! ! Villages span geographies and identities ! ! ! ! ! 200,000BC - 2005 ! ! ! ! ! 2005 - ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! !
- 29. ! ! 2. Economic ! ! !
- 30. ! ! 1960 - 2005 ! ! ! ! ! 2005 - ! ! ! Tectonic shift!
- 31. 1960-2005! ! Technology ! is Niche!
- 32. 1960-2005! ! Technology ! is Niche! Innovation hubs:! Silicon Valley! Sources of capital:! Sand Hill Road! Industries:! IT primary! Tools of production:! Software, servers! Cost/time of production:! Long & costly! Output:! Client side, Hardware ! Method of distribution:! Retail, Web! Mobile:! > 2B, 2G!
- 33. 1960-2005! ! ! Less than 3% GDP globally!
- 34. 2005 –! ! Technology is Unbounded!
- 35. Sources of capital:! Sand Hill, Angels, P2P! 2005 –! ! Technology is Unbounded! Industries:! All! Tools of production:! API, Cloud, Open Source! Cost/time of production:! Short & Cheap! Output:! Software, Apps, Hardware ! Mobile:! 6B, 3/4G! Innovation hubs:! Global Cities! Method of distribution:! Web, Mobile, Social!
- 36. 2005 --! ! ! Unlimited impact ! on global GDP!
- 37. ! ! ! ! ! Urban Villages ! ! +! ! 3rd Industrial revolution! ! =! ! ! ! !
- 38. ! ! ! ! ! Radical opportunity! ! ! ! ! !
- 39. ! ! Urban! density ! = ! Higher economic! output ! ! ! ! ! Village ! values ! = ! New economic! behaviors! ! Urban! Economies! ! ! Village Values ! ! !
- 40. ! ! Digital Ubiquity ! ! ! ! ! Industries Disrupted ! ! ! Third Industrial! Revolution!
- 41. Urban ! +! Digital! Revolutions! ! ! Village Values ! ! !
- 42. Modern ! Village ! Economies!
- 43. Marketplace! ! Crowd! ! Social SaaS!
- 44. Marketplaces! Exchanges of goods and services.! ! ! Why now?! ! SMBs & Makers! Gig Economy! Mobile & Web penetration! Sharing Economy! Urbanization! ! ! Village Values ! !
- 45. Crowd! Sourcing money or information via the crowd.! ! ! Why now?! ! Mobile & Web penetration! SMBs & Makers! Financial inefficiencies! Global Markets ! ! ! Village Values ! !
- 46. Social SaaS! Community driven, ! low friction ! Software as a Service.! ! ! Why now?! ! Cloud! Open Source! Mobile & Web penetration! API! Machine Learning! !! ! Village Values ! !
- 47. ! ! ! ! Three principles for ! ! Marketplaces! Crowd! Social SaaS! ! In our new era ! ! ! ! !
- 48. Mission! ! Humans seek purpose and meaning. ! ! Employees want to build towards mission and are best motivated intrinsically. ! ! Customers are most loyal when they have a sense a of belonging. ! ! !
- 49. Proprietary Supply ! ! ! There is near infinite demand on the web for unique & valuable product, services or information.! ! If your good can be found elsewhere, the web is hyper efficient at surfacing alternatives. ! ! !
- 50. Global Orientation! ! ! The world is now ! wired and flat.! ! Customers and competition will come from every ! corner of the globe. ! ! ! ! !
- 51. The Village Economy! ! Terrence Rohan! @tmrohan! ! ! !
- 52. References! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! • http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/06/why-cities-are-growing-faster-suburbs/2420/! • http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/23/u-s-cities-growing-faster-than-suburbs/! • http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class! • http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/19/magazine/19Urban_West-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&! • http://usa.streetsblog.org/2013/02/27/for-eighth-year-in-a-row-the-average-american-drove-fewer-miles-in-2012/! • http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/10/us/use-of-public-transit-in-us-reaches-highest-level-since-1956-advocates-report. html! • http://www.businessinsider.com/shopping-malls-are-going-extinct-2014-1! • http://www.theguardian.com/social-enterprise-network/2014/feb/19/generation-y-millennials-job-seekers-money-financial- security-fulfilment! • http://www.forbes.com/sites/groupthink/2013/07/03/forget-the-jobs-report-focus-on-the-freelance-economy/! • https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/ media_entertainment_strategic_planning_4_2_trillion_opportunity_internet_economy_g20/#chapter1! • http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-internet-everything-hire-rise-sharing-economy! • http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-05/us-rents-rise-new-all-time-high-homeownership-rate-stuck-18-year-low ! • http://www.apta.com/mediacenter/pressreleases/2013/Pages/130311_Ridership.aspx! • http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124294047987244803! • http://www.oracle.com/oms/retail/wp-evolution-experience-retailing-1896570.pdf! • http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats/a#uniquesubscribers! • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution! • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution!
- 53. References! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! • http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/dotcom/Insights%20and%20pubs/MGI/Research/Technology%20and %20Innovation/The%20great%20transformer/MGI_Impact_of_Internet_on_economic_growth.ashx! • http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/companies/napster_music_industry/!