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Global developments in dairy
                      - Implications for the UK dairy value chain



                            Mark Voorbergen

                            Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory
London 27 June 2011         Rabobank International
Contents




    Section 1:   Global dairy market developments

    Section 2:   Considerations for the UK dairy chain
Global demand growth is not driven by the
Western world

                      • World market returns to an annual
                        growth rate of 2.5%

                      • Mostly driven by demand growth in
                        net importing regions

                      • Growth in the Western world is
                        mainly about value growth:
                         – Product innovations targeting
                             health and wellness
                         –   Convenience, snacking




3
Supply security has become an issue
• In 2010, China became the nr 1 importer of dairy in the world.
  Majority of imports originate from New Zealand. Supply
  concentration is a risk

• Large dairy buyers are changing their sourcing strategies (value
  chain investments, jv’s with suppliers, less spot market buying)

• Entire value chain is looking for stable long term pricing structures




4
Returns on the global market are becoming
more appealing


    Global market moves to higher trading range                          Traditional price premium for EU and US milk is
                                                                         declining



                                                                         0.40


                                                                         0.30




                                                  USD/litre equivalent
                                                                         0.20


                                                                         0.10


                                                                         0.00


                                                                         -0.10


                                                                         -0.20

                                                                                       Premium for US milk over NZ milk

                                                                                       Premium for EU milk over NZ milk



5
Market has become very volatile
• International prices pushed back to extreme highs in 2011
• Supply issues created the first spike in 2007/08
• The 2011 price developments are mainly caused by very strong import demand
Non dairy players creeping in




                      London

                                 Utrecht

              New York
                                                              Shanghai
                                           New Delhi


     Mexico                                 Mumbai
     City
                                               Singapore




                         Sao Paulo
                                                                         Sydney
                                                           Melbourne
              Buenos Aires

                                                                       Christchurch
Non dairy players creeping in
What’s driving new entrants?


                • Dairy growth potential
Pull            • Nature of growth: health, convenience


                • Health trends/risks of current product portfolios
Push            • Rising retail power
                • Anti-trust limitations

Synergies /     • Processing, packaging, distribution
                • Overlap with juices, functional foods
Synchronicity   • Desire to expand in developing markets
Contents




    Section 1:   Global dairy market developments

    Section 2:   Considerations for the UK dairy chain
Strategic implications for the UK dairy chain

• Revenues on the global market are increasingly interesting, but none of the UK
  processors seems positioned to benefit directly

• Convergence with European/global prices is increasing
    o Removal of the quota system in 2015 might cause a stronger push of products into the
      UK market
    o Reduced importance of liquid milk as the primary milk price driver

• Milk prices generally benefit from a milk deficit situation, but in the UK they don’t

• UK dairy sector lacks a dominant multi product multinational co-op that is
  capable of absorbing the impacts of volatility, or even benefit from it

• UK is seen as an attractive target market for new entrants, for domestic market
  reasons as well as for export ambitions

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Mark Voorbergen presentation

  • 1. Global developments in dairy - Implications for the UK dairy value chain Mark Voorbergen Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory London 27 June 2011 Rabobank International
  • 2. Contents Section 1: Global dairy market developments Section 2: Considerations for the UK dairy chain
  • 3. Global demand growth is not driven by the Western world • World market returns to an annual growth rate of 2.5% • Mostly driven by demand growth in net importing regions • Growth in the Western world is mainly about value growth: – Product innovations targeting health and wellness – Convenience, snacking 3
  • 4. Supply security has become an issue • In 2010, China became the nr 1 importer of dairy in the world. Majority of imports originate from New Zealand. Supply concentration is a risk • Large dairy buyers are changing their sourcing strategies (value chain investments, jv’s with suppliers, less spot market buying) • Entire value chain is looking for stable long term pricing structures 4
  • 5. Returns on the global market are becoming more appealing Global market moves to higher trading range Traditional price premium for EU and US milk is declining 0.40 0.30 USD/litre equivalent 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 Premium for US milk over NZ milk Premium for EU milk over NZ milk 5
  • 6. Market has become very volatile • International prices pushed back to extreme highs in 2011 • Supply issues created the first spike in 2007/08 • The 2011 price developments are mainly caused by very strong import demand
  • 7. Non dairy players creeping in London Utrecht New York Shanghai New Delhi Mexico Mumbai City Singapore Sao Paulo Sydney Melbourne Buenos Aires Christchurch
  • 8. Non dairy players creeping in
  • 9. What’s driving new entrants? • Dairy growth potential Pull • Nature of growth: health, convenience • Health trends/risks of current product portfolios Push • Rising retail power • Anti-trust limitations Synergies / • Processing, packaging, distribution • Overlap with juices, functional foods Synchronicity • Desire to expand in developing markets
  • 10. Contents Section 1: Global dairy market developments Section 2: Considerations for the UK dairy chain
  • 11. Strategic implications for the UK dairy chain • Revenues on the global market are increasingly interesting, but none of the UK processors seems positioned to benefit directly • Convergence with European/global prices is increasing o Removal of the quota system in 2015 might cause a stronger push of products into the UK market o Reduced importance of liquid milk as the primary milk price driver • Milk prices generally benefit from a milk deficit situation, but in the UK they don’t • UK dairy sector lacks a dominant multi product multinational co-op that is capable of absorbing the impacts of volatility, or even benefit from it • UK is seen as an attractive target market for new entrants, for domestic market reasons as well as for export ambitions