25 November 2020. DevCo Infopoint. 85 researchers spanning 25 countries worked intensely for the past three years to identify the most promising solutions to end hunger sustainably, with a focus on the role of donors. Their efforts, which combined artificial intelligence, state-of-the-art modelling, and a strong partnership with Nature Research, was released on October 13, as part of a series of events, hosted by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), and a call to action from the research community.

2. New research
Sustainable Solutions to End
Hunger
http://ceres2030.or
g

3. Empowering the vulnerable in a
sustainable way,
by the numbers

4. Who should be targeted?Why do we need extra
money?
What to do with the
money?
How did we get these
numbers?
Where to prioritize
spending?
When should we be
spending?
Domestic
Resources, 19
billions, 58%
External
Resources, 14
billions, 42%
In addition of national efforts,
We need to mobilize
Of external public or
philanthropic resources
14more, per year
B$

5. We need to do many things, but let’s be
organized
ON THE
FARM
Interventions provided
directly to farmers,
including farm inputs,
R&D, improved livestock
feed, and irrigation
infrastructure.
EMPOWER
THE
EXCLUDED
Interventions related to social
protection, institutions such as
farmers' organizations, and
education through vocational
training.
FOOD ON THE
MOVE
Interventions to reduce post-
harvest losses, including storage,
to improve returns from sales, and
to support the mix of services
provided by SMEs, such as
cooperatives, traders, and
processors.

6. Population affected by hunger in 2018 and 2030Who? The undernourished and the poor small-scale
producers
Size of the bubble:
Farmers in extreme
poverty
World
Africa, South of Sahara
663 million
Undernourish
ed
431 million
Extremely
Poor
371 million
Undernourish
ed
369 million
Extremely
Poor
Why? Because the world will improve, but not for everyone

7. ?
SDG
2.1
SDG
2.3
SDG
2.4
How did we get these numbers? A sophisticated model

8. What should we do with the money? A portfolio of interventions
14interventions
3bn
2bn
9bn

9. When should we be spending? Invest without delay
The funding gap over time and by category of intervention
X2
Food on the Move
On the Farm
Empower the Excluded
ODA (Actual)
ODA (Target)
On the Farm
Empower the
Excluded

10. Priority countries for donor investment based on their dependency on external resources until 2030
Where should we prioritize spending? A Focus on Africa
High Priority Medium Priority Low Priority On Target Not Included in Assessment

11. An Africa focus will involve a specific policy
mix
ODA (Actual)
Empower the Excluded
On the Farm
Food on the Move

12. EC portfolio is well aligned but address
different objectives
21% 28%
44% 37%
64%
39%
42%
41%
14%
33%
14% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ceres2030: Additional
resources
Current EC Current Member States Current EC + MS
ODA Pattern
A. Enabling Inclusion B. On Farm C. On the Move

13. Additional resources should prioritize
Africa
67%
54% 47% 50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ceres2030: additional
resources
Current EC Current Member States Current EC + MS
ODA pattern
Africa Rest of the World

14. From Global Knowledge to
Evidence For
Action

15. Evidence is built on
thousands of small
observations over
time. The methods
help us facilitate
teamwork & guide
evaluation
Evidence

16. A special collection with Nature Research
Journals
PARTNERSHI
P AND
DISSEMINATI
ON
CONTEXT ON THE
FARM
FOOD ON
THE
MOVE
EMPOWER
THE
EXCLUDED
Feed interventions
and livelihoods of
small-scale livestock
keepers
Research funding for
small-scale farmers
in water scarce
regions
Incentives for adoption
of sustainable
agricultural practices
and their outcomes
Adoption of climate-
resilient crops by small-
scale producers in low-
and middle-income
countries
Employment outcomes
from youth skills training
programes in agriculture
in low- and middle-
income countries
The contributions of
farmers’ organizations
to smallholder
agriculture
Market links between
value chain actors
and small-scale
producers in
developing regions
Interventions for crop
postharvest loss
reduction in sub-
Saharan Africa and
South Asia
Ending hunger:
science must stop
neglecting smallholder
farmers
Feast and famine in
agricultural research
Evidence synthesis for
sustainability
Shedding light on the
evidence blind spots
confounding the multiple
objectives of SDG 2
Accelerating evidence-
informed decision-making
for the Sustainable
Development Goals using
machine learning
The collection has
been published
open access with
Nature Research

17. A new generation committed to ending
hunger through evidence-informed
decisions
Dr. Maricelis
Acevedo
Climate
resilient crops
Dr. Livia
Bizikova
Farmers
organizations
Dr. Isabelle
Baltenweck
Livestock feed
interventions
Dr. Tanya
Stathers
Post harvest
loss
Dr. Eugenie
Maiga
Youth
employment
Dr. Vincent
Ricciardi
Water
scarcity
Dr. Valeria
Piñeiro
Policy
incentives for
sustainable
practices
Dr. Leslie
Lipper
Understandin
g tradeoffs for
SDG2
Jaron
Porciello
Synthesis and
AI
Dr. David
Laborde
Debucquet
Economic
modeling
Carin
Smaller
Policy
relevancy
Dr. Saweda
Liverpool-
Tasie
Market links for
farmers

