HIV Epidemiology in the Prairies
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HIV stats, news, views, in Saskatchewan
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HIV Epidemiology in the Prairies
- 1. GREG RIEHL, R.N., SASKATCHEWAN HIV HCV NURSING ED ORG Epidemiology in the Prairies: Spotlight on Saskatchewan
- 16. Where do we collect data in SK?
- 18. Who do we collect data from? And what do we do with the information?
- 19. Do we treat all communicable diseases the same?
- 33. Denominators (c) B. Gerstman Chapter 6 Denominators: reflection of population size
- 37. “ Rate” Gerstman Chapter 2 Loosely, the “rate” of an event is the number of events divided by population size
Notas do Editor
- Why was there a dramatic increase in the rate of HIV in 2008?
- The term epidemic can be applied to any disease or health-related condition that occurs in clear Excess of normal expectancy. Define these terms: epidemic , pandemic , endemic , morbidity , mortality .
- The term epidemic can be applied to any disease or health-related condition that occurs in clear Excess of normal expectancy.
- Another point to remember is that looking at the years in which people tested HIV positive does not tell you when they were infected - the test itself may come many years after infection occurred. And when looking at HIV reports, it's important to keep in mind that there might be more than one reason for trends in the data. An increase in diagnoses might not mean that more people are becoming infected with HIV than in previous years - it might mean, instead, that HIV testing has become more easily available than in recent years, or that stigmatisation of people living with HIV has declined, so more people are willing to be tested.
- analogous - similar
- A competing pathogenic hypothesis at the time was that HIV was caused by environmental toxins, such as "poppers.“ In terms of characteristics (such as age, gender, race, etc), HIV reports are not necessarily entirely representative of all HIV infections because some groups of people may be more likely to be tested than others. It is worth remembering this limitation when interpreting reported statistics by exposure category in particular. Reports from the most recent years are usually affected by reporting delays
- With reported diagnoses, each number indicates an actual positive result for a person's HIV test. This method of looking at an epidemic can give an extremely clear picture in terms of real people who have been affected by the virus, especially when looking at smaller areas. However, it is often not a reliable way of assessing wider trends because many people living with HIV have never taken an HIV test, and not all diagnoses are reported.
- If data collection is different across the province, community, or nation, can we compare. Can we compare if populations are different? Who should we compare our data too? And for what reason?
- Because the next swan you see may not be white.
- Why or why not?
- 3. Everyday behaviors and experiences often provide useful analogies and examples for the kinds of thinking used in epidemiology. Think of an instance when you tried to figure out why something in your everyday life (e.g., a computer program, illness or clinical experience, automobile, etc.) was not working the way it was supposed to. How did you proceed? What steps did you follow to figure out the problem? What observations did you note? Did you try altering settings and observe changes? How successful were your observations? 4. Describe three attributes of public health problems that make them particularly difficult to study in terms of cause and effect. http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/gerstman/eks/Lab_The_Epidemiologic_Tradition.pdf
- How has surveillance and data been used to change programs at provincial or national levels? Do targeted interventions work or do targeted interventions further stigmatize key populations? What about general messages in the media? Most messages in the media report HIV in relation to IDU, Aboriginal, prostitutes, ...
- So, when HIV prevalence is reported for Aboriginals in Saskatchewan, what does this mean? In most cases, HIV prevalence cannot be accurately determined from reported cases because many infections are undiagnosed or unreported. The best estimates are mainly based on the results of surveys of large groups of people. How many HIV tests are performed in SK per year? How does this compare to other provinces as far as prevalence is concerned? We most likely would have to dig deeper.
- What goes into the numerator of an incidence proportion? No. of disease onsets. What goes into the denominator of an incidence proportion? Size of cohort at risk Why do denominators of incidence proportions exclude those who are not at risk? Because they do not have the potential to develop the disease.
- prevalence count population size None; prevalences are proportions, and proportions are unit-free “dimensionless” numbers. It considers both new and old cases and involves no follow-up of individuals (also see Table 6.2, p. 135). Prevalence will increase over time.
- What is the prevalence in SK? Double the national average? Prevalence versus the number of infections versus incidence. Prevalence rate refers to the percentage of a country’s whole population infected with a disease. The number of infections can either be the total number, or expressed in 100,000s, ie: 5 per 100,000 people. Incidence refers to the number of new cases of a disease in a population over a specific period of time, usually annually.
- The first thing to understand is that the crime rate is not the same as the actual number of crimes. Crime rates are the result of crimes reported to police. Since most people don't report crimes, the official rates provided by the FBI in the Uniform Crime Reports are always less than the actual crime rate. Additionally, the UCR crime rates only reflect 8 different crimes: 1)Homicide 2) Robbery 3) Rape 4) Burglary 5) Aggravated Assault 6) Larceny/theft 7) Motor vehicle theft 8) Arson. Since the UCR, which is where crime rate data is collected from, doesn't report on other crimes, there could be all sorts of other crime going on over and above these 8 "index crimes" even if these are going down. However, once the police are aware of a crime, they prepare a report to go to the FBI for the annual UCR. The police can tweak how they report crimes to make their crime rate look higher or lower. For example, Burglary can be reported as just that, or the police can choose to code the incident as a trespass and a theft, which would make the burglary rate look lower. Also, police agencies are not required to actually send these reports to the FBI either, so this can have an impact on the overall crime rate. One final thing to keep in mind is that comparing crime rates at a local level can be rather deceptive unless you look at the hard numbers. For example, if a city has no murders one year and then 2 the next, the rate would have increased by 200% although 2 murders is hardly a crime wave. The types of crimes the police focus on can also change how crime statistics look. If the crime rate is based on crimes known to the police, more proactive enforcement on a particular category of crime or in a specific crime-prone area will make the reported numbers increase even if the actual true number of crimes has not. The rate goes up because of police action, but only because they are taking more reports and making more arrests. Other government agencies, such as the Bureau of Justice Statistics, also collects crime data and reports on crime rates involving crime categories not included in the UCR results. Drug crime is a good example of this. If the police suddenly crack down on drugs in an area, the number of police generated reports on drug offenses will increase, as will the reported crime rate. If they reduce enforcement efforts, the rate will go down even if the actual amount of crime doesn't. To truly understand crime statistics, you have to look at rates, hard numbers, the population of the reporting jurisdiction, the arrest and clearance rates, and consider that the numbers are influenced by a wide variety of factors, which always make the number lower than the actual number of crimes that take place in society since the police can't possibly be aware of all crimes.
- http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/gerstman/eks/
- – both sexes
- Article???? Statistics???? Are we being realistic????
- Does Saskatchewan have population based data? objectives of conducting a population-based HIV prevalence survey could include: :to obtain national and subnational estimates of HIV prevalence and demographic variation in HIV prevalence in the general population; :to provide information on HIV prevalence that can be used to calibrate, validate and improve the use of HIV sentinel surveillance data among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics; :to identify risk factors that predispose the general population and subpopulations to HIV infection; :to link the risk factors with biological measures and to assess the associations between the two; and :to assess the extent to which current interventions are accessible to the general population, including their impact on the population.
- What happens in Saskatchewan?
- What do ASO’s NGO’s want? Is lack of housing, residential schools, being aboriginal, related to HIV? How?
- Training would improve reporting on HIV/AIDS