Presented by Claudia Ringler on February 11, 2019

1. Sudan and the Future of African
Agriculture:
Claudia Ringler
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
Khartoum University, February 11, 2019
Potential for Nexus Solutions

2. 2
Drivers of Agricultural Growth in Africa
Drivers of Agricultural Growth in Africa

3. Growth in Populations: Africa Leads
(UN medium variant forecast, bn)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2019
2050
2100
Sudan’s pop growth prediction
(UN med var, mn)
Source: UN DESA (2017)

4. 44%
56%
65%
35%
RURAL URBAN
32%
68%
47%
53%
RURAL URBAN
Urbanization exerts pressure on food systems
(green: rural --- orange: urban)
• Despite rapid urbanization, rural population in Sudan will increase by a further 10 million
by 2050 (urban by 27 million)
• Diet and nutrition transitions taking place due to urbanization
Sudan 2020
Global Global
Sudan 2050
Source: UN DESA (2017)

5. Youth unemployment and working poverty persist
25% of Northern Africa’s and 70% of SSA’s youth are either unemployed
or working but poor (2016) Source: ILO 2016

6. Conflicts persist, especially in Africa
• Food insecurity and lack of nutrition are cause and consequence of conflict
• % of hunger and undernutrition increasingly concentrated in conflict-affected countries
• Climate change, epidemics, and food price spikes increase risk of civil conflict
Source: Breisinger, Ecker and Trinh Tran 2015
Cross-country correlation between Global Hunger Index and violent civil conflict index, Africa

7. Agriculture is the key risk factor for our environment,
here proxied as planetary boundaries
Source: Steffen et al. 2016

8. Climate Change is a key driver with high uncertainty
Sources: IPCC and NBI

9. Stunted children
(millions)
Overweight children
(millions)
Undernourished population
(millions)
Hunger and undernutrition persist AND alarming rise in
overnutrition
Source: FAO 2017, UNICEF/WHO/WB 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
Developing countries Africa Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
Developing countries Africa Asia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Africa Asia World

10. 13 December 2018 10
Why do we care about food security and nutrition,
particularly of children?

11. Selected nutrition indicators, Sudan
 38.2% of children affected by stunting (low height for age) in
2017, up from 34.1% in 2012  often irreversible impacts on
lifetime cognitive and learning abilities and huge cost to the economy
 16.3% of children affected by wasting in 2017 (low weight for
height)—key factors: low income, low maternal education,
geography, and gender; Interactions between climatic shocks and
conflict contribute to spikes in acute undernutrition in children,
including in Darfur, Sudan (28%)
 10 million Sudanese undernourished (2015-2017) (~25%)
 31% of women of child-bearing age were anemic in 2016
 Overweight in children doubled to 3% in 5 years and obesity in
adults stands at 7%
Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. (2018)

12. 0
10
20
30
40
50
Egypt South
Sudan
Sudan Kenya Ethiopia
2012 2017
Prevalence of childhood stunting, selected countries,
2012 and 2017
Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. (2018)

13. 13
Trends in Agricultural Production

14. Africa has the fastest growth in cereal production of
any continent since the early 1990s
Source: FAOSTAT

15. But per capita cereal production in Africa is still the
lowest in the world, signs of real growth since 2000
Source: FAOSTAT
• Per cap production in Africa < than 1960 * Growth driven by Eastern Africa
(includes Sudan)

16. Africa cereal growth still substantially driven by area
growth
Source: FAOSTAT
Average for 2012-2015
Annualized growth rates 2002-
2005 to 2012-2015
Tons Hectares Yield (kg/ ha)
Produc-
tion
Harvested
area
Yield
World 2,737,337,452 716,115,547 3,822 2.32 0.58 1.74
Africa 180,059,533 112,607,418 1,599 3.12 1.35 1.77
Americas 698,420,833 128,128,299 5,451 2.35 0.48 1.86
Asia 1,334,600,630 337,212,821 3,958 2.61 0.67 1.95
Europe 484,461,045 119,481,865 4,055 1.33 -0.12 1.45
Oceania 39,795,411 18,685,144 2,130 1.53 -0.12 1.66

