Many software projects still fail in recent years, also agile projects. Improving estimation maturity in order to start with a realistic estimate instead of an optimistic one can really save billions of dollars in most local software industries. The Chinese government may now be moving towards an active software estimation maturity improvement strategy in its new 5-year plan. Functional size measurement and relevant historical data as well as parametric estimation tools are key to such a strategy. This presentation was the key-note speech at the China System and Software Process Improvement Association conference on software estimation, Beijing China, May 27 2016.