Urban-Rural Food Systems Linkages and Transformation
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James Thurlow SPECIAL EVENT Urban Food Systems for Better Diets, Nutrition, and Health MAY 17, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
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Urban-Rural Food Systems Linkages and Transformation
- 1. Urban Food Systems and Urban-Rural Linkages Olivier Ecker and James Thurlow IFPRI Policy Seminar “Urban Food Systems for Better Diets, Nutrition, and Health” IFPRI, Washington DC | 17 May 2019
- 2. Most rural people today live close to cities 30% 14% 30% 30% 37% 28% 19% 22% 22% 28% 20% 14% 34% 22% 38% 35% 35% 38% 44% 35% 36% 10% 29% 6% 12% 6% 3% 23% Global population Low income Lower-middle income Upper-middle High income South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Larger cities (>500,000) Smaller cities (50,000-500,000) Peri-urban (<1 hour to city) Remote rural (>1 hour to city) Global population distribution in 2015 Source: Cattaneo et al. 2019 Urban agglomerations Rural areas
- 3. Much of the food system lies beyond the farm 11.7% 41.7% 28.0% 29.1% 37.9% 21.1% 30.1% 25.5% 13.7% 13.4% 29.1% 17.5% 27.2% 57.8% 40.9% 49.2% 47.7% 36.0% 39.9% 40.4% 26.4% 32.0% 49.2% 30.3% Egypt Ethiopia Mozambique Malawi Niger Nigeria Rwanda Uganda Bangladesh Indonesia Myanmar Vietnam AFRICA ASIA Downstream AFS is a large part of the economy (GDP) AFS lengthens as countries develop 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 DownstreamshareofAFS GNI per capita Farmers Processors Aggregators Traders Consumers Exporters Food Services Input suppliers Agri-Food System (AFS) Source: Thurlow et al. 2019
- 4. Urban growth is transforming food systems Urban share of food product consumption in 2010 Sub-Saharan Africa 36% 45% 36% 55% 55% 42% 62% 58% 44% Population All foods Cereals, pasta Dairy, milk Meat, fish Fruits, vegetables Food services Beverages Other foods South Asia 31% 37% 32% 40% 40% 39% 50% 42% 38% Population All foods Cereals, pasta Dairy, milk Meat, fish Fruits, vegetables Food services Beverages Other foods Source: World Bank Global Consumption Database
- 5. Urban economies cannot develop alone Findings from our African case studies • Without supporting investments, many African cities struggle to absorb rural migrants, leading to an urbanization of poverty • When urban investments displace investments in rural agriculture it leads to higher poverty, even in urban areas • Investments in small towns are key (higher poverty rates; stronger linkages to rural/peri-urban agriculture) Source: e.g., Dorosh & Thurlow 2014; Thurlow et al. 2016
- 6. Our Approach Consumer Demand 1 Food Demand- Supply Linkages 2 Urban-Rural Transformation 3 Policy Coordination 4Food System Dynamics Study determinants of consumer choices, and identify pathways to better diets for urban poor Evaluate interventions to enhance value chains of nutritious foods for urban poor Economywide analysis of policies and investments to promote heathy food systems and economic transformation Support ministries and municipalities in designing policies and development plans