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Vulnerability: Drought




Case studies:
US (2012) versus Ethiopia (2009) Drought
       Charlotte Chung, Tae Eun Kim, Yusuke Fukuyama, Isabel Wilson
Characteristics: Areal Extent

                 US                        Ethiopia
2012-2013                        March 2008-April 2009




January 3 2012     July 3 2012




                                               2009



        April 9 2013
Characteristics: Frequency

            US                       Ethiopia

-  Dust Bowl (1930s)         Increased frequency of
-  Droughts of the 1950s     droughts in eastern Africa
-  Droughts of the 1970s     over the past 20 years


not as frequent as
Ethiopian droughts, but of
larger severity



                                   Horn of Africa
Characteristics: Magnitude

            US                        Ethiopia

•  54.6% of the states       •  Precipitation levels fell
  experienced drought by       under 30% of the average
  the end of June 2012,        in 1995-2010
  reaching its highest
  percentage since 1956

•  Covered much larger
  area compared to past
  droughts, but more
  concentrated in severity
Characteristics: Speed of Onset

       US             Ethiopia
Socio-Economic Vulnerability




    Wealth              Education




               Health
Wealth
More wealth=less vulnerability

             US                          Ethiopia
 GDP: $15,653 trillion        GDP: $103.1 billion
 per capita: $49,800          per capita: $513
 below poverty line: 15.1%    below poverty line: 29.2%
                              Labor Force: agriculture
 Labor Force: farming
   forestry fishing (0.7%),   (85%), industry (5%),
   manufacture extract        services (10%)
   transport craft (20.3%),
   technical professional     Lower Vulnerability
   (37.3%), office (24.2%),   because of better
                              economy and higher
   services (17.6%)           income
Education
Higher education=less vulnerability

                   US                                  Ethiopia
 School life expectancy:                     School life expectancy:
  •    Male (15)                             •    Male (9)
  •    Female (17)                           •    Female (8)
 Literacy rate                               Literacy rate
  •    Total: 99.9%                          •    Total: 42.7%

  •    Male: 99.9%                           •    Male: 50.3%

  •    Female: 99.9%                         •    Female: 35.1%
                                             Education Expenditure
 Education Expenditure
  •  5.4% of GDP        Higher School life
                                             •  4.7% of GDP
                        expectancy and
                        literacy rate =
                        Less vulnerable
Health
Better health care=less vulnerability

                  US                           Ethiopia
 Health expenditure                    Health expenditure
 17.9% of GDP                          4.9% of GDP
 Children under the age of 5           Children under the age of 5
    underweight - 1.3%                 underweight - 29.2%
 Infant mortality rate                 Infant mortality rate
 6 deaths per 1000 births              60.9 deaths per 1000 births

      Better health facilities, less
      children underweight, lower
      infant mortality rate= lower
      vulnerability
Demographics
Very differentiated
 Ethiopia                                                       USA
  -80 million in population         -Urbanized, while 82% residing in
  -Average family size of 6-7       cities and suburbs
  -41.5% of population aged         -3rd populous country in the world
     between 0-14                   (more than 300 million)
  -Very youthful population         -Stationary population structure, and
                                    many are still in their active age (low
  -Urban population is 17% of the
                                    dependency)
     total population
Ethiopia: Ethnic Variations
 Ethnic inequality=higher vulnerability

                                              Certain et
                                                         hnic group
                                              were cons             s
                                                        idered mo
                                             important            re
                                                        than the
                                             others




                                                               k of
  Ethnicity   % of Population                          e s: lac ment,
                                                tuniti         ve
                                      e d oppor tical invol
                                Limit ion, poli           tural
                                                  of cul
   Oromo            40
                                 ed ucat
                                            ation
                                 ma  nifest
   Amahara          25

    Tigray           7
USA: Ethnic Variations
Low vulnerability from ethnicity
                                                 Most affected areas:
                                                 Colorado, Kansas,
                                                 Oklahoma, Nebraska,
                                                 Arkansas, Missouri,
                                                 Illinois, Kentucky,
                                                 Indiana, Georgia




