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A Look at  The Federal Bailout(s) November 22, 2008 December 13, 2008
AKA:  E mergency  E conomic  S tabilization  A ct of 2008 AKA:  TARP, or  Troubled (“Toxic”) Asset Relief Program
AKA:  E mergency  E conomic  S tabilization  A ct of 2008 AKA:  TARP, or  Troubled (“Toxic”) Asset Relief Program And make room for: TALF, Term-Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility
Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Current Economic Situation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Current Economic Situation Unemployment Sept.  Oct.  Nov. Stock Market Friday Closes 1,523.57 741 6.32% +47.59 800.03 S&P 13,780.11 7,449 6.14% +494.13 8,046.42 Dow 52 wk Hi 52 wk Lo %B(W) B(W) close November 21, Florida Texas California National 6.4 5.1 7.7 6.1 6.6 5.6 8.2 6.5 7.0e 6.7 .70% 6.14 ?2 S&P .75% 64.59 ?1 Dow %B(W) B(W) close December 12 ,
The Current Economic Situation Unemployment Sept.  Oct.  Nov. Stock Market Friday Closes 1,523.57 741 6.32% +47.59 800.03 S&P 13,780.11 7,449 6.14% +494.13 8,046.42 Dow 52 wk Hi 52 wk Lo %B(W) B(W) close November 21, Florida Texas California National 6.4 5.1 7.7 6.1 6.6 5.6 8.2 6.5 7.0e 6.7 .70% 6.14 879.73 S&P .75% 64.59 8,629.68 Dow %B(W) B(W) close December 12 ,
Fun Stats ,[object Object],? ?
Fun Stats Date Value ?6 1/14/00 Start of Clinton Bull Market ?5 8/12/82 Start of Reagan Bull Market ?4 12/6/74 Dow: All Time Low 14,164 ?3 Dow: All Time High
Fun Stats 11,723 1/14/00 Start of Clinton Bull Market 776 8/12/82 Start of Reagan Bull Market 577 12/6/74 Dow: All Time Low 14,164 10/9/07 Dow: All Time High
So What Happened? ,[object Object]
Precipitated by a  ^ Sub Prime Meltdown Global Swiss, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel . $2.5B write down with money raised from Qatar Sovereign Fund; Saudi Arabia; and Israel’s Koor Ind Credit Suisse 2/08 France E$7B write down of US subprime  Societe General 1/08 UK $45B bailout of a $2.5T Asset institution HSBC 11/07 Swiss $4B write down of Subprime mortgages USB 9/07 UK $42B rescue by Bank of England Northern Rock (Lender) 9/07
The Scope of the Challenge US Purchased by BofA for $50B 5,200 jobs lost Merrill Lynch 9/08 Germany E$6B in write downs on a $2.6T in assets Deutsche Bk 7/08 US, Japan Announces “an issue” – Japan freezes Asian assets Eventually losing 13,900 jobs 10/08 Lehman Bros 6/08 Scotland L$12B “right issue” Royal Bank of Scotland 4/08 US After 85yrs, sold to JPMorgan/Chase for $2/sh – eventually $10/sh; JP Morgan later bought WAMU for $1.9B Bear Sterns 3/08
The Scope of the Challenge US $32B takeover by FDIC at the time was second largest bank failure in US history; eventual cost of $4B - $8B IndyMac 7/08
The Scope of the Challenge Reinvents itself away from investment banker;  Goldman Sachs 9/08 Japan Nomura purchases in “exclusive talks” Lehman, Asia 9/08 Japan Mitsubishi, UFG takes 10% -20% stake for $9B with at least one representative on their board Morgan Stanley 9/08 After BK filing, Barclay’s UK pays $1.75B Lehman, N. America 9/08 UK UK’s largest mortgage lender taken over by Lloyds using L$11.5b in gov funding HBOS,  PLC   9/08
The Scope of the Challenge ?? Dutch, Tawain Gives up $11B equity after spinning off Taiwan Life Ins grp ING 9/08 France, Belgium, Dutch, Luxemborg, French bank agrees to take over Fortis buying out Belgium’s interest BPN, Paribas 9/08 Iceland Iceland’s 3 rd  largest bank nationalized; Glitner 9/08 US $12B bailout; sold initially to Citi  Wachovia 9/08
The Granddaddy of them all ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],? ? ?
US Seized and sold to JP Morgan after a $16.7B run on the bank; est $19B in bad debts; WAMU  (At $307B in assets & $188B in Dep’s, biggest bank failure in US history) 9/08
Fun Stats ,[object Object],? ?
