This is the starting stimulus for a future of energy workshop taking place on 27 Sept in Stavanger, Norway. As part of the Nordic Edge 2018 event, and in partnership with ISPIM, we are running an accelerated session focused on key shifts for energy in smart cities over the next decade or so. More details are on https://www.nordicedgeexpo.org/program/ispim-immersive-workshop This draws on previous future agenda focus on the future of energy, the future of cities and the future of transport and is the starting point for a new more focused exploration of the specific changes and opportunities for low carbon, renewable EV driven urban energy strategies. More details on www.futureagenda.org

1. The Future of Energy in Smart Cities
Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions
27 September 2018

2. Future of Energy – The Nordic Perspective
A workshop is taking place at Nordic Edge in collaboration with ISPIM.
With a focus on future needs of smart cities, it is exploring what will be the
pivotal issues for energy supply and the key opportunities for innovation.
https://www.nordicedgeexpo.org/program/ispim-immersive-workshop

3. Global Insights
The starting views for this workshop have been selected from multiple
expert discussions on the future of energy, cities and transport that
have taken place over the past few years around the world.

4. Shell’s Sky Scenario
At the macro level, Shell’s most recent scenarios highlight that, if we are to
achieve the Paris Agreement ambitions, there needs to be a huge growth in
renewable energy as well as more nuclear and continued fossil contribution.

5. Energy Storage
Low cost, efficient storage, and particularly electricity storage, is the missing
piece in the renewables jigsaw. If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar
energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport sector.

6. Smart Grids
Pervasive smart meters, networked appliances and dynamic pricing drive a
reengineering of the electricity supply sector. Multiple fully inter-connected
IoT driven systems reduce waste, increase reliability and improve resilience.

7. Machine Learning Taking Control
With the rise of AI and autonomous computing, machine learning is
increasingly put in control of managing our energy systems –
quickly realizing efficiency savings of around 50% in some sectors.

8. Falling Cost of Solar
The consistent decline in the cost of solar PV modules over time follows
a 20% reduction for every doubling of production. At 2c per kWh, solar takes
off to become the world’s leading energy source within two decades.

9. Rise of P2P Micro-Actors
There is a blurring of energy consumers and producers to ‘prosumers’ who
do both: We see a move to multiple peer-to-peer micro-actors working
collectively across communities supported by new sharing platforms.

10. Accelerating EV
Leading OEMs see that, by 2030, around 3 in 10 new vehicles being sold
globally are EVs. This view has changed from 1 in 10 only two years ago.
EV charging spreads rapidly supporting new mobility business models.

11. Energy Security
Faced with both increasing nationalism and rising tension between
key energy suppliers, more high energy consumption countries seek to
ensure 100% energy security - even if it comes at a price.

12. HVDC Transmission
Advances in high-voltage DC transmission create the lower-cost / lower-loss
power super highway. Long distance transmission changes supply dynamics
and supports concentrated solar power and massive off-shore wind farms.

13. Influence of Key Cities
Cities are more important than countries and increasingly influential.
Often centres for innovation, they take the lead in setting the new standards
on air quality and EV adoption – many moving ahead of national targets.

14. Energy Harvesting
As improving energy efficiency becomes a central part of smart city
strategies, multiple means of better harvesting energy come to the fore.
More kinetic, passive solar, electro-magnetic and waste solutions emerge.

15. Big Business Defines the Future
Large multinational energy consumers define the future energy mix.
100% renewable energy becomes the norm for key sectors and spurs
development ahead of government and energy suppliers’ expectations

16. Deeper Collaboration
Partnerships shift to become more dynamic, long-term, multi-party
collaborations. Competitor alliances and public participation drive regulators
to create new legal frameworks for open, empathetic collaboration.

17. Core Questions
In the workshop we will be asking which of these will have greatest impact,
what other issues will influence Smart City energy provision and where we
will see the most significant innovation over the next decade.

18. FUTURE AGENDA OVERVIEW

19. Future Agenda
Future Agenda is an open think tank and advisory firm that helps
organisations to understand emerging opportunities, make more
informed decisions and place better, bolder strategic growth bets.
INSIGHT IMPACT
Global
Foresight
Industry
Insight
Bespoke
Research
New
Services
New
Products
New
Strategies
Core Team
Extended
Team
The Global
Network

20. Shell Technology Futures
In 2004 and 2007 we designed and ran global foresight projects for Shell
identifying the key technologies that would impact the next 20 years.
The projections in this research have proven to be over 95% accurate.

