Equity Market Update | July 2023

Global as well as domestic markets rallied during the month on back of upbeat economic data and positive sentiments. Hence we dig deeper into the nitty-gritties of markets in this Equity Market Update. #ICICIPrudentialMutualFund #EquityMarketUpdate #Equity #Investment

INDEX PERFORMANCE:
India’s benchmark equity indices soared in June-23.
S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 ended higher on month
by approx. 3.5% each. Sensex breached 64,700 mark
and Nifty 50 surpassed 19,100 mark first time. Also,
market gains were led by upbeat investor sentiment
amid better-than expected GDP data, hence easing
domestic retail inflation to a more than two-year low,
robust GST collections, steady Capex spends by Govt
etc
Markets also rallied following similar positive
sentiments in global markets after strong economic
data. Uplift in investor sentiments boosted all key
S&P BSE sectoral indices and all of them ended higher
during June-23.
FIIs bought equities worth Rs 471.48 billion in June-23
compared to Rs 438.38 billion in May-23. DIIs bought
Indian equities worth Rs 44.58 billion in June-23,
compared to net selling of Rs 33.06 billion in May-23
(Source: BSE and Crisil Research, GDP: Gross Domestic Product,
FY: Financial Years)
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
July 2023
Data Source: Axiscap Research & Crisil Research; * Data till June 30, 2023 is
considered
Data Source: Axiscap Research & Crisil Research; * Data till June 30, 2023 .
PE: Price to Equity Ratio
Indices
Index
Movement in
June 23
Current PE
10 Yr
Average
US 4.6 19.9 17.6
UK 1.1 10.5 15.9
Japan 7.5 32.3 19.9
Hong Kong 3.7 9.7 11.6
Singapore 1.5 11.9 15.1
China 4.2 8.9 8.6
Global Market Update
Indian Market Update
• US GDP grew an annualised 2% on-quarter in the first quarter
of CY-23 compared with 2.6% in the fourth quarter of CY-22.
Fed left the target for fund’s rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25% but
signaled rate hike by year end if inflation does not slow down.
• The Eurozone growth slowed to annualized 1% in the quarter
of Jan 23 - Mar 23 from 1.8% growth in the previous quarter.
European Central Bank continued increasing rate with 25 bps
hike in key interest rate from 3.75 to 4.00%
• The United Kingdom economy expanded 0.2% on-year in
Q1CY23, the lowest annual growth rate since 2021, compared
with the 0.6% growth in Q4CY22. In its 13th consecutive rate
hike, Bank of England raised policy rate 50 bps to 5.00% in
June-23
• Japanese economy grew 2.7% annually in the first quarter of
CY-23, as compared to an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in
the previous quarter.
• People’ Bank of China lowered its one- year loan prime rate to
3.55% in June, compared to 3.65% in June
Source: CRISIL Research. (US: United States, GDP: Gross Domestic
Product, CY: Calendar Year)
Indices
Index
Movement in
June 23
Current PE
10 Yr
Average
S&P BSE Sensex 3.3 24.1 23.6
NSE Nifty 50 3.5 23.0 22.6
S&P BSE Auto 6.7 40.7 25.6
S&P BSE Bankex 1.0 17.5 21.3
S&P BSE Capital Goods 9.4 38.9 35.3
S&P BSE Consumer
Durables
4.9 67.1 41.9
S&P BSE FMCG 2.4 44.8 41.5
S&P BSE Healthcare 9.0 36.5 30.8
S&P BSE IT 1.8 26.0 20.5
S&P BSE Metals 5.2 9.8 12.9
S&P BSE Mid Cap 6.2 25.6 27.9
S&P BSE Oil & Gas 1.3 9.9 11.6
S&P BSE PSU 3.6 8.7 11.5
S&P BSE Realty 8.6 64.7 32.0
INFLATION:
Consumer Prices Index observed a 20-month low of
4.25% in May-23. Wholesale Price Index softened to
3.5% in May-23 (Source: Crisil Research)
DOMESTIC & GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS:
India’s GDP prints came in as a surprise at 6.1%
growth in Q4FY23 against street estimates of 5.0%.