    Inequality between    Re c e i v
                                    e e qu a
    ethnicities is very   opport             l
                                    unities
    low
Overall Evaluation

              USA                    Ethiopia

 •  Only the first year of   •  Caught in a deadly cycle
   drought                     of death and famine

 •  Less time needed for     •  Around US$176 million
   recovery                    was donated in
                               international aid - not
                               enough

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US drought vs. Ethiopian drought

  • 1. Vulnerability: Drought Case studies: US (2012) versus Ethiopia (2009) Drought Charlotte Chung, Tae Eun Kim, Yusuke Fukuyama, Isabel Wilson
  • 2. Characteristics: Areal Extent US Ethiopia 2012-2013 March 2008-April 2009 January 3 2012 July 3 2012 2009 April 9 2013
  • 3. Characteristics: Frequency US Ethiopia -  Dust Bowl (1930s) Increased frequency of -  Droughts of the 1950s droughts in eastern Africa -  Droughts of the 1970s over the past 20 years not as frequent as Ethiopian droughts, but of larger severity Horn of Africa
  • 4. Characteristics: Magnitude US Ethiopia •  54.6% of the states •  Precipitation levels fell experienced drought by under 30% of the average the end of June 2012, in 1995-2010 reaching its highest percentage since 1956 •  Covered much larger area compared to past droughts, but more concentrated in severity
  • 5. Characteristics: Speed of Onset US Ethiopia
  • 6. Socio-Economic Vulnerability Wealth Education Health
  • 7. Wealth More wealth=less vulnerability US Ethiopia GDP: $15,653 trillion GDP: $103.1 billion per capita: $49,800 per capita: $513 below poverty line: 15.1% below poverty line: 29.2% Labor Force: agriculture Labor Force: farming forestry fishing (0.7%), (85%), industry (5%), manufacture extract services (10%) transport craft (20.3%), technical professional Lower Vulnerability (37.3%), office (24.2%), because of better economy and higher services (17.6%) income
  • 8. Education Higher education=less vulnerability US Ethiopia School life expectancy: School life expectancy: •  Male (15) •  Male (9) •  Female (17) •  Female (8) Literacy rate Literacy rate •  Total: 99.9% •  Total: 42.7% •  Male: 99.9% •  Male: 50.3% •  Female: 99.9% •  Female: 35.1% Education Expenditure Education Expenditure •  5.4% of GDP Higher School life •  4.7% of GDP expectancy and literacy rate = Less vulnerable
  • 9. Health Better health care=less vulnerability US Ethiopia Health expenditure Health expenditure 17.9% of GDP 4.9% of GDP Children under the age of 5 Children under the age of 5 underweight - 1.3% underweight - 29.2% Infant mortality rate Infant mortality rate 6 deaths per 1000 births 60.9 deaths per 1000 births Better health facilities, less children underweight, lower infant mortality rate= lower vulnerability
  • 10. Demographics Very differentiated Ethiopia USA -80 million in population -Urbanized, while 82% residing in -Average family size of 6-7 cities and suburbs -41.5% of population aged -3rd populous country in the world between 0-14 (more than 300 million) -Very youthful population -Stationary population structure, and many are still in their active age (low -Urban population is 17% of the dependency) total population
  • 11. Ethiopia: Ethnic Variations Ethnic inequality=higher vulnerability Certain et hnic group were cons s idered mo important re than the others k of Ethnicity % of Population e s: lac ment, tuniti ve e d oppor tical invol Limit ion, poli tural of cul Oromo 40 ed ucat ation ma nifest Amahara 25 Tigray 7
  • 12. USA: Ethnic Variations Low vulnerability from ethnicity Most affected areas: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia Inequality between Re c e i v e e qu a ethnicities is very opport l unities low
  • 13. Overall Evaluation USA Ethiopia •  Only the first year of •  Caught in a deadly cycle drought of death and famine •  Less time needed for •  Around US$176 million recovery was donated in international aid - not enough