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Klimastrategie der Luftfahrtindustrie
Flugverkehr der Zukunft
Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur – 18. Mai 2017
Thomas Rötger, IATA
Overview
Aviation and climate change
Global market-based measure
Fuel-efficient aircraft technologies
Sustainable aviation fuels
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 2
Aviation and
climate change
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW
Winterthur
3
Aviation climate impact
How much of man-made CO2 emissions
comes from aviation?
?
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 4
Air transport climate change contribution
• Our carbon footprint
is small but growing
From 2% today to 3% in
2050 (IPCC)
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 5
Four pillars of climate action
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 6
Three goals…
(commitment by all aviation industry sectors in 2009)
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 7
8
Aviation climate action
(schematic only)
CORSIA
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
CO2 Standard
Operational measures
Market-based measures (CORSIA)
Alternative fuels for aviation
ICAO Basket of measures
for climate action
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 9
CO2 Standard – definition
CO2 standard adopted in 2016 after 6 years of development and
negotiations
Metric value:
‫ܸܯ‬ =	
ଵ/ௌ஺ோ
ோீிబ.మర as a function of MTOW
SAR: Specific air range [km/kg]
(1/SAR: “fuel consumption” [kg/km])
RGF: Reference geometric factor (similar to cabin area)
10 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
CO2 Standard – applicability
11 18 May 2017
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Applications for new type certificationNew types
In-production types
All modified versions
By 2028 all InP types
In-service aircraft (not applicable)
Not designed to serve as a basis for operating restrictions or emissions levies
Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
18 May 201712
Global market-based
measure
Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW
Winterthur
Aviation’s global market-based measure
Paris Agreement provided momentum to ICAO discussions
Aviation and shipping to be progressed through ICAO and IMO
Historic decision at ICAO Assembly
Nearly all 191 ICAO States supported ‘CORSIA’
Industry was instrumental in agreement
Seven years since industry set goals and started pushing for a global
MBM
13 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
Route-based approach
→ limited market distortion
Included from 2021
(voluntary phase)
Included from 2027
(mandatory phase)
Exempt from
CORSIA
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 14
States included in the first (voluntary) phases
15
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
+
How will offsetting
work for aviation?
16 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
18 May 201717
Fuel-efficient
aircraft technologies
Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW
Winterthur
Technology – Fuel saving potential
(IATA Technology Roadmap – TERESA project with DLR Hamburg)
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 18
Technology – Fuel saving potential
• Wingtips
• More efficient APU
• Engine retrofits
• Composite secondary
structures
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 19
Technology – Fuel saving potential
• New engines (geared
turbofan / counter-
rotating fan)
• Composite primary
structures
• Active load alleviation
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 20
Technology – Fuel saving potential
• New engine architecture,
incl. open rotor
• Natural/hybrid laminar flow
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 21
Technology – Fuel saving potential
• Variable cycle
• Hybrid wing body
• Strut-braced wing
• Fuel cell
• Battery-powered
aircraft
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 22
Technology – Fuel saving potential
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 23
34000 new aircraft over next 20 years (20000 growth, 14000 replacement)
Investment $4.5 trillion
Radically new aircraft configurations
(AIRCAT project with DLR Hamburg)
Evolutionary aircraft configurations: Limited improvement potential
Driven by environmental goals →
Many new projects on radically new configurations over the last few years:
Other than tube-and-wing (e.g. blended wing body)
New propulsion (e.g. open rotor)
New structural configurations (e.g. double-bubble, strut-braced wing,
box wing)
New energy sources (e.g. battery-powered)
etc.
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 24
Impact on global fuel efficiency
Radically new configurations:
Slow market penetration due to
fleet renewal cycles
Could play a larger role beyond
2050
Sustainable fuels
Will have to contribute largest
part to 2050 CO2 reduction goal
Fast uptake of drop-in fuels
once available
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 25
2015 2035 2050
GlobalCO2emissions
evolutionary
only
+radical
configurations
≤ 20%
SAF
2050 goal
Source: IATA/DLR AIRCAT study
Outlook
Radically new concepts and technologies will likely be needed in
the long term to meet the aviation climate goals
Need to secure globally:
Reliable continuous energy supply
Airport compatibility
Passenger acceptance
Way forward for implementation
Start low-level technology development early
Plan infrastructure and operational adaptation early
Plan long lead times and high investments
Accelerate market penetration
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 26
Operational improvements
27
Infrastructural improvements
28
18 May 201729
Sustainable
aviation fuels
Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW
Winterthur
~2008 - 2011
• 1st technical
certifications
• Test/demo flights
etc.
