Presentation by Maximo Torero, Division Director of Markets, Trade and Institutions at IFPRI on August 31, 2016

1. Agricultural trade, and economic
growth in Myanmar
Comments
Maximo Torero (m.torero@cgiar.org)
Division Director
&
David Laborde
Senior Researcher and Theme Leader
Markets, Trade and Institutions Division - IFPRI

2. Comment 1: Looking at Exports (2010 situation)
• High specialization in products and partners
• 10 products – 90% : (1000USD)
• And partners 5 partners = 87%
• And very specific linkages:
• Natural Gas  Thailand
• Precious stones (emeralds)  Hong Kong
• Woods + Beans  India
Natural gas, in gaseous state 2,936,006
Precious stones 1,860,142
Beans of the species Vigna mungo ( 749,469
Topical wood spec 288,762
Wood, in the rough ( 265,160
Fish, 203,092
Natural rubber (excl. latex), in smoked sheets 194,936
Semi-milled/wholly milled rice, whether/not polished/glazed 156,049
Dried leguminous vegetables, n.e.s., shelled, whether/not
skinned/split 127,071
Sesamum seeds, whether/not broken 67,725
THA 3,177,247
HKG 1,611,753
IND 958,105
CHN 476,272
SGP 276,306

3. Comment 1: Looking at Imports (2010 situation)
• High specialization in partners (but SGP may reexport goods from
third parties)
• Five key partners = 76%
• Less specialization for products (normal, imports are more
diversified): 10 products – 50% of total imports
• Petroleum products (1bn)
• Drilling materials (important for Natural Gas and Mining)
• One key agricultural product: Palm oil (Indonesia and Malaysia but also massive re-
exports of these countries via Singapore)
CHN 1,128,478
SGP 1,122,550
THA 473,437
KOR 252,510
JPN 218,810

4. Comment 2: After 2010 – Imports
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CHN
HKG
IND
SGP
THA
• Increasing role of
china
• Mainly
manufacturing
goods including
cellular phones
In1000US$

5. Comment 2: After 2010 – Exports
• Increasing role of
china
• Big jump is linked
to precious stones
In1000US$
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CHN
IND
THA

6. Comment 2: After 2010 – Exports to China
• Distribution if we
remove precious
stones peak of
2014
• Start to export
natural gas to this
new market0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Natural gas, in gaseous state Wood, in the rough (excl. of 4403.1 Tin ores & concentrates
Articles of precious/semi-precious Ferro-nickel, in granular/powder fo Topical wood spec. in SH Note 1 to
Iron ores & concentrates (excl. roa Electrical energy (optional heading

7. Comment 2: After 2010 – Exports to India
• Important linkage
to pulses
• Rising demand
from India
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
71320 - Chickpeas
71390 - Dried leguminous
vegetables
71339 - Beans (Vigna spp.,
Phaseolus spp. (
71333 - Kidney beans
71331 - Beans of the species
Vigna mungo
440399 - Wood, in the
rough
440349 - Topical wood

8. Comment 2: After 2010 – Exports prices to India
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Export prices, per ton, to India
Beans of the species Vigna mungo Kidney beans
Beans (Vigna spp., Phaseolus spp. ( Dried leguminous vegetables
Chickpeas

9. Comment 3: Need for
nutrition-sensitive
policy environment
9
Domestic Price Volatility
Can lead to worse nutrition outcomes but
measures used to address this further threaten
efficient markets
Torero and von Braun, 2010
Trade policy
Standards for food composition
Reduced import tariffs for fruits & vegetables
Reduced imports for unhealthy food
(Thow, et al., 2010)
Quantifying the role of trade
agreements
(Such as the TPP) in the price of unhealthy foods and standards;
There are clear challenges
(Khan, et al., 2015)
Impacts of Economic Freedom
Economic freedom associated with higher BMIs
but also life expectancy in developing countries
Larson, Murphy, and Williamson, 2016
Data limitations
Exist along the value chains for processed foods
& demand for nutrients; constricting ability to
understand impacts
(Godfray and Robinson, 2015)

10. Policy Strategies: Increasing Incentives
10
For sustainable production, distribution, and consumption of diverse, nutritious and safe foods
Infrastructure investments to
improve access to markets
and reduce inequalities
Cash transfers to cushion from the
impacts of price shocks on
nutrition and insurance
mechanisms to increase resilience
.
Labelling harmonization and regulation to
promote nutritious inputs and final products
Nutrition sensitive policy environment
Targeted subsidies

12. Comment 4: Policy Strategies: Building Capacity
12
in the food and agriculture sector to improve nutrition
Increase consumer knowledge of
nutritious diets and diet-related risks
Storage and transportation
improvements to avoid loss and
spoilage
Increase information quality in terms
of food price spikes and the resulting
impact on food security
Social safety nets and
Efficient use of inputs (irrigation,
seeds, fertilizers, etc.)
Targeted policies to reduce
malnutrition
Property rights and land
ownership
Improved infrastructure
Increase access and availability of food