3. What is Vision?

4. What is Vision?

5. The Evolving American
Vision

7. The Emerging American
Vision

8. People Turning 65 in Year
Thousands
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1996-2025
2010
2011
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
People Turning 65 Annually
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

10. Growth in Households without Kids
Household Type Share
With Children 12%
Without Children 88%
Single-Person 34%
Source: Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnsworth
Riche, How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will
Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003).

11. Unemployment in Baton
Rouge
Aug 2009
9.6
%
8.1
%
Source: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12. Approaching labor shortages
2.0
Annual change in US working age population
Average annual job creation since WWII
1.5
(in millions)
1.0
0.5
0.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: TIP Strategies; US Bureau Labor Statistics; US Census Bureau

13. • In the Future, digital access will be synonymous with
achievement
A Digital Economy

14. Oil prices will become
increasingly volatile

15. The future will not be like the past, nor the present

16. Demographic Shifts
• Growth concentrated in 55+ ages and 15-34 – Different
housing demand
• These shifts will result in more multi family and mixed use
growth.

17. Many Communities will compete to be
great places to live & work
Open Spaces and Parks

18. Trends
Strong forces will put a premium on:
1. Energy efficient, sustainable communities
2. Places Attractive to Workforce
3. Effective Transportation
4. Great Livability
5. More Options for Travel, Housing
Shopping, and Work

19. Zoning Source:
City of Baton Rouge –
Parish of East Baton Rouge
Geographic Information Systems

20. Buildable Lands Source:
City of Baton Rouge –
Parish of East Baton Rouge
Geographic Information Systems

21. Source:
FEMA (Federal
Emergency Management Agency)

22. Source:
USGS
(US Geological Survey)

23. Buildout with no Environmental
Constraints
Households Increase = 71,853
Employment Increase = 319,452

24. Buildout with Floodplains &
Wetlands Constrained
Households Increase = 43,888
Employment Increase = 107,386

25. Economic trends and forecasts

26. Income in Baton Rouge
•East Baton Rouge
households are wealthier
than the State, though
slightly less prosperous
than the entire Baton
Rouge MSA.
Source: Claritas Inc.

27. Income by Race
Source: Claritas Inc.

28. Education by Race
Source: U.S. American Community Survey 2008

29. Historic Employment Growth:
Pre-2000
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission

30. Historic employment growth 2001-
2008
Arts and entertain
Manufacturing
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission, Bureau of Labor Statistics

31. Employment forecast 2016
(regional)
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission

32. Employment share / region
• 63-65% region’s employment is in East
Baton Rouge Parish
• The Parish accounts for half the new jobs
in the region
Number of Jobs Growth
2001 2008 01-08
Louisiana 1,864,538 1,885,531 20,993
Regional Labor Market 377,958 417,973 40,015
Percent of State 20% 22%
East Baton Rouge 245,176 264,262 19,086
Percent of Region 65% 63%
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission

33. Crime Rate
18,000
16,000 United States
Denver
14,000
East Baton Rouge
12,000 EBR/BR Combined
10,000 Fort Worth
Portland
8,000 Houston
6,000 New Orleans
Austin
4,000 Baton Rouge
2,000 Oakland
Atlanta
0
1st Qtr

34. Population Forecast (2030)
•The population of East
Baton Rouge Parish is
projected to decline by
0.14% annually between
2010 and 2030.
•The population of the
Baton Rouge MSA is
projected to grow at nearly
1% per year over the same
time period.
Source: State of Louisiana Population Projections, Medium Forecast

35. Historic population growth
•East Baton Rouge Parish
and Louisiana grew more
slowly than the U.S., even
before Katrina.
•The state experienced a
population decline of 6%
(250,000 people) in the
year following Katrina.
•The Baton Rouge area, on
the other hand, grew by
nearly 5% (19,000 people)
in the year following
Katrina.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

36. Cities that have grown since 2000
2000 2008 Change
Austin 656,562 746,835 14%
Boise 185,787 203,818 10%
Oklahoma City 506,132 544,157 8%
Denver 554,636 584,563 5%
Source: US Census Bureau; 2006-08 ACS estimates

37. Cities that have declined
2000 2008 Change
Detroit 951,270 808,398 -15%
Cincinnati 331,285 299,577 -10%
Buffalo 292,648 259,143 -11%
Kansas City 441,545 435,825 -1%
Des Moines 198,682 197,912 0%
Source: US Census Bureau; 2006-08 ACS estimates

39. Traditional Planning Approach
• Decide – through analysis and research
• Educate – the public about the solution
• Announce – the plan
• Defend – the plan

40. Traditional Planning Approach
• D
• E
• A
• D

41. Improved Process
VALUES (What do people want?)
VISION (How will our City provide it?)
STRATEGY (How do we implement?)
PLAN
FUND
BUILD

42. Community Workshops
1
2
3

43. Two Scales – Parish and
Neighborhood
Parish
Neighborhood

44. Workshop Game Pieces
or “Chips”

46. What happens after the workshop?
Each table’s
plan is
analyzed…
….and all notes and
comments are recorded

47. GIS Analysis
Each map was
photographed,
digitized, and
entered into
GIS

48. All Chips Placed
University
of Tulsa Zoo Downtown
Airport Urban
Main Street
Transit Development
I-244 Village
Business Park
Downtown Commercial Center
Strip Center
Light Industrial
Refineries Urban Neighborhood
Small Lot Subdivision
Residential Subdivision
Eastland Mall
Area
Large Lot Subdivision
41st and Memorial
Peoria
Skelly Drive