18. Joined by 84
researchers from
25 countries

19. Methods
Example inclusion criteria from Acevedo et al (2020) on
Climate Resilient Crops
1. Study focus includes population of small-scale producers
2. Study is published between 1990- start of search (1990 is
when first IPCC intergovernmental
panel on climate change met; climate change was first
described).
3. Original research (qualitative and quantitative reports)
and/or review of existing
research including gray literature
4. Explicit focus or clear relevance on climate change
resiliency or climate change
adaptation (see definition)
5. Explicit focus on crops, varieties, seed, planting materials
or germplasm
6. Study mentions factors for adoption (see definition)
7. Study area or focus includes target populations in lower
and middle-income countries
(See World bank list)

20. Dataset
80.093
6909
1746
29.381
1203
226
0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000
Screening
Full Text
Data
Extraction
DATA ASSESSMENT IN 3
PHASES
Grey Literature Science Literature

21. A machine-learning model promoted
inclusivity
& sped up the process
Our model
evaluated
more than
500,000
articles
Researchers
evaluated more
than 100,000
articles
Researchers
evaluated 2,000
articles across 8
topics

22. Key message: We need to change our
approach to research & data collection
Papers supporting Farmers and interventions
Scant evidence (2% of our global
assessment) targets farmers and
interventions
Concerning lack of high-quality
data about both farmers and
interventions
Persistent gaps in
gender and costs of
interventions
Limited data about gender
and the costs of
interventionsPapers supporting Gender Costs

23. Key Recommendations & Findings

24. http://ceres2030.or
g
8
evidence
synthese
s
14modellable
interventions
10recommendati
ons
Ceres2030 collection
Sustainable Solutions to End
Hunger

25. Recommendations
Extension
services
with R&D,
particularly
for women
Sustainable
practices
must be
economical
ly viable.
Support
adoption of
climate-
resilient
crops.
Increase
research
on
water-
scarce
regions.
Improve
the quantity
and quality
of livestock
feed.
Enable
participatio
n in
farmers’
organizatio
ns.
Offer
vocational
training in
multiple
skills.
Scale up
social
protection
programs.
Expand PHL
focus to more
links in the
value chain,
and more
food crops.
Support
SMEs
in the value
chain.
10

26. Photo by CIAT
FINDINGS FROM NATURE RESEARCHMODEL INTERVENTIONS
 Extension
services
The most important
determinants of
adoption of climate-
resilient crops were the
availability and
effectiveness of
extension services.
Recommendations
ON THE FARM
RECOMMENDATIONS
Investment in extension
services, particularly for
women, must accompany
research and
development (R&D)
programs.

27. FINDINGS FROM NATURE RESEARCHMODEL INTERVENTIONS
 Capital endowment
 Extension services
 Improved forage
subsidy
 Production subsidy
 R&D National
Agricultural Systems
(NARS) & CGIAR
Obvious and useful
options to improve the
quantity and quality
feed are being
overlooked, such as
better support for the
use of crop residues.
Recommendations
ON THE FARM
Photo by CIAT
RECOMMENDATIONS
Improve the quantity
and quality of livestock
feed, especially for
small and medium-
scale commercial
farms.

28. FINDINGS FROM NATURE
RESEARCH
MODEL INTERVENTIONS
 Rural
infrastructure
(roads)
 Storage (post-
harvest losses)
SMEs are
successfully serving
farmers in low and
middle- income
countries, particularly
in Africa, and are
correlated with
technology adoption
and higher
productivity.
Recommendations
FOOD ON THE MOVE
Photo by CIAT
RECOMMENDATIONS
Invest in the
infrastructure,
regulations, services
and technical
assistance needed to
support SMEs
in the value chain.

29. FINDINGS FROM NATURE
RESEARCH
MODEL INTERVENTIONS
 Currently no
modellable
intervention
Membership in a
farmers’ organization
was associated with
positive effects on
income in 57% of the
cases reviewed.
Recommendations
EMPOWER THE EXCLUDED
Photo by CIAT
RECOMMENDATIONS
Enable participation in
farmers’ organizations.

30. A wake-up call!
The role of minimal access to capital
Human capital (education & training)
Knowledge capital (R&D)
Social capital (networks and farmer’s
organisations)
Financial capital (finance and credit)
…while protecting natural capital

31. Implications for
partnerships
• Portfolio of interventions = portfolio of actions across donor
community + deeper cooperation and coordination
• No free lunch: co-funding rule = mobilization of domestic &
external resources (need strong, diverse + innovative
partnerships)
• Policy-relevant research: The global value chain of knowledge

32. A new deal
of
is possible and
will be a game-
changer
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Undernourished (mio people) Small-Scale food producers in
extreme poverty
Potential Agricultural Emissions
(mio CO2eq)
MillionPeople*,or100,000tonCO2eq
Without additional spendings With additional spendings
490
million out
of
Hunger
160
million
farmers*
out of
Povert
y
Under
Carbon
Neutrali
ty

33. Thank you