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Actual status of regional water resources?




                                             M. Baraer
Actual status of regional water resources?




                                             M. Baraer
Stages of glacier melt impact
Passing “peak water”




 • seven of the nine study watersheds have crossed a critical transition,
 and now exhibit decreasing dry season discharge.
 •La Balsa is undergoing a decline in dry season flow that probably
 began during the 1970s.
How are household
livelihoods impacted?
Vulnerability Summary Findings

  • Perceptions-households that
    noted climate change is taking
    place; detailed descriptions of
    effects
    – Llanganuco-98%    +/- 2% (95%)

    – Quilcayhuanca-94%    +/-4% (95%)

    – Querococha-100%     +/-2% (95%)
Vulnerability Summary Findings

  • Households preoccupied by
    recent climate changes taking
    place in region
    – Llanganuco-92%   +/- 3% (95%)

    – Quilcayhuanca-84%   +/-6% (95%)

    – Querococha-91%   +/-4% (95%)
Vulnerabilities-Increasing Weather Extremes


• Quer-95%; Quilcay-91%
  – Respondents indicating that
    significant and often extreme shifts
    in temperature variation,
    precipitation patterns and seasonal
    change have been occurring with
    greater frequency and intensity
Bryan Mark Peru night 2
Vulnerabilities-Shifting Water Variability


• Quer-93%; Quilcay-81%
  – Respondents indicating that over the
    course of the past 10 years (ranging
    from 3-10 years) water supplies have
    been decreasing during the dry season
Mulitiple Vectors of Vulnerability

  • Households reporting negative
    changes in their lives due to
    recent climate change
     – Llanganuco-72%          +/- 6% (95%)

     – Quilcayhuanca-88%           +/-5% (95%)

     – Querococha-94%          +/-4% (95%)



    More Details
    Bury et al, 2011, Climatic Change
    Mark et al, 2010, Annals
Vulnerability and Glacial Hazards Risks
  • One of the Highest
    Concentrations of Glacier
    related Disasters in the World
     – Avalanches
     – Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
       (GLOFS)
New Resource Struggles
                                          Quilcayhuanca

• From Quantifying Changes in                      Declining
  Water Resources to                                 H20
  Evaluating Water Use and
  Struggles


   – Spatial Rescaling of Access
     and Institutions                      Local communities
   – Governance struggles (grazing
     lands, irrigation, potable water)
   – Scarcity struggles (declining
     water, productive land)


                                         Huaraz Potable water

                                                    OSU LIDAR
Urban Potable Water Consumption by               EPS
Chavin (Huaraz and Caraz) and Chavimochic (Trujillo)

Huaraz:      3.2 million m3 in 1999
             4.8 million m3 in 2010

Caraz:       502,000 m3 in 1999
             896,000 m3 in 2010

Trujillo:     0% pre-1980s
        70% of city’s potable water from Santa River in 2010
Hydroelectricity and Santa River Water Use
Cañón del Pato Management
    1943-1972 Corporación del Santa

    1972-1996 Electroperú

    1996-       Egenor/Duke Energy
Cañón del Pato Megawatts
    pre-1958    0

    1958        50

    1967        100

    1982        150

    2001        263

•Santa River water use at Cañón del Pato increased from 45 m3/sec to 79 m3/sec
                                    in 1999
  •* 12 other Santa River watershed hydroelectric stations built since the 1950s
Bryan Mark Peru night 2
Coastal Irrigation along Lower Santa River
Year   Hectares Irrigated

1958   7,500

2004   144,000 (Chavimochic); 30,000 (Chinecas)
The Arid Coastal Shelf of Peru
                                            Regional

                                   • Hydraulic
                                     interdependence
                                     across the Andean
                                     escarpment
                                     – Only 2% of all the water
   Coastal
 Agriculture
                                       resources in the country
    And                                are available for the arid
Populations
     Are                               coast
 Extremely
 Dependent                           – Water is primarily
     On
Glacial Water
                                       available in rivers that are
                                       fed by glaciers in the dry
                                       season
Bryan Mark Peru night 2
The Chavimochic “Miracle”

