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CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  1
KEY HEADLINES
FROM THE RESEARCH
z	Retailers Give Promising Outlook
for FY2017: Pervasive Optimism
for the Web; More Static in the
Store and HQ
z	Retailers Predict a Successful
Holiday Season: Biggest Boost
from Internet
z	The Competitive Landscape
Continues to Shift: Priority Placed
on Fast Fashion and Pop-Ups
z	Brick-and-Mortar Stores Are
in a State of Flux: Already in
Transition to a Different Role
that Supports Online
z	Web Presence Is Now the Price
of Entry in Retail: Omni-Channel
Approach Working for the
Most Part
z	Mobile and Social Offer
Competitive Advantage: 	
Even Incorporated into Hiring
Goals and Practices
z	Consumer Confidence Still
High, According to Retailers:
Regulations Also Favored by
Slight Majority
z	Change Is the Name of the Game:
Sharpen Focus Even More on
Customer Needs
z	Efficient Supply Chain Is
Essential: Same Concerns and
Planning Remain as Last Year
z	Differences by Size of Retailer:
Middle Market Retailers Are
Generally More Optimistic about
the Industry; but More Pessimistic
about Their Own Growth
Despite challenging same store sales, middle market retailers are
surprisingly bullish. Most retailers are hopeful that they will have a
successful Holiday Season and will achieve an increase in total sales for
FY16. They also have plans to continue that growth for the next three
years and to increase hiring for next year, especially in the internet/
mobile category.
Not unexpectedly, the retail landscape continues to transition to a more
online-heavy and store-light model. A web presence is now considered
essential. Most middle market retailers have already begun to generate
an omni-channel approach, with their physical stores playing a more
complementary role to their digital plans than they did in the past.
Retailers express a clear strategic focus on their growing e-presence
including further technology development, a change in their hiring
priorities and incorporation of a mobile channel.
The general feeling is that brand strength and popularity of prominent
retailers is steadily eroding, and many may not exist three years from
now. Middle market retailers have experienced continued challenges
from alternative offerings like fast fashion and pop-up shops, forcing a
more analytic review of their customers’ needs and a sharper focus on
innovation and flexibility. Most helpful to retailers in the coming year will
be the strength of consumer confidence, the availability of consumer and
business financing, and certain regulations involving labor, manufacturing
and information security.
Generally, the sentiment expressed by middle market retailers parallels that
of large retailers, but the middle market demonstrates a more cautious
optimism about their present condition, the upcoming holidays and the
near-term future. They are similarly more reserved in their hopefulness
about mobile and online. But that said, large retailers tend to have a more
critical view of the industry landscape including the likely demise of several
prominent retailers and competitive pressure from alternative options, like
fast fashion and pop-ups.
In order to uncover these trends and challenges (as well as the general
outlook) for the retail industry, Harris Poll, on behalf of CIT, a leader
in financing and treasury management services to the retail sector,
conducted an online survey from August 3 to 26, 2016. Respondents
are financial decision makers in 259 U.S.-based middle market retailers
(revenue between $5 million and $2.9 billion) and 51 U.S.-based large
business retailers (revenue of $3 billion or more).
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  2
For the most part, middle market retailers offer a confident
and positive view of the current state of their business.
Holding steady for the past two years, 4 in 5 describe their
finances as healthy or very healthy—and most envision
more sales growth in 2017.
The progress is not seen as coming from each sales channel
equally. Middle market retailers are far more optimistic
about sales from their website and mobile offering
than their store, catalog or phone channel (for which
expectations have been pulled back significantly since
last year). As an example, last year, two-thirds of retailers
believed that their physical stores would see a sales lift over
the coming three years. Today, there has been a big drop in
optimism as only 2 in 5 feel that way. By contrast, at least
7 in 10 envision sales continuing to rise from website and
mobile over the same near-term period.
Middle market retailers also anticipate growth across
a wide variety of employees cohorts, but again most
commonly in the internet/mobile category, along with
hourly staff. Only about one-quarter believe the number of
executives working at their headquarters will rise. Notably
the optimism regarding staff seems to be more cautious
today. The expected growth in mobile/internet and in-store
exempt employees is more limited than it was one year ago.
Retailers Give Promising Outlook for FY2017
Pervasive Optimism for the Web; More Static in the Store and HQ
VIEW ON SALES
STAFF OUTLOOK IN 2017
Number of staff devoted to
internet/mobile sales channels
2016: 54% vs. 2015: 62%
Total number of
hourly employees
2016: 52% vs. 2015: 54%
Number of
in-store exempt employees
2016: 40% vs. 2015: 51%
z	Looking forward to 2017, 48% expect
that the total number of hours worked
by hourly employees will increase, and
26% say the number of headquarters
executives will increase.
Less than half anticipate an
increase from in-store sales
(much less than the 65% last year)
Believe they will see an increase
in catalog/phone sales
(compared to 40% in 2015)
Though slightly down from last year, nearly 1 in 5 retail
executives (17%, down from 22%) anticipate an increase in
total sales of more than 10%.
z	Almost 4 in 5 (79%) anticipate an increase in total sales of
1% or more for fiscal year 2016, similar to previous years.
Only 9% expect a decrease, whereas 13% expect sales to
remain the same.
80% OF RETAILERS SAY...
their overall financial condition 	
is healthy or very healthy
Similar to 2014 and 2015 after an increase
from only 70% in 2013
SALES WILL INCREASE
As seen last year, more than	
7 in 10 retailers believe...
FROM WEBSITE (75%) AND MOBILE (72%) THREE YEARS FROM NOW
42%
24%
Though muted from last year, many retailers
expect an increase in…
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  3
The majority of middle market retailers offer a promising
picture of what the holidays (from Thanksgiving to New
Year’s) will look like this year. More than 1 in 5 (21%) expect
an increase of more than 10% in sales this Holiday Season—
almost no one today thinks sales will decline. In all areas,
middle market retailers are optimistic that during the
holidays, the number of hourly employees will increase as
well as their hours worked. The number of other employees
(like in-store exempt or headquarter executives) will also
likely hold steady or rise.
The price of fuel isn’t seen as having nearly the impact
that it did last year. Rather, the biggest contributors to
holiday sales are expected to be online shopping, in-store
or online discounts and Black Friday promotions.
In response to the perceived relevance of the internet,
over 1 in 2 middle market retailers also believe they will
need to dedicate even more staff to web/mobile channels
(though expectations for staff growth are not as dramatic
as a year ago, perhaps because they have already
increased staff to the necessary level).
Retailers Predict a Successful Holiday Season
Biggest Boost from Internet
DURING THE 2016 HOLIDAY SEASON
z The price of fuel is not expected to have
nearly as big of an impact as it did last year
(32%, compared to 39% in 2015).
