Does the climate change because solar and cosmic rays activities are changing?

1. Cosmic - Solar
beyond the IPCC consensus
Francis Massen
http://meteo.lcd.lu
1

2. Remember:
1972
In 1972 the Club of Rome published its landmark report,
Limits to Growth, which dramatically predicted the inevitable
collapse of civilization unless economic growth was halted
immediately
The only solution to avoid this horrible outcome?
Strict government-imposed controls on just about everything
and a restriction of average industrial output per capita
2 at about the 1975 level.

3. remember:
1975
3

4. Newsweek
4

5. The Little Ice Age (LIA)
 From 1400 -1600(?) to 1850(?)
 At least 1°C colder
 Probably global, not only NH
 Not uniform
(time/regional)
5

6. Maunder Minimum
6

7. Solar irradiance variation
1880
7

8. Be10 = solar activity proxy
(ice core)
Inverted scale
8

9. C14 = solar activity proxy
(tree rings)
Red + Green = Be10
9

10. Solar wind
10

11. Solar wind speed
11

12. Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR)
GCR =
electrons
protons (90%)
helium (9%)
other nuclei
(all elements)
12

13. GCR modulation by solar activity
13 Active sun > many sun spots > strong solar wind > blown away GCRs > less Be10 + C14

14. Decreasing GCR
14

15. Cosmic shower (here iron)
15

16. Ion density
high
middle
low
16

17. GCR >>> CCN
17

18. GCR and clouds
18

19. GCR >>> clouds
High clouds ( > 6.5 km)
Middle clouds ( 3.2- 6.5 km)
Low clouds ( < 3.2 km)
19

20. Cloud forcings
20

21. GRC and low cloud cover
measured low cloud cover
21

22. TSI - GCR - cloud cover
Inverted scale!
22

23. Sky experiment Svensmark, Danish National Spacecenter, 2005
23 “Natural” Cosmic rays > free electrons > clustering > CCN

24. CERN: CLOUD project (J. Kirkby, 2007-2010?)
24

25. Radiative heating
IPPC: CO2 emissions = + 1.66 W/m2
Palle: warming due to the reduction in cloud cover
1993 to 2001 = + 7.5 W/m2
25

26. ( Change relative to pre-industrial 1750 situation) LOSU =
level of scientific
IPCC consensus forcings understanding
high
low
26

27. IPCC concensus ignored climate
forcings
 Cosmic rays
 UV increase (10 times TSI increase)
 Ocean emissivity (positive solar feedback)
 Albedo decrease (greening earth)
 ????
IPCC climate sensitivity
Cs = dT/Σforcings = 0.75K/(Wm-2) probably
much too high i.e. wrong!
27

28. Dirty snow
28 IPCC: < 7% June 2007

29. Decreasing AOT
(atmospheric optical thickness)
AOT is a measure of the
atmosphere’s turpitude at a special
wavelength. AOT = [0…1]
29

30. Prof. Akasufo (director of the Arctic International Research Center)
March 2007
30

31. GCM models unreliable
Observation Model (hindcast)
31 Arctic Winter 1954-2003

32. Prof. S. Akasufo
(director of the Arctic International Research Center)
There is so far no definitive proof that most of the
“observed” warming is due to the (man made)
greenhouse effect (March 2007)
32

33. Prof. R. Lindzen, MIT
 Die heutige Unruhe hat ihre Ursachen zum
grössten Teil in mangelnden Kenntnissen,
was bei Wetter und Klima normal ist…
 Sämtliche Untersuchungen zu den
Auswirkungen des Klimawandels gehen von
einer langen Kette von Voraussetzungen
aus, und es besteht nur eine sehr geringe
Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Folgen dieser
Kette richtig vorausgesagt werden [Cicerone, Juni 07]
33

34. Prof. Roger Pielke, Univ. of Boulder
June 2007
34

35. Helmut Schmidt
35 May 2007

36. Censuring GW sceptics
Question parlementaire 1743
36

37. Web (1) http://meteo.lcd.lu
37 The Global Warming Sceptic

38. 38

39. Web (2)
39

40. Books
Pielke&Cotton, 2007
Svensmark/Calder Singer/Avery M. Leroux P. Michaels P. Michaels
2007 2006 2005 2005 2000
40

41. Global temperature anomaly (versus mean of
1901-2000) and CO2 for 2002-2006: no more
warming!
41 NCDC (National Climatic Data Center)

42. The new indulgence (Der neue Ablass)
42

43. Merci de votre attention…
43