1.
June 2016

2.
Halloween in Nashville, 1974

3.
Market
knowledge?
Competence?
Suppliers?
“Back office”?
Financial
systems?
The “death of distance”
enables numerous opportunities
Market access?
Skills?
Financial
capital?

4.
The future is already here,
it’s just not very evenly
distributed.
- William Gibson

5.
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

6.
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

7.
2015

8.
• What technologies are used?
• What basic assumptions are broken?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-rEI4bezWc

9.
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

10.
People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Knowledge via MOOCs
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
• Gigs and not jobs
Technology
• Broadband
• Smart phones
• Cloud
• Internet of Things
• Big Data
• 3D printing
• Robotics/AI
• VR/AR
• Holography
Open Source IP
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P
• Cryptocurrencies
• Blockchain
• Mobile money/payments
• M2M payments

11.
Uber
• Launched June 2010
• >330 cities in 60 countries
• Limited physical assets
• > USD 60 bln valuation
(Ericsson – USD 30 bln)
“Doing more with less” through a global
platform

12.
A system that activates the untapped
value of all kinds of assets through models
and marketplaces that enable greater
efficiency and access.
- Botsman
The Sharing Economy
Harvard Business Review, 2014
The Sharing Economy: Embracing Change with Caution
http://www.slideshare.net/eteigland/sharing-economy-webb

13.
The Sharing Economy is enabled through
peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions on
multi-sided platforms (MSPs)
http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/strategic-decisions-for-multisided-platforms/

14.
LEARNING
p2p learning open courses & moocs
PRODUCTION
co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers)
FINANCE
p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies
GOVERNANCE
SWARM
participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO
CONSUMPTION
redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services
COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1

15.
No one knows everything,
everyone knows something,
all knowledge resides in humanity.networks.
Adapted from Lévy 1997Image: Krebs

16.
“Local Motors is the place for people to create
influential vehicles together.”
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/02/local-motors-and-the-radical-redesign-of-business.html
• 100xs less capital cost
• 5xs faster production

17.
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20160520-local-motors-unveils-3d-printed-strati-car-packed-with-autonomous-driving-iot-tech.html

18.
Community platform
Hierarchicalfirm
VS
E.g., Ford
~ Created by employees within
organizational boundaries
E.g., Local Motors
~ Created by community collaborators
regardless of affiliation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?

19.
Microfactories – Local and Mobile
Integrating offline and online communities
Arizona
Washington DC
Tennessee
Germany

20.
LEARNING
p2p learning open courses & moocs
PRODUCTION
co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers)
FINANCE
p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies
GOVERNANCE
SWARM
participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO
CONSUMPTION
redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services
COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1

21.
From factories ….

22.
...to offices…

23.
…to server halls and …

24.
….. Robots with artificial intelligence
MX3D to 3D print steel bridge

25.
Jobs that did not exist 10 years ago
 iOS/Android developer
 Social media manager
 UI/UX designer
 Big data architect
 Cloud services specialist
 Digital marketing specialist
 Sustainability expert
 Zumba instructor
 Beach body coach
 Drone pilot and photographer
http://talent.linkedin.com/blog/index.php/2014/01/top-10-job-titles-that-didnt-exist-5-years-ago-infographic

26.
Percentage of freelancers rapidly growing
• US: 40% of workforce freelancers
• Sweden: 700,000 to 900,000 F-skatt in past 10 years

27.
Cost to launch a tech start-up
Down by a
factor of 1000

28.
Knowledge through MOOCs
(Massively Open Online Courses)

29.
Trading one job for a number of “gigs”…

30.
A 24x7 global workforce
Matchmakers: USD 1bln industry

31.
Hoffice – a Swedish concept gone global

32.
Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague

33.
A 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat
Knowledge: RepRap community
E-commerce: Aliexpress

34.
My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!

35.
Microfactories and global 3D printer networks

36.
Enabling circular economies
• Printers printing themselves
• Recycling local garbage into filament

37.
Increasing forces
for local community and
circular economies

38.
Using gamification and AI
to influence behaviors?

39.
From the north of Sweden

40.
What is crowdfunding?
Accumulation of small investments in individual
projects by large number of individuals (the
“crowd”) via or with help of Internet and social
networks (De Buysere et al., 2012)
Picture: FundedByMe

41.
Toborrow.se

42.
P2B loans through Toborrow.se

43.
Crowdfunding to promote development

44.
What’s around the corner?
24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D Printing
http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/
$60,000
$150
Available for free
download on
$45
Where is
the firm?
$5

45.
Banking is essential,
but banks are not.
Bill Gates
The emergence of FinTech

46.
Greatly increased ease of transactions

47.
In Europe, PSD2 actually mandates “opening up”

48.
Future consequences of
EU Payment Services Directive (PSD)?
 Payment Services Directive 2 (PSD2) passed on January 12, 2016
 Must be included in domestic legislation by January 13, 2018
 Among other things, requires that banks open up, through APIs
 Intention is to improve consumer experience
 Some precedent (e.g., Tink), but no longer discretionary
 What does this mean for FinTech and banks?