3 in 5 retailers anticipate total sales for
the 2016 Holiday Season to increase by
6% (or more) over the previous season
60%expect an
increase in
2016 Holiday
Season sales
56%NUMBER OF 	
HOURLY EMPLOYEES
54%STAFF DEVOTED TO	
INTERNET/MOBILE SALES
52%HOURS WORKED BY 	
HOURLY EMPLOYEES
40%NUMBER OF IN-STORE
EXEMPT EMPLOYEES
47%
44%
BLACK FRIDAY
PROMOTIONS
IN-STORE OR
ONLINE DISCOUNTS
expect an expansion of
expect an expansion of
Most retailers expect to increase the…
NEARLY HALF EXPECT 	
AN INCREASE IN 	
ONLINE SHOPPING
to have the biggest
incremental impact
on holiday sales
compared to only 1 in 3 retailers
(33%) back in 2013.
49%
ONLINE SHOPPING
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  4
No longer do prominent and well-established retailers hold
the top position in the retail world. At least, they are not
seen as having the same cachet as they did in the past, and
instead may be losing ground to alternative options like
pop-up retailers and fast fashion stores. A slight majority
of middle market retailers believe that fast-fashion and
pop-up options present a rising challenge to middle
market and large retailers. And, nearly 2 in 5 go further to
say that these foreign fast fashion retailers have hurt their
business and have hampered their ability to compete.
More than 1 in 2 middle market retailers have already seen
some erosion in the consumer appeal and overall brand
value of the more prominent retailers (a slight increase in
pessimism from last year). Seven in ten now believe that at
least one prominent retailer will shut down in the next one
to three years.
More than half (51%) do not believe that offbrand or outlet
stores are a good idea, instead potentially causing harm to
a company’s image. Three-fourths of retail executives say
they use sales tactics that focus on markdowns and bundle
pricing. And most put forward these sales quite frequently
(for over one-third, at least once a month or more).
The Competitive Landscape Continues to Shift
Priority Placed on Fast Fashion and Pop-Ups
z	Middle market and large retailers agree
(53%) that fast fashion retailers (such
as HM, Zara, Uniqlo, etc.) are taking
consumers away from U.S. middle market
retailers and pose a threat to other
categories of goods.
	 â	Almost 2 in 5 (37%) say that foreign
fast fashion retailers have affected
their ability to compete, especially for
online-only retailers (68%) more than
omni-channel retailers.
z	Three in five (60%) believe that pop-up
retailers are creating greater competition
for larger, more established retailers.
z	More than 1 in 2 retailers (55%, up from
50% in 2015) feel that the consumer
appeal and overall brand value of
prominent retailers is on the decline.
	 â	However, this sentiment was much
higher two years ago in 2014 (65%).
z	Seven in ten (70%, up from 66% last year)
believe one or more prominent retailers
will likely disappear in the next 1-3 years.
z	Over half (51%) believe that offbrand and
outlet stores erode a brand’s value.
THREE-QUARTERS OF RETAILERS (76%)
USE SALES TACTICS THAT FOCUS ON
OF
RETAILERS
OVER 3 IN 5 RETAILERS (63%)
have sales multiple times per year
but less than once per month,
especially online-only retailers
(75%) compared to omni-channel
retailers (47%).
have sales at least
once a month,
if not more often
BUNDLE PRICING MARKDOWNS
44% 32%
36%
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  5
Today, retail sales from physical stores still outperform, on
average, those from website and mobile combined (46% to
41%, respectively). And, many believe that innovation (and
creating a unique shopping experience) is a way to attract
more customers to the brick-and-mortar channel.
That said, over 1 in 2 middle market retailers believe that it
will be impossible to survive in the future without an online
presence. Already today, physical stores appear to be going
through a transition. Almost 3 in 5 (though less than last
year) are using their stores differently than they have in the
past, and over 4 in 5 have adapted the role of their physical
stores to be more closely aligned with their digital strategy.
The majority feel that their stores are just the right size
right now to manage the demand, but at the same time,
many (more than one-third) admit they have certain stores
that underperform and would like to shut them down.
Nearly 3 in 5 retailers believe they are using physical stores
differently than they were one year ago (56%, less than the
65% from 2015).
z	82% feel they are using their physical stores in a way that
complements their digital channels.
Brick-and-Mortar Stores Are in a State of Flux
Already in Transition to a Different Role that Supports Online
SALE SOURCES
More than one-third of retailers (35%)
say they have too many stores in
underperforming locations and would
like to close them.
z	These underperforming stores are
most likely characterized by an
inconvenient location (56%), or being
too close to (53%) or too far away from
(52%) relevant competition.
More than 4 in 5 (81%)
feel that providing
a unique shopping
experience is an
innovative way to attract
new customers to brick-
and-mortar stores.
82%
Over 4 in 5 retailers say...
their stores are the
right size
PHYSICAL STORES
CATALOG/PHONE
13%
WEBSITE
MOBILE
46%
On average, retailers say that their sales
come from the following places…
26%
15%
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  6
Middle market retailers are much more likely to say that
their revenue is growing from website sales than from
physical in-store sales. This gap is greater today than it was
the previous year: 30 percentage points (75% from website
vs. 45% in-store) in 2016, compared to 12 percentage points
(71% vs. 59%) in 2015. So it is not surprising that having an
online presence is the #1 strategic investment for 2016 (also
in the top four are two other components of e-commerce:
social media and digital marketing).
Nearly all retailers believe that their omni-channel approach
is working well right now. The channels are also supporting
each other rather than competing; 3 in 5 even say very
well. Furthermore, they use their online sales growth as
the primary gauge. Technology is the biggest challenge in
getting everything to work seamlessly, and by extension,
it is also the most prominent part of the strategy going
forward. Middle market retailers are less likely to feel
struggles with the omni-approach this year, compared to
one year ago. And they are also much more likely to see the
advantages (than the disadvantages) of encouraging this
inter-dependence, with incentives like free shipping and
free returns even in the store. About half of retailers are also
allowing pick-up of online orders and fulfilling online orders
in the store to connect their channels together and ensure
they work together well.
z	Even more than last year, the most popular strategic
investments are: having an online presence (50%),
followed by digital marketing (46%), social media (44%)
and traditional marketing (41%).
z	77% agree that consumers’ ability to comparison shop
online has created a greater need for retailers to be
transparent about their pricing.
Web Presence Is Now the Price of Entry in Retail
Omni-Channel Approach Working for the Most Part
z	Retailers are less likely to say revenue
is growing from stores (45%, compared
to 59% in 2015) than the website (75%,
compared to 71%).
	 â	Expected growth from mobile is also
high at 65%, while phone/catalog is low
at 28%.
	 â	About 1 in 5 (22%) say the website is
growing faster than other channels, and
almost the same proportion (20%) feel
that way about mobile.
z	The vast majority (91%) believe that all
the channels they have made available to
customers are working together at least
somewhat well to enhance the customer
experience. 60% say “very well.”
	 â	Almost 3 in 5 (56%, less than last
year at 63%) believe that it has been
challenging to implement an omni-
channel strategy that provides a
seamless experience to consumers.
