1. Food Security in Asia
For the students of International
School of Manila
April 2011

2. 2
1. What we hear about it
2. Why it matters
3. What we have been doing
4. What needs to be done

3. Food security: what we hear about it 3
Higher food prices
February 2011
“World food prices surged to a new historic peak in January,
for the seventh consecutive month” (FAO)
“Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels” (World
Bank)

4. Food security: what we hear about it 4
What drives food price rise
Cyclical factors Structural factors
(It just happens..) (How the world is made)
• Crop failures • Increasing demand
• Natural disasters • Low grain stock
• Stagnating yield growth
• High fuel prices • Less water and land
• Weak US$ • Bio-fuel competition

5. Food security: what we hear about it 5
Increasing demand for food:
70% more food needed to feed
population - 6.7 billion now to 9
billion in 2050 (FAO)
Decreasing farm land
Source: FAO, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0765e/i0765e08.pdf
Source: IFPRI, 2001

6. Food security: what we hear about it 6
Emerging water crisis:
Asia has 50% of world’s population but only 30% of world’s
fresh water
Severe shortage in 40% of developing Asia by 2030
Climate change affects water availability (IWMI)
Source: UN Environment Program
http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/

7. Food security: what we hear about it 7
Climate change: Decline in the global crop production by as
much as 15% of rain-fed maize, 20% of irrigated wheat, and
16% of irrigated rice (IFPRI)
Biofuel: 90% increase in demand for transport fuel,
2000-2050. Increasing demand for biofuel (IIASA).
Irrigated rice
production in 2050
Source: IFPRI

8. Food security: what we hear about it 8
Disasters in Asia:
Between 1975 and 2006, Asia had 89% of disaster-
affected people, 57% of fatalities, and 44% of economic
damages (Sanker, et al)
Climate change increases frequency and intensity of
disasters (IPCC)

9. Food Security: Why it matters 9
 Affects economic growth
Food inflation  Hurts poor people and
increase poverty
 Leads to panic and hording
Market volatility  Food disappears from shops
 Leads to social instability
Photos fom
“Hungry Planet”
Vulnerable food
by Peter Menzel  Leads to supply shortage
supply systems  Increases food prices

10. Food Security: Why it matters 10
Food security and poverty
 Despite continuing fight against poverty, Asia
is still home to the largest number of poor
 Higher food prices hurt poor people most
Hungry people
in the world
(FAO, 2010)

11. Food Security: Why it matters 11
Volatility of food grains market
 Accurate information about food not available
 Free and open trade remains a goal, not a practice
 Lack of information causes hording and panic
 Speculation fans volatility, and is hard to regulate
 Abnormal spikes in food prices benefit nobody
Export price of Thai
white rice, 5%
broken
Source: IRRI

12. Food Security: Why it matters 12
Problems with the existing food supply systems
 R&D: Not enough support to research and technology
development
 Small farmers who dominate Asia’s agriculture lack
access to finance, infrastructure, and technology
 More investment is needed in agriculture but funding
is not enough
 Efficient value chain is a key to deliver more food to
market, but many farmers remain left
 Risk management: Agriculture is a risky business, and
we have not found the way to manage risks well

13. Food Security: What we have done to date 13
Green Revolution
How it  Widespread hunger and poverty in Asia in mid
started 1960s.
 The Rockefeller and Ford foundations initiated.
 IRRI and CIMMYT to develop new rice and wheat
variety
 Expanded use of fertilizer and Irrigation
What did it  More than double cereal production in Asia
do (1970-95).
 No famine despite population increase by 60%.
 Poverty declined from 3 out of 5 to less than 1 in 5.
But some  Environmental degradation, and increased
criticize inequality.
 Agriculture becomes more input-reliant, particularly
to fertilizer and energy.

14. Food Security: What we have done to date 14
Food security challenges today
What we did Good news Bad news
are more complex
Safety net New and more promising Many poor people remain
approaches vulnerable
Promotion of trade inflationinterest and
Food Stronger Politics prevails in the end
political will of the day
Agronomic New and coordinated Funding shortage
approach and funding Weak link to small farmers
innovation
Irrigation Expanded coverage of High level of water
development
Market volatility production
irrigation with inefficiency
growth Lack of O&M funding
Value chain Active private sector Small and poor famers left
engagement out
development
Vulnerable food supply systems
Climate change Increasing knowledge, tools More knowledge and tools
and funding support needed
adaptation

15. Food Security: What needs to be done 15
 Improve safety net for the poor and
vulnerable against shocks
 Enhance agriculture and food trade
 Make technologies available to the poor
 Produce more food with less water
 Invest in rural infrastructure
 Strengthen value chain for the poor
 Develop tools and business to manage risks

16. Food Security: What needs to be done 16
More debate needed on:
Does the world need the second Green Revolution or
not?
Do we support genetically modified crops or not?
Food or biofuel?
Should small farmers be protected or should more of
them be sent to non agriculture?
Food self-sufficiency or free trade?
Increased partnership with private sector – can it be
supportive of the poor?

17. Thank you for listening.
Katsuji Matsunami Views expressed in this presentation do
not necessarily reflect the views of the
Asian Development Bank Asian Development Bank.
kmatsunami@adb.org