The Inspirational Story of Julio Herrera Velutini - Global Finance Leader
ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)
1. • Long term wealth creation solution
• A close-ended diversified equity fund that aims to provide capital appreciation by investing in equity
and equity related instruments.
* Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
HIGH RISK
(BROWN)
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
(BLUE) investors understand that
their principal will be at low risk
(YELLOW) investors understand that
their principal will be at medium risk
(BROWN) investors understand that
their principal will be at high risk
Note: Risk may be represented as:
Growth Fund - Series 2Growth Fund - Series 2NFO Period: July 14, 2014 to July 28, 2014
2. 2
CONTENT
Why Now?1
Identifying Growth Stocks in the Market4
Earnings and Market Performance2
Growth Opportunities3
ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 25
4. 4
Strong Government
IIP – Index of Industrial Production
HISTORY
Revival of
Economy
High IIP
Strong Government
Reforms
Quick Decision
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS
Low Interest Rates
Scams
Coalition Government
5. 5Source: MFI Explorer
The last time the market saw a majority mandate for any government was in 1984.
This slide is just for the understanding and reference of market movements over the period of time and the same shall not be construed as the
reflection of future market movements.
Sensex Performance Post 1984
S&P BSE Sensex
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Clear Majority in 1984
24% CAGR Return
(1st Dec’84 to 1st Jan’90)
6. 6
• 56% of total savings of Indian
household is invested in Real
Estate.
• Only 2.3% is invested in Equities.
Domestic Investors Underweight Equity
Source: RBI, SEBI, CLSA; Data as of March 14
Equities
2.30%
Total assets:
US $ 6 Trillion
Property
56.10%
Gold
14.20%
Bank
Deposits 15%
Cash
3.10%Insurance
funds 5.20%
Provident and
pension funds
4.10%
7. Source: www.nseindia.com; PE – Price to Earnings; PB – Price to Book 7
From PB & PE perspective, markets are trading at fair valuations.
Market Valuations
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nifty Trailing P/E Ratio Nifty Trailing P/B Ratio
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
8. 8
• Historically, MSCI India commands a premium vis-a-vis MSCI Emerging Market.
• From a valuation gap perspective, it still trades at a discount to long term average.
Market Valuations Low from FII’s Perspective
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MSCI India MSCI Emerging
PE Valuations of MSCI Emerging
and India Index
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PE Difference Average PE Difference
PE Valuations between MSCI India
and MSCI Emerging Market Index
Source: Bloomberg; PE – Price to Earnings
PE PE
11. Earnings, GDP Growth and
Market Performance
11Source: Edelweiss Securities Ltd; Motilal Oswal; ROE – Return on Equity; GDP – Gross Domestic Product
• There is a high correlation between Sensex Earnings and India’s real GDP growth
rate & Sensex movement
Sensex
EPS growth
GDP growth
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Sensex EPS Growth (%)
GDP Growth (%)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
FY97
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
Sensex ROE (%, LHS) S&P BSE Sensex
12. 12
Relationship between Earnings
and Stock Prices
This illustration is to explain the concept of stock price movement basis the change in earnings of the Company. Actual results may vary significantly from the ones mentioned
here. The stocks given above should not in any manner be construed as recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund/AMC may or may not have any future position in
these stocks. The performance of stocks would ultimately depend on various factors such as prevailing market conditions, global political scenario, exchange rate etc.
Increasing Earnings and
stock price outperformance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2003 2004 2005 2006
Asian Paints
EPS Growth Stock price growth (YoY)
Decreasing Earnings and
stock price underperformance
EPS Growth Stock price growth (YoY)
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Tata Steel
Source: Motilal Oswal
14. 14
• While some sectors have historically outperformed the BSE Sensex in terms of
earnings growth, what needs to be seen is, which ones will outperform going
forward.
Earnings Growth of Sensex and Sectors
Source: Kotak Securities; Indices are S&P BSE indices
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FMCG Bankex Oil & Gas Sensex
EPS Growth (%)
15. 15
Investment in Railway Infrastructure
• All the ancillary industries namely, wagons, steel, logistics, etc. are expected to
benefit from investment in Railway infrastructure.
*Three rail corridors of 334 km (Tori-Shivpuri-Kathotia in North Karanpura, Jharkhand; Bhupdeopur-Korichhaapar to Mand Raigadh mines in
Chhattisgarh; and Barpali-Jharsuguda in IB Valley, Odisha)
Coal Mines
Investment in
Railways
Power
Generation
Supply of coal to power
generation units has
been a major problem
A long-term solution would
be coal evacuation logistics*
by building additional
Railway lines.
This has potential for
enhancing power
generation
16. Defence Sector
16Source: India Budget, Axis Capital ; MoD – Ministry of Defence
• Obsolete defence equipment currently account for 50% vs. MoD norm of 30%.
• Strong order book for defence electronics worth Rs 750 bn over next 3 years vs
average of Rs 117 bn in the past 3 years.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500 (Rs bn)
Defence expenditure Growth (RHS)
17. Power Sector
17Source: Axis Capital
• We expect power demand to recover going forward as economic activity picks up.
