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www.nl2040.nl
The Netherlands of 2040

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Times Are a-Changin’

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Times Are a-Changin’

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New CPB Scenario Study
Question
How will we earn our daily bread in 2040?
Approach
Scenarios to deal with uncertainty
Answer
Smart people
Strong cities
Policy

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Specialisation of Work …
Brainstorm
Blueprint Prototype
Chips
Packaging
Retail
Retail
Retail
Retail
Production

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Smart People
Specialisation
Communication technology …
… leads to unbundling of tasks …
… global knowledge exchange …
… and production by specialist workers

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Generalisation

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Smart people
... or generalisation
Mechanics masters more complex systems
Insurance agents with broad portfolio
Expert system to diagnose illness
Design programmes
Write your own emails

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Smart People
Specialisation
Communication technology …
… leads to unbundling of tasks …
… global knowledge exchange …
… and production by specialist workers
Generalisation
Information technology …
… bundles tasks …
… performed by autonomous workers

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Cities Are the Place to Be
Stockholm
Barcelona Tokyo
Dallas
Packaging
Retail
Retail
Retail
Retail
Production

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Concentration of Economic Activity …

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Strong Cities
Concentration
Economies of scale …
… with face-to-face interactions …
… to develop new technologies

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… or Scattering of Economic Activity

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Strong Cities
Concentration
Economies of scale …
… with face-to-face interactions …
… to develop new technologies
Scattering
Networks of small cities …
… with excellent connections …
… facilitated by ICT

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Scattering
Concentration
GeneralisationSpecialisation
Two Uncertainties

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Four Scenarios
Scattering
Concentration
GeneralisationSpecialisation
Metropolitan
Markets
Cosmopolitan
Centres
Talent
Towns
Egalitarian
Ecologies

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Talent Towns
• Communication technology: specialists
• Interaction and surroundings: small cities
• Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges
• High incomes, yet high competition
• Low incomes under pressure
• Netherlands: business services
• Manufacturing to Asia

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Talent Towns
• Communication technology: specialists
• Interaction and surroundings: small cities
• Very dynamic: opportunities and challenges
• High incomes, yet high competition
• Low incomes under pressure
• Netherlands: business services
• Manufacturing to Asia

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Cosmopolitan Centers
• Bio- and nanotechnology: science based
• Communication: global division of tasks
• Cities: clusters of specialised activity
• Risk: other city takes over
• Substantial income inequality
• Examples of possible Dutch clusters:
• water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative

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Cosmopolitan Centers
• Bio- and nanotechnology: science based
• Communication: global division of tasks
• Cities: clusters of specialised activity
• Risk: other city takes over
• Substantial income inequality
• Examples of possible Dutch clusters:
• water, biomass, medical, logistics, creative

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Egalitarian ecologies
• Information technology: generalists
• Product variation: local demand
• Medium-sized cities: quality
• Moderate growth of incomes:
• Limited technological progress
• Wealth to raw materials suppliers
• East and south of Netherlands flourish

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Egalitarian ecologies
• Information technology: generalists
• Product variation: local demand
• Medium-sized cities: quality
• Moderate growth of incomes:
• Limited technological progress
• Wealth to raw materials suppliers
• East and south of Netherlands flourish

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Metropolitan Markets
• Bio- and nanotechnology break through
• Large firms: marketable applications
• Research centres and face-to-face contact
• Metropolis attracts firms and people
• Hinterland lags behind
• Large income inequality
• Netherlands large enough?

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Metropolitan Markets
• Bio- and nanotechnology break through
• Large firms: marketable applications
• Research centres and face-to-face contact
• Metropolis attracts firms and people
• Hinterland lags behind
• Large income inequality
• Netherlands large enough?

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The Magic Circle of Policymaking

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Attractors (A) and mobile production factors (M)
AMAMIdeas
absorbedlocal varietyneeds scaleweakHigh Tech Campus
attractor
AAMMDemand
AMAMWorkers
MMEECCTT

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Connections
localgloballocal and globalglobalIdeas
link to
Randstad
link to global
knowledge
part of local
infrastructure
part of
network
High Tech
Campus
limitedcontinentalglobalglobalFinal goods
localnationallocal and globalcontinentalWorkers
MMEECCTT

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The knowledge economy
fundamental
and applied,
within firms
applied and
incremental
radical,
firm-university
linkages
direct applications,
strong competition
Innovation
large firmsapplied,
differentiation
GPT research,
firm- university
specialisation,
competition
High Tech
Campus
generalgeneralspecificspecificKnowledge
different
workers
different
workers
similar
workers
similar
workers
Spillovers
among
application
oriented
0research
oriented
0GPT
MMEECCTT

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Innovation policy
0++++Innovation subsidy
0+0+Innovation credit
+++++Intellectual property rights
largesmalllargesmallCompany size
incumbentsincumbentsbothentrantsCompany market position
genericgenericspecificspecificPolicy orientation
00+0Public – private cooperation
hardlylimitedhighlimitedPolicy scope
MMEECCTT

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High Tech Campus Eindhoven: summary
large firmsapplied,
differentiation
GPT research,
firm - university
specialisation,
competition
Knowledge
link to
Randstad
link to global
knowledge
part of local
infrastructure
part of networkConnections
absorbedlocal varietyneeds scaleweakAttractor
IPRIPR, subsidy
and credits
PPP, IPR,
subsidy
IPR, subsidy
and credits
Policy focus
hardlylimitedhighlimitedPolicy support
MMEECCTT

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www.nl2040.nl