The first live presentation of this webinar was so popular that we’re doing an encore presentation!
Join us for this 1-hour advanced webinar where we answer the question, “Why do we need hypothesis tests in process improvement?” and then stay with us as we walk you through a real, live hypothesis test direct from the Bahama Bistro!
WEBINAR: How to Set Up and Run Hypothesis Tests (ENCORE!)
1. How to Set Up and Run
Hypothesis Tests (ENCORE!)
Presented by Elisabeth Swan
2. About Our Presenter
• Managing Partner at
GoLeanSixSigma.com
• Co-Author of
The Problem-Solver’s Toolkit
• Co-host of the
Just-In-Time Café Podcast
Elisabeth Swan
/ElisabethSwan
@ConsultSwan
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4. Where Are You From?
Share your location in the Chat area!
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5. Our Mission and Core Values
Mission: Revolutionize the way people learn process
improvement - making it easy for everyone
everywhere to build their problem-solving muscles
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Cultivating Community
We create an inclusive and
positive space where
people around the world
connect with each other to
learn and grow.
Servant’s Heart
At our core we are here
to be of service to
others as guides and
teachers to encourage
people’s success.
Trailblazing Spirit
We have the courage to
challenge and inspire each
other to create a constant
state of awesomeness.
7. Learning Objectives
After attending this webinar you will be able to:
• Define the purpose of Hypothesis Tests
• Describe where they can be used to support
Continuous Improvement
• Create Null and Alternative Hypothesis
Statements
• Use the Hypothesis Decision Tree to select
appropriate tests
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8. Today’s Agenda
• What are Hypothesis Tests?
• Why do we need them in process improvement?
• When should we use them?
• How do we set up and run them?
• Any words of advice?
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9. What Are Hypotheses?
Hypothesis: An assumption made in order to
draw out or test its logical consequence.
• Assumptions result when observing, reviewing, or
documenting the process
• Hypothesis testing is a formal way to test those
assumptions with data
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10. Poll #1
How have you used Hypothesis Tests?
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A. To verify a root cause
B. To verify that the solution made a difference
C. To test the guarantee made by a vendor/supplier
D.I haven’t tried to use one yet
11. Examples of Product Assumptions
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Suppliers making claims about their products?
Prevagen
improves
memory in
90 days
Swiffer is 3x
more effective
than a broom
Sketchers
sneakers make
you lose
weight
17. Applying to Process Improvement
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Order
AccuracyY
Day of the
weekX
# of items
on the
order
X
Time of day
orderedX
# of
customer
returns
X
# of special
request
items
X
22. Bahama Bistro Example
• Problem – Cannot keep up with hot sauce
demand. 16% of the time, customers cannot
get the hot sauce they want
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I swear the
Downtown location
is part of this.
Let’s find out!
25. Null and Alternative Theories
A HA! –
There’s a difference!
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Ho Hum –
There’s no difference
Try to “reject”
the Null
Then we can pursue
the Alternative
26. Formal Hypothesis Statements
Null: There is no difference between the
average hot sauce sales at the Downtown
location and the Beachfront location
• μ1 = μ2
Alternative: The average hot sauce sales
at the Downtown location are not equal
to the average sales at the Beachfront
location
• μ1 ≠ μ2
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33. Poll #2
What are you testing?
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A. Comparing two or more defect rates
B. Comparing two or more cycle times
C. Checking if two things correlate
D.Other
E. Not sure yet
40. Poll #3: Mini-Quiz
In which case would you
reject the Null Hypothesis?
A. P-Value = .210
B. P-Value = .061
C. P-Value = .045
D.P-Value = .500
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41. Poll #3: Mini-Quiz
In which case would you
reject the Null Hypothesis?
A. P-Value = .210
B. P-Value = .061
C. P-Value = .045 – Correct answer!
D.P-Value = .500
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42. Accept or Reject the Null
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1. Practical
Problem
2. Statistical
Problem
3. Analysis
4. Statistical
Conclusion
P
44. Confidence & Risk
Confidence Level
• 95% Confidence
Risk of being wrong?
• 5%
What happens if you’re wrong?
• Reject the Null when there really is no
difference
• Accept the Null when there is a difference
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Standard
“I’m 95% confident that the inferences I’m
making based on testing these samples are correct”
47. The Need for Hypothesis Tests
• Potential for fixing the wrong root cause
• Risk of implementing improvements that
make no difference
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48. Poll #4
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Who here has ever:
A. Addressed a root cause that was not a critical “x”?
B. Fixed a process and saw no positive results?
C. Watched as others based fixes on assumptions?
D.Experienced some combination of the above?
E. Experienced none of the above?
49. Why Use Tests?
Define/Measure Phase – Verifying Standards (Tests
Optional)
Analyze Phase – Verifying Root Cause (Tests Required):
• Used to determine differences and correlations
• This is required for Black Belt Certification
Improve Phase – Verify Solutions (Tests Optional)
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50. Any Words of Advice?
• Clarify the practical problem
• Use the Decision Tree
• Set up the Null and Alternative Hypotheses Statements
• Remember you are looking for:
• A difference between particular strata
(Who, What, Where, When)
• Correlation between the Y and a particular X
• Check the P-Value
• Use Hypothesis Tests to verify “Xs” for root cause –
required for Black Belt Certification
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51. Today We Covered
• What are Hypothesis Tests?
• Why do we need them in process improvement?
• When should we use them?
• How do we set up and run them?
• Any words of advice?
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53. Getting Started
Learn more by starting some more training!
• White Belt Training & Certification (Training is FREE)
• Yellow Belt Training & Certification (Training is FREE)
• Green Belt Training & Certification
• Black Belt Training & Certification
• Lean Training & Certification
Coupon Code: 20HYPOTHESIS
20% discount on all courses!
*Expires June 28, 2019
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54. Go-Getter Membership
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• Access to all Single Modules ($298 value)
• Access to the Go-Getter Forums
• Access to Go-Getter Exclusive Webinars
• Support Tools ($226 value)
• 20% discount on ALL
of your purchases!
$199 for 1 year access
GoLeanSixSigma.com/ggm/
56. Upcoming Webinar: June 27, 11am PT
Register today at GoLeanSixSigma.com/webinars
We’ll select upcoming webinars based on your feedback,
so please share your feedback on the survey at the end of
close of this webinar.
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57. Just-In-Time Cafe Podcast
Tune in at GoLeanSixSigma.com/cafe for the latest
Lean Six Sigma news, easy ways to apply Lean Six Sigma and
interviews with process improvement leaders like you!
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59. Thank You for Joining Us!
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contact@goleansixsigma.com
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templates, infographics and more!
@GoLeanSixSigma/company/GoLeanSixSigma-com /GoLeanSixSigma 61