2011 - 2015 2016+
1,100+ flights
360+ flights
260+ flights
• Airline/Supplier
offtake agreements,
e.g.
• Bioports
in preparation:
CommercialReadiness
Airlines supporting sustainable jet fuel
commercialisation
and 20 other airlines
Over 2000 commercial flights
(single or limited series):
R&D/Proof
of Concept
Operational
Feasiblity
Commercial-
Scale Deals
etc.
Reaching Commercial Scale
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 31
Airline/supplier offtake agreements
First bioport with regular
operations: Oslo Airport started
22 Jan 2016
United/AltAir operations started
11 March 2016
Largest agreement (United/
Fulcrum) over 270’000 t/year
In addition, strong investments
by US government (incl. military)
Requirements for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF)
Drop-in
Can be blended with existing jet fuel
No need for adaptation of aircraft / engines nor parallel infrastructure
Technically certified as equivalent to conventional jet fuel
Sustainability
Essential requirement for majority of airline customers
Working with ICAO on globally harmonized criteria
Economic viability
Bridge the cost gap with Jet A-1 fuel
Ensure a level policy play field between road and air
Effective political support needed for sustainable jet fuel deployment
Cooperation
Engagement of producers, suppliers, aviation industry and
governments, EC and ICAO is essential
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 32
Sustainable aviation fuels – Way forward
Sustainable aviation fuels can be a major instrument to meeting
aviation’s long-term emissions reduction goals
Since early 2016, continuous supply starting:
Airline/supplier offtake agreements (mostly US)
Bioports
Today’s barriers are economic rather than technical
Sustainability is key requirement for most aviation customers
Positive political and legislative framework needed
In the mid-to-long term, non-biological SAF solutions (from industrial
waste gases, Power-to-Liquid, Solar jet fuel)
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 33
Conclusions
Environment is a major challenge for aviation
Aviation represents 2% of man-made CO2 emissions, but growing
Aviation is the first global industry sector committing to ambitious
climate goals
ICAO supports these goals with a basket of measures
Global market-based measure, CO2 standard etc.
Technology goals have led to an impressive number of innovation
activities
Sustainable aviation fuels
Radically new aircraft configurations and propulsion energies
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 34
Thank you!
RoetgerT@iata.org
18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 35

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Klimastrategie Luftfahrtindustrie

  • 1. Klimastrategie der Luftfahrtindustrie Flugverkehr der Zukunft Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur – 18. Mai 2017 Thomas Rötger, IATA
  • 2. Overview Aviation and climate change Global market-based measure Fuel-efficient aircraft technologies Sustainable aviation fuels 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 2
  • 3. Aviation and climate change 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 3
  • 4. Aviation climate impact How much of man-made CO2 emissions comes from aviation? ? 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 4
  • 5. Air transport climate change contribution • Our carbon footprint is small but growing From 2% today to 3% in 2050 (IPCC) 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 5
  • 6. Four pillars of climate action 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 6
  • 7. Three goals… (commitment by all aviation industry sectors in 2009) 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 7
  • 8. 8 Aviation climate action (schematic only) CORSIA 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
  • 9. CO2 Standard Operational measures Market-based measures (CORSIA) Alternative fuels for aviation ICAO Basket of measures for climate action 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 9
  • 10. CO2 Standard – definition CO2 standard adopted in 2016 after 6 years of development and negotiations Metric value: ‫ܸܯ‬ = ଵ/ௌ஺ோ ோீிబ.మర as a function of MTOW SAR: Specific air range [km/kg] (1/SAR: “fuel consumption” [kg/km]) RGF: Reference geometric factor (similar to cabin area) 10 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
  • 11. CO2 Standard – applicability 11 18 May 2017 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Applications for new type certificationNew types In-production types All modified versions By 2028 all InP types In-service aircraft (not applicable) Not designed to serve as a basis for operating restrictions or emissions levies Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
  • 12. 18 May 201712 Global market-based measure Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
  • 13. Aviation’s global market-based measure Paris Agreement provided momentum to ICAO discussions Aviation and shipping to be progressed through ICAO and IMO Historic decision at ICAO Assembly Nearly all 191 ICAO States supported ‘CORSIA’ Industry was instrumental in agreement Seven years since industry set goals and started pushing for a global MBM 13 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
  • 14. Route-based approach → limited market distortion Included from 2021 (voluntary phase) Included from 2027 (mandatory phase) Exempt from CORSIA 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 14
  • 15. States included in the first (voluntary) phases 15 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur +
