- The document provides an equity market update for November 2018, summarizing macroeconomic indicators, global market performance, and the performance of the Indian market.
- Key developments in October included a decline in major Indian equity indices of around 5% due to domestic and global factors, continued weakness in the rupee, and heavy selling by foreign institutional investors.
- The document recommends that investors continue investing in pure equity schemes through SIPs for long-term exposure, and consider asset allocation schemes for new investments given ongoing volatility.
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Equity Update - November 2018
1. Equity Update
November 2018
Market Overview (as on October 31, 2018)
Macro Indicators
Latest
Update
Previous
Update
GDP (YoY%)
8.2
(1QFY19)
7.7
(4QFY18)
IIP (YoY%)
4.3
(August)
6.6
(July)
Crude ($ bbl)
71.9
(Oct 31)
83.2
(Sept 28)
Core Sector Growth
(YoY%)
4.3
(Sept 2018)
4.7
(Sept 2017)
Trade Deficit ($ mn)
-13,979
(Sep 2018)
-17,395
(Aug 2018)
Current Account Deficit
($ bn)
(15.8)
(1QFY19)
(13.1)
(4QFY18)
FII Holding in Indian
Equities (%)#
21.6
(1QFY19)
22.0
(4QFY18)
Note: # FII hldg includes ADR/GDR (BSE500 Index);
Data Source: Crisil Research; * Data till Oct 31, 2018; CAD:Current
Account Deficit; GDP: Gross Domestic Product, IIP: FII: Foreign
Institutional Investors; MF-Mutual Fund
Global Market Update
US Economy: The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting minutes
showed that the US Fed officials remained convinced that
continuing to gradually increase interest rates is the best formula
to preserve a steady economy. Meanwhile, the IMF cuts its 2019
US growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.7%, but left the 2018 forecast
unchanged at 2.9%.
European Union: The European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated its
plans to end its massive stimulus programme in December even
as the IMF trimmed its euro zone 2018 growth forecast to 2.0%
from 2.2%.
UK: Amidst continued uncertainty over the impact of Brexit on
the UK’s economic growth, the National Institute of Economic
and Social Research (NIESR) estimated that the UK’s GDP would
grow 1.4% and 1.9% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, in case of a
‘soft’ Brexit with a deal with Brussels. On the other hand, it
estimated that without a deal, GDP growth could slow down to
0.3% each in 2019 and 2020.
Japan: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained short-term interest
rates at minus 0.1% and the target for the 10-year Japanese
government bond yield at around zero.
Emerging Markets:
The People’s Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement
ratio for banks by 100 basis points (with effect from Oct 15) for
the fourth time this year to cut financing costs and prop up
economic activity.
Source: CRISIL Research
Indian Market Update
Index Performance: Indian equity indices remained in the
negative terrain for the second consecutive month in October
2018 owing to disappointing domestic and global cues.
Benchmarks S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 declined round 5%
each in October 2018.
Domestic Developments: Persistent weakness of the rupee
against the dollar and pullback in some index heavyweights
amid earnings announcements pulled down the local indices.
Non-banking financial company (NBFCs) continued to witness
heavy selling pressure even after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
announced measures to increase credit flow to these
companies. Sentiments remained weak despite the RBI’s
Monetary Policy Committee maintaining the repo rate at
6.50% in its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review.
Global Developments: Concerns about slowdown in global
economic growth and worries about China’s economic outlook
amid reports of US President Donald Trump considering on
imposing more tariffs on Chinese goods also weighed on the
Indian market. Other weak global cues were geopolitical
tensions, uncertainty about Brexit talks and Italy’s budget
impasse. Intermittent increase in crude oil prices and aggressive
selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled down the
local indices.