This pushed overall growth rate to 7.2% for FY23
Slowing global growth had impacted India’s GDP
last fiscal as exports and industrial activity were
sluggish.
Domestic demand however continues to hold up.
While domestic indicators remain steady and
structural positives are getting built up, managing
global front is a key challenge for Indian GDP
RBI in its policy meet kept repo rate unchanged at
6.5% for the second time in a row, thereby uplifting
the sentiments. Accordingly, standing deposit facility
rate remained at 6.25%
However, the markets witnessed some weakness
owing to worries over hawkish stance by the Fed
and weakness in the Chinese economy
(Source: Crisil Research and NSDL. DII: Domestic Institutional
Investment, FY: Financial year, GDP: Gross Domestic Product,
Government of India. FY: Financial Year., RBI: Reserve Bank of India,
Fed: Federal Reserve System of United States)
Indian Market Update
Outlook & Triggers
Globally, equity markets, rallied during the month. Signs of cooling inflation and stronger growth print renewed hopes of a ‘soft landing’
of the US economy, undercutting widespread expectations of a recession. The S&P 500 ended June 2023 up 6.5% over the previous
month. Driven by an tech-focused rally, the Nasdaq 100 index jumped 6.6% on-month in June 2023 (Source: S&P; Nasdaq).
Likewise, European equities participated in the rally despite rate hikes by the European Central Bank. The Stoxx 600 gained 2.3% and the
UK’s FTSE 100 rose 1.1% (Source: FTSE; STOXX). China’s factory activity contracted for a third month, with latest data pointing at a
patchy recovery as growth momentum fizzles. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% in June 2023. Among the top gainers globally
were Brazil (+9.4%), Japan (+7.5%) and the US (+6.5%). Meanwhile, Thailand (-2.0%), Malaysia (-0.8%) and South Korea (-0.5%) faced
declines. (Source: Kotak Research). Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) flows into domestic equities remained high at Rs.47,148 crores in
June 2023. India’s inflation growth cooled further to 4.25% in May 2023. (Source: NSDL)
The market barometer S&P BSE Sensex index climbed 3.3% whereas the Nifty 50 rose 3.5%. Sector-wise, the BSE Capital Goods (+9.4%),
BSE Healthcare (+9.0%) and BSE Realty (+8.6%) were gainers. BSE Bankex (+1.0%) and BSE Oil & Gas (+1.3%) were laggards. (Source:
BSE and NSE)
Our view going forward:
• Post March-2023, equity valuations have moved higher due to renewed interest from FPIs. India’s strong macro-economic situation has
led to positive overall sentiments.
• We are in a neutral situation where equities cannot be avoided due to strong macros, nor it is recommended to be overweight on
equities, due to valuations.
• Hence, we prefer schemes with flexibility to move between asset classes, like the dynamic asset allocation fund, multi-asset fund, or
diversified equity schemes having flexibility to move between market-cap and sector/themes.
• India’s long-term structural growth story and comparably favorable macros draw comfort for investors with a longer time horizon.
•The Union Budget’s focus on higher Capital Expenditure by the Centre & States; push for consumption through lower taxes and goal of
fiscal consolidation, together underpin India’s growth.
• Other positives include healthy tax collection, strong govt. reforms and India as one of the favored destination for China +1 theme.
• Global cues such as US and UK central bank actions, geopolitical risks and foreign capital flows may continue to influence equity
markets.
• We remain positive on sector/themes which are closely related to India economy like Banks, Auto, Infrastructure and Capital Goods.
Pharma sector also shows reasonable valuations and earnings.
• We are positive on staggered or SIP mode of investment for capturing the long-term growth opportunity.
