Humidtropics International Conference on Integrated Systems

1. Modeling the Impact of Sustainable
Intensification on Landscapes and
Livelihoods using System Dynamics
Laura Schmitt Olabisi
Robert B. Richardson
Kurt Waldman
Naomi Sakana, Phil Grabowski

2. Project Aim
Provide an evidence base
for the linkages between
field- and farm-scale
sustainable agricultural
intensification
interventions and climate
change mitigation and
biodiversity conservation
in Zambia (focus on
Eastern & Lusaka
Provinces)

3. Project Methods:
•Literature, data search
and synthesis
•Participatory system
dynamics modeling
•Spatial analysis

4. System dynamics modeling: feedback,
stocks and flows, nonlinearity
Number of
people
births deaths(B)(R)

5. Participatory Modeling in SES’s
high
high
low
low
Degree of
consensus
among
stakeholders
Degree of understanding of the system dynamics
Mediated modeling
Typical result: consensus
on both problems/goals
and process leading to
effective and
implementable policies
Mediated discussion
Typical result: Consensus
on goals or problems but
no help on how to achieve
the goals or solve the
problems
Status Quo
Typical result:
confrontational debate and
no improvement
Expert Modeling
Typical result: specialized
model whose
recommendations never get
implemented because they
lack stakeholder support
Source: Van den Belt, Mediated
Modeling

6. Who are our Stakeholders?
• USAID Washington
• USAID Zambia Mission
• COMACO
• IAPRI
• SIMLEZA
• Total Land Care
• BioCarbon Partners
• CIFOR
• Africa RISING
• Zambia Carnivore Research
• South Luangwa Conservation
Society

7. Stakeholder engagement timeline

9. Population
Fuel
Food
Grassland
Forest
Agricultural
Decision-
making
Wildlife
populations

10. 0.00E+00
1.00E+07
2.00E+07
3.00E+07
4.00E+07
5.00E+07
6.00E+07
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Hectares
Forest Cover in Zambia, 2010-2110

11. 0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
2042
2046
2050
2054
2058
2062
2066
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
2102
2106
2110
Hectares/Year
Major Causes of Deforestation, 2010-2110
Agricultural deforestation Charcoal deforestation Fuelwood deforestation

12. 0.00E+00
1.00E+07
2.00E+07
3.00E+07
4.00E+07
5.00E+07
6.00E+07
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Hectares Forest Cover with SI Interventions, 2010-2110
deforestation with deadwood
forest cover with AF
forest cover with 2x Yield

13. Eastern Province Model
Ifdc.org
0.00E+00
5.00E+05
1.00E+06
1.50E+06
2.00E+06
2.50E+06
3.00E+06
3.50E+06
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
2105
2110
Hectares
Land Cover in Eastern Province 2010-2110
Agricultural Forest Miombo Grassland Degraded
←17% loss
←22% loss
←22% loss

14. (Preliminary) Conclusions:
• Smallholder farmers are not
dominant drivers of habitat
degradation
• Conservation agriculture unlikely
to affect habitat degradation either
positively or negatively
• Focus should be on charcoal, large-
scale commercial farming
• We don’t know much about
poaching…or GMAs
• Eastern province may be
okay…unless charcoal business
expands

15. Africa Research in Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation
africa-rising.net
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