	 â	The primary challenges in getting all
channels to work together are: updating
technology (50%), followed by training
retail associates on using different
channels (41%) and building data
management systems (38%).
	 â	In order to connect their channels, the
key strategies have been to: update
technology (51%), fulfill online orders in
physical stores (49%) and offer online
orders with pick up in the store (47%).
	 â	The criteria to determine if their
channels are working successfully
together are: online sales growth (65%),
and less so, mobile sales growth (49%)
and physical store sales growth (47%).
z	Most retailers (71%, up from 61% last year)
believe the benefits outweigh the risks, if
only slightly, of offering free shipping, free
returns or in-store returns to customers
who shop on the website.
The biggest investment 	
priority for omni-channel
retailers is…
73%ONLINE PRESENCE
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  7
Most middle market retailers feel relatively confident in
their knowledge of social media strategies, continuing
a steady upward trend from 2013. And virtually all retail
executives know that social media must be a key part of
their strategic plan (i.e., no one today is ambivalent). About
3 in 5 have even changed their hiring practices to keep pace
with their digital and social strategy.
Revenue is also seen as growing from mobile, even more
than it was last year. Mobile apps are viewed as offering a
competitive advantage to retailers, and half have already
begun to create apps themselves. Most retailers have taken
clear steps to invest in mobile, like updating their website
and increasing their email campaigns. They also expect to
add staff to their internet/mobile sales channels. Nearly
7 in 10 understand that it is a tricky balance in providing
a highly customized and optimized customer experience
while simultaneously easing customers’ anxiety about how
much personal information they own (though this concern is
somewhat diminished from last year).
Similar to last year, almost 7 in 10 middle market retailers
consider themselves “advanced” or “expert” (67%) when it
comes to social media strategies (68% in 2015 and 53% in 2014).
And like last year, almost no one today is ambivalent (2%).
z	Not surprisingly, online-only retailers (29%) are nearly
three times more likely to feel they are an expert than
omni-channel retailers (11%).
z	Nearly 3 in 5 (58%, less than last year at 68%) have
changed their hiring practices to keep up with their
digital and social strategy.
Mobile and Social Offer Competitive Advantage
Even Incorporated into Hiring Goals and Practices
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
z	The most common steps that retailers use
to take advantage of mobile technology
remain: creating mobile applications
(51%, up from 43% in 2015); updating
their website to meet consumer needs
(50%, up from 45%); and increasing email
campaigns (46%, down from 52%).
65% OF RETAILERS
BELIEVE REVENUE IS
GROWING FROM MOBILE
UP FROM 57% LAST YEAR
A majority (54%) expects an increase in
the number of staff they have devoted to
internet/mobile sales channels.
Almost 7 in 10 (67%, a decline from last
year at 75%) believe that with their mobile
strategy, they are constantly balancing
providing an optimal, customized consumer
experience without alarming consumers
about the amount of information they hold.
z	Omni-channel retailers (88%) are more
likely to feel this way than those who are
solely online (65%).
Three-fourths of retail
executives say that retailers
with mobile apps have an
advantage over those
who do not.
75%
53%
mobile app
advantage
OF OMNI-CHANNEL RETAILERS HAVE
REBALANCED 	
MARKETING DOLLARS
away from traditional channels (print, radio,
etc.) toward new technologies to take
advantage of mobile technology, compared
to only 18% of online retailers and 27% of
brick-and-mortar retailers.
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  8
A slight majority of middle market retailers identify several
key external factors that they believe will give a positive
boost to their business over the next year. Consumer
confidence and availability of financing are both expected
to offer a lift to business performance heading into 2017.
Moreover, regulations involving labor, manufacturing and
information security are expected to be most influential (in
a good way) to about half of retailers.
Consumer Confidence Still High, According to Retailers
Regulations Also Favored by Slight Majority
LABOR  MANUFACTURING LAWS
z The majority of retailers expect consumer
confidence (63%) to have a positive impact
on their business over the next twelve months,
along with the availability of consumer (65%)
and business (59%) credit/financing.
MIDDLE MARKET RETAILERS VIEW
The Marketplace 	
Fairness Act
MORE FAVORABLY THAN THEY DID
ONE YEAR AGO...
As in 2015, retailers see federal laws/
regulations involving labor (54%) and
manufacturing (51%) as having the most
positive impact on the growth of
their business.
z	This is the same top two as last year,
along with information security (51%).
z	Middle Market retailers are equally
divided on the Marketplace Fairness
Act. Half (50%, up from 46% in 2015)
favor the act in order to level the
playing field between remote sellers
and local retailers. The other
half (50%, down from 54% in 2015)
oppose the act.
SENTIMENT IS NOW EQUALLY DIVIDED
more than omni-channel retailers (45% and 50%, respectively)
LABOR
LAWS
MANUFACTURING
LAWS
0NLINE-ONLY
RETAILERS ARE
MORE LIKELY 	
TO CITE THE 	
BENEFITS OF…
81%
73%
Federal Laws/	
Government Regulations
WITH NEGATIVE IMPACT
SALES TAXATION
HEALTHCARE PAYROLL TAXATION
MINIMUM WAGE
26%
23%
25%
21%
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  9
The top trends in the retail industry still hold from last year,
but in 2016 there appears to be an increased emphasis on
standing out and being different. Today, middle market
retailers see the most potential in both e-commerce and
experience shopping. Moreover, being equipped with only
traditional retail skills will not be sufficient in 2017; retail
executives must also have a keen knowledge of analytics,
technology and even engineering. And, they must actively
consume and apply information about their customers’
needs and interests.
In addition, there remain a few key challenges. Middle
market retailers generally recognize that they need to
demonstrate an effective plan to deal with cybersecurity
risks and data breaches. Notably, over 7 in 10 agree that
the current shift to chip-enabled credit and debit cards
(EMV) provide protection for consumers. With changing
trends in financial technology, 3 in 5 middle market retailers
also mention that it can occasionally be a struggle to
incorporate new forms of payment like Apple Pay and
Google Wallet.
Change Is the Name of the Game
Sharpen Focus Even More on Customer Needs
CHANGES TO BUSINESS
z	Approximately 4 in 5 (79%) say their
business has an effective plan to deal
with risks in cyber security and data
breaches at point of sale, if these issues
were to arise.
z	About three-quarters (72%) feel that the
current shift to chip-enabled credit and
debit cards (EMV) provides protection
for consumers.
z	Around 3 in 5 (61%) feel that in light
of the current economic climate, their
company has decided to move business
functions like design, warehousing,
distributions and logistics in-house to
improve profit margins.
z	Similar to previous years, a slight majority
of retailers (52%, down from 54% in
2015), agree that U.S. consumers care
more than ever about buying products
that are exclusively “Made in America.”
