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Smart machines -esitys Tampereella 02/2016

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Smart Machines -esitys Tampereen teknillinen yliopisto, 05.02.2016

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Smart machines -esitys Tampereella 02/2016

  1. 1. Smart machines The smart machine era will be the most disruptive in the history of IT. Gartner (8th Oct 2014) © Immo Salo 05.02.2016
  2. 2. Tulevaisuus on täällä! ED-209, Robocop, 1987
  3. 3. Gartner ja Smart Machines ● Gartner on listannut älykkäät koneet (Smart Machines) 10 tulevaisuuden strategisten teknologioiden joukkoon useana vuotena peräkkäin www.smartmachines.fi
  4. 4. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014 ● Web-Scale IT ● Smart Machines ● 3D Printing ● The Era of Personal Cloud ● Software-Defined Anything ● Mobile Device Diversity and Management ● Mobile Apps and Applications ● The Internet of Everything ● Hybrid Cloud & IT as a Service Broker ● Cloud/Client Architecture www.smartmachines.fi
  5. 5. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015 ● Computing Everywhere ● The Internet of Things ● 3D Printing ● Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible Analytics ● Context-Rich Systems ● Smart Machines ● Cloud/Client Computing ● Software-Defined Applications and Infrastructure ● Web-Scale IT ● Risk-Based Security and Self-Protection www.smartmachines.fi
  6. 6. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2016 ● The Device Mesh ● Ambient User Experience ● 3D Printing Materials ● Information of Everything ● Advanced Machine Learning ● Autonomous Agents and Things ● Adaptive Security Architecture ● Advanced System Architecture ● Mesh App and Service Architecture ● Internet of Things Platforms www.smartmachines.fi
  7. 7. Smart Machines kirjoituksia Kirjoituksia aiheesta “Smart Machines”: ● How Smart, Connected Products Are Transforming Competition Harvard Business Review, Nov 2014 ● Hype Cycle of Smart Machines released Gartner, Jul 2014 ● McKinsey writes about Smart Machines McKinsey Quarterly, Sep 2014 ● Economist writes about Smart Machines “The Age of Smart Machines”, May 2014 ● Cool Vendors of Smart Machines Gartner, Apr 2015 www.smartmachines.fi
  8. 8. Klassikkokirja 1 www.smartmachines.fi The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies Brynjolfsson, McAfee
  9. 9. Uusi klassikkokirja? www.smartmachines.fi Rise Of The Robots: Technology and the threat of a jobless future (May 2015) M. Ford
  10. 10. Määritelmiä: Smart Machines “Smart machines include robots, self-driving cars and other cognitive computing systems that are able to make decisions and solve problems without human intervention.” Techtarget.com “[Smart Machines are]...contextually aware, intelligent personal assistants, smart advisors (such as IBM Watson), advanced global industrial systems and public availability of early examples of autonomous vehicles” Gartner “...a smart machine is an intelligent device that uses machine-to-machine (M2M) technology. Smart machines include robots, self-driving cars and other cognitive computing systems that are able to make decisions and solve problems without human intervention.” Techtarget.com www.smartmachines.fi
  11. 11. Viitekehys: Smart Machines 1. Observe learn by observing 2. Tests test the real world 3. Autonomous behave autonomously 4. Probabilistic making decision based on probabilities 5. Predicts predict the future based on models and calculations 6. Purpose narrow in purpose, each machine has its own purpose and there are different machines for different purposes 7. Understands appear to understand concepts, relationships, causalities 8. Human reaction “I didn’t know a machine could do that!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4kfdkCFQ2g www.smartmachines.fi Gartner tried to answer the question in July 2014
  12. 12. Viitekehys jatkuu ● Smart Machines are technologies that: ○ Deal with high levels of complexity and uncertainty ○ Decision making based on probabilistics ○ Understanding of task-specific contexts ○ Multitude of uses ○ Some gauge person’s feelings by examining facial movements etc. http://gartnernews.com/smart-machine-disruption-will-dominate-this-decade/ www.smartmachines.fi
  13. 13. Mikä tekee koneista älykkäitä? http://www.slideshare.net/GarimaNanda/seminar-smart-machine www.smartmachines.fi Intelligent capable to operate autonomously Secure avoid and correct processing errors Managed learn and anticipate future events Connected interact with other machines and systems
  14. 14. Smart Machines ja 3 D:tä http://gartnernews.com/three-emerging-trends-drive-digital-business/ www.smartmachines.fi Gartner puhuu myös käsitteestä “Smart Things”
