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1. “The Business of Carbon Sequestration and
Forestation”, Greater Houston Partnership
The Science Behind Terrestrial
Carbon Sequestration?
John Kadyszewski
Winrock International
Houston, Texas
November 3, 2005

2. How do Ecosystems Sequester
Carbon?
P R
P
Photosynthesis (P)
fixes CO2 R
Respiration (R)
releases CO2
Photosynthesis exceeds respiration, resulting in
storage of carbon 2
©Winrock International 2005

3. Where is Carbon Sequestered?
Live biomass
• Trees
• Understory
• Roots “Carbon Pools”
Dead biomass
• Standing
• Down
• Coarse
• Fine
Wood products
Soil
©Winrock International 2005 3

4. At What Rate Does Carbon
Accumulate?
P R
P
Photosynthesis (P)
fixes CO2 R
Respiration (R)
releases CO2
1-5 t C/ha.yr
0.1-0.5 t C/ha.yr
©Winrock International 2005 4

5. What is a Terrestrial Carbon
Sequestration Project?
Project-based carbon benefits
are the difference between the
selected “carbon pools” in the
with-project and without-project
cases
©Winrock International 2005 5

6. Terrestrial Sequestration Options
State
Agricultural Land Grazing Land Forest Land Accessory Data
Afforestation Afforestation Extend Rotation Risks
Change in Change Change Species Co-Benefits
Tillage Management
Grassland Grassland Change
Restoration Restoration Management
Conservation
©Winrock International 2005 6

7. Afforestation
Convert agricultural
or grazing land
back to forest
• Return to native
forest
• Convert to forest land
for timber production
Source: Tim Pearson, Winrock International
Mixed Conifers
©Winrock International 2005 7

8. Afforestation
Convert to forest
land with fast-
growing species
Hybrid Poplar
28 years old
110 feet tall
32 in. dbh
Source: Jon Johnson, Washington State University
©Winrock International 2005 8

9. Growth Rates for Trees
Douglas Fir 4 dry t/acre/yr
~50 year rotation
Hybrid Poplar 10 dry t/acre/yr
6-8 year rotation
Source: Jon Johnson
Associate Professor
Washington State University
9 years diameter growth
©Winrock International 2005 9

10. Conserve Forests
Stop forest
conversion to non-
forest
Longleaf pine (120
year old forest)
• 174 tC/ha
Redwood (150 year
old forest)
• 478 tC/ha
Source: Tim Pearson, Winrock International
©Winrock International 2005 10

11. Winrock Carbon Measurement #1
Classify land area into strata with similar
characteristics
Collect ground data to determine variability
within each strata
Insert ground data into Spatial Information
Package
Set number of permanent plots needed to
achieve target level of precision
©Winrock International 2005 11

12. Winrock Carbon Measurement #2
Prepare Standard Operating Procedures
Recommend frequency of monitoring
Devise Quality Assurance/ Quality Control
Plan
Determine need for compliance monitoring
Prepare plan for archiving data
©Winrock International 2005 12

13. Accuracy and Precision
Statistical sampling
Report results with error bars
Trade-off between cost and precision
• Expected variability affects number of plots
• Fixed and variable costs
• Different project classes have different
measurement costs
©Winrock International 2005 13

14. Establish Permanent Plots
Each plot is
permanently
marked and
georeferenced.
©Winrock International 2005 14

15. Measure
Aboveground
Biomass
Measure diameter at breast
height for all trees within the
boundaries of the permanent
plot – carbon estimated from
regression equations
©Winrock International 2005 15

16. Measuring Understory and Fine
Litter
Use clip plots (60 cm
diameter frame) to
sample herbaceous
vegetation and litter
within the permanent
plot
Collect total fresh
weight and dry a sub-
sample to calculate
dry biomass
©Winrock International 2005 16

17. Measuring Dead Wood
For standing dead trees
estimate biomass using
regression equations or
volume from detailed
measurements
Use line intersect
method for lying dead
wood
Sample dead wood for
density estimate
©Winrock International 2005 17

18. Sampling Soils for
Organic Carbon Collect 4 samples,
mix well and sieve
through 2 mm mesh
screen
Expose mineral soil surface
Dig 30 cm x 30 cm pit or take Air dry (not in direct
soil core sun) and send to lab
for C analysis
Photo by André Ferreti
Photo by Matt Delaney
Collect one sample
Photo by Matt Delaney for bulk density
©Winrock International 2005 18

19. Entergy
Cinergy
©Winrock International 2005 19

20. Reducing Measurement Costs
Aerial Measurements

21. Aerial Measurements Using High
Resolution 3D Imagery
©Winrock International 2005 21

22. Aerial Sample Plots
©Winrock International 2005 22

23. Labor Needed for Aerial vs Field Plots
Step M3DADI approach Conventional field
approach
Prepare the plane and 24 --
collect imagery
Processing the imagery or 65 0.13
field data†
Collect and record plot 0.71 3.4
measurements-time per plot
Enter data into 0.25 0.75
spreadsheets-time per plot
Estimated total time to
sample 202 plots*
283 865
©Winrock International 2005 23

24. Project Issues
Baselines
Leakage
Reversibility (Permanence)
• Duration
• Risk of Loss
Additionality
Measurement and Monitoring
©Winrock International 2005 24