21. The World in 2020 and The World in 2025
In 2010 / 2015 we led unique multi-topic, collaborative global open foresight
programmes looking at the key changes for the next decade across 25 topics.
These included the future of transport, cities, data, health and energy.
www.futureagenda.org

22. Focused Open Foresight Projects
We run focused global projects exploring specific topics in depth.
Undertaken in collaboration with multiple leading organisations, these
generate rich, informed perspectives of emerging trends and opportunities.
Future of Cities
(2015/16)
https://www.futureofcities.city
Future of Philanthropy
(2016/17)
https://www.thefutureofphilanthropy.org
Future of Patient Data
(2017/18)
https://www.futureofpatientdata.org
Future Value of Data
(2018 – in progress)

23. Collaborative Approach
Multiple expert workshops around the world are hosted by different
organisations. The insights from all the events are shared openly.
A global report provides an informed view of pivotal future changes.
Level of Privacy Regulation:
DLA Piper https://www.dlapiperdataprotection.com
Heavy Robust Moderate Limited
Current Healthcare Expenditure
as a %GDP (2015)
COUNTRY TOTAL GOVT PRIVATE
San Francisco 19 JAN 2018
C Top 3 Challenges O Top 3 Opportunities E Top 3 Emerging Issues
London 14 DEC 2017 Oslo 30 OCT 2017
Dubai 27 SEPT 2017
C Data Gaps
Infrastructure
Digital Skills
O Predictive Analysis
Artificial Intelligence
Genetic Profiling
E Standardised Measures
Mental Health
Ulterior Motives
Johannesburg 10 OCT 2017
Frankfurt 25 JAN 2018
Brussels 9 NOV 2017
Boston 17 JAN 2018
Toronto 16 JAN 2018
Future of Patient Data (2017/18)
Locations and Key Insights
Australia 9.4 6.5 2.9
Belgium 10.5 8.6 1.8
Canada 10.4 7.7 2.8
UK 9.9 7.9 1.9
Germany 11.2 9.4 1.7
India 3.9 1.0 2.9
Norway 10.0 8.5 1.5
Singapore 4.3 2.2 2.0
South Africa 8.0 4.4 3.6
UAE 3.5 2.5 1.0
USA 16.8 8.5 8.4
C Combining Data Sets
Digital Skills
Resistance from HCPs
O Personal Data Sharing
Genetic Profiling
Artificial Intelligence
E Inequality
Privatization of Health Data
Data Sovereignty
Sydney 15 NOV 2017
C Linkability of Open Data
Data Gaps
Ulterior Motives
O Genetic Profiling
Predictive Analysis
Data Marketplaces
E New Models
Informed Consent
New Entrants
C Combining Data Sets
Getting Closer to the Patient
Expanding Set of Data
O Predictive Analysis
Personalisation
Artificial Intelligence
E Standardised Measures
Inequality
Global Data Sharing
C Ulterior Motives
Resistance from HCPs
Trust
O Artificial Intelligence
New Business Models
Mental Health
E Data Sovereignty
Patient Empowerment
Data Marketplaces
C Data Ownership
Ulterior Motives
Trust
O Data Marketplaces
Artificial Intelligence
Personalisation
E New Business Models
Privatisation of Health Data
Informed Consent
C Expanding Data Set
Combining Data Sets
Regulation
O Data Marketplaces
Personalisation
Artificial Intelligence
E Informed Consent
Data Sovereignty
Inequality
C Integration of Data
Data Quality
Unstructured Data
O Individualized Medicine
Artificial Intelligence
Data Marketplace
E Privatisation of Health data
New Business Models
Value of Health Data
C Getting Closer to the Patient
Combining Data Sets
Data Gaps
O Genetic Profiling
Artificial Intelligence
Proxy Data
E Inequality
Standardised Measures
Privatisation of Health data
C Combining Data Sets
Trust
Linkability of Open Data
O Embedded AI
Getting Closer to the Patient
Predictive Analysis
E New Business Models
Standardised Measures
Inequality
Singapore 13 NOV 2017
C Regulation
Combining Data Sets
Getting Closer to the Patient
O Artificial Intelligence
Individual Custodianship
Personalisation
E Data Sovereignty
Standardised Measures
Value of Health Data
Mumbai 23 NOV 2017
C Data Quality
Ulterior Motives
Data Ownership
O Data Marketplaces
India Setting Standards
Artificial Intelligence
E Informed Consent
New Models
Inequality

24. Large
Corporates
Technology
Firms NGOs Economists Government
Academia
/ Research Start-Ups Influencers
24
Immersive Workshops
Our workshops bring together a mix of expertise with varied perspectives to
help challenge and build a richer view. They are immersive, inclusive events
that explore future shifts and detail impacts, risks and opportunities.

25. Bespoke Support
We also provide bespoke research and advisory support for a
wide range of leading organisations exploring emerging issues,
identifying strategic options and defining future pathways.

26. Future Agenda
84 Brook Street
London UK
W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141
www.futureagenda.org
www.futureagenda.net
@futureagenda