“ Who Said It ” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ We Never Saw It Coming ” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Financial Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Financial Market  130,000 Jobs Loss
LenderImplode.com ,[object Object]
“ We got a big problem”  -  George W. Bush, September, 2008
More Signs of the Times ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Signs of the Time ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who’s Doing Well? ? ? ? ?8._____  _______
Who’s Doing Well? Wal-Mart  doing nicely realizing 50% of all retail gains; last yr only 10% of retail gains; Early economic indicator may be Starbucks
Drastic Solutions in Drastic Times
?9. Can You Name This Man?
OK Just In Case You Were Sleeping ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Secretary of The Treasury, Henry M. Paulson, Jr.
BUT ,[object Object]
The  ^ Solution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],First
The  ^  Solution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Second
Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EESA of 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Actions thus Far ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Creates  TARP ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
? So What Do the Economists Think? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Economists Seem to Have Four Concerns  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
4. But Do Something :  There is widespread agreement that further erosion could have caused “massive systemic failure of global financial markets.”
What if your  >>_____________________<<  failed just when you needed them?
That Brings us to the  ^ Solution  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Second Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, TALF, 11/25/08
Consider a microcosm for a Second and let’s make it personal…
So a Bailout was probably necessary.  Now what?
Worth Watching ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Watching the Moving Parts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
New Foreclosures  ,[object Object],Nationwide numbers were 2,795,420 new filings and 479,461sales YTD through July. Through October, 2008
The Latest Senate Banking Committee Chairman, Chris Dodd says Congress may have to reconsider some parts of the financial plan it approved. Ford, Chrysler and GM seek $25B to “retool.”  Question:  Does trading the corp. jet  for a PR road rally show they understand Main St sentiment?  Question : Why has this become a political play when the election is safely behind us? ? ?
?10. So What’s This Gonna Cost? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],? ? ?
How does this add up?  Maybe $8.5T (as in Trillion) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How does this add up?  Maybe $8.5T (as in Trillion) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How does this add up?  Maybe $8.5T (as in Trillion) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Total?  Over  $8.5T ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Other Solutions to Watch ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
We should be careful what we ask for.
Issues/Concerns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
But ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Some Presidential Numbers: 6.1% Inflation (CPI) N/A Unemployment rate 22.7% GDP growth $180 GDP (in billions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 1943 4.2% Inflation (CPI) 3.6% Unemployment rate 9.3% GDP growth $910 GDP (in billions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 1968 5.8% Inflation (CPI) 7.7% Unemployment rate 11.4% GDP growth $1.825 GDP (in trillions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 1976 3.2% Inflation (CPI) 9.6% Unemployment rate 8.7% GDP growth $3.536 GDP (in trillions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 1983 1.8% Inflation (CPI) 5.5% Unemployment rate 4.25% GDP growth $11.466 GDP (in trillions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 2004*
Also out There ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Meanwhile:  Conserve and Control Replaces Conspicuous Consumption ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conserve and Control ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Granderson Associates Law Offices
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Hope Never Hurts -Cornel Hunter
Thank You ,[object Object],? ? ?
Test Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Equinaire's TARP Overview

  • 1. A Look at The Federal Bailout(s) November 22, 2008 December 13, 2008
  • 2. AKA: E mergency E conomic S tabilization A ct of 2008 AKA: TARP, or Troubled (“Toxic”) Asset Relief Program
  • 3. AKA: E mergency E conomic S tabilization A ct of 2008 AKA: TARP, or Troubled (“Toxic”) Asset Relief Program And make room for: TALF, Term-Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. The Current Economic Situation Unemployment Sept. Oct. Nov. Stock Market Friday Closes 1,523.57 741 6.32% +47.59 800.03 S&P 13,780.11 7,449 6.14% +494.13 8,046.42 Dow 52 wk Hi 52 wk Lo %B(W) B(W) close November 21, Florida Texas California National 6.4 5.1 7.7 6.1 6.6 5.6 8.2 6.5 7.0e 6.7 .70% 6.14 ?2 S&P .75% 64.59 ?1 Dow %B(W) B(W) close December 12 ,
  • 7. The Current Economic Situation Unemployment Sept. Oct. Nov. Stock Market Friday Closes 1,523.57 741 6.32% +47.59 800.03 S&P 13,780.11 7,449 6.14% +494.13 8,046.42 Dow 52 wk Hi 52 wk Lo %B(W) B(W) close November 21, Florida Texas California National 6.4 5.1 7.7 6.1 6.6 5.6 8.2 6.5 7.0e 6.7 .70% 6.14 879.73 S&P .75% 64.59 8,629.68 Dow %B(W) B(W) close December 12 ,
  • 8.
  • 9. Fun Stats Date Value ?6 1/14/00 Start of Clinton Bull Market ?5 8/12/82 Start of Reagan Bull Market ?4 12/6/74 Dow: All Time Low 14,164 ?3 Dow: All Time High
  • 10. Fun Stats 11,723 1/14/00 Start of Clinton Bull Market 776 8/12/82 Start of Reagan Bull Market 577 12/6/74 Dow: All Time Low 14,164 10/9/07 Dow: All Time High
  • 11.