Flows Oct-18 Sept-18 Aug-18
FIIs (Net Purchases /
Sales) (Rs cr)
(27,623) (9,623) (2,029)
MFs (Net Purchases /
Sales) (Rs cr)
23,981 11,638 4,095
Domestic Markets Oct-18
(%)
Current
PE
10 Yr
Average
S&P BSE Sensex (4.9) 23.2 19.4
NSE Nifty (5.0) 21.7 19.6
S&P BSE Auto (7.4) 24.6 18.3
S&P BSE Bankex 1.3 95.7 15.6
S&P BSE Capital
Goods 2.2 24.4 29.7
S&P BSE Consumer
Durables 0.0 33.6 25.9
S&P BSE FMCG (3.3) 48.3 36.7
S&P BSE Healthcare (2.0) 30.7 29.0
S&P BSE IT (7.0) 19.1 19.7
S&P BSE Metals (5.7) 9.4 13.1
S&P BSE Mid Cap (1.0) 31.5 20.7
S&P BSE Oil & Gas (10.8) 9.4 13.0
S&P BSE PSU (1.3) 45.6 13.4
S&P BSE Realty (1.4) 9.0 23.5
Global Markets
Oct-18
(%)
Current
PE
10 Yr.
Avg.
US (5.1) 17.0 15.5
UK (5.1) 15.3 19.0
Japan (9.1) 15.6 20.3
Hong Kong (10.1) 9.8 11.3
Singapore (7.3) 10.9 12.2
China (8.0) 7.9 8.8
Earnings Growth (%) FY18E FY19E FY20E
Sensex 5 18 31
2. Equity Update
November 2018
Sectoral Impact: S&P BSE Oil & Gas index plunged nearly 11%
after the government announced a Rs 2.50 per litre cut in petrol
and diesel prices after it reduced excise duty by Rs 1.50 a litre
and asked oil companies to absorb another Rs 1. S&P BSE Auto
index fell 7.43% mainly due to costlier fuel, higher insurance
premium and weak market sentiments. S&P BSE IT index
tumbled 7.02% amid recovery of the rupee against the dollar.
Source: NSE, BSE; Crisil Research
Market Outlook and Triggers
October 2018 saw the Indian markets tumble by about 5 per cent, in a month that saw heavy volatility in the equity markets owing to
on-going concerns regarding weakening currency, rising crude oil prices, widening fiscal deficit, along with muted earnings
performance and the liquidity crunch-woes in the NBFC sector.
Globally, markets witnessed weakness due to the escalating tensions around trade wars, slowing growth, and rising interest rate
scenarios which kept markets from the US to Singapore on its toes. The US Federal Reserve is likely to announce another rate hike
before the end of this year and the European Central Bank aims to unwind its bond-buying programme by the year-end.
Among sectors, the energy and oil &gas sector declined the most at 13.6 and 10.8 per cent, respectively followed by the IT and auto
sector which fell about 7 per cent each. The consumer goods sector was the best performer, up 2.2 per cent followed by the power
and banking sector, up 1.5 and 1.3 per cent, respectively.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) continued to remain sellers, having net-sold equity for Rs 28,921 crore. This brings the total FPI net-
selling to Rs 42,138 crore, the worst year (so far) since 2008.
Given the circumstances, we believe markets could maintain a cautious outlook and watch out for events leading up to the upcoming
state and general elections, the volatility in crude oil prices, the direction of the currency, and the government’s efforts to meet the
fiscal target.
We believe that large-cap companies are best suited to tide the volatility in the market. We remain positive on the exports and
manufacturing ideas which stand to benefit from the deteriorating macro factors such as currency depreciation, worsening CAD,
higher oil prices as these could turn beneficial for this theme.
Given valuations are above long term averages, investors are recommended asset allocation schemes or conservative hybrid
schemes. Volatility due to macro-economic and global factors will also benefit with these schemes. For those looking at long-term
equity exposure, we recommend investing in midcaps and smallcaps in a staggered manner through SIPs.
Equity Valuation Index
Equity valuations show that the market valuations are in the zone where investors are recommended to invest in asset allocation
schemes.
110.27
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Invest in Equities
Aggressively invest in Equities
Asset Allocation
Incremental Money to Debt
Book Partial Profits
3. Equity Update
November 2018
Equity valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price to equity (PE), Price to book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to Gross
Domestic Product (GDP)
None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult
their financial advisors before investing.