  15. 15. Uudet teknologiat ovat mahdollistajia ● Älykkäiden koneiden idea ei ole uusi, mutta nyt niiden aika on koittanut → Täydellinen myrsky teknologioiden ja käsitteiden kypsyysaste on riittävä www.smartmachines.fi
  16. 16. Innovaatiot ovat avain ● Tärkeimmät innovaatiot ovat niin sanottuja yhdisteleviä innovaatioita (combinatory innovations*) ● Luova tuho on niiden kohtalo, jotka eivät ole kykeneviä muutokseen ● Muutosvauhti voi olla yllättävän nopea * The Second Machine Age, Brynjolfsson & McAfeewww.smartmachines.fi
  17. 17. Muutoksen vaiheet 1. Ihmettely ○ “These machines are amazing!” 2. Innovaatiot, vaihe 1 ○ “Changing the way business is done within existing industries” 3. Innovaatiot, vaihe 2 ○ “Creating new industries” 4. Innovaatiot, vaihe 3 ○ “Destruction of old industries / business models” 5. Ekosysteemien aika (The Age of Ecosystems) ○ “High-technologization of industries, ecosystem-level competition” www.smartmachines.fi
  18. 18. Teknologia ja ajoitus ● Smart Machines ilmiönä rakentuu suurelta osin olemassa olevien teknologioiden ja innovaatioiden varaan ○ Cloud computing ○ Big data ○ Internet of Everything ○ Robotics www.smartmachines.fi
  19. 19. Tutut käsitteet taustalla Cloud computing ● IaaS ● PaaS ● SaaS XaaS Big Data ● Volume ● Variety ● Velocity multiple other V’s Internet of Everything ● People ● Things ● Places ● Information Robotics ● Industrial ● Service ● Consumer Smart Machines yhdistelee 2000-luvun tuttuja ilmiöitä www.smartmachines.fi
  20. 20. www.smartmachines.fi
  21. 21. Cloud Computing is the brain powering Smart Machines
  22. 22. Pilvipalvelut
  23. 23. Hypestä normiksi
  24. 24. Pilvipalveluiden rooli ● Pilvipalvelut ovat älykkäiden koneiden mahdollistaja “Imagine a robot that finds an object that it's never seen or used before—say, a plastic cup. The robot could simply send an image of the cup to the cloud and receive back the object’s name, a 3-D model, and instructions on how to use it” J. Kuffner, Google IEEE: Jan 2011, http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/robotics-software/cloud-roboticswww.smartmachines.fi
  25. 25. www.smartmachines.fi
  26. 26. Division of execution www.smartmachines.fi Onboard execution ➢ Simple, repetitive tasks ➢ Motorics ➢ Tasks related to events that always demand immediate response Cloud execution ➢ Complex tasks ➢ Machine learning ➢ Tasks that demand compute- or memory-intensive analytics
  27. 27. Quote: Ken Goldberg, Berkeley University “Robot learning is going to be greatly accelerated. Putting it a little simply, one robot can spend 10,000 hours learning something, or 10,000 robots can spend one hour learning the same thing.” http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/25/the-robot-in-the-cloud-a-conversation-with-ken-goldbergwww.smartmachines.fi
  28. 28. Koneoppiminen ja Youtube ● Robots learning to cook by watching Youtube www.smartmachines.fi http://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.6209v5.pdf Researchers have come up with a new way to teach robots how to use tools simply by watching videos on YouTube. Robot Learning Manipulation Action Plans by ‘Watching’ Unconstrained Videos from the World Wide Web Image Credit: Erik Charlton/Flickr
  29. 29. Advanced Analytics provides wisdom to Smart Machines
  30. 30. Mitä tarkoittaa big data? http://aws.amazon.com/kinesis/www.smartmachines.fi
  31. 31. Datan ulottuvuudet http://aws.amazon.com/kinesis/www.smartmachines.fi
  32. 32. Big datan rooli ● Esimerkki pilvipalveluista “Amazon Kinesis is a fully managed service for real-time processing of streaming data at massive scale. Amazon Kinesis can collect and process hundreds of terabytes of data per hour from hundreds of thousands of sources, allowing you to easily write applications that process information in real-time, from sources such as web site click- streams, marketing and financial information, manufacturing instrumentation and social media, and operational logs and metering data.” An Inside Look at Google BigQuery http://aws.amazon.com/kinesis/www.smartmachines.fi
  33. 33. Big datan rooli ● Edistynyt analytiikka auttaa mallintamaan ilmiötä ja ennustamaan tulevaa “Machine learning–mining historical data with computer systems to predict future trends or behavior–touches more and more lives every day. Search engines, online recommendations, ad targeting, virtual assistants, demand forecasting, fraud detection, spam filters–machine learning powers all these modern services. But these uses barely scratch the surface of what's possible.” Microsoft Azure Machine Learning http://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/machine-learning/www.smartmachines.fi
  34. 34. Esimerkki: IBM Watson ● IBM Watson on saatavilla palveluna (alk. 09/2014) “In the future a cleaning robot in the hospital corridor connected to Medical Watson might be able to give you more precise diagnosis and prognosis than the doctor who you are waiting to see.” www.smartmachines.fi