49.
Cheaper and easier international payments

50.
Continued growth of bitcoin
On June 14, 2016
• 1 BTC = USD 685
• 15.6 mln bitcoins in circulation
• Market capitalization of ≈USD 10.8 bln
• ≈230,000 daily transactions
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

51.
Mycelium Bitcoin wallet on my phone

52.
- Andreas Antonopolous
Saying that Bitcoin is a currency
is like saying that the internet is email.
Currency is just the first app!
http://startusingbitcoin.com/blog/1-what-is-bitcoin/

53.
The blockchain underlies bitcoin
 Decentralized and distributed
• Robust, no central control or authority required to
coordinate behavior or interaction
• Shared public history of all transactions
 Displaces roles of trusted third parties
• Can’t do same transaction twice
• No transaction repudiation
• Initial entry requires trust
• System operates on trustless basis
http://www.longfinance.net/images/events/Blockchain_and_Insurance_Webinar_10.14v2.0.pdf

54.
Time will tell…..
The Blockchain is the glue that is going to drive a
productivity revolution across the globe on par
with what Henry Ford did with the automobile.
— Paul Brody, Americas Strategy Leader,
Technology Sector, Ernst & Young

55.
Enabling smart contracts through blockchains?
Weather data
algorithm
Insurance
claim payout

56.
Blockchain insurance applications

57.
The next generation of the Internet
O’Driscoll 2009

58.
New forms of “face to face” meetings

59.
From the mobility of goods
to the mobility of financial capital to …
Teigland, JVWR, 2010
...the “mobility” of labor?

60.
If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of change on
the inside, the end is near....
-Jack Welch

61.
From 60 years in 1960 to 16 in 2010

62.
Market
knowledge?
Competence?
Suppliers?
“Back office”?
Financial
systems?
The “death of distance”
enables numerous opportunities
Market access?
Skills?
Financial
capital?

63.
Leveraging
artificial intelligence

64.
Exploitation
Improving existing
value creation
activities
Exploration
Developing new
value creation
activities
Adapted from March 1991

65.
Looking into the future?
 Forecast
− How we think the future will be
 Vision
− How we want the future to be
 Scenario
− What the future can be
……. Scenarios: More pictures of the future
?
?
? ?

66.
“This present moment used to be
the unimaginable future.”
- Stewart Brand
The Clock of the Long Now
Scenario Thinking Exercise
Professor Robin Teigland
robin.teigland@hhs.se
twitter: @robinteigland
June 2016
The future is not something you enter – it is something that comes at you.
- Anonymous
Instructions
The Scenario Thinking exercise has been designed to stretch your strategic
thinking such that you can be better prepared as a leader in today’s complex
world of fast-paced technological change. It is an opportunity to explore possible
futures and to open up for an expanded range of strategic options available to
your organization so that you can better manage uncertainty.
Scenario thinking is concerned with exploration (based on limited and patchy
information) and options, and not the steps needed for implementation of actions,
which is the realm of strategic planning.
The Scenario Thinking exercise consists of Individual work (Part I), Group work
(Part II), and an In Plenum discussion (Part III), which are described in more
detail below.
Part I – Write a Letter from the Future (Individual) – 40 mins
Scenarios are memories from the future.
-Professor David Ingvar, Neurologist
Project yourself 10 years forward and imagine that it is now June 15, 2026.
You are CEO of your organization. You are to write a letter to a friend who was a
former colleague in 2016 and who now works in another industry. In this letter,
you are to describe your industry and organization in June 2016.
Be creative and develop a story that is unlike the present yet likely and arguable.
Your letter should, however, be challenging in that it contains some surprise or

67.
“I think there’s a world market for
maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, Chairman of
IBM, 1943
“There is no reason
anyone would want a
computer in their home.”
Ken Olson, President,
Chairman and Founder of
Digital Equipment
Corporation, 1977
“Heavier-than-air flying
machines are impossible.”
Lord Kelvin, President, Royal
Society, 1895

68.
Robin Teigland
robin.teigland@hhs.se
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
www.funnovation.se
@robin.teigland
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