Almost three-fifths of retail executives
SAY IT IS CHALLENGING	
TO INCORPORATE NEW
FORMS OF PAYMENT59%
Three-quarters (75%, down from 80% last year) believe
that executives in the retail industry today need to be well
versed in areas like analytics, technology and engineering in
addition to having traditional retail skills.
z	More than 4 in 5 (84%) believe that now more than ever,
it is important for retailers to use analytics and data to
better understand who consumers are and how they want
to engage with retailers.
The STRATEGIES that are seen
as having the most potential 	
for growth for the retail
industry as a whole are:
59% e-commerce 	
51% experience shopping
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  10
There is fairly widespread agreement that an efficient
supply chain is crucial to online retailers. But over 2 in 5
middle market retailers express some concerns about their
supply chain’s viability and the impact of U.S. infrastructure
(though this issue has dissipated somewhat from last
year). Most middle market retailers feel somewhat—but
not overwhelmingly­—prepared to deal with unexpected
changes to their supply chain and have taken at least some
action to prepare in advance (like expanding supplier
partnerships, increasing technology use and building
inventory early).
z	More than 4 in 5 (83%) believe that online retailers
need an efficient supply chain to provide products in a
timely manner.
z	Nearly half (48%, down from last year at 61%) believe
that the state of the U.S. infrastructure is impacting their
company’s ability to get goods from one place to another.
However, there has been a significant decrease in those
very concerned (from 19% in 2015 to 9%).
z	Over 2 in 5 retailers (44%) are concerned about the
viability of their supply chain going forward, slightly down
from the half (50%) who said they were concerned in 2015.
Efficient Supply Chain Is Essential
Same Concerns and Planning Remain as Last Year
Large retailers are more worried about
the viability of their supply chain (67%
vs. 44%, respectively) and they are
more likely to feel that the state of U.S.
infrastructure (66% vs. 48%) will impact
their ability to get goods from one
place to another. Perhaps because of,
or in spite of, this more elevated
concern, they appear to be more
prepared and have taken more steps
to manage any unexpected changes
in their supply chain.
SUPPLY CHAIN CONCERNS
z	Nearly all retailers (94%, up from
90% in 2015) feel at least somewhat
prepared to deal with unexpected
changes in their supply chain, if they
were to arise. 36% say they are very
prepared.
Most retailers have done the following in
preparation for unexpected changes
EXPANDING
SUPPLIER
PARTNERSHIPS
57%down from 61%
BUILDING
INVENTORY
EARLY
57%up from 54%
INCREASING
USE OF
TECHNOLOGY
for logistic planning
55%down from 57%
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  11
INVESTMENT PRIORITIESTwo segments of the retail industry—middle market and large
businesses—were surveyed to provide a more comprehensive
view of the industry’s outlook. Due to the smaller sample size
of respondents from large retailers, caution should be used
when interpreting results. The data suggests there may be
some key directional differences between the two groups, in
particular that while middle market retailers predominantly
mirror the opinions of large retailers, they quite often feel
less strongly or express less confidence.
First and foremost, while most retailers articulate a fairly
optimistic view of what the future will hold, middle market
retailers are less likely to describe their financial condition
as “very” healthy (26% middle market vs. 42% large) and to
envision an increase in sales in the coming year (79% middle
market vs. 89% large). Large retailers are also much more
convinced that external factors (like the economy, gas/fuel
prices, energy costs; industry consolidation; and various
federal regulations) will have a positive impact on their
company. And while both groups anticipate a fairly successful
Holiday Season, these feelings are less widespread among the
middle market (82% middle market vs. 93% large).
Moreover, while middle market retailers offer a favorable
view of their online and mobile presence, it is not quite as
promising as it is for the large retailers. They are less confident
in their mobile aptitude, less likely to characterize their ability
as “expert” (13% middle market vs. 35% large) and three times
more likely to call themselves “intermediate” or “beginner”
(30% middle market vs. 11% large). They are less likely to say
their various channels work “very” well together (60% middle
market vs. 71% large); less likely to feel online shopping will
make a key difference during the holidays; and less likely
to foresee a boost from their Internet, mobile and catalog
channels over the next three years.
Differences by Size of Retailer
Middle Market Retailers Are Generally More Optimistic about the Industry;
but More Pessimistic about Their Own Growth
NOTE: Throughout this section, percentage point differences are cited that have
met or exceeded 10 percentage points. As noted, because the sample of large
retailers collected for the study is small, more research will need to be done to
confirm these hypotheses.
The middle market generally seems to be
placing much less priority on investing
in physical stores and less emphasis on
experience shopping, industry convergence,
and in ads.
75% of middle
market retailers
think mobile
apps have a
key competitive
advantage
(vs. 87% of large retailers)
and tend to employ a
different strategy to take
advantage of mobile
technology
44%
41%
18%
52%
SOCIAL MEDIA
TRADITIONAL
MARKETING
MIDDLE MARKET
INVESTING IN
LARGE MARKET
INVESTING IN
vs.
z	Large retailers are much more likely to
personally feel the strain of competition
from fast fashion (51% vs. 37%) and
pop-up retailers (78% vs. 60%).
Larger companies are far more likely
to feel that one or more key retailers
will fail in the coming years (81% vs.
70%) and that a brick-and-mortar-only
strategy cannot last (63% vs. 53%).
CIT Retail Outlook
© 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  12
Methodology
310 interviews (259 middle market, 51 large) were conducted
online from August 3 to August 26, 2016, averaging
approximately 18 minutes in length.
Qualified respondents were age 18+, employed full-time or self-
employed, a financial decision maker, working in the retail industry
with more than $5 million in revenue (middle market retailer:
revenue between $5 million and $2.9 billion; large retailer: revenue
$3 billion or more) and having one of the following titles:
z Owner
z Board Member
z Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
z Chief Operating Officer (COO)
z Chief Financial Officer (CFO)
Data for the middle market segment were weighted where
necessary to bring them in line with the population of interest
based on the 2015 CIT Topline by Harris Poll, for the following
variables: industry, title, functional role, decision-maker role,
revenue, company ownership structure, and location.
Other qualifying material included working in the following
functional roles: Finance, General management, Operations and
production, Procurement, Strategy and business development,
Supply-chain management, and Treasury.
Percentages were rounded to the nearest whole percent.
Differences in the sums of combined categories/answers are
due to rounding.
About Harris Poll
Over the last five decades, Harris Polls have become media
staples. With comprehensive experience and precise technique
in public opinion polling, along with a proven track record of
uncovering consumers’ motivations and behaviors, Harris Poll
has gained strong brand recognition around the world. Harris
Poll offers a diverse portfolio of proprietary client solutions to
transform relevant insights into actionable foresight for a wide
range of industries including health care, technology, public
affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance,
media, retail, restaurant and consumer packaged goods. Contact
us for more information: ConsumerInsightsNAInfo@nielsen.com.
