A description of the key drivers that will shape the future of tourism demand for New Zealand by 2050. Part of the tourism2050.com project

1. Tourism Demand A more knowledgeable world Bring it on! Climate change Tourism vs. leisure consumption Shifting markets Wealth and elasticity Consumer values: Fluid and simple A world of science and technology New patterns of population structures Our identity and humanity Distance and uncertainty of connectivity 1

2. A more knowledgeable world In 1985, 8.5% of young adults were enrolled in tertiary education. By 2007 this had increased to 25.5%! Globally, ¼ of tertiary age students are enrolled. Europe and Central Asia is currently the only region with over 50% of youth enrolled in tertiary education. Key: East Asia & pacific (EAP), Europe & Central Asia (ECA), Latin America & Caribbean (LAC), Middle East & North Africa (MNA), South Asia (SAS), Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), WORLD (WLD)

3. A more knowledgeable world By the end of 2007 almost 1 out of 2 people had a mobile phone. Europe also reached over 100% Penetration.

4. Bring it on! Climate change “Tourists prefer countries with a sunny yet mild climate and shun climates that are too hot or too cold” (Bigano et al, 2006). The IPCC estimates a 4.95 degree increase in average summer temperatures which could threaten the states coastlines. Florida Florida attracts millions of people annually for its popular beaches, coastlines and outdoor activities. Scientists predict by 2100, Florida’s sea levels would have risen by 18-20 inches putting wildlife, hotels and houses in danger. 4

5. Bring it on! Climate change French Alps The main reason tourists travel to the French Alps is for its winter sports offerings. The French Alps is considered the number one mountain destination for winter sports in the world. 77.5% of overnight stays are related to winter sports and there are over 600 ski resorts and 10,000 ski installations within the Alps. Climate change is expected to significantly reduce the number of naturally snow-reliable areas in the French Alps. Snow making technologies are currently being developed to cope with climate change. 5

6. Wealth and elasticity NZ? NZ. Trends: Improvements in absolute incomes. E.g. 20 fold plus improvement in incomes for over 3 billion people in India and China alone; An explosion of the middle-classes throughout the world.

7. Consumer values: Fluid and simple

8. Consumer values: Fluid and simple

9. 9 Projected Demographics of Key Markets in 2050. New patterns of population structures

10. 10 CHINA New patterns of population structures

11. 11 The New Zealand Tourism Brand Our identity and humanity With its “100% Pure” brand, New Zealand created a powerhouse tourism brand. The nation with the smallest population among the Top 10, New Zealand is also strong in other dimensions with Top 10 rankings in Political Freedom, Environmentalism and Safety. Top 10 visitor rankings in Authenticity, Friendly Locals, Natural Beauty and Outdoor Activities & Sports explain why New Zealand is also one of the most desirable tourist destinations.

12. Our identity and humanity Gnothet al, (1999-2002)

13. 13 Why Tourists Come to New Zealand (1999-2009). Our identity and humanity This graph shows that the main purpose for travelling to New Zealand is for a holiday. Other primary reasons include; VFR, business, conference and education.

14. 14 Future of Oil Distance and uncertainty of connectivity This publication outlines three different scenarios surrounding the future of world oil markets. The graphs above highlight the uncertainty surrounding the future of the oil and energy industry.

15. 15 Future Air Craft Design Distance & Uncertainty of Connectivity In response to worldwide concerns over air quality and climate change NASA has developed a Hybrid Wing Bodied (HBW) air craft. This aircraft uses advanced technologies to reduce fuel burn, noise and NOx emissions. The aircraft has high-lift wings and a wide air-foil shaped body to reduce drag and fuel depletion. This aircraft is expected to be widely used in 2020. This aircraft will initially be used for mainly for cargo. However, commercial airlines are beginning to investigate this aircraft design.

16. 16 Moore's Law and Technology Discovery A world of science and technology Futurists predict that Moore’s law will lead to a period of technological singularity in which technological advances occur instantly. It is also suggested that new technology (i.e. Nano-technology) will replace current integrated-circuit technology. Thus, Moore’s law will hold true beyond 2020 (Kurzweil, 2005). Gordon Moore, theorised that the number of transistors on a chip should double each year. By 2014, the continuation of Moore’s law will be threatened. However, IBM is researching DNA to make the manufacture of future chips economically feasible (Crothers, 2009).

17. A world of science and technology

18. Shifting markets

19. Shifting markets Largest Countries and Areas Ranked by Population (2050)

20. Tourism vs. leisure consumption In 2008, approximately 40% (£40.7B) of all UK leisure expenditure was spent within the home on such things as televisions, computers and books. 60% (£63.8B) of leisure expenditure is on out of home activities. Perhaps as result of the toughening economic environment there was a clear move towards in-home leisure spending with that sector growing by 4.4% compared with just 4.0% for out-of-home leisure. In the previous two years out-of-home leisure had been the fastest growing sector.

21. Tourism vs. leisure consumption