• 1985-2011-$1.2 billion
• 144,000 ha improved land
• Will deliver 4 m3/s to Trujillo
• New hydropower
• Phase III Financing Issues
   – Chinese will lend ~$300m of “key
     financing”
   – President issued “Supreme
     Decree” in 2008 to eliminate any
     barriers
Summary


• Glacier surface area has dramatically decreased, upwards of
  86% in individual glaciers, while volume changes have
  surpassed amounts predicted from empirical formula (by 2-
  12 times).
• Such enhanced surface deflation bespeaks a more profound
  volume loss than previously suspected.
• Glacier-fed discharge has peaked glacierized streams
• Increasing impacts to resource-dependent household
  livelihoods along multiple vectors of vulnerability
Political Economies of Contention

   • Glacier recession and climate change have
     either created or influenced widespread
     environmental and social change in the region
   • The political-economies of these tensions are
     not “future” concerns, they are already
     underway
http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange

Related publications

Baraer, M., J.M. McKenzie, B.G. Mark and S. Knox (2009). Characterizing contributions of glacier melt
   and ground water during the dry season in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Advances in Geosciences
   22, 41-49.
Bury, J., A. French, J. McKenzie, and B. Mark (2008). Adapting to Uncertain Futures: A Report on New
   Glacier Recession and Livelihood Vulnerability Research in the Peruvian Andes. Mountain
   Research and Development, 28(3/4): 332-333.
Bury, J., B.G. Mark, J. McKenzie, A. French, M. Baraer, K.I. Huh, M. Zapata and J. Gomez (2010).
   Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca,
   Peru. Climatic Change, forthcoming.
Fortner, S., B.G. Mark, J.M. McKenzie, J. Bury, A. Trierweiler, M. Baraer, and L. Munk (2010). Elevated
    stream trace and minor element concentrations in a tropical proglacial stream. Applied
    Geochemistry, forthcoming.
Mark, B.G. and J.M. McKenzie (2007). Tracing increasing tropical Andean glacier melt with stable
   isotopes in water. Environmental Science and Technology 40 (20), 6955-6960.
Mark, B.G., J. Bury, J.M. McKenzie, A. French and M. Baraer (2010). Climate Change and Tropical
   Andean Glacier Recession: Evaluating Hydrologic Changes and Livelihood Vulnerability in the
   Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, forthcoming.
http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange

