The New Industrial Revolution?
Exploring future scenarios of value creation
Professor Robin Teigland
www.robinteigland.com | www.slideshare.net/eteigland | robin.teigland@gmail.com | @RobinTeigland

People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Gig economy
• Online learning
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
Technology
• Broadband/wifi
• Cloud, fog
• Internet of Things
• AI/ML/DL/NN
• Autonomous vehicles
• Smart robotics
• VR/AR/Holography
• 3D/4D printing/ALM
• Blockchains
• Nanotechnology
• Quantum computing
Open Source
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P lending
• Cryptocurrencies, tokens
• Blockchains, smart contracts
• Mobile money and payments
• M2M/R2R payments

If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of
change on the inside,
the end is near....
-Jack Welch

Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016
Yet..Digital disruption
has only just begun.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiEzf3J4iFk

All our knowledge is about the past,
but all our strategic decisions are about the future
Conway 2003
What we don’t know
we don’t know
about the future
What we know
What we know
we don’t know

Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos

We always overestimate the change
that will occur in the next two years
and underestimate the change
that will occur in the next ten.
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996

Updated from http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/; statista, November 2018
$1.06T $754B$782B $820B
2018
$438B
Technology (AI) replacing energy and
banking

While 63% of CEOs
believe AI will have a
larger impact on the
world than the
internet,….
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2019/report/pwc-22nd-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf
…only 3% have
AI as fundamental to
the organization’s
operations.

Free online AI courses

Smart Robots

H.I.S. Co. Hotels run by robots
Check-in
Other Automated Tasks
Concierge, Porters, Cleaning, Lawnmowing,
Room Service, Robot Trashcan, Robot Fish
Food Deliveries

Alibaba’s FlyZoo Future Hotel
https://www.alizila.com/introducing-alibabas-flyzoo-future-hotel/

Exploitation Exploration

FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 130,000 $56B
UBER 2009 16,000 $72B
MARRIOTT 1927 177,000 $40B
AIRBNB 2008 10,000 $38B
WALT DISNEY 1923 199,000 $171B
FACEBOOK 2004 25,000 $422B
WALMART 1962 2,200,000 $300B
ALIBABA 1999 66,000 $353B
Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, updated November 2018
Something fundamental is changing

Everytime you interact with an Airbnb
app or the website, you’re interacting
with machine learning in one way or
another.
-Mike Curtis, VP of Engineering

Shifting market logics – The rise of platforms
Ericsson & Augur 2011

Merging e-commerce and brick’n mortar
Over 1 mln Mom & Pop
stores digitalized
Hema cashless supermarkets
with chefs & online order delivery

http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/meet-the-ceo-running-a-billion-dollar-company-with-no-offices-or-email.html

Co-living/co-working for giggers, entrepreneurs & FTEs
https://www.outsite.co/

Cohousing across all generations

Transformation of economic activity
Centralized,
hierarchical
organizations
Decentralized,
self-organizing
organizations

Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague

3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat
Knowledge: RepRap community
E-commerce: Aliexpress

My first attempt at 3D printing – Successful!

Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks

Increasing forces
for local community and
circular economies

Smart cities and microgrids

Sustainable, circular shrimp
”Jag har inte sett så här fina räkor i Sverige sedan….. Nä jag
har ALDRIG sett så här fina räkor.. Smaken den är underbar,
köttet jag kan inte ens beskriva det, det är som en blandning
mellan hummer och havskräfta” -Tareq Taylor

From 30,000 parts to 50 parts with 3D printing

ReGen Villages – Fully self-sufficient
http://www.regenvillages.com/

So, how can we
prepare for the future?

Looking into the future?
• Forecast
–How we think the future will be
• Vision
–How we want the future to be
• Scenarios
–What the future can be
–“Alternative memories” from the future
?
?
?
?

FUTURE OF
VALUE
CREATION
Political Economic
Sociological
TechnologicalEnvironmental
Legal
PESTEL

http://www.hui.se/nyheter/arets-julklapp-2018

http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/

BA
Two individuals (organizations)
with the same number of contacts…

…but with very different
access to signals, ideas, and resources
BA

Peniche, Portugal
One hour north of Lisbon

Centuries of tradition

Tragedy of
the Commons

A Broken Economic Model

Exploration

Marine litter
on Peniche seafloor

Digital technologies enable
ocean opportunities
• Renewables
• Robotics and drones
• AI/ML/NN
• Marine simulations
• New material technologies
• Additive manufacturing
• Internet of things
• Blockchain
Entrepreneurial Mindset

University
Shipyard
Port
Tourists
Entrepreneurs
Fishing Boats
Underutilized Resources
Warehouses
Fishermen
Digital Nomads
Students
Local Industries

Mapping Ocean Litter with AI and
Underwater Drones
Recycling Ocean Waste with
Graphene and 3D Printing
Recovering Ocean Litter with
Repurposed Fishing Vessels
Manufacturing combined
with Blockchain
PENICHE OCEAN WATCH
A Blue Circular Economy Based on Ocean Litter
Sustainable Ocean
Entrepreneurship

Boundary spanning -> Future success
1. Build relationships across diverse networks, avoid echo chambers
2. Practice scenario thinking and look for signals from the periphery
3. Ask “What if?”, challenge basic assumptions, and experiment
4. Ensure access to resources, not ownership, through your networks
Boundary
spanner

Robin Teigland
www.robinteigland.com
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
robin.teigland@gmail.se
@RobinTeigland
http://www.go4surf.pt/
Trond Gunnar Teigland
tgteigland94@gmail.com
https://www.facebook.com/PenicheOceanWatch
@penicheoceanwatch
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