ABOUT CIT
Founded in 1908, CIT (NYSE: CIT) is a
financial holding company with more than
$65 billion in assets. Its principal bank
subsidiary, CIT Bank, N.A., (Member FDIC,
Equal Housing Lender) has more than $30
billion of deposits and more than $40 billion
of assets. It provides financing, leasing
and advisory services principally to middle
market companies across more than 30
industries primarily in North America, and
equipment financing and leasing solutions
to the transportation sector. It also offers
products and services to consumers through
its Internet bank franchise and a network
of retail branches in Southern California,
operating as OneWest Bank, a division
of CIT Bank, N.A. cit.com
www.cit.com
To subscribe to the CIT View from the Middle
newsletter, please send an email to:
viewfromthemiddle@cit.com.
FOR PRESS INQUIRIES, PLEASE CONTACT
Matt Klein
Director, Media Relations
matt.klein@cit.com
FOR BUSINESS INQUIRIES, PLEASE CONTACT
Debbie Haeringer
Director, Content Marketing
debbie.haeringer@cit.com
z Chief Information Officer
z Chief Investment Officer
z Other C-level executive
z Sr. Vice President/Vice
President/Director
z Head of business unit/
Head of department

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CIT Retail Outlook

  • 1. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  1 KEY HEADLINES FROM THE RESEARCH z Retailers Give Promising Outlook for FY2017: Pervasive Optimism for the Web; More Static in the Store and HQ z Retailers Predict a Successful Holiday Season: Biggest Boost from Internet z The Competitive Landscape Continues to Shift: Priority Placed on Fast Fashion and Pop-Ups z Brick-and-Mortar Stores Are in a State of Flux: Already in Transition to a Different Role that Supports Online z Web Presence Is Now the Price of Entry in Retail: Omni-Channel Approach Working for the Most Part z Mobile and Social Offer Competitive Advantage: Even Incorporated into Hiring Goals and Practices z Consumer Confidence Still High, According to Retailers: Regulations Also Favored by Slight Majority z Change Is the Name of the Game: Sharpen Focus Even More on Customer Needs z Efficient Supply Chain Is Essential: Same Concerns and Planning Remain as Last Year z Differences by Size of Retailer: Middle Market Retailers Are Generally More Optimistic about the Industry; but More Pessimistic about Their Own Growth Despite challenging same store sales, middle market retailers are surprisingly bullish. Most retailers are hopeful that they will have a successful Holiday Season and will achieve an increase in total sales for FY16. They also have plans to continue that growth for the next three years and to increase hiring for next year, especially in the internet/ mobile category. Not unexpectedly, the retail landscape continues to transition to a more online-heavy and store-light model. A web presence is now considered essential. Most middle market retailers have already begun to generate an omni-channel approach, with their physical stores playing a more complementary role to their digital plans than they did in the past. Retailers express a clear strategic focus on their growing e-presence including further technology development, a change in their hiring priorities and incorporation of a mobile channel. The general feeling is that brand strength and popularity of prominent retailers is steadily eroding, and many may not exist three years from now. Middle market retailers have experienced continued challenges from alternative offerings like fast fashion and pop-up shops, forcing a more analytic review of their customers’ needs and a sharper focus on innovation and flexibility. Most helpful to retailers in the coming year will be the strength of consumer confidence, the availability of consumer and business financing, and certain regulations involving labor, manufacturing and information security. Generally, the sentiment expressed by middle market retailers parallels that of large retailers, but the middle market demonstrates a more cautious optimism about their present condition, the upcoming holidays and the near-term future. They are similarly more reserved in their hopefulness about mobile and online. But that said, large retailers tend to have a more critical view of the industry landscape including the likely demise of several prominent retailers and competitive pressure from alternative options, like fast fashion and pop-ups. In order to uncover these trends and challenges (as well as the general outlook) for the retail industry, Harris Poll, on behalf of CIT, a leader in financing and treasury management services to the retail sector, conducted an online survey from August 3 to 26, 2016. Respondents are financial decision makers in 259 U.S.-based middle market retailers (revenue between $5 million and $2.9 billion) and 51 U.S.-based large business retailers (revenue of $3 billion or more).
  • 2. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  2 For the most part, middle market retailers offer a confident and positive view of the current state of their business. Holding steady for the past two years, 4 in 5 describe their finances as healthy or very healthy—and most envision more sales growth in 2017. The progress is not seen as coming from each sales channel equally. Middle market retailers are far more optimistic about sales from their website and mobile offering than their store, catalog or phone channel (for which expectations have been pulled back significantly since last year). As an example, last year, two-thirds of retailers believed that their physical stores would see a sales lift over the coming three years. Today, there has been a big drop in optimism as only 2 in 5 feel that way. By contrast, at least 7 in 10 envision sales continuing to rise from website and mobile over the same near-term period. Middle market retailers also anticipate growth across a wide variety of employees cohorts, but again most commonly in the internet/mobile category, along with hourly staff. Only about one-quarter believe the number of executives working at their headquarters will rise. Notably the optimism regarding staff seems to be more cautious today. The expected growth in mobile/internet and in-store exempt employees is more limited than it was one year ago. Retailers Give Promising Outlook for FY2017 Pervasive Optimism for the Web; More Static in the Store and HQ VIEW ON SALES STAFF OUTLOOK IN 2017 Number of staff devoted to internet/mobile sales channels 2016: 54% vs. 2015: 62% Total number of hourly employees 2016: 52% vs. 2015: 54% Number of in-store exempt employees 2016: 40% vs. 2015: 51% z Looking forward to 2017, 48% expect that the total number of hours worked by hourly employees will increase, and 26% say the number of headquarters executives will increase. Less than half anticipate an increase from in-store sales (much less than the 65% last year) Believe they will see an increase in catalog/phone sales (compared to 40% in 2015) Though slightly down from last year, nearly 1 in 5 retail executives (17%, down from 22%) anticipate an increase in total sales of more than 10%. z Almost 4 in 5 (79%) anticipate an increase in total sales of 1% or more for fiscal year 2016, similar to previous years. Only 9% expect a decrease, whereas 13% expect sales to remain the same. 80% OF RETAILERS SAY... their overall financial condition is healthy or very healthy Similar to 2014 and 2015 after an increase from only 70% in 2013 SALES WILL INCREASE As seen last year, more than 7 in 10 retailers believe... FROM WEBSITE (75%) AND MOBILE (72%) THREE YEARS FROM NOW 42% 24% Though muted from last year, many retailers expect an increase in…