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Bryan Mark Peru night 2

  • 2. Actual status of regional water resources? M. Baraer
  • 3. Actual status of regional water resources? M. Baraer
  • 4. Stages of glacier melt impact
  • 5. Passing “peak water” • seven of the nine study watersheds have crossed a critical transition, and now exhibit decreasing dry season discharge. •La Balsa is undergoing a decline in dry season flow that probably began during the 1970s.
  • 7. Vulnerability Summary Findings • Perceptions-households that noted climate change is taking place; detailed descriptions of effects – Llanganuco-98% +/- 2% (95%) – Quilcayhuanca-94% +/-4% (95%) – Querococha-100% +/-2% (95%)
  • 8. Vulnerability Summary Findings • Households preoccupied by recent climate changes taking place in region – Llanganuco-92% +/- 3% (95%) – Quilcayhuanca-84% +/-6% (95%) – Querococha-91% +/-4% (95%)
  • 9. Vulnerabilities-Increasing Weather Extremes • Quer-95%; Quilcay-91% – Respondents indicating that significant and often extreme shifts in temperature variation, precipitation patterns and seasonal change have been occurring with greater frequency and intensity
  • 11. Vulnerabilities-Shifting Water Variability • Quer-93%; Quilcay-81% – Respondents indicating that over the course of the past 10 years (ranging from 3-10 years) water supplies have been decreasing during the dry season
  • 12. Mulitiple Vectors of Vulnerability • Households reporting negative changes in their lives due to recent climate change – Llanganuco-72% +/- 6% (95%) – Quilcayhuanca-88% +/-5% (95%) – Querococha-94% +/-4% (95%) More Details Bury et al, 2011, Climatic Change Mark et al, 2010, Annals
  • 13. Vulnerability and Glacial Hazards Risks • One of the Highest Concentrations of Glacier related Disasters in the World – Avalanches – Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFS)
  • 14. New Resource Struggles Quilcayhuanca • From Quantifying Changes in Declining Water Resources to H20 Evaluating Water Use and Struggles – Spatial Rescaling of Access and Institutions Local communities – Governance struggles (grazing lands, irrigation, potable water) – Scarcity struggles (declining water, productive land) Huaraz Potable water OSU LIDAR
  • 15. Urban Potable Water Consumption by EPS Chavin (Huaraz and Caraz) and Chavimochic (Trujillo) Huaraz: 3.2 million m3 in 1999 4.8 million m3 in 2010 Caraz: 502,000 m3 in 1999 896,000 m3 in 2010 Trujillo: 0% pre-1980s 70% of city’s potable water from Santa River in 2010
  • 16. Hydroelectricity and Santa River Water Use Cañón del Pato Management 1943-1972 Corporación del Santa 1972-1996 Electroperú 1996- Egenor/Duke Energy Cañón del Pato Megawatts pre-1958 0 1958 50 1967 100 1982 150 2001 263 •Santa River water use at Cañón del Pato increased from 45 m3/sec to 79 m3/sec in 1999 •* 12 other Santa River watershed hydroelectric stations built since the 1950s
  • 18. Coastal Irrigation along Lower Santa River Year Hectares Irrigated 1958 7,500 2004 144,000 (Chavimochic); 30,000 (Chinecas)
  • 19. The Arid Coastal Shelf of Peru Regional • Hydraulic interdependence across the Andean escarpment – Only 2% of all the water Coastal Agriculture resources in the country And are available for the arid Populations Are coast Extremely Dependent – Water is primarily On Glacial Water available in rivers that are fed by glaciers in the dry season
  • 21. The Chavimochic “Miracle” • 1985-2011-$1.2 billion • 144,000 ha improved land • Will deliver 4 m3/s to Trujillo • New hydropower • Phase III Financing Issues – Chinese will lend ~$300m of “key financing” – President issued “Supreme Decree” in 2008 to eliminate any barriers
  • 22. Summary • Glacier surface area has dramatically decreased, upwards of 86% in individual glaciers, while volume changes have surpassed amounts predicted from empirical formula (by 2- 12 times). • Such enhanced surface deflation bespeaks a more profound volume loss than previously suspected. • Glacier-fed discharge has peaked glacierized streams • Increasing impacts to resource-dependent household livelihoods along multiple vectors of vulnerability
  • 23. Political Economies of Contention • Glacier recession and climate change have either created or influenced widespread environmental and social change in the region • The political-economies of these tensions are not “future” concerns, they are already underway
  • 24. http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange Related publications Baraer, M., J.M. McKenzie, B.G. Mark and S. Knox (2009). Characterizing contributions of glacier melt and ground water during the dry season in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Advances in Geosciences 22, 41-49. Bury, J., A. French, J. McKenzie, and B. Mark (2008). Adapting to Uncertain Futures: A Report on New Glacier Recession and Livelihood Vulnerability Research in the Peruvian Andes. Mountain Research and Development, 28(3/4): 332-333. Bury, J., B.G. Mark, J. McKenzie, A. French, M. Baraer, K.I. Huh, M. Zapata and J. Gomez (2010). Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Climatic Change, forthcoming. Fortner, S., B.G. Mark, J.M. McKenzie, J. Bury, A. Trierweiler, M. Baraer, and L. Munk (2010). Elevated stream trace and minor element concentrations in a tropical proglacial stream. Applied Geochemistry, forthcoming. Mark, B.G. and J.M. McKenzie (2007). Tracing increasing tropical Andean glacier melt with stable isotopes in water. Environmental Science and Technology 40 (20), 6955-6960. Mark, B.G., J. Bury, J.M. McKenzie, A. French and M. Baraer (2010). Climate Change and Tropical Andean Glacier Recession: Evaluating Hydrologic Changes and Livelihood Vulnerability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, forthcoming.