U.S. – United States of America; Bps – basis points; SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, UK: United Kingdom
Earnings Growth (%) (Consolidated) FY23 FY24E FY25E
Sensex 19.0 13.7 17.8
Macro Indicators Latest Update Previous Update
GDP (YoY%) 6.1%
(4QFY23)
4.5%
(3QFY23)
IIP (YoY%) 4.2%
(Apr 2023)
1.1 %
(Mar 2023)
Crude ($ bbl)
75.1
(June 31)
72
(May 31)
Core Sector Growth (YoY%) 4.3%
(May 2023)
3.5%
(Apr 2023)
Trade Deficit ($ mn) -22,120
(Mar 2023)
-15,234
(Feb 2023)
Current Account Deficit ($ bn) 1.4 (4QFY23) 16.8 (3QFY23)
Note: Data Source: Axiscap Research and Crisil Research; Data till June 30, 2023 is considered; CAD:
Current Account Deficit; GDP: Gross Domestic Product, IIP: India Industrial Production FII: Foreign
Institutional Investors; MF-Mutual Fund; E- Estimate; FY: Financial Year
Flows Jun-23 May-23 Apr-23
FIIs (Net Purchases / Sales) (Rs Cr) 43,311 41,207 15,733
MFs (Net Purchases / Sales) (Rs cr) 9,834 3,714 -4,533
Equity Valuation Index
Our Recommendation
Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-
Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as on June 30, 2023. Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model of ICICI
Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by
the AMC
Hence, to summarize, we believe this phase may require investment portfolios to be highly nimble while giving due importance to
overall asset allocation. Therefore, we recommend adapting below mentioned strategies and investing in these schemes over long
term may be beneficial for your wealth creation journey
• Staggered Investments: Continue SIP/STP in Equity Schemes as the long term structural story of India remains intact
• Asset Allocation: As the macros are changing and to manage volatility, we recommend schemes which can invest in various
asset classes
• Parking Fund: As the valuations are not cheap, hence we recommend some funds to be placed in the Arbitrage or Equity
Savings category which can later be deployed post any market correction
STP: Systematic Transfer Plan, SIP: Systematic Investment Plan
*ICICI Prudential Booster Systematic Transfer Plan (STP) is a facility where in unitholder (s) can opt to transfer variable amount(s) from designated open
ended Scheme(s) of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund to the designated open ended Scheme(s) of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. This feature does not in any
way give assurance of the performance of any of the Schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or provide any guarantee of returns through Transfer plans.
Booster STP allows Investors to transfer the amount to Target Scheme basis the EVI calculated and corresponding Trigger Value to the same. Please read
the terms & conditions in the application form before investing or visit www.iciciprumf.co SIP: Systematic Investment Plan, STP: Systematic Transfer Plan.
None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their
financial advisors
Market is expected to remain volatile due to various macro situations. Hence we recommend schemes with flexibility to
invest across Asset Classes, Market Cap & Sectors/ themes
Asset Allocation Flexibility Flexibility across Sector/ Theme Market cap Flexibility
Recommended Schemes: Recommended Schemes: Recommended Schemes:
HYBRID
1.ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund
2. ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund
FUND OF FUNDS
1.ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund
(FOF)
2. ICICI Prudential Passive Multi-Asset Fund
of Funds
1. ICICI Prudential Business Cycle
Fund
2. ICICI Prudential Thematic
Advantage Fund (FOF)
1. ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
2. ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund
3. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
SIP/STP Strategy:
Continue SIP/STP as the long term structural story of India remains intact, strongly recommend ICICI Prudential Booster STP*
Recommended Schemes
1. ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund 2. ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund 3. ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund
4. ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund 5. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund 6. ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund
109.4
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Aggressively Invest in Equities
Neutral
Incremental Money to Debt
Book Partial Profits
Invest in Equities
Scheme Riskometers
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on
May 31, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund (An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt and Exchange Traded
Commodity Derivatives/units of Gold ETFs/units of REITs & InvITs/Preference shares) is suitable for investors
who are seeking*:
• Long term wealth creation
• An open ended scheme investing across asset classes.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
RISKOMETER
Investors
understand that
their principal will
be at Very High
risk
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund (An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.)
is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Moderate
• Long Term wealth creation
• An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.
RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their principal will
be at Very High risk
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based
investing theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Moderate
• Long Term wealth creation
• An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic
allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles.
RISKOMETER
Investors
understand that
their principal will
be at Very High
risk
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund (An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap &
small cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Moderate
• Long Term wealth creation
• An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks
RISKOMETER
Investors
understand that
their principal will
be at Very High
risk
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund (An open ended dynamic asset allocation Fund) is
suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long term capital appreciation/income
• Investing in equity and equity related securities and debt instruments.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their principal will
be at Very High risk
ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across
market- capitalization i.e. focus on multicap) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long Term wealth creation
• An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market-capitalization.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their principal will be
at Very High risk
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks)
is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long Term wealth creation
• An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by predominantly investing in
equity and equity related securities of small cap companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their principal will be
at High risk
ICICI Prudential Passive Multi-Asset Fund of Funds (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity,
debt, gold and global index funds/exchange traded funds) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long Term wealth creation
• An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity, debt, gold and global index funds/exchange traded
funds
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
In case of Fund of Funds, Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of the relevant fund of fund scheme
in addition to the expenses of the underlying schemes in which the fund of fund scheme makes investment.
RISKOMETER
Investors understand
that their principal will be
at Very High risk
In case of Fund of Funds, Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of the relevant fund of fund scheme in addition to
the expenses of the underlying schemes in which the fund of fund scheme makes investment.
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity
oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/schemes) is suitable for investors who are
seeking*:
• Long term wealth creation
• An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold
ETF/schemes
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
RISKOMETER
Investors
understand that
their principal will
be at High risk
ICICI Prudential Thematic Advantage Fund (FOF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing
predominantly in Sectoral/Thematic schemes) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Moderate
• Long Term wealth creation
• An open ended fund of funds scheme investing predominantly in Sectoral/Thematic equity oriented schemes
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as
on May 31, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid
cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long term wealth creation
• An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
RISKOMETER
Investors
understand that
their principal will
be at Very High
risk
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (An open ended equity scheme following special situations
theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long term wealth creation
• An equity scheme that invests in stocks based on special situations theme
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
RISKOMETER
Investors
understand that
their principal will
be at Very High
risk
Scheme Riskometers
RISKOMETER
Investors
understand that
their principal will
be at Very High
risk
Disclaimer
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents
carefully.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is
publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material(s) used in the document may
have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been
made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is
believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or
completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document,
which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations
of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those
suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with
respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other
countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies
of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or
other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual
Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of
any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss
of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein
should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any
decision taken on this material.
The information contained herein is only for the purpose of information and not for distribution and do not constitute an
offer to buy or sell or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments in the United States of
America ("US") and/or Canada or for the benefit of US persons (being persons falling within the definition of the term
"US Person" under the US Securities Act, 1933, as amended) or persons residing in Canada.