17. Sub-regional yield growth in Africa: Northern Africa
slowing, Eastern Africa picking up growth
Source: FAOSTAT

18. Source: FAOSTAT
Average for 2012-2015
Annualized growth rates
2002-2005 to 2012-2015
Region Tons Hectares
Yield
(kg /
hect)
Produc-
tion
Har-
vested
area
Yield
Africa 180,059,540 112,607,422 1,599 3.12 1.35 1.77
Sub-Saharan Africa 141,451,409 99,644,682 1,420 3.59 1.47 2.12
Northern Africa 38,608,131 12,962,740 2,978 1.56 0.47 1.09
Eastern Africa 47,959,387 31,766,940 1,510 5.43 1.74 3.68
Middle Africa 9,417,656 9,270,609 1,016 5.03 3.41 1.62
Southern Africa 28,926,097 12,339,261 2,344 2.62 -0.60 3.22
Western Africa 55,148,269 46,267,872 1,192 2.49 1.55 0.94
Largest recent production performance in Eastern Africa

19. Source: Chatham House Resource Trade Database
Agricultural imports are correlated with exports of fossil
fuels
Exports Imports

20. Source: Chatham House Resource Trade Database
Agricultural trade balance worsened in Northern and
overall SSA, only Eastern Africa improved
Subregion Exports Imports
Net
exports Exports Imports
Net
exports
Yearly
export
growth
rate
Yearly
import
growth
rate
Total
change
in net
exports
Africa 29,453 27,929 1,524 59,559 76,226 -16,667 5.9 8.4 -18,191
Northern Africa 4,595 12,493 -7,898 10,805 34,046 -23,242 7.1 8.4 -15,344
Sub-Saharan Africa 24,858 15,436 9,422 48,754 42,179 6,575 5.6 8.4 -2,847
Eastern Africa 4,697 2,835 1,862 12,190 9,381 2,808 7.9 10.0 946
Middle Africa 1,161 1,618 -457 1,702 5,757 -4,054 3.2 10.6 -3,598
Southern Africa 9,839 5,161 4,678 15,643 11,300 4,343 3.9 6.5 -334
Western Africa 9,162 5,823 3,339 19,220 15,742 3,478 6.2 8.3 139
Averages 2000-2004
(constant 2015 US$ 000s)
Averages 2012-2016
(constant 2015 US$ 000s)
Change, 2000-2004 to 2012-
2016

21. 21
Future trends
Amy Vitale

22. Modeling Approach:
Quantitative Foresight Modeling – IFPRI’s IMPACT Model
 Linked climate, water, crop and economic
models
 Estimates of production, consumption,
hunger, and environmental impacts
Adapted from: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
(IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. IFPRI: Washington, DC.
Projections
out to 2050

23. Maize production, consumption, and net trade (mmt)
largely used for human consumption, growing needs for
supplying feed markets
- Centers of bubbles show indexed area (horizontal) and
yield (vertical) growth to 2050 in Africa for REFERENCE
(2010 = 1.0)
- Bubble sizes scaled to total regional production in 2050
- One-to-one line (red) for reference
Expansion of
maize production
dominated by
yield growth
Source: IFPRI 2019

24. Rice production, consumption, and net trade (mmt), of
growing interest to African consumers AND producers
- Centers of bubbles show indexed area (horizontal) and
yield (vertical) growth to 2050 in Africa for REFERENCE
(2010 = 1.0)
- Bubble sizes scaled to total regional production in 2050
- One-to-one line (red) for reference
Expansion of
rice production
dominated by
yield growth
Source: IFPRI 2019

25. Number of hungry people increases to 2030 as a result of
climate change, further likely impacts from civil strife
Source: Wiebe (2017); FAO,
Reality is 240 million hungry people in Africa in 2015-2017

26. Key Messages
1. Africa & Sudan face very high population growth
2. While urbanization is rapid, Sudan will still add a further 10
million to its rural population---will the country invest adequately
in rural growth or focus on the more rapid influx into cities?
3. While per capita production in 2015 was below 1960, growth
has picked up in East Africa, driven by a subset of countries,
including Ethiopia, which has now for a decade invested heavily
in agriculture, including irrigation

27. Key Messages
4. Agricultural growth will be too slow to cope with rapid
population growth. A result will increased net import
dependency for food crops these can be paid for with exports
of fossil fuels or cash crops
5. Childhood stunting at 38% is unacceptably high in Sudan
need a coordinated approach & movement to address this
6. The number of hungry and undernourished will increase at
least out to 2030 as a result of low growth + climate change;
civil strife and conflict will further increase food insecurity—and
the numbers across the region have already been going up for
several years, eradicating improvements gained during the
prior decade