  • 3. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  3 The majority of middle market retailers offer a promising picture of what the holidays (from Thanksgiving to New Year’s) will look like this year. More than 1 in 5 (21%) expect an increase of more than 10% in sales this Holiday Season— almost no one today thinks sales will decline. In all areas, middle market retailers are optimistic that during the holidays, the number of hourly employees will increase as well as their hours worked. The number of other employees (like in-store exempt or headquarter executives) will also likely hold steady or rise. The price of fuel isn’t seen as having nearly the impact that it did last year. Rather, the biggest contributors to holiday sales are expected to be online shopping, in-store or online discounts and Black Friday promotions. In response to the perceived relevance of the internet, over 1 in 2 middle market retailers also believe they will need to dedicate even more staff to web/mobile channels (though expectations for staff growth are not as dramatic as a year ago, perhaps because they have already increased staff to the necessary level). Retailers Predict a Successful Holiday Season Biggest Boost from Internet DURING THE 2016 HOLIDAY SEASON z The price of fuel is not expected to have nearly as big of an impact as it did last year (32%, compared to 39% in 2015). 3 in 5 retailers anticipate total sales for the 2016 Holiday Season to increase by 6% (or more) over the previous season 60%expect an increase in 2016 Holiday Season sales 56%NUMBER OF HOURLY EMPLOYEES 54%STAFF DEVOTED TO INTERNET/MOBILE SALES 52%HOURS WORKED BY HOURLY EMPLOYEES 40%NUMBER OF IN-STORE EXEMPT EMPLOYEES 47% 44% BLACK FRIDAY PROMOTIONS IN-STORE OR ONLINE DISCOUNTS expect an expansion of expect an expansion of Most retailers expect to increase the… NEARLY HALF EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ONLINE SHOPPING to have the biggest incremental impact on holiday sales compared to only 1 in 3 retailers (33%) back in 2013. 49% ONLINE SHOPPING
  • 4. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  4 No longer do prominent and well-established retailers hold the top position in the retail world. At least, they are not seen as having the same cachet as they did in the past, and instead may be losing ground to alternative options like pop-up retailers and fast fashion stores. A slight majority of middle market retailers believe that fast-fashion and pop-up options present a rising challenge to middle market and large retailers. And, nearly 2 in 5 go further to say that these foreign fast fashion retailers have hurt their business and have hampered their ability to compete. More than 1 in 2 middle market retailers have already seen some erosion in the consumer appeal and overall brand value of the more prominent retailers (a slight increase in pessimism from last year). Seven in ten now believe that at least one prominent retailer will shut down in the next one to three years. More than half (51%) do not believe that offbrand or outlet stores are a good idea, instead potentially causing harm to a company’s image. Three-fourths of retail executives say they use sales tactics that focus on markdowns and bundle pricing. And most put forward these sales quite frequently (for over one-third, at least once a month or more). The Competitive Landscape Continues to Shift Priority Placed on Fast Fashion and Pop-Ups z Middle market and large retailers agree (53%) that fast fashion retailers (such as HM, Zara, Uniqlo, etc.) are taking consumers away from U.S. middle market retailers and pose a threat to other categories of goods. â Almost 2 in 5 (37%) say that foreign fast fashion retailers have affected their ability to compete, especially for online-only retailers (68%) more than omni-channel retailers. z Three in five (60%) believe that pop-up retailers are creating greater competition for larger, more established retailers. z More than 1 in 2 retailers (55%, up from 50% in 2015) feel that the consumer appeal and overall brand value of prominent retailers is on the decline. â However, this sentiment was much higher two years ago in 2014 (65%). z Seven in ten (70%, up from 66% last year) believe one or more prominent retailers will likely disappear in the next 1-3 years. z Over half (51%) believe that offbrand and outlet stores erode a brand’s value. THREE-QUARTERS OF RETAILERS (76%) USE SALES TACTICS THAT FOCUS ON OF RETAILERS OVER 3 IN 5 RETAILERS (63%) have sales multiple times per year but less than once per month, especially online-only retailers (75%) compared to omni-channel retailers (47%). have sales at least once a month, if not more often BUNDLE PRICING MARKDOWNS 44% 32% 36%
  • 5. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  5 Today, retail sales from physical stores still outperform, on average, those from website and mobile combined (46% to 41%, respectively). And, many believe that innovation (and creating a unique shopping experience) is a way to attract more customers to the brick-and-mortar channel. That said, over 1 in 2 middle market retailers believe that it will be impossible to survive in the future without an online presence. Already today, physical stores appear to be going through a transition. Almost 3 in 5 (though less than last year) are using their stores differently than they have in the past, and over 4 in 5 have adapted the role of their physical stores to be more closely aligned with their digital strategy. The majority feel that their stores are just the right size right now to manage the demand, but at the same time, many (more than one-third) admit they have certain stores that underperform and would like to shut them down. Nearly 3 in 5 retailers believe they are using physical stores differently than they were one year ago (56%, less than the 65% from 2015). z 82% feel they are using their physical stores in a way that complements their digital channels. Brick-and-Mortar Stores Are in a State of Flux Already in Transition to a Different Role that Supports Online SALE SOURCES More than one-third of retailers (35%) say they have too many stores in underperforming locations and would like to close them. z These underperforming stores are most likely characterized by an inconvenient location (56%), or being too close to (53%) or too far away from (52%) relevant competition. More than 4 in 5 (81%) feel that providing a unique shopping experience is an innovative way to attract new customers to brick- and-mortar stores. 82% Over 4 in 5 retailers say... their stores are the right size PHYSICAL STORES CATALOG/PHONE 13% WEBSITE MOBILE 46% On average, retailers say that their sales come from the following places… 26% 15%
  • 6. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  6 Middle market retailers are much more likely to say that their revenue is growing from website sales than from physical in-store sales. This gap is greater today than it was the previous year: 30 percentage points (75% from website vs. 45% in-store) in 2016, compared to 12 percentage points (71% vs. 59%) in 2015. So it is not surprising that having an online presence is the #1 strategic investment for 2016 (also in the top four are two other components of e-commerce: social media and digital marketing). Nearly all retailers believe that their omni-channel approach is working well right now. The channels are also supporting each other rather than competing; 3 in 5 even say very well. Furthermore, they use their online sales growth as the primary gauge. Technology is the biggest challenge in getting everything to work seamlessly, and by extension, it is also the most prominent part of the strategy going forward. Middle market retailers are less likely to feel struggles with the omni-approach this year, compared to one year ago. And they are also much more likely to see the advantages (than the disadvantages) of encouraging this inter-dependence, with incentives like free shipping and free returns even in the store. About half of retailers are also allowing pick-up of online orders and fulfilling online orders in the store to connect their channels together and ensure they work together well. z Even more than last year, the most popular strategic investments are: having an online presence (50%), followed by digital marketing (46%), social media (44%) and traditional marketing (41%). z 77% agree that consumers’ ability to comparison shop online has created a greater need for retailers to be transparent about their pricing. Web Presence Is Now the Price of Entry in Retail Omni-Channel Approach Working for the Most Part z Retailers are less likely to say revenue is growing from stores (45%, compared to 59% in 2015) than the website (75%, compared to 71%). â Expected growth from mobile is also high at 65%, while phone/catalog is low at 28%. â About 1 in 5 (22%) say the website is growing faster than other channels, and almost the same proportion (20%) feel that way about mobile. z The vast majority (91%) believe that all the channels they have made available to customers are working together at least somewhat well to enhance the customer experience. 60% say “very well.” â Almost 3 in 5 (56%, less than last year at 63%) believe that it has been challenging to implement an omni- channel strategy that provides a seamless experience to consumers. â The primary challenges in getting all channels to work together are: updating technology (50%), followed by training retail associates on using different channels (41%) and building data management systems (38%). â In order to connect their channels, the key strategies have been to: update technology (51%), fulfill online orders in physical stores (49%) and offer online orders with pick up in the store (47%). â The criteria to determine if their channels are working successfully together are: online sales growth (65%), and less so, mobile sales growth (49%) and physical store sales growth (47%). z Most retailers (71%, up from 61% last year) believe the benefits outweigh the risks, if only slightly, of offering free shipping, free returns or in-store returns to customers who shop on the website. The biggest investment priority for omni-channel retailers is… 73%ONLINE PRESENCE
