O slideshow foi denunciado.
Seu SlideShare está sendo baixado. ×

Climate change impacts on agriculture and food security from a global economic perspective

Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio
Anúncio

Confira estes a seguir

1 de 9 Anúncio

Climate change impacts on agriculture and food security from a global economic perspective

Baixar para ler offline

Presentation by Keith Weibe, Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), on April 11, 2016 in Washington, DC

Presentation by Keith Weibe, Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), on April 11, 2016 in Washington, DC

Anúncio
Anúncio

Mais Conteúdo rRelacionado

Diapositivos para si (20)

Quem viu também gostou (12)

Anúncio

Semelhante a Climate change impacts on agriculture and food security from a global economic perspective (20)

Mais de International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (20)

Anúncio

Mais recentes (20)

Climate change impacts on agriculture and food security from a global economic perspective

  1. 1. Climate change impacts on agriculture and food security from a global economic perspective Keith Wiebe Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Co-leader, AgMIP Global Economics Team IFPRI Policy Seminar Washington DC, 11 April 2016
  2. 2. Partners in global modeling • The AgMIP Global Economics team • IFPRI, PIK, GTAP, Wageningen, EC/JRC, USDA/ERS, IIASA, FAO, OECD, UFL, NIES, … • Global Futures & Strategic Foresight – 15 CGIAR centers • AfricaRice, Bioversity, CIAT, CIFOR, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IFPRI, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish
  3. 3. Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: biophysical and economic effects General circulation models (GCMs) Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) Global economic models Δ Temp Δ Precip … Δ Yield (biophys) Δ Area Δ Yield Δ Cons. Δ Trade Climate Biophysical Economic Adapted from Nelson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014) RCPs SSPs Food security, etc
  4. 4. Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm) Climate change impacts in 2050 The case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and IMPACT (SSP2) Change in rainfed maize yields before economic adjustments Change in rainfed maize yields after economic adjustments Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
  5. 5. Climate change impacts in 2050 Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Yields Area Production Prices Trade Percentchangein2050 SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5 Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)
  6. 6. Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5) Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015 EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
  7. 7. Climate-related deaths in 2050 (SSP2, RCP8.5) Source: Springmann et al., The Lancet (2016)
  8. 8. Links to regional modeling • Regional results as inputs to global modeling • E.g. complementing pixel-level crop model results as part of scenario definition • Global results as inputs to regional modeling • E.g. world prices under different socioeconomic and climate scenarios • Goal is not a single mega-model, but a set of complementary tools for different scales
  9. 9. Thank you k.wiebe@cgiar.org

×