Our Recommendations
Investors may continue with their investments in pure equity schemes. As uncertainty regarding global events and run-up to
elections cannot be ruled out, we believe the markets could be volatile in the near term. Hence for new investors we
recommend investing in asset allocation schemes. Investors looking for long-term exposure with an appetite for volatility
could consider investing systematically in small and midcap schemes. Investors looking for tactical allocation could invest in
thematic schemes encompassing export and services and Pharma sectors.
Our Recommendations – Equity Schemes
Pure Equity
Schemes
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund
(An open ended equity scheme predominantly
investing in large cap stocks)
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund
(An open ended equity scheme investing in both
large cap and mid cap stocks)
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund
(An open ended equity scheme investing across
large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks)
These Schemes aim to generate capital
appreciation through participation in
equities.
Long-Term SIP
Schemes
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
(An open ended equity scheme following a value
investment strategy)
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund
(An open ended equity scheme predominantly
investing in small cap stocks)
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund
(An open ended equity scheme predominantly
investing in mid cap stocks)
These schemes aim to generate long
term wealth creation over a full market
cycle.
Asset Allocation
Schemes
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund
(An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund)
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund
(An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly
in equity and equity related instruments)
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund
(An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt,
Gold/Gold ETF/units of REITs & InvITs and such
other asset classes as may be permitted from time
to time)
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund
(An open ended scheme investing in equity,
arbitrage and debt)
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund
(An open ended hybrid scheme investing
predominantly in debt instruments)
These schemes aim to benefit from
volatility and can be suitable for investors
aiming to participate in equities with low
volatility.
4. Equity Update
November 2018
Thematic/Sectoral
schemes
ICICI Prudential Exports and Services Fund
(An open ended equity scheme following Exports &
Services theme)
ICICI Prudential Pharma Healthcare and
Diagnostics(P.H.D) Fund
(An open ended equity scheme following Pharma,
Healthcare, Diagnostic and allied Theme)
ICICI Prudential Manufacture In India Fund
(An open ended equity Scheme following manufacturing
theme)
Investors could invest in this thematic
scheme for tactical allocation. It would be
a high risk investment option.
Disclaimer & Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme investing in both largecap and mid cap stocks
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation solution
A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by
investing in equity as well as fixed income securities.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation solution
An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme investing across largecap, mid cap and small cap stocks.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
5. Equity Update
November 2018
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An Open ended scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in
fixed income securities, arbitrage and other derivative strategies and aim for long term
capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Exports and Services Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open-ended equity scheme that aims for growth by predominantly investing in
companies belonging to Exports & Services industry.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long term wealth creation
• An open ended scheme investing in at least three asset classes with minimum allocation of
10% to each asset class.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Medium to Long term regular income solution
A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in
debt and money market instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a
portion in equity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Pharma Healthcare and Diagnostics(P.H.D) Fund is suitable for investors who are
seeking*:
• Long term wealth creation
• An equity scheme that predominantly invests in pharma, healthcare, hospitals,
diagnostics, wellness and allied companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open-ended equity scheme that aims for capital appreciation by investing in
diversified mid cap companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by
predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities of small cap companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
6. Equity Update
November 2018
ICICI Prudential Manufacture In India Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long term wealth creation
• An open ended equity scheme that aims to provide capital appreciation by investing in
equity and equity related securities of companies engaged in manufacturing theme
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is
suitable for them.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information
developed in-house. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The Fund however does
not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. For data reference to any third party in this material no
such party will assume any liability for the same. All recipients of this material should before dealing and or transacting in any of the products
referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice and carefully read the scheme information
document. We have included statements in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as "will", "expect", "should", "believe" and
similar expressions or variations of such expressions that are "forward looking statements". Actual results may differ materially from those
suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to,
exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our
services and / or investments, the monitory and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign
exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices, the performance of the financial markets in India and globally, changes in domestic and
foreign laws, regulations and taxes and changes in competition in the industry. All data/information used in the preparation of this material is
dated and may or may not be relevant any time after the issuance of this material. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any
data/information in this material from time to time. he AMC (including its affiliates), the Fund and any of its officers directors, personnel and
employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary,
consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fully
responsible/are liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material.