  • 7. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  7 Most middle market retailers feel relatively confident in their knowledge of social media strategies, continuing a steady upward trend from 2013. And virtually all retail executives know that social media must be a key part of their strategic plan (i.e., no one today is ambivalent). About 3 in 5 have even changed their hiring practices to keep pace with their digital and social strategy. Revenue is also seen as growing from mobile, even more than it was last year. Mobile apps are viewed as offering a competitive advantage to retailers, and half have already begun to create apps themselves. Most retailers have taken clear steps to invest in mobile, like updating their website and increasing their email campaigns. They also expect to add staff to their internet/mobile sales channels. Nearly 7 in 10 understand that it is a tricky balance in providing a highly customized and optimized customer experience while simultaneously easing customers’ anxiety about how much personal information they own (though this concern is somewhat diminished from last year). Similar to last year, almost 7 in 10 middle market retailers consider themselves “advanced” or “expert” (67%) when it comes to social media strategies (68% in 2015 and 53% in 2014). And like last year, almost no one today is ambivalent (2%). z Not surprisingly, online-only retailers (29%) are nearly three times more likely to feel they are an expert than omni-channel retailers (11%). z Nearly 3 in 5 (58%, less than last year at 68%) have changed their hiring practices to keep up with their digital and social strategy. Mobile and Social Offer Competitive Advantage Even Incorporated into Hiring Goals and Practices NEW TECHNOLOGIES z The most common steps that retailers use to take advantage of mobile technology remain: creating mobile applications (51%, up from 43% in 2015); updating their website to meet consumer needs (50%, up from 45%); and increasing email campaigns (46%, down from 52%). 65% OF RETAILERS BELIEVE REVENUE IS GROWING FROM MOBILE UP FROM 57% LAST YEAR A majority (54%) expects an increase in the number of staff they have devoted to internet/mobile sales channels. Almost 7 in 10 (67%, a decline from last year at 75%) believe that with their mobile strategy, they are constantly balancing providing an optimal, customized consumer experience without alarming consumers about the amount of information they hold. z Omni-channel retailers (88%) are more likely to feel this way than those who are solely online (65%). Three-fourths of retail executives say that retailers with mobile apps have an advantage over those who do not. 75% 53% mobile app advantage OF OMNI-CHANNEL RETAILERS HAVE REBALANCED MARKETING DOLLARS away from traditional channels (print, radio, etc.) toward new technologies to take advantage of mobile technology, compared to only 18% of online retailers and 27% of brick-and-mortar retailers.
  • 8. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  8 A slight majority of middle market retailers identify several key external factors that they believe will give a positive boost to their business over the next year. Consumer confidence and availability of financing are both expected to offer a lift to business performance heading into 2017. Moreover, regulations involving labor, manufacturing and information security are expected to be most influential (in a good way) to about half of retailers. Consumer Confidence Still High, According to Retailers Regulations Also Favored by Slight Majority LABOR MANUFACTURING LAWS z The majority of retailers expect consumer confidence (63%) to have a positive impact on their business over the next twelve months, along with the availability of consumer (65%) and business (59%) credit/financing. MIDDLE MARKET RETAILERS VIEW The Marketplace Fairness Act MORE FAVORABLY THAN THEY DID ONE YEAR AGO... As in 2015, retailers see federal laws/ regulations involving labor (54%) and manufacturing (51%) as having the most positive impact on the growth of their business. z This is the same top two as last year, along with information security (51%). z Middle Market retailers are equally divided on the Marketplace Fairness Act. Half (50%, up from 46% in 2015) favor the act in order to level the playing field between remote sellers and local retailers. The other half (50%, down from 54% in 2015) oppose the act. SENTIMENT IS NOW EQUALLY DIVIDED more than omni-channel retailers (45% and 50%, respectively) LABOR LAWS MANUFACTURING LAWS 0NLINE-ONLY RETAILERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO CITE THE BENEFITS OF… 81% 73% Federal Laws/ Government Regulations WITH NEGATIVE IMPACT SALES TAXATION HEALTHCARE PAYROLL TAXATION MINIMUM WAGE 26% 23% 25% 21%
  • 9. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  9 The top trends in the retail industry still hold from last year, but in 2016 there appears to be an increased emphasis on standing out and being different. Today, middle market retailers see the most potential in both e-commerce and experience shopping. Moreover, being equipped with only traditional retail skills will not be sufficient in 2017; retail executives must also have a keen knowledge of analytics, technology and even engineering. And, they must actively consume and apply information about their customers’ needs and interests. In addition, there remain a few key challenges. Middle market retailers generally recognize that they need to demonstrate an effective plan to deal with cybersecurity risks and data breaches. Notably, over 7 in 10 agree that the current shift to chip-enabled credit and debit cards (EMV) provide protection for consumers. With changing trends in financial technology, 3 in 5 middle market retailers also mention that it can occasionally be a struggle to incorporate new forms of payment like Apple Pay and Google Wallet. Change Is the Name of the Game Sharpen Focus Even More on Customer Needs CHANGES TO BUSINESS z Approximately 4 in 5 (79%) say their business has an effective plan to deal with risks in cyber security and data breaches at point of sale, if these issues were to arise. z About three-quarters (72%) feel that the current shift to chip-enabled credit and debit cards (EMV) provides protection for consumers. z Around 3 in 5 (61%) feel that in light of the current economic climate, their company has decided to move business functions like design, warehousing, distributions and logistics in-house to improve profit margins. z Similar to previous years, a slight majority of retailers (52%, down from 54% in 2015), agree that U.S. consumers care more than ever about buying products that are exclusively “Made in America.” Almost three-fifths of retail executives SAY IT IS CHALLENGING TO INCORPORATE NEW FORMS OF PAYMENT59% Three-quarters (75%, down from 80% last year) believe that executives in the retail industry today need to be well versed in areas like analytics, technology and engineering in addition to having traditional retail skills. z More than 4 in 5 (84%) believe that now more than ever, it is important for retailers to use analytics and data to better understand who consumers are and how they want to engage with retailers. The STRATEGIES that are seen as having the most potential for growth for the retail industry as a whole are: 59% e-commerce 51% experience shopping