  35. 35. IBM Watson ja älykäs lelu “CogniToy works by pressing a button on its belly and asking it questions. The toy connects via Wi-Fi to the Watson servers, looks up the answer, and responds.” Tech.co www.smartmachines.fi
  36. 36. Robotics makes digitalization visible in production, services, transportation and all other areas of life
  37. 37. Teollisuusrobottien myyntitilasto Worldrobotics.org: http://www.worldrobotics.org/uploads/tx_zeifr/June_04__2014_PI_IFR_World_Robot_Market.pdf Record high sales of industrial robots in 2013 www.smartmachines.fi
  38. 38. “Turning to the projections for the period of 2013 to 2016, sales forecast which were provided by companies worldwide indicate an increase to about 94,800 units with an estimated value of US$ 17.1 billion. Thereof, about 28,000 robots for defense applications are expected to be sold in the period of 2013 to 2016. They are followed by milking robots with about 24,500 units. However, this is probably a rather conservative estimate. These two service robot groups make up 55% of the total forecast of service robots at the current time.” www.smartmachines.fi Palvelurobotit Worldrobotics.org: http://www.ifr.org/service-robots/statistics/
  39. 39. Kotitalousrobotit Worldrobotics.org: http://www.ifr.org/service-robots/statistics/www.smartmachines.fi ...vacuum and floor cleaning, lawn- mowing robots, and entertainment and leisure robots, including toy robots, hobby systems, education and research.
  40. 40. Droonit https://www.sensefly.com/drones/ebee.html No piloting skills required The eBee takes off, flies and lands autonomously. The artificial intelligence incorporated in the senseFly autopilot continuously analyzes data from the Inertial Measurement Unit and the onboard GPS and takes care of all aspects of the flight mission. www.smartmachines.fi
  41. 41. Droonit https://atmelcorporation.wordpress.com/2014/10/08/gartner-smart-machine-disruption-will-dominate-this-decade/www.smartmachines.fi Työpaikkoja häviää ja uusia syntyy Gartner
  42. 42. ● 1960-luvulla Suomen metsissä työskenteli enimmillään 200 000 metsätyöntekijää ● 2000-luvulla Suomen metsissä työskentelee noin 5000- 10 000 metsätyöntekijää Vähennys siis jopa > 95 %! www.smartmachines.fi Esimerkki: metsätalous Worldrobotics.org: http://www.ifr.org/service-robots/statistics/
  43. 43. ● 2010-luvulla Suomen teillä ajaa noin 100 000 ammattikuljettajaa ● Montako luulet heitä olevan vuonna 2050? www.smartmachines.fi Esimerkki: logistiikka Worldrobotics.org: http://www.ifr.org/service-robots/statistics/
  44. 44. Kuluttajarobotiikka https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/jibo-the-world-s-first-family-robot Jibo kickstarter project, shipping 2015 What is Jibo? It’s a little pod with a motorized swivel, equipped with cameras, microphones and a display. It recognizes faces and voices, and can act as a personal assistant by setting reminders, delivering messages and offering to take group photos. It also serves as a telepresence robot for video chat. Time.com www.smartmachines.fi
  45. 45. Internet of Things There are 50 to 500 billion connected devices in 2020 IDC, General Electric
  46. 46. Smart, connected things ● Harward Business Review (Nov 2014) “Embedded sensors, processors, software, and connectivity in products, coupled with a product cloud in which product data is stored and analyzed and some applications are run, are driving dramatic improvements in product functionality and performance” www.smartmachines.fi HBR: https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-smart-connected-products-are-transforming-competition
  47. 47. IBM SyNAPSE chip ● Siru, joka matkii aivojen rakennetta (esiteltiin 08/2014) IBM: http://www.research.ibm.com/cognitive-computing/neurosynaptic-chips.shtml The architecture can solve a wide class of problems from vision, audition, and multi-sensory fusion, and has the potential to revolutionize the computer industry by integrating brain-like capability into devices where computation is constrained by power and speed. www.smartmachines.fi
  48. 48. Google Brain ● Tekoäly, Artificial Intelligence (AI) saa nyt paljon huomiota www.smartmachines.fi http://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.6209v5.pdf Building High-level Features Using Large Scale Unsupervised Learning Our high-level detectors also outperform standard baselines in terms of recognition rates, achieving 74.8% and 76.7% on cat and human body respectively. In comparison, best linear filters (sampled from the training set) only achieve 67.2% and 68.1% respectively. Stanford & Google -paper Jul 2012 Cat face drawn by computer base on looking at cat images from Youtube.
