11. 3.3 Billion in Perspective
Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.html
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html
12.
13. Mobile Phone Adoption Still Growing
• China Mobile has 317 million subscribers—more than U.S. population.
• China total market is half a billion users. They are adding 6 million
subscribers per month.
• 28% of mobile phone owners have two or more subscriptions.
• Average for industrialized countries is over 100% subscriber rate, led
by 140% subscriber rate for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy and Israel.
(U.S. is at a paltry 80%)
• Percentage of younger phone users increasing. Normal for children
under 10 years old to have a phone in Europe and Asia.
• Population grows by 3 people a second. 38 mobile devices a second.
14. Usage is Changing: No Longer Simply a Phone
Mar 2007 Oct 2007
70.0%
62%
52.5%
46% 47%
35.0% 36%
29%
24%
17.5%
0%
13-to-24 25-to-41 All
20% say they view video content daily or almost daily
Source: http://www.wireless-watch.com/2008/01/02/americans-more-connected-online-says-deloitte-touche-study/
15. The 7th Mass Media
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/
317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
16. The 7th Mass Media
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/
317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
17. The 7th Mass Media
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/
317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
18. The 7th Mass Media
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/
317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
19. The 7th Mass Media
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/
317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
20. The 7th Mass Media
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/
317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
21. The 7th Mass Media
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/
317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
22.
23. It's the recreation of the
Internet, it's the recreation of
the PC story and it is before us
— and it is very likely it will
happen in the next year.
Eric Schmidt, Google CEO speaking at Davos, January 2008
24. Parallels to Early Internet Days
• Email is the most sought after feature. Businesses pushing smart
phone adoption for employees.
• Fractured platform. Few standards. Fewer reliable.
• Proprietary development environments.
• Poor documentation.
• Return to browser wars.
• Radically changes many things including business plans, advertising,
metrics, and development practices.
• No one knows the patterns for success (design, dev, or business)
25. Adoption of Internet
• In 1994, best estimates were 20 to 30 million people on the Internet.
That is less that 1% of the world’s population at the time.
• Today, 12% of carrier revenue is data services and only 16% of users
access the web on those devices once a month.
• 1994, 5% of people surveyed said that they were willing to pay fees
for web access. 97% of people were using Mosiac and a text browser,
Lynx was #2
• Late 1994, 18% using Netscape and 71% said they might pay
depending on cost and quality.
26. The Hope for Mobile
What is the
likelihood of
exponential
growth for the
Internet on Mobile
Devices?
27. “The Mother of
all Markets.”
Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk
CEO, 2008
John Sculley, Apple
CEO, 1992
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260
33. January 2008 Mobile Browser Stats
iPhone + iPod WinCE Symbian Hiptop
8%
4%
23%
65%
Source: www.netapplications.com
34. “It’s about usage. Not units”
• Number of queries on Google search from iPhones surpassed those
from Symbian-based phones in the days after Christmas. Nokia’s
Symbian-based phones are 40% of the market worldwide.
• German iPhone users consume 30 times more data.
• 95% of iPhone customers regularly surf the Internet. Data services
revenue increased from $2.7 billion in 2005 to $6.9 billion in 2007.
• Google sees 50 times the number of searches using the iPhone than
any other mobile device. They were so surprised, they asked their
engineers to check the logs to make sure it was correct.
• This is why major companies, Google, Quicken, etc. are all launching
iPhone-optimized services despite the iPhone’s 1% market share.
36. The Pace of Innovation is Picking Up
• Google Android open mobile OS
joins Limo. OHA formed
• AOL Open Mobile Platform
• Nokia buys Trolltech, Launches
advertising network
• Microsoft buys Danger
• Yahoo Mobile Widgets, oneConnect
Social Network
• iPhone SDK in this month
37. Carrier Landscape Changing
• Push for open networks. Commitment from Verizon for open network
by end of 2008.
• New wireless spectrum bidding included openness requirements.
• Flat rate data plan options growing.
• iPhone opened doors for phone providers to push carriers to do things
that they were unwilling to do in the past.
• Tremendous pressure on carriers because of 40% churn in subscribers.
38. Changing Business Models Already Beginning
• Free mobile network for 16 to 24 year olds in Europe
• Most di cult demographic to reach
• Exchange information and willingness to receive ads for free phone
and text message usage
• Interactive advertising using SMS
• Resulting in 12 to 24% response rates versus direct mail and web
advertising rates of < 1%.
39.
40. For Developers and Designers
• Start reading and learning now
• Embrace the constraints
• Small screen, slower processors, slower network
• Lack of standards
• Fragmented development platforms
• Key decisions:
• On the deck vs. O the deck.
• What device classes will you support?
41. Embrace what is unique about mobile
• Personal • Identifiable
• In your pocket • Locatable
• Always on and connected • Users on the go
42. Pick the right target audience.
Be willing to experiment.