  • 10. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  10 There is fairly widespread agreement that an efficient supply chain is crucial to online retailers. But over 2 in 5 middle market retailers express some concerns about their supply chain’s viability and the impact of U.S. infrastructure (though this issue has dissipated somewhat from last year). Most middle market retailers feel somewhat—but not overwhelmingly­—prepared to deal with unexpected changes to their supply chain and have taken at least some action to prepare in advance (like expanding supplier partnerships, increasing technology use and building inventory early). z More than 4 in 5 (83%) believe that online retailers need an efficient supply chain to provide products in a timely manner. z Nearly half (48%, down from last year at 61%) believe that the state of the U.S. infrastructure is impacting their company’s ability to get goods from one place to another. However, there has been a significant decrease in those very concerned (from 19% in 2015 to 9%). z Over 2 in 5 retailers (44%) are concerned about the viability of their supply chain going forward, slightly down from the half (50%) who said they were concerned in 2015. Efficient Supply Chain Is Essential Same Concerns and Planning Remain as Last Year Large retailers are more worried about the viability of their supply chain (67% vs. 44%, respectively) and they are more likely to feel that the state of U.S. infrastructure (66% vs. 48%) will impact their ability to get goods from one place to another. Perhaps because of, or in spite of, this more elevated concern, they appear to be more prepared and have taken more steps to manage any unexpected changes in their supply chain. SUPPLY CHAIN CONCERNS z Nearly all retailers (94%, up from 90% in 2015) feel at least somewhat prepared to deal with unexpected changes in their supply chain, if they were to arise. 36% say they are very prepared. Most retailers have done the following in preparation for unexpected changes EXPANDING SUPPLIER PARTNERSHIPS 57%down from 61% BUILDING INVENTORY EARLY 57%up from 54% INCREASING USE OF TECHNOLOGY for logistic planning 55%down from 57%
  • 11. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  11 INVESTMENT PRIORITIESTwo segments of the retail industry—middle market and large businesses—were surveyed to provide a more comprehensive view of the industry’s outlook. Due to the smaller sample size of respondents from large retailers, caution should be used when interpreting results. The data suggests there may be some key directional differences between the two groups, in particular that while middle market retailers predominantly mirror the opinions of large retailers, they quite often feel less strongly or express less confidence. First and foremost, while most retailers articulate a fairly optimistic view of what the future will hold, middle market retailers are less likely to describe their financial condition as “very” healthy (26% middle market vs. 42% large) and to envision an increase in sales in the coming year (79% middle market vs. 89% large). Large retailers are also much more convinced that external factors (like the economy, gas/fuel prices, energy costs; industry consolidation; and various federal regulations) will have a positive impact on their company. And while both groups anticipate a fairly successful Holiday Season, these feelings are less widespread among the middle market (82% middle market vs. 93% large). Moreover, while middle market retailers offer a favorable view of their online and mobile presence, it is not quite as promising as it is for the large retailers. They are less confident in their mobile aptitude, less likely to characterize their ability as “expert” (13% middle market vs. 35% large) and three times more likely to call themselves “intermediate” or “beginner” (30% middle market vs. 11% large). They are less likely to say their various channels work “very” well together (60% middle market vs. 71% large); less likely to feel online shopping will make a key difference during the holidays; and less likely to foresee a boost from their Internet, mobile and catalog channels over the next three years. Differences by Size of Retailer Middle Market Retailers Are Generally More Optimistic about the Industry; but More Pessimistic about Their Own Growth NOTE: Throughout this section, percentage point differences are cited that have met or exceeded 10 percentage points. As noted, because the sample of large retailers collected for the study is small, more research will need to be done to confirm these hypotheses. The middle market generally seems to be placing much less priority on investing in physical stores and less emphasis on experience shopping, industry convergence, and in ads. 75% of middle market retailers think mobile apps have a key competitive advantage (vs. 87% of large retailers) and tend to employ a different strategy to take advantage of mobile technology 44% 41% 18% 52% SOCIAL MEDIA TRADITIONAL MARKETING MIDDLE MARKET INVESTING IN LARGE MARKET INVESTING IN vs. z Large retailers are much more likely to personally feel the strain of competition from fast fashion (51% vs. 37%) and pop-up retailers (78% vs. 60%). Larger companies are far more likely to feel that one or more key retailers will fail in the coming years (81% vs. 70%) and that a brick-and-mortar-only strategy cannot last (63% vs. 53%).
  • 12. CIT Retail Outlook © 2016 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc.  12 Methodology 310 interviews (259 middle market, 51 large) were conducted online from August 3 to August 26, 2016, averaging approximately 18 minutes in length. Qualified respondents were age 18+, employed full-time or self- employed, a financial decision maker, working in the retail industry with more than $5 million in revenue (middle market retailer: revenue between $5 million and $2.9 billion; large retailer: revenue $3 billion or more) and having one of the following titles: z Owner z Board Member z Chief Executive Officer (CEO) z Chief Operating Officer (COO) z Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Data for the middle market segment were weighted where necessary to bring them in line with the population of interest based on the 2015 CIT Topline by Harris Poll, for the following variables: industry, title, functional role, decision-maker role, revenue, company ownership structure, and location. Other qualifying material included working in the following functional roles: Finance, General management, Operations and production, Procurement, Strategy and business development, Supply-chain management, and Treasury. Percentages were rounded to the nearest whole percent. Differences in the sums of combined categories/answers are due to rounding. About Harris Poll Over the last five decades, Harris Polls have become media staples. With comprehensive experience and precise technique in public opinion polling, along with a proven track record of uncovering consumers’ motivations and behaviors, Harris Poll has gained strong brand recognition around the world. Harris Poll offers a diverse portfolio of proprietary client solutions to transform relevant insights into actionable foresight for a wide range of industries including health care, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant and consumer packaged goods. Contact us for more information: ConsumerInsightsNAInfo@nielsen.com. ABOUT CIT Founded in 1908, CIT (NYSE: CIT) is a financial holding company with more than $65 billion in assets. Its principal bank subsidiary, CIT Bank, N.A., (Member FDIC, Equal Housing Lender) has more than $30 billion of deposits and more than $40 billion of assets. It provides financing, leasing and advisory services principally to middle market companies across more than 30 industries primarily in North America, and equipment financing and leasing solutions to the transportation sector. It also offers products and services to consumers through its Internet bank franchise and a network of retail branches in Southern California, operating as OneWest Bank, a division of CIT Bank, N.A. cit.com www.cit.com To subscribe to the CIT View from the Middle newsletter, please send an email to: viewfromthemiddle@cit.com. FOR PRESS INQUIRIES, PLEASE CONTACT Matt Klein Director, Media Relations matt.klein@cit.com FOR BUSINESS INQUIRIES, PLEASE CONTACT Debbie Haeringer Director, Content Marketing debbie.haeringer@cit.com z Chief Information Officer z Chief Investment Officer z Other C-level executive z Sr. Vice President/Vice President/Director z Head of business unit/ Head of department