  49. 49. Go-peli "Many Go players see the game as the final bastion of human dominance over computers.", Wired 2014 http://www.wired.com/2014/05/the-world-of-computer-go/
  50. 50. Go-peli "A computing system developed by Google researchers has beaten a top human player at the game of Go", Wired 2016 http://www.wired.com/2016/01/in-a-huge-breakthrough-googles-ai-beats-a-top-player-at-the-game-of-go/
  51. 51. Intel Edison ● Muistatko Raspberry Pi:n? ● Intel Edison kehittää minikokoisen tietokoneen ajatusta eteenpäin ● Sovitettavissa lähes mihin tahansa (leveys vain 35 mm) Intel: http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/do-it-yourself/edison.html The Intel® Edison development platform is the first in a series of low-cost, product-ready, general purpose compute platforms that help lower the barriers to entry for entrepreneurs in the Internet of Things (IoT). www.smartmachines.fi 3,5 cm
  52. 52. Particle (aikaisemmin Spark) ● Particle is a Wi-Fi and cellular development kits for connecting devices and “things” to internet Particle: www.particle.iowww.smartmachines.fi
  53. 53. The Smart Machine era will be the most disruptive in the history of IT. Gartner Oct 2013
  54. 54. Smart, connected products ● Physical components ○ Example: The core product itself ● Smart components ○ Example: Intel Edison, Raspberry Pi ● Connectivity ○ Example: Particle www.smartmachines.fi by HBR HBR: https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-smart-connected-products-are-transforming-competition
  55. 55. Smart Machines -kategoriat, 1 ● Movers ○ Example: Google “Self-Driving car” ● Doers ○ Example: Rethinking Robotics “Baxter” ● Sages ○ Example: IBM “Watson” IBM: Oct 2013, http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/blog/rise-smart-machines-nothing-fear-now-austinwww.smartmachines.fi by IBM
  56. 56. Movers Google Self-Driving Car: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_carwww.smartmachines.fi Google Driverless Car
  57. 57. Tulevaisuuden liikenne “...vuonna 2025 liikenteen kotimainen palvelumarkkina on 5 miljardia euroa ja työllistää 50 000 henkilöä” http://www.elisa.net/tulevaisuuden-liikenne/
  58. 58. Doers Rething robotics: http://www.rethinkrobotics.com/baxter/www.smartmachines.fi Baxter
  59. 59. Sages IBM: http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.htmlwww.smartmachines.fi IBM Watson beating top human players in Jeopardy 2011
  60. 60. Smart Machines -kategoriat, 2 ● Expert systems (sages) ○ Example: IBM “Watson” ● Autonomous robots (movers, doers) ○ Example: Google “Self-Driving car” ● Intelligent assistants (helpers?) ○ Examples: Apple “Siri”, Microsoft “Cortana” Technavio: Oct 2014, http://www.technavio.com/blog/know-your-robots-top-three-types-of-smart-machinewww.smartmachines.fi by Technavio
  61. 61. Smart Machines -kategoriat www.smartmachines.fi Categories source: IBM Categories source: Technavio Sages Expert Systems Movers Autonomous Robots Doers Intelligent Assistants
  62. 62. Asiantuntijuus automatisoituna www.smartmachines.fi Technavio: Oct 2014, http://www.technavio.com/blog/know-your-robots-top-three-types-of-smart-machine Problem Definition System Design Formalization System Implementation System Validation
  63. 63. Autonomisen robotin ominaispiirteet ● Self-Maintenance ● Ability to sense the environment (sensors) ● Ability to perform physical tasks (motorics) ● Ability to navigate point to point (movement) www.smartmachines.fi Technavio: Oct 2014, http://www.technavio.com/blog/know-your-robots-top-three-types-of-smart-machine
  64. 64. Eettinen ohjelmointi? Gartner: Smart Machines Require Ethical Programming: ● Level 0: Non-Ethical Programming ○ no explicit considerations for the behavior of technology ● Level 1: Ethical Oversight ○ no ethical programming, but deployment and usage may have ethical considerations ● Level 2: Ethical Programming ○ responsibility is shared between the user, the service provider and the designer ● Level 3: Evolutionary Ethical Programming ○ ethical programming as part of a machine that learns and evolves autonomously ● Level 4: Machine-Developed Ethics ○ smart machines become self-aware, they will need to be raised and taught and their ethics need to evolve Gartner: http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3007417www.smartmachines.fi