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Equity Market Update | July 2023

  • 1. INDEX PERFORMANCE: India’s benchmark equity indices soared in June-23. S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 ended higher on month by approx. 3.5% each. Sensex breached 64,700 mark and Nifty 50 surpassed 19,100 mark first time. Also, market gains were led by upbeat investor sentiment amid better-than expected GDP data, hence easing domestic retail inflation to a more than two-year low, robust GST collections, steady Capex spends by Govt etc Markets also rallied following similar positive sentiments in global markets after strong economic data. Uplift in investor sentiments boosted all key S&P BSE sectoral indices and all of them ended higher during June-23. FIIs bought equities worth Rs 471.48 billion in June-23 compared to Rs 438.38 billion in May-23. DIIs bought Indian equities worth Rs 44.58 billion in June-23, compared to net selling of Rs 33.06 billion in May-23 (Source: BSE and Crisil Research, GDP: Gross Domestic Product, FY: Financial Years) EQUITY MARKET UPDATE July 2023 Data Source: Axiscap Research & Crisil Research; * Data till June 30, 2023 is considered Data Source: Axiscap Research & Crisil Research; * Data till June 30, 2023 . PE: Price to Equity Ratio Indices Index Movement in June 23 Current PE 10 Yr Average US 4.6 19.9 17.6 UK 1.1 10.5 15.9 Japan 7.5 32.3 19.9 Hong Kong 3.7 9.7 11.6 Singapore 1.5 11.9 15.1 China 4.2 8.9 8.6 Global Market Update Indian Market Update • US GDP grew an annualised 2% on-quarter in the first quarter of CY-23 compared with 2.6% in the fourth quarter of CY-22. Fed left the target for fund’s rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25% but signaled rate hike by year end if inflation does not slow down. • The Eurozone growth slowed to annualized 1% in the quarter of Jan 23 - Mar 23 from 1.8% growth in the previous quarter. European Central Bank continued increasing rate with 25 bps hike in key interest rate from 3.75 to 4.00% • The United Kingdom economy expanded 0.2% on-year in Q1CY23, the lowest annual growth rate since 2021, compared with the 0.6% growth in Q4CY22. In its 13th consecutive rate hike, Bank of England raised policy rate 50 bps to 5.00% in June-23 • Japanese economy grew 2.7% annually in the first quarter of CY-23, as compared to an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in the previous quarter. • People’ Bank of China lowered its one- year loan prime rate to 3.55% in June, compared to 3.65% in June Source: CRISIL Research. (US: United States, GDP: Gross Domestic Product, CY: Calendar Year) Indices Index Movement in June 23 Current PE 10 Yr Average S&P BSE Sensex 3.3 24.1 23.6 NSE Nifty 50 3.5 23.0 22.6 S&P BSE Auto 6.7 40.7 25.6 S&P BSE Bankex 1.0 17.5 21.3 S&P BSE Capital Goods 9.4 38.9 35.3 S&P BSE Consumer Durables 4.9 67.1 41.9 S&P BSE FMCG 2.4 44.8 41.5 S&P BSE Healthcare 9.0 36.5 30.8 S&P BSE IT 1.8 26.0 20.5 S&P BSE Metals 5.2 9.8 12.9 S&P BSE Mid Cap 6.2 25.6 27.9 S&P BSE Oil & Gas 1.3 9.9 11.6 S&P BSE PSU 3.6 8.7 11.5 S&P BSE Realty 8.6 64.7 32.0 INFLATION: Consumer Prices Index observed a 20-month low of 4.25% in May-23. Wholesale Price Index softened to 3.5% in May-23 (Source: Crisil Research)
  • 2. DOMESTIC & GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS: India’s GDP prints came in as a surprise at 6.1% growth in Q4FY23 against street estimates of 5.0%. This pushed overall growth rate to 7.2% for FY23 Slowing global growth had impacted India’s GDP last fiscal as exports and industrial activity were sluggish. Domestic demand however continues to hold up. While domestic indicators remain steady and structural positives are getting built up, managing global front is a key challenge for Indian GDP RBI in its policy meet kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the second time in a row, thereby uplifting the sentiments. Accordingly, standing deposit facility rate remained at 6.25% However, the markets witnessed some weakness owing to worries over hawkish stance by the Fed and weakness in the Chinese economy (Source: Crisil Research and NSDL. DII: Domestic Institutional Investment, FY: Financial year, GDP: Gross Domestic Product, Government of India. FY: Financial Year., RBI: Reserve Bank of India, Fed: Federal Reserve System of United States) Indian Market Update Outlook & Triggers Globally, equity markets, rallied during the month. Signs of cooling inflation and stronger growth print renewed hopes of a ‘soft landing’ of the US economy, undercutting widespread expectations of a recession. The S&P 500 ended June 2023 up 6.5% over the previous month. Driven by an tech-focused rally, the Nasdaq 100 index jumped 6.6% on-month in June 2023 (Source: S&P; Nasdaq). Likewise, European equities participated in the rally despite rate hikes by the European Central Bank. The Stoxx 600 gained 2.3% and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 1.1% (Source: FTSE; STOXX). China’s factory activity contracted for a third month, with latest data pointing at a patchy recovery as growth momentum fizzles. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% in June 2023. Among the top gainers globally were Brazil (+9.4%), Japan (+7.5%) and the US (+6.5%). Meanwhile, Thailand (-2.0%), Malaysia (-0.8%) and South Korea (-0.5%) faced declines. (Source: Kotak Research). Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) flows into domestic equities remained high at Rs.47,148 crores in June 2023. India’s inflation growth cooled further to 4.25% in May 2023. (Source: NSDL) The market barometer S&P BSE Sensex index climbed 3.3% whereas the Nifty 50 rose 3.5%. Sector-wise, the BSE Capital Goods (+9.4%), BSE Healthcare (+9.0%) and BSE Realty (+8.6%) were gainers. BSE Bankex (+1.0%) and BSE Oil & Gas (+1.3%) were laggards. (Source: BSE and NSE) Our view going forward: • Post March-2023, equity valuations have moved higher due to renewed interest from FPIs. India’s strong macro-economic situation has led to positive overall sentiments. • We are in a neutral situation where equities cannot be avoided due to strong macros, nor it is recommended to be overweight on equities, due to valuations. • Hence, we prefer schemes with flexibility to move between asset classes, like the dynamic asset allocation fund, multi-asset fund, or diversified equity schemes having flexibility to move between market-cap and sector/themes. • India’s long-term structural growth story and comparably favorable macros draw comfort for investors with a longer time horizon. •The Union Budget’s focus on higher Capital Expenditure by the Centre & States; push for consumption through lower taxes and goal of fiscal consolidation, together underpin India’s growth. • Other positives include healthy tax collection, strong govt. reforms and India as one of the favored destination for China +1 theme. • Global cues such as US and UK central bank actions, geopolitical risks and foreign capital flows may continue to influence equity markets. • We remain positive on sector/themes which are closely related to India economy like Banks, Auto, Infrastructure and Capital Goods. Pharma sector also shows reasonable valuations and earnings. • We are positive on staggered or SIP mode of investment for capturing the long-term growth opportunity. U.S. – United States of America; Bps – basis points; SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, UK: United Kingdom Earnings Growth (%) (Consolidated) FY23 FY24E FY25E Sensex 19.0 13.7 17.8 Macro Indicators Latest Update Previous Update GDP (YoY%) 6.1% (4QFY23) 4.5% (3QFY23) IIP (YoY%) 4.2% (Apr 2023) 1.1 % (Mar 2023) Crude ($ bbl) 75.1 (June 31) 72 (May 31) Core Sector Growth (YoY%) 4.3% (May 2023) 3.5% (Apr 2023) Trade Deficit ($ mn) -22,120 (Mar 2023) -15,234 (Feb 2023) Current Account Deficit ($ bn) 1.4 (4QFY23) 16.8 (3QFY23) Note: Data Source: Axiscap Research and Crisil Research; Data till June 30, 2023 is considered; CAD: Current Account Deficit; GDP: Gross Domestic Product, IIP: India Industrial Production FII: Foreign Institutional Investors; MF-Mutual Fund; E- Estimate; FY: Financial Year Flows Jun-23 May-23 Apr-23 FIIs (Net Purchases / Sales) (Rs Cr) 43,311 41,207 15,733 MFs (Net Purchases / Sales) (Rs cr) 9,834 3,714 -4,533
  • 3. Equity Valuation Index Our Recommendation Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G- Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as on June 30, 2023. Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC Hence, to summarize, we believe this phase may require investment portfolios to be highly nimble while giving due importance to overall asset allocation. Therefore, we recommend adapting below mentioned strategies and investing in these schemes over long term may be beneficial for your wealth creation journey • Staggered Investments: Continue SIP/STP in Equity Schemes as the long term structural story of India remains intact • Asset Allocation: As the macros are changing and to manage volatility, we recommend schemes which can invest in various asset classes • Parking Fund: As the valuations are not cheap, hence we recommend some funds to be placed in the Arbitrage or Equity Savings category which can later be deployed post any market correction STP: Systematic Transfer Plan, SIP: Systematic Investment Plan *ICICI Prudential Booster Systematic Transfer Plan (STP) is a facility where in unitholder (s) can opt to transfer variable amount(s) from designated open ended Scheme(s) of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund to the designated open ended Scheme(s) of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. This feature does not in any way give assurance of the performance of any of the Schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund or provide any guarantee of returns through Transfer plans. Booster STP allows Investors to transfer the amount to Target Scheme basis the EVI calculated and corresponding Trigger Value to the same. Please read the terms & conditions in the application form before investing or visit www.iciciprumf.co SIP: Systematic Investment Plan, STP: Systematic Transfer Plan. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors Market is expected to remain volatile due to various macro situations. Hence we recommend schemes with flexibility to invest across Asset Classes, Market Cap & Sectors/ themes Asset Allocation Flexibility Flexibility across Sector/ Theme Market cap Flexibility Recommended Schemes: Recommended Schemes: Recommended Schemes: HYBRID 1.ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 2. ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund FUND OF FUNDS 1.ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF) 2. ICICI Prudential Passive Multi-Asset Fund of Funds 1. ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund 2. ICICI Prudential Thematic Advantage Fund (FOF) 1. ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund 2. ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund 3. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund SIP/STP Strategy: Continue SIP/STP as the long term structural story of India remains intact, strongly recommend ICICI Prudential Booster STP* Recommended Schemes 1. ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund 2. ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund 3. ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund 4. ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund 5. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund 6. ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund 109.4 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Aggressively Invest in Equities Neutral Incremental Money to Debt Book Partial Profits Invest in Equities
  • 4. Scheme Riskometers Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on May 31, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund (An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt and Exchange Traded Commodity Derivatives/units of Gold ETFs/units of REITs & InvITs/Preference shares) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Long term wealth creation • An open ended scheme investing across asset classes. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund (An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Moderate • Long Term wealth creation • An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Moderate • Long Term wealth creation • An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic allocation between various sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Flexicap Fund (An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap & small cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Moderate • Long Term wealth creation • An open ended dynamic equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund (An open ended dynamic asset allocation Fund) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Long term capital appreciation/income • Investing in equity and equity related securities and debt instruments. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market- capitalization i.e. focus on multicap) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Long Term wealth creation • An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market-capitalization. *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Long Term wealth creation • An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities of small cap companies. *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at High risk ICICI Prudential Passive Multi-Asset Fund of Funds (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity, debt, gold and global index funds/exchange traded funds) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Long Term wealth creation • An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity, debt, gold and global index funds/exchange traded funds *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. In case of Fund of Funds, Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of the relevant fund of fund scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying schemes in which the fund of fund scheme makes investment. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk
  • 5. In case of Fund of Funds, Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of the relevant fund of fund scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying schemes in which the fund of fund scheme makes investment. ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETFs/schemes) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Long term wealth creation • An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented schemes and gold ETF/schemes *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at High risk ICICI Prudential Thematic Advantage Fund (FOF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing predominantly in Sectoral/Thematic schemes) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: Moderate • Long Term wealth creation • An open ended fund of funds scheme investing predominantly in Sectoral/Thematic equity oriented schemes *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis. The above riskometers are as on May 31, 2023. Please refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details. ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Long term wealth creation • An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (An open ended equity scheme following special situations theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*: • Long term wealth creation • An equity scheme that invests in stocks based on special situations theme *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk Scheme Riskometers RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at Very High risk
  • 6. Disclaimer Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, the AMC has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material(s) used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. The information contained herein is only for the purpose of information and not for distribution and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments in the United States of America ("US") and/or Canada or for the benefit of US persons (being persons falling within the definition of the term "US Person" under the US Securities Act, 1933, as amended) or persons residing in Canada.