25. Can these activities make a
difference?
Global estimates of the potential amount of land available and potential amount of
C that could be sequestered and conserved by forest management practices on this
land between 1995 to 2050.
Latitudinal Practice Area C sequestered
belt (Mha) & conserved (billion tons)
Boreal Forestation 95 2.4
Temperate Forestation 113 11.8
Agroforestry 7 0.7 14
Tropics Forestation 67 16.4
Agroforestry 63 6.3
Regeneration 217 11.5-28.7
Slow deforestation 138 10.8-20.8 46-73
Total 700 60-87
*The amount of C conserved and sequestered here is
equivalent to 12-15% of the business-as-usual fossil fuel
emissions over the same time period
From Brown et al. 1996, Second Assessment Report of IPCC; 25
©Winrock International 2005
Kauppi and Sedjo 2000, Third Assessment Report, IPCC

26. Multiple Additional
Environmental Benefits
Co-Benefits
Water Flood Control Biodiversity New Income
Sources
Watershed Reduced Cost Endangered Non-timber
Integrity for Insurance Species forest products
Water Reduced Flood Parks and Tourism
Quality Damage Reserves
Reduced Reduced Wetlands Forest
Non-Point Non-Point Products
Streams Water
Supply
Expanded
©Winrock International 2005
Habitat 26

27. DOE Regional Partnership
Preliminary results from “Carbon Supply from
Sequestration Activities on Agriculture and Forest
Lands for SECARB Partnership”, Winrock
International, September 2005.

28. Potential Terrestrial Carbon Supply from
Afforestation in SECARB Region
Activity after 40 years Million t CO2 Million acres
Crop land afforestation
$2.40 per metric ton CO2 5 0.04
$10 per metric ton CO2 1128 7.7
$20 per metric ton CO2 3881 28.0
Grazing land afforestation
$2.40 per metric ton CO2 0 0
$10 per metric ton CO2 3277 24.4
$20 per metric ton CO2 3485 27.3
©Winrock International 2005 28

29. Potential C Supply (t Carbon) by
County for Afforestation after 40 yr
Croplands Grazing lands
t Carbon
< 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 2,000,000
2,000,001 - 3,000,000
3,000,001 - 4,000,000
4,000,001 - 5,000,000
5,000,001 - 6,000,000
6,000,001 - 7,000,000
7,000,001 - 8,000,000
8,000,001 - 9,000,000
> 9,000,001
©Winrock International 2005 29

30. Potential C supply ($/t C) for
afforestation after 40 yr
Croplands Grazing lands
< $30.00
$30.01 - $50.00
$50.01 - $70.00
$70.01 - $90.00
$90.01 - $110.00
$110.01 - $130.00
$130.01 - $150.00
Divide $/t C by
$150.01 - $170.00 3.67 to get $/t
CO2
$170.01 - $190.00
©Winrock International 2005 > $190.01 30

31. Options for Cofiring Biomass
Blend biomass with coal on the
conveyor belt and feed through the
pulverizer– estimated cost $100-
200/kw
• Limited to < 3% heat from biomass except
with cyclone boilers that could blend up to
10%
Retrofit to add biomass-only injection
point – estimated cost $200-300/kw
©Winrock International 2005 31

32. Potential Terrestrial Sequestration
-- Assuming Heat Rate of 11,000 BTU/kWh and Capacity Factor 80%
-- Assuming conversion to forest with 20 or 40 year rotations
Power Biomass Fuel Land Change in Carbon
Output Required Required Stocks
30 MW 212,000 MT 42,000 20 yrs – 2.1 M tons
acres 40 yrs – 6.3 M tons
50 MW 353,000 MT 70,600 20 yrs – 3.5 M tons
acres 40 yrs – 10.5 M tons
80 MW 565,000 MT 113,000 20 yrs – 5.7 M tons
acres 40 yrs – 17.0 M tons
©Winrock International 2005 32

33. Land Requirements
~ 5 million acres available within 50 miles
Land Percentage Carbon Sequestration
Required Value at $2/MT CO2
42,000 <1% 20 yrs – $7.7 Million
acres 40 yrs – $23.1 Million
70,600 ~1.4% 20 yrs – $12.8 Million
acres 40 yrs – $38.5 Million
113,000 ~2.3% 20 yrs – $20.9 Million
acres 40 yrs – $62.3Million
©Winrock International 2005 33

34. Carbon Price: Dollars per Hectare -- 40 Years
©Winrock International 2005 34

35. Environmental Benefits
Carbon benefits
• Displace coal -- annual benefit
• Stimulate changes in land use that result
in higher average carbon stocks
Can reduce NOx emissions
Biomass usually has no sulfur or
mercury
Low ash and less particulates
©Winrock International 2005 35

36. Summary
Terrestrial carbon sequestration projects
can be measured accurately at low cost
New aerial methods will reduce costs
further
Afforestation is the largest option available
in the SE region of the US
Co-firing biomass fuels with coal could
produce significant emission reductions
©Winrock International 2005 36

37. Questions or Comments:
John Kadyszewski
Winrock International
(703) 525-9430,ext 618
Jkadyszewski@winrock.org
©Winrock International 2005 37