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1. What do we call the difference between the birth rate and the
2. What is the main reason that the death rate has dropped over
3. Name 3 reasons that the birth rate is high in less developed
4. What do we call the death of babies before they are 1?
5. What is the current death rate in NZ?
TIME TO LEARN ABOUT A NEW MODEL
TO PREDICT POPULATION GROWTH!
• When we talk about a model in Geography, we are talking about
a visual way of predicting how something might happen based on
what has happened in other places
• The DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL or DTM shows
population change over time.
• The DTM studies how changes in the birth rate and death rate
can affect the total population of the country and the way a
• This model is based on what happened in Europe and North
America from when people were first living there to today
• This means developed countries can generally be found in the
later stages of the model and less developed countries are still in
the earlier stages of the model as they started developing later.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
• Draw this diagram into your books across a double page
• At this stage the population is not growing and the number of
people is small. This is because the birth rate and death rates
are both high.
WHY WOULD BOTH BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES BE
• No country is still in Stage 1. Remote tribes in the rainforests in
the Amazon or in a remote area in Laos may be the only example
of a group of people who fit this stage
REASONS FOR BIRTH AND DEATH RATE
Birth Rate is high
• Lack of family planning
• High Infant Mortality Rate:
putting babies in the 'bank'
• Need for workers in
• Religious beliefs
• Children as economic assets
Death Rate is high
• High levels of disease
• Lack of clean water and
• Lack of health care
• Competition for food from
predators such as rats
• Lack of educationNo country is currently
in this stage.
• Here the number of people are starting to grow as the death
rates start to fall but the birth rates remain quite high.
WHY WOULD THE DEATH RATE FALL AND THE BIRTH RATE
STAY THE SAME?
• Countries in this stage of the DTM include Afghanistan, Bhutan
REASONS FOR DECREASING DEATH RATE
Reasons for declining death rate
•Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
•Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
•Improved food production and storage
•Improved transport for food
•Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century;
• At this stage the population is growing very rapidly but the gap
between the birth and the death rates is starting to become
• At this stage the NATURAL INCREASE is HIGH
WHY WOULD THE BIRTH RATE STARTED TO HAVE
• Countries in this stage of the DTM include INDIA, Malaysia and
REASONS FOR DECLINING DEATH AND BIRTH
Reasons behind birth and death rate falling:
• Family planning available
• Lower Infant Mortality Rate
• Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
• Increased standard of living
• Changing status of women
• In Stage 4, the total population is high but it is no longer growing
very quickly. This is because the birth rate and death rate are
balanced as both are now low.
WHY HAVE BOTH THE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES LEVELLED
• Countries in this stage are usually developed. NZ, China and
Singapore would be located in this stage.
• This stage would occur in countries
where the number of babies born (birth
rate) is less than the number of people
dying (death rate).
• We call this being below
REPLACEMENT level, as in, there are
not enough babies born to replace the
old people dying
• Countries reaching this stage are likely
to be Japan and Germany
• This could mean that their total
population numbers may start to
DECLINE in the future
REASONS FOR CHANGES
Reasons for changes in birth
• Family planning
• Better health
• Later marriages
• Improved status of women
changes in death
• Good health care
• Reliable food supply
• People are generally living
• Birth Rate slight fall.
• Death Rate stable.
• Natural increase: gentle
Typical of Germany
WHAT ARE THE LIMITATIONS?
• It does not include the number of people migrating
• It assumes that all countries will go through the same process of
development, development will not happen equally and at the
same rates for each country
• There is no time scale
• Reasons for birth rates and death rates changing can be for very
different reasons in different countries
CAN YOU ANSWER THESE
1. At which stage is the death rate the highest?
2. At which stage is the natural increase the highest?
3. At which stage is there a natural decrease?
4. At which stage is population growth the highest?
CAN YOU TELL HOW DEVELOPED A
COUNTRY IS BY LOOKING AT THE DTM?
• As a country passes through the demographic transition model,
the total population rises.
• Most developing countries are at stage 2 or 3 (with a growing
population and a HIGH natural increase). Most developed
countries are now at stage four.
A QUICK CLIP TO RECAP AND SOME
A quick recap…..
EXTRA FOR EXPERTS: BIRTH
RATE, DEATH RATE AND
• DESCRIBE the progression of the birth rate and death rate of a
country as it moves through the stages and EXPLAIN how this
links to natural increase