• Power demand is artificially depressed due to industrial slowdown.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
Real GDP yoy growth Energy demand yoy growth
18. Insurance Sector
18Source: Espirito Santo Investment Bank Research
• There is a clear correlation between the GDP growth, savings rate and new
business premium.
• If the economy improves, savings rate as well as new business premiums are
expected to go up.
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
37%
39%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NewBusinessPremium(RsBn)
%ofGDP
First Year Premiums Financial Savings/GDP
19. 19Source: NCAER - National Council of Applied Economic Research
Implementation of GST
• According to a study by NCAER, a complete implementation of the GST could lift
GDP growth by 0.9-1.7 percentage points for all future years.
Eliminate
multiple taxes
Increase in
Tax collection
Implementation
of GST
Reduce the
prices of goods
and services
Improve eco-
nomic
efficiency
21. 21Source: Bloomberg, IPO - Initial Public Offer, OEM - Original Equipment Manufacturer
An Auto Ancillary Company
This slide is to illustrate the concept of identifying growth stocks in the market. There is also a possibility of the expected event not happening or some
other unforeseen event that may affect performance of the company. The performance of stocks would ultimately depend on various factors such as
prevailing market conditions, global political scenario, exchange rate etc.Investors are requested to note that there are various factors (both local and
international) that can have impact on the future performance and expectations of any company. Information given is available in public domain.
There is no assurance or guarantee of any company being able to sustain its performance in future
• The company had good record of
creating shareholder value since IPO.
• Management has proven track record in
acquiring companies and improving their
operations.
• Clientele include almost all the top OEM
players in passenger vehicle industry.
• Given the large opportunity in auto
ancillary space and good execution by
management, stock has delivered healthy
returns.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
22. 22Source: Bloomberg
An Engineering Company
This slide is to illustrate the concept of identifying growth stocks in the market. There is also a possibility of the expected event not happening or some
other unforeseen event that may affect performance of the company. The performance of stocks would ultimately depend on various factors such as
prevailing market conditions, global political scenario, exchange rate etc. Investors are requested to note that there are various factors (both local and
international) that can have impact on the future performance and expectations of any company. Information given is available in public domain.
There is no assurance or guarantee of any company being able to sustain its performance in future
• The company has capabilities across
railway infrastructure from tracks to
wagons.
• It was expected that the company would
benefit from increased thrust on railway
infrastructure by the new government.
• Uptick in demand for rolling stock* can
enhance scope of opportunity for the
company.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2011 2012 2013 2014
*Rolling stock originally referred to the vehicles that move on a railway.
24. 24
About the Fund
# The number of stocks provided is to explain the investment philosophy and the actual number may go up or down depending on then prevailing
market conditions at the time of investment.
* Dividends will be declared subject to availability of distributable surplus and approval from Trustees
• A 3.5 years close ended equity fund investing in 40-60 stocks#
• Only Dividend option
• Defined term helps caliberate entry/exit points better.
• Aims to provide long-term capital appreciation by:
• Identifying companies which are likely to see growth in earnings over
the tenure of the scheme.
• Investing across market cap with a bias towards mid and small cap space.
• Declare commensurate dividends*.
25. 25
Why 3.5 years or 42 months?
• The fund will mature 1 year prior to the term of the elected government.
• The objective of the government would be to get re-elected for another
term.
• To have a stronger recall in the minds of voters, the government could
target large deliveries in the last 1-2 years of the elected term.
• Market valuations could start reflecting current and on-going govt. efforts
in the 2nd
half of its elected term.
26. 26
High Conviction Portfolio (40-60* stocks)
Data Integrity Screens
Company Characteristics
• Strong competitive edge • Sustainable market position
Investable Universe
(Companies with Potential Profit or EPS growth > Sensex Profit or EPS growth)
Valuation & Fundamental verification
Valuation Parameter
• Increasing trend in Earnings • Improving B/S structure
Recurringprocess
Daily Risk control
• Proven business model • Financial Strength • Business Durability
Investment Approach
* The number of stocks provided is to explain the investment philosophy and the actual number may go up or down depending on then prevailing market
conditions at the time of investment.
27. 27
SCHEME FEATURES
Type of scheme A Close ended equity scheme
Tenure 1286 days
Investment Objective The investment objective of the Scheme is to provide capital appreciation
by investing in a well-diversified portfolio of equity and equity related
securities.
However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the
Scheme will be realized.
Options Direct Plan – Dividend payout Option
Regular Plan – Dividend payout Option
Minimum Application Amount Rs 5,000 (plus in multiple of Rs.10)
Entry & Exit Load Not Applicable
Benchmark Index CNX Nifty Index
Fund Manager* Mr. Yogesh Bhatt and Mr. Vinay Sharma
* Mr. Ashwin Jain for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities
28. 28
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
All figures and other data given in this document are as on 30th June 2014 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future
date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any
way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written
consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited.
Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication
or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.
Disclaimer: : In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used
information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained
from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information
gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness
and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or
phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”.
Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our
expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries
globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated
turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc.
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consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner.
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