Eren Günhan Ulusoy IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES Ukraine One Year Later: the impact of the war on agricultural markets and food security Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) MAR 8, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EST

1. Effects of War and
Earthquake on Grain Sector
Dr. Eren Günhan ULUSOY

2. 03
01 02
04
Presentation Plan
Turkey Grain
Sector
Food Insecurity
Grain Corridor
Grain Markets & Flour
Industry After Earthquake

3. Turkey Grain
Sector
01

4. Wheat Production of Turkey
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Series1 Series2

5. Wheat Import of Turkey
0.95
0.35
1.1
1.8
1
0.10.2
2
3.53.3
2.4
4.7
3.43.4
4.6
3.8
3.4
4.5
5.3
8.38.5
7.8
8.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

6. Shares of Countries in Turkey's Wheat Import
15%
75%
67%
83%
88%
76%
58%
80% 83%
76%
84%
65%
70%
13%
3%
4%
3%
4%
3%
6%
6%
6%
15%
10%
21%
28%
72%
22%
28%
13%
8%
21%
36%
14% 11% 9% 6%
15%
2%
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
Russia Ukraine Others

7. Shares of Countries in Turkey's Wheat Import After War
80.44%
88.01% 91.15%
64.25%
72.07%
59.78%
75.22%
68.98% 66.33%
4.02%
5.69%
4.49%
34.70% 22.47%
38.32%
23.75%
30.08% 32.67%
15.54%
6.30% 4.36% 1.05%
5.46% 1.91% 1.03% 0.94% 1.00%
Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22
=
Russia Ukraine Others

8. Food Insecurity
02

10. 1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
Production Total Consumption
Milllion Tonnes
World Total Grains Production/Total Consumption

11. Grain Corridor
03

12. Grain Corridor
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
August
2022
September
2022
October
2022
November
2022
December
2022
January
2023
February
2023
China Spain Türkiye Italy The Netherlands

13. Grain Markets & Flour
Industry After Earthquake
04

14. State of Emergency
Cities

15. Tons of Wheat production from affected cities
Tons of Wheat Milling Capacity from affected cities
3.740.020
5.041.129
18,94%
Of the total wheat production of Turkey
15,97%
109 registered producers with a
total of 3.167 employees
State of Emergency Cities

16. Production came to a halt in the earthquake zone, where more
than 50 organized industrial zones operate and thousands of industrial
establishments are located. According to initial estimates, 11 milling
facilities were demolished in the region where approximately 150 of the
top 1000 industrial establishments operate.