  65. 65. Virtuaaliset assistentit First Generation based on text, low-quality end-user interface Second Generation interactive moving, cartoon type characters, text-to-text, only little speech Third Generation animation, responses to speech, functionality to measure response accuracy Fourth Generation quality animated characters, dashboards, analytics, mobile solutions, high accuracy Fifth Generation 3D images, extraordinary accuracy, requests feedback, full speech-to-speech support www.smartmachines.fi Technavio: Oct 2014, http://www.technavio.com/blog/know-your-robots-top-three-types-of-smart-machine
  66. 66. Wearables, augmented reality “Clothing and accessories incorporating computer and advanced electronic technologies” Wikipedia, Sep 2014 www.smartmachines.fi Microsoft HoloLens Apple Watch
  67. 67. Wearables, kategoriat 1. Lifestyle ○ enhancing and simplifying everyday tasks and activities 2. Entertainment ○ providing enjoyment and entertainment to the user 3. Health & Fitness ○ giving insight to the user by showing personal body data www.smartmachines.fi http://wearableworldnews.com/2014/05/06/wearable-world-taxonomy
  68. 68. Eksoskeletonit ● “A powered exoskeleton, also known as powered armor, exoframe, or exosuit, is a mobile machine consisting primarily of an outer framework (akin to an insect's exoskeleton) worn by a person, and powered by a system of motors or hydraulics that delivers at least part of the energy for limb movement.” Wikipedia ● Gaining a lot of attention with huge possibilities to offer (ie ReWalk*) www.smartmachines.fi http://wearableworldnews.com/2014/05/06/wearable-world-taxonomy *ReWalk helps paralyzed people to walk again. It had a successful IPO on Nasdac in Sep 2014
  69. 69. Älykkäiden koneiden rooli taloudessa ● Assist people ● Advise people ● Observe and help people ● Extend people ● Replace people? ... IBM: Oct 2013, http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/blog/rise-smart-machines-nothing-fear-now-austinwww.smartmachines.fi
  70. 70. Kuka omistaa älykkään koneen? “It’s John Deere’s tractor, folks. You’re just driving it.” Wired ... Wired: http://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/www.smartmachines.fi
  71. 71. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs.pdf
  72. 72. Työn tulevaisuus? Oxford Martin School: Sep 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf “According to our estimate, 47 percent of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two“ The future of employment: how suspectible are jobs to computerisation? Frey & Osborne, Oxford Martin School www.smartmachines.fi
  73. 73. Työpaikkoja häviää varmasti http://www.computerworld.com/article/2691607/one-in-three-jobs-will-be-taken-by-software-or-robots-by-2025.html “One in three jobs will be taken by [Smart Machines] by 2025“ Peter Sondergaard, Gartner research director, Oct 2014 www.smartmachines.fi
  74. 74. Vielä tarvetta ihmisillekin? http://www.forbes.com/sites/darden/2015/01/12/the-ai-revolution-will-humanize-businesses/www.smartmachines.fi “The predictions from experts at MIT, IBM and Oxford are that humans still will be needed for jobs requiring complex critical thinking, creativity, innovative thinking, and high emotional and social engagement with other humans, as well as performing customized manual tasks requiring physical dexterity.” Forbes, Jan 2015, Ai Revolution Will Humanize Businesses
  75. 75. www.smartmachines.fi twitter.com/immon What next? ● Innovaatiot ● Investoinnit ● Luova tuho ● Uutta osaamista tarvitaan

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