  • 16. How will offsetting work for aviation? 16 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
  • 17. 18 May 201717 Fuel-efficient aircraft technologies Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
  • 18. Technology – Fuel saving potential (IATA Technology Roadmap – TERESA project with DLR Hamburg) 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 18
  • 19. Technology – Fuel saving potential • Wingtips • More efficient APU • Engine retrofits • Composite secondary structures 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 19
  • 20. Technology – Fuel saving potential • New engines (geared turbofan / counter- rotating fan) • Composite primary structures • Active load alleviation 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 20
  • 21. Technology – Fuel saving potential • New engine architecture, incl. open rotor • Natural/hybrid laminar flow 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 21
  • 22. Technology – Fuel saving potential • Variable cycle • Hybrid wing body • Strut-braced wing • Fuel cell • Battery-powered aircraft 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 22
  • 23. Technology – Fuel saving potential 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 23 34000 new aircraft over next 20 years (20000 growth, 14000 replacement) Investment $4.5 trillion
  • 24. Radically new aircraft configurations (AIRCAT project with DLR Hamburg) Evolutionary aircraft configurations: Limited improvement potential Driven by environmental goals → Many new projects on radically new configurations over the last few years: Other than tube-and-wing (e.g. blended wing body) New propulsion (e.g. open rotor) New structural configurations (e.g. double-bubble, strut-braced wing, box wing) New energy sources (e.g. battery-powered) etc. 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 24
  • 25. Impact on global fuel efficiency Radically new configurations: Slow market penetration due to fleet renewal cycles Could play a larger role beyond 2050 Sustainable fuels Will have to contribute largest part to 2050 CO2 reduction goal Fast uptake of drop-in fuels once available 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 25 2015 2035 2050 GlobalCO2emissions evolutionary only +radical configurations ≤ 20% SAF 2050 goal Source: IATA/DLR AIRCAT study
  • 26. Outlook Radically new concepts and technologies will likely be needed in the long term to meet the aviation climate goals Need to secure globally: Reliable continuous energy supply Airport compatibility Passenger acceptance Way forward for implementation Start low-level technology development early Plan infrastructure and operational adaptation early Plan long lead times and high investments Accelerate market penetration 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 26
  • 29. 18 May 201729 Sustainable aviation fuels Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur
  • 30. ~2008 - 2011 • 1st technical certifications • Test/demo flights etc. 2011 - 2015 2016+ 1,100+ flights 360+ flights 260+ flights • Airline/Supplier offtake agreements, e.g. • Bioports in preparation: CommercialReadiness Airlines supporting sustainable jet fuel commercialisation and 20 other airlines Over 2000 commercial flights (single or limited series): R&D/Proof of Concept Operational Feasiblity Commercial- Scale Deals etc.
  • 31. Reaching Commercial Scale 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 31 Airline/supplier offtake agreements First bioport with regular operations: Oslo Airport started 22 Jan 2016 United/AltAir operations started 11 March 2016 Largest agreement (United/ Fulcrum) over 270’000 t/year In addition, strong investments by US government (incl. military)
  • 32. Requirements for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) Drop-in Can be blended with existing jet fuel No need for adaptation of aircraft / engines nor parallel infrastructure Technically certified as equivalent to conventional jet fuel Sustainability Essential requirement for majority of airline customers Working with ICAO on globally harmonized criteria Economic viability Bridge the cost gap with Jet A-1 fuel Ensure a level policy play field between road and air Effective political support needed for sustainable jet fuel deployment Cooperation Engagement of producers, suppliers, aviation industry and governments, EC and ICAO is essential 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 32
  • 33. Sustainable aviation fuels – Way forward Sustainable aviation fuels can be a major instrument to meeting aviation’s long-term emissions reduction goals Since early 2016, continuous supply starting: Airline/supplier offtake agreements (mostly US) Bioports Today’s barriers are economic rather than technical Sustainability is key requirement for most aviation customers Positive political and legislative framework needed In the mid-to-long term, non-biological SAF solutions (from industrial waste gases, Power-to-Liquid, Solar jet fuel) 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 33
  • 34. Conclusions Environment is a major challenge for aviation Aviation represents 2% of man-made CO2 emissions, but growing Aviation is the first global industry sector committing to ambitious climate goals ICAO supports these goals with a basket of measures Global market-based measure, CO2 standard etc. Technology goals have led to an impressive number of innovation activities Sustainable aviation fuels Radically new aircraft configurations and propulsion energies 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 34
  • 35. Thank you! RoetgerT@iata.org 18 May 2017Energie- und Umweltforum, ZHAW Winterthur 35