28. 13 December 2018 28
Potential for Nexus Solutions

29. Nexus activities can change the pathway from direct
and indirect drivers to sustainability outcomes
Fan, 2014

30. 13 December 2018 30
National Nexus: Energy as the Entry Point

31. Main Nexus sector agencies: Sudan
Sector Name
Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture
Agriculture Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity
Agriculture Agricultural Research Corporation
Water Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity
Water Ministry of Agriculture
Water Dams Implementation Unit
Energy Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity
Energy Ministry of Energy and Mining/Petroleum and Gas
Energy National Center for Energy Research
Source: Berga et al. 2017.

32. Rural energy use changes with economic development
Barnes & Floor 1996

33. Food production depends on clean energy access
(and water)
1) Competition between domestic and productive uses of energy
(esp. biomass) in some contexts (e.g. Ethiopia)
2) Energy as a requirement for agricultural intensification and to
support nutrient-dense crops (irrigation, mechanization,
fertilizer)
3) Electrification as a potential catalyst of supply chain
development for nutrient-dense but highly perishable irrigated
crops (vegetables and fruits)

34. Energy transitions affect not only agriculture but also
the environment (including water) profoundly
1) Access to clean energy for all reduces pressure on deforestation which in turn
affects agro-ecosystems, gendered time allocation and—through affecting
climate change—everyone on the globe
2) Energy access not only increases agricultural productivity, but reduces
pressure on natural resources through enabling precision-agriculture practices
(laser land leveling, soil moisture sensors, etc.) and reduces postharvest
losses through cooling, storage and transportation of perishable products
3) Access to clean energy, without a strong policy environment, can lead to
further environmental degradation (unchecked irrigation development,
groundwater depletion, overapplication of chemicals)
4) Many agricultural mitigation activities are either highly water intensive
(biofuels) or increase the risk of water depletion and degradation (solar-
irrigation)

35. Large-scale
3.2 million ha
Small-scale
14.8 million ha
Total
18.0 million ha
Source: IFPRI
Agricultural transformation will accelerate in areas
where electricity and irrigation systems are jointly sited
Economic Irrigation potential

36. (a) Maize & flood irrigation (b) Vegetables & drip irrigation
Relative potential of diesel versus solar in SSA depends on
climate, crops, irrigation source & technology and energy
technology cost
Source: IFPRI

37. Agricultural transformation in Africa accelerates water pollution
and associated treatment costs (Ex. nitrogen loadings, absolute
2005, % growth to 2050)
Source: Xie and Ringler (2017).

38. What are key energy technologies for agricultural
transformation in Africa that need to be better assessed?
 Solar irrigation * Cold storage * Mobile phone chargers
 Cooking solutions * Agro-processing * Other rural industries
(f.ex. biogas) * Health and other rural
 Moisture sensors services
 Ag chemicals
PRODUCTION POST-
HARVEST
RURAL OFF-
FARM

39. Examples of Nexus interventions for Sudan
1) Seasonal weather forecasting system can reduce yield losses/
increase yields as inputs, in particular, irrigation water can be
applied at the right time
2) Invest in soil moisture sensors and yield sensors in irrigated areas
3) Use biogas from cow manure as a source of cooking, or invest in
solar home systems to access to clean energy in rural areas
4) Invest in solar-irrigation WITH governance mechanisms to avoid
groundwater depletion
5) Invest in multiple use water systems to support domestic and
productive uses
6) Invest in solar cold storage options for milk

40. 13 December 2018 40
Regional Nexus: The need for Trade and Cooperation

41. Regional collaboration around water, energy and food
is important for future adequate provision of resources
Source: Berga et al. 2017.