49. Scenario
Choices
Broad Outreach

50. Scenario Options
A B
C D

51. Scenarios are Crash Test Dummies

52. Scenario C
Shown with the
transportation network and
existing surrounding plans
Scenario C

54. Modeling the Scenarios
Owner Renter Year 2000
350,000
300,000 43%
250,000 57%
200,000
150,000
Vision 2030
100,000
50,000
48%
- 52%
SF Det SF Att MF SF Det SF Att MF
Year 2000 Vision 2030
Market Constraints Sustainability
Development Program Urban Design
Commercial Demand
Housing Needs
Land Use Scenario
Tipping Point
Development Transportation Analysis
Roadway Impact
Ridership

55. Prototype Buildings

56. Prototype Buildings
Original Standards New Standards
Prototypes Prototypes
Apartment Cottage Home
Single Family Home 5-8K Lot Townhome
Single Family Home 8-15K Lot Live / Work
Neighborhood Grocery (1 Story)
Business Park Neighborhood Retail (1 Story)
Mid-Rise Business Park Mixed Use Apartments & Retail (2 Story)
Retail Mall Mixed Use Retail & Office (2 Story)
Strip Commercial Mixed Use Retail & Office (3 Story)
Heavy Industrial Mixed Use Residential & Retail (4 Story)
Light Industrial High Density Condo or Apartments (5 Story)
Office Retail (3 Story)
Office Retail (5 Story)
Office Retail (10 Story)

57. Financial Analysis and
Modeling

58. Vetting the Prototypes
Testing ideas in real
world situations
Site size:
360,000 Square Feet

59. Big-Box Retail Rehabilitation

60. How the Scenarios Compare

61. Daily Transit Ridership
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
A B C D
a rio a rio a rio rio
en en en e na
Sc Sc Sc Sc

62. Housing Match (to income and
preference)
250,000
Balanced
200,000 Housing Index
Score
150,000
100,000 80
50,000
0
. . s. s. ily
es es Re Re
e FR
il/R il/R hom am tS
ta ta ory ory wn le
F
eL
o
Re Re -St - St To ng rg
MU MU
8 3 ry Si La
to ry to ry Sto t ory
2- 2-S
8-S 3-S
Scenario B (Units) SV Proportional Profile (Units)

63. Economy
Scenario has the best sales tax performance of all
Additional City Sales Tax Revenue
$50,000,000
$40,000,000
$30,000,000
$20,000,000
$10,000,000
$0
Trend Workshop Scenario C Scenario D Scenario T

64. Scorecard

66. Comprehensive Plan Design
Four Components
• Vision
• Policy Plan
• Implementation Plan
• Monitoring System
66

67. 1st Component
The Vision
Capturing the City -Parish’s
dreams:
• Core Values derived from
broad-based public input
• Key Initiatives to realize the
Vision
• Vision Illustration based on a
palette of building blocks or
development patterns
67

68. 2nd Component
The Policy Document
• Eleven Elements linked that establish the policy
foundation for achieving the Vision:
– Future Land Use
– Transportation Element
– Economy
– Infrastructure and Capital Improvements Plan
– Conservation and Environmental Resources
– Recreation and Open Space
– Housing
– Public Services and Facilities/Buildings
– Urban Design, Development, and Redevelopment
– Health and Human Services
– Natural Hazards
• Updated on 5 to 10 year cycle
68

69. Land Use Element
• Establishes basis for zoning capacity to
achieve growth targets
• Balances and integrates land uses with
transportation systems to enable
sustainable growth
• Institutes a framework for ongoing,
small area planning to refine and
implement the Vision
69

70. Urban Design Element
• Establishes urban design policies tied to Vision building blocks
– Encourages architecture that responds to the surrounding community
in context and scale
70

71. Housing Element
Recognizes EBR’s urban future
– Encourages new types of ownership
opportunities for non-traditional home buyers
– Encourages housing supply to meet needs
across the income spectrum for future
generations
– Creates housing conditions to attract middle
income families to the Southern Sector
71

72. Economic Element
Establishes policies that
advance economic goals
– Fosters expansion and retention of
business and industry
– Informs land use element to ensure
it provides the right zoning for the
right development in the right
places
72

73. A strong Parks, Open Space
and Environmental element

74. Transportation Element
• Establishes fundamental linkage
land use and transportation
• Establishes Context Sensitive
Design (CSD) standards for streets
• Identifies key projects
74

75. Land Use & Transportation
Connection

76. Land Use & Transportation
Connection

77. Land Use & Transportation
Connection

78. Matching Street Design to Land Use
One size does not fit all
Streets should respond to the land uses around them

79. Transit Options

80. Current Usage of Transit

81. 3rd Component
The Implementation Plan

82. Implementation
Plans

83. Upcoming Events
• 2010
• January 26, 27 (kick-off Event)
• March 2-4th (Parish Wide workshops)
• April 6th-8th (Neighborhood workshops)
• May 18th-20th
• Summarize workshop results
• June 22nd-24th
• Presentation of scenarios and initial strategic issues

84. www.futurebr.com