  • 12. Precipitated by a ^ Sub Prime Meltdown Global Swiss, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel . $2.5B write down with money raised from Qatar Sovereign Fund; Saudi Arabia; and Israel’s Koor Ind Credit Suisse 2/08 France E$7B write down of US subprime Societe General 1/08 UK $45B bailout of a $2.5T Asset institution HSBC 11/07 Swiss $4B write down of Subprime mortgages USB 9/07 UK $42B rescue by Bank of England Northern Rock (Lender) 9/07
  • 13. The Scope of the Challenge US Purchased by BofA for $50B 5,200 jobs lost Merrill Lynch 9/08 Germany E$6B in write downs on a $2.6T in assets Deutsche Bk 7/08 US, Japan Announces “an issue” – Japan freezes Asian assets Eventually losing 13,900 jobs 10/08 Lehman Bros 6/08 Scotland L$12B “right issue” Royal Bank of Scotland 4/08 US After 85yrs, sold to JPMorgan/Chase for $2/sh – eventually $10/sh; JP Morgan later bought WAMU for $1.9B Bear Sterns 3/08
  • 14. The Scope of the Challenge US $32B takeover by FDIC at the time was second largest bank failure in US history; eventual cost of $4B - $8B IndyMac 7/08
  • 15. The Scope of the Challenge Reinvents itself away from investment banker; Goldman Sachs 9/08 Japan Nomura purchases in “exclusive talks” Lehman, Asia 9/08 Japan Mitsubishi, UFG takes 10% -20% stake for $9B with at least one representative on their board Morgan Stanley 9/08 After BK filing, Barclay’s UK pays $1.75B Lehman, N. America 9/08 UK UK’s largest mortgage lender taken over by Lloyds using L$11.5b in gov funding HBOS, PLC 9/08
  • 16. The Scope of the Challenge ?? Dutch, Tawain Gives up $11B equity after spinning off Taiwan Life Ins grp ING 9/08 France, Belgium, Dutch, Luxemborg, French bank agrees to take over Fortis buying out Belgium’s interest BPN, Paribas 9/08 Iceland Iceland’s 3 rd largest bank nationalized; Glitner 9/08 US $12B bailout; sold initially to Citi Wachovia 9/08
  • 17.
  • 18. US Seized and sold to JP Morgan after a $16.7B run on the bank; est $19B in bad debts; WAMU (At $307B in assets & $188B in Dep’s, biggest bank failure in US history) 9/08
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Financial Market 130,000 Jobs Loss
  • 24.
  • 25. “ We got a big problem” - George W. Bush, September, 2008
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. Who’s Doing Well? ? ? ? ?8._____ _______
  • 29. Who’s Doing Well? Wal-Mart doing nicely realizing 50% of all retail gains; last yr only 10% of retail gains; Early economic indicator may be Starbucks
  • 30. Drastic Solutions in Drastic Times
  • 31. ?9. Can You Name This Man?
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. ? So What Do the Economists Think? ? ? ? ? ? ?
  • 41.
  • 42. 4. But Do Something : There is widespread agreement that further erosion could have caused “massive systemic failure of global financial markets.”
  • 43. What if your >>_____________________<< failed just when you needed them?
  • 44.
  • 45. Consider a microcosm for a Second and let’s make it personal…
  • 46. So a Bailout was probably necessary. Now what?
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50. The Latest Senate Banking Committee Chairman, Chris Dodd says Congress may have to reconsider some parts of the financial plan it approved. Ford, Chrysler and GM seek $25B to “retool.” Question: Does trading the corp. jet for a PR road rally show they understand Main St sentiment? Question : Why has this become a political play when the election is safely behind us? ? ?
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57. We should be careful what we ask for.
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. Some Presidential Numbers: 6.1% Inflation (CPI) N/A Unemployment rate 22.7% GDP growth $180 GDP (in billions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 1943 4.2% Inflation (CPI) 3.6% Unemployment rate 9.3% GDP growth $910 GDP (in billions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 1968 5.8% Inflation (CPI) 7.7% Unemployment rate 11.4% GDP growth $1.825 GDP (in trillions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 1976 3.2% Inflation (CPI) 9.6% Unemployment rate 8.7% GDP growth $3.536 GDP (in trillions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 1983 1.8% Inflation (CPI) 5.5% Unemployment rate 4.25% GDP growth $11.466 GDP (in trillions) ECONOMY SNAPSHOT: 2004*
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65. Hope Never Hurts -Cornel Hunter
  • 66.
  • 67.