42. Ongoing regional cooperation is adequate
to minimize tradeoffs and exploit synergies
Source: Berga et al. 2017.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Strongly agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
Ethiopia Sudan Egypt

43. Source: Berga 2018
BN & WN JunctionC63
Sudan
Egypt
+
D46: Hassanb-Dongloa
D51: Middle Delta
D52: West Delta
D50: East Delta
D49: Middle Egypt
D48: Upper Egypt
D47: Toshka
D44: Khartoum-Tamaniat
D45: Tamaniat- HassanabC71
C70
C63
R24
C72
R25
R26
R27
C73
R28
R29
C74
R30
C75
R31
C76
C77
B1
B2
C78/
C79
B3
C80
C81
B4
B6
B5
C82
Nile DS HAD
Aswan I + Aswan II
Ensa
Nag Hammadi
Nile DS Naga Hammadi
Nile at Gaafra
Nile at Dagash
Nile US Assiut
Assiut
Nile at Hawatka DS Assuit
Nile at Baladela
M&I DDCairo
HAD
Nile at El Akhsas
Nile US HAD
Nile at Donglola
Merowe
Dal
Kajbar
Dagash
Shereig
Nile at Hassanab
Sabaloka
Nile at Tamaniat
Mediterranean Sea
Atbara Junction
E1
ModelSchematics,MainNileSub-basin
Source:BasedonENTRO,MSIOAStudy(2014)
Sample Node Link Network: Nile mainstem (ENMOS+)

44. Tradeoff Analysis Scenarios
Scenario Description
Full cooperation Basin-wide system optimization
Non-cooperation
Sectoral tradeoffs Sectoral tradeoff analysis which assumes no cooperation
between sectors
- HPP Hydropower is prioritized over irrigation
- IRRP Irrigation is prioritized over hydropower
Transboundary tradeoffs Cross-country tradeoff analysis which assumes no
cooperation between countries
- ETHP Ethiopia is prioritized over Sudan and Egypt
- SUDP Sudan is prioritized over Ethiopia and Egypt
- EGYP Egypt is prioritized over Sudan and Ethiopia Source: Berga 2018

45. Sectoral tradeoff analysis: Total
benefits lower when HP is prioritized
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Ethiopia Sudan+South
Sudan
Egypt Grand total
Total benefit (Million USD)
System optimization Hydropower prioritized Irrigation prioritized
Source: Berga 2018

46. Transboundary tradeoff analysis: Total benefits lower when
Egypt is prioritized (cooperation is optimal solution)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Ethiopia Sudan+South
Sudan
Egypt Grand total
Total benefit (Million USD)
System optimization Ethiopia prioritized
Sudan prioritized Egypt prioritized Source: Berga 2018

47. Conclusions—Nexus Solutions
1. Access to clean energy can accelerate agricultural growth
2. Access to clean energy can reduce water use in agriculture or deplete
water resources (governance is key), many national NEXUS solutions
exist
3. There are considerable sectoral and transboundary NEXUS trade-offs in
the Eastern Nile BasinTotal economic benefits in the basin are lower in
the case of noncooperation (sectoral prioritization)
4. A hydropower first strategy reduces total economic benefit. If investment
in agricultural R&D increase in proportion with investment in hydropower,
a focus on hydropower is even less advantageous, as other renewables
(wind and solar have substantial potential in the region)

48. Key Messages-Sudan
1. Need to focus on rural development to support rural livelihoods, address
stunting and maintain agricultural and other ecosystems this matters
not only for rural areas but for the entire country (i.e. also urban areas)
2. Accelerating access to clean energy is a key step in accelerating
agricultural transformation in Sudan
3. Careful irrigation expansion is critical to agricultural growth but requires
access to complementary inputs
4. Given the location of Sudan between Ethiopia and Egypt, there are
benefits from cooperation with both countries—cooperation outperforms
sectoral and national prioritization

49. Resource Materials
Africa Agriculture: IFPRI.org
Water-Energy-Food Nexus:
 Research Methods Guide: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/research-guide-water-
energy-food-nexus-analysis
 Knowledge Platform: https://www.water-energy-food.org/nexus-platform-the-
water-energy-food-nexus
Climate Change and Agriculture: http://www.ifpri.org/program/knowledge-lab-
climate-resilient-food-systems
Nutrition: https://globalnutritionreport.org/nutrition-profiles/africa/northern-
africa/sudan/#profile

50. Thanks to information and funding provided by
1) Tim Thomas for historic agricultural data for Africa
2) Khalid Siddig and colleagues
3) Global Futures for projections data
4) Helen Berga for her regional tradeoff analyses
5) CGIAR WLE for supporting energy work
6) GIZ / BMZ & EU for supporting Nexus work
Thank you for the invitation to the University of Khartoum