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Third Industrial Revolution May/June 2015

  1. May 2015
  2. Halloween in Nashville, 1974
  3. Then… Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  4. …Now Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  5. USD 45 bln
  6. Doing more with less
  7. Banking is essential, but banks are not. Bill Gates
  8. 2014 Fintech Investment: USD 12.2 bln globally and USD 1.5 bln in Europe
  9. In just the past few years in Stockholm… Company Founded Business Klarna 2005 E-commerce payment services MyLoan 2006 Loan broker Trustly 2008 Online payments TrustBuddy 2009 P2P lending iZettle 2010 Mobile payments FundedByMe 2011 Crowdfunding, crowd equity Kivra 2011 Digital mailbox Tink 2012 Personal finance Safello 2013 Cryptocurrency exchange KnCMiner 2013 Cryptocurrency mining equipment Toborrow 2013 P2P lending for companies
  10. Within 6 years: Challenging the fiat money system? Bitcoin = The power of community + open source + internet + CPU • Open source project on SourceForge in Jan 2009 • Original source code by “Satoshi Nakamoto” – pseudonym? • Developed by self-organizing community of thousands of strangers across globe • Approx USD 3.3 bln market cap and 105,000 daily transactions (1 BTC = USD 235, May 29) Teigland, Yetis, Larsson 2013
  11. If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization) exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.... -Jack Welch
  12. Increasing pace of change  From 1920s to 2010s − Average lifespan of S&P 500 company fell from 67 years to 15 years  Predictions − In next few years, 70% of Fortune 1000 companies to be replaced − By 2020, >75% of S&P 500 companies do not exist today − By 2025, >45% of Fortune 500 companies to be from emerging markets Fast Company, McKinsey & Inc
  13. People • “Net generation” • 24x7 “mobile” workforce • Knowledge via MOOCs • Sharing not consuming • Sustainability Technology • Broadband access • The Cloud • Mobile phones • Internet of Things • Big Data • 3D printing • Robotics/AI • VR/AR • Holography • Blockchain Open Source • Software • Hardware • Physibles Convergence of….. Finance • Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P • Non-fiat cryptocurrencies • Mobile money/payments • M2M payments
  14. History tends to repeat itself…. Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, … Steam engine Internal combustion engine Internet Microelectronics Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th C Schön 2008 Third industrial revolution?
  15. From factories ….
  16. offices…
  17. …to server halls and …
  18. …third spaces • US: 40% of workforce freelancers • Sweden: 700,000 to 900,000 F-skatt in past 10 years
  19. Jobs that did not exist 10 years ago  iOS/Android developer  Social media manager  UI/UX designer  Big data architect  Cloud services specialist  Digital marketing specialist  Sustainability expert  Zumba instructor  Beach body coach
  20. No one knows everything, everyone knows something, all knowledge resides in humanity.networks. Adapted from Lévy 1997 Six degrees of separation - Milgram, 1967
  21. Community Platform HierarchicalFirmvs E.g., GE, Ford ~ Created by employees within organizational boundaries E.g., Local Motors ~ Created by community collaborators regardless of affiliation Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012 Models of Value Creation
  22. Est. $30 mln sales 30% profit margin in commodity business 20 employees but a 24x7 global “workforce” of 2.4 million No internal R&D or sales & marketing Threadless A platform for global community collaboration
  23. “Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.” • 1000x cheaper to produce new car model • 5-22x faster production, depending on vehicle
  24. Local Motors and GE team up From economies of scale to economies of creativity?
  25. In the meanwhile… Increasing forces for local community
  26. Dining Clothes Workspaces Cars Small machinery Living
  27. Hoffice – Sharing your home with local freelancers Structured working process
  28. Hoffice – a Swedish concept gone global
  29. Increasing access to capital through all forms of crowdfunding
  30. From the north of Sweden
  31. DIY 3D printing becoming more commonplace…
  32. Making 3D printers on her boat
  33. Where is the firm? 24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D Printing $60,000 $150 Available for free download on $45
  34. Developing circular economies Local materials? Reduced consumption? Reduced transport? Fueled by local “money”? And by IoT?
  35. Today > 6000 complementary currencies  Many community-based currencies  In cooperation with fiat currencies  Benefits − Counterbalance banks − Create means of exchange − Promote resilience of local community
  36. Rise of local currencies
  37. From “trusted”, centralized human authorities to trustless, decentralized networks IBM Institute for Business Value (PDF)
  38. What is Bitcoin? Is it ….  A currency?  An investment? But it is definitely much more than “a coin”…  A ledger (the blockchain)  A software development platform  A P2P network for monetary and non- monetary asset transactions Returning the internet to its roots as a decentralized P2P system?
  39. IoT and smart contracts  Smart property − Ownership attached to asset/property and can be verified  Smart contracts − Run on blockchain technology, execute legal rules between two entities: people, organizations, machines − Trustless because no center, no one in middle – the network is the middleman − Example: I run a private weather station using neighbors’ sensors. Smart contracts enable payment to neighbors for data sent from their sensors to my weather station. − But time will tell… uses we cannot imagine today.
  40. Emerging companies in IoT/Blockchain space Enables decentralized electronic security via keyless access protocol for smart property (Ethereum) Manages payment addresses assigned to each IoT device for M2M sale of data (Bitcoin) Enables sensors to have private key to participate in blockchain (Bitcoin)
  41. Ethereum: Next gen Bitcoin protocol?
  42. They do not own the assets, but they have a center that can be disrupted by the blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies
  43. Moving towards a true Sharing Economy? Blockchain Sharing Economy IoT P2P/M2M Micropayments
  44. Thomas Jefferson (1816) “Laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind.” The problem is that the human mind itself can’t keep pace with the advances that computers are enabling.
  45. Some questions… • Will we see a parallel to other industries, e.g., music, software, newspaper, books? • How to learn about new developments such as crowdfunding, P2P lending, cryptocurrencies, mobile payment systems? • Will “trusted” third parties no longer be needed since trust can be mediated through networks, which are self-regulating? • What basic assumptions will no longer hold, e.g., do we need money? • How to turn threat into opportunity?
  46. The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed. - William Gibson
  47. Want to learn more? Join our funnovation workshops
  48. Robin Teigland @RobinTeigland If you love knowledge, set it free… If you like this presentation and would like to contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins: 14hs4JbnQLXE87GGzu84uXGaspmxmnLpwC. Thank you!!!!!