3. TNO
TNO is a Dutch company with over 80 years experience
in technology development and technical consultancy
TNO Facts
Independent
Technology development, consulting and contract R&D
Approximately 4000 employees
Revenue: ⅔ from industry, ⅓ from Dutch government
Markets
Energy, Defence Safety & Security, Transport & Mobility,
Information Society, Medical and Built Environment
3
Partners
14. Realism to Prevail: Direct Substitution NO OPTION!
EU-28 gas boycot Russian imports unfeasible
Costs are too high, even that Russia will be hit harder!
Replacement not available on short term
Infrastructure not available for EU-28
Gas storage options only feasible NW-Europe/Spain
Eastern EU member countries still to be hit extremely
North Africa-Caspian options available but not on short term
West Africa-East Africa in future?
IRAN TO BE NEXT MAIN SUBSTITUTE? TO BE CONSIDERED!
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16. EU Energy Strategy to be Changed!
EU Energy Strategy non-functional at present
Nationalism prevails above European liberalisation and energy
strategy
German Energie Wende shows trend towards destabilisation EU
energy markets
EU needs One Foreign Energy Strategy for all
- strategy needed to attract as one economic block new partners for
diversification supplies
- strategy needed to support import increase and domestic supply (shale
gas?)
Realism should be there to understand that Energy = International Politics
= Security
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17. Geopolitics at Present to Rule!
EU-Russia (Gazprom) conflict brooming due to geopolitical issues
Russian geopol based on old Russian dream of ‘Grand Empire’
Gazprom (and all others) pawn in Putin’s energy politics
In contrast to EU-US politicians (Schroder-Blair-Bush) views on Putin,
latter is no democratic liberal, but old-fashioned ex-KGB politician
Krim issue only first step in Russian Chess Game
Follows NATO-US unability to support Georgia before
Potential new targets EU member-countries and NATO members
Estland-Letland-Lithuania.
Possibility of Article 5 issue
Current crisis Eastern Ukraine needs to be solved. If not, ….!
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18. Outcome Negative for Western Geopolitical
Influence
If NATO-EU is not effective in containing Russian expansion more is
to follow
Washington’s inability to step into Middle East Arab Spring Arena
already has eroded Western influence Arab countries
Pax Americana could be substituted by Pax Russia
Arab countries (including North Africa) are not positive about
Western support anymore
Currently international arena tends to ‘Follow the Leader” principle
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