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Embraer november 2010 redburn

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Embraer november 2010 redburn

  1. 1. 1
  2. 2. Company Highlights 2
  3. 3. Highlights Company established in 1969, with business in four segments. Privatized in 1994 and listed in USA in 2000. Strong Balance sheet with solid Net cash position. Global footprint.Broad customer base in commercial, executive and defense aviation segments. Investment Grade rating by Moody’s and S&P. Highly experienced management team. 3
  4. 4. Global Business Operations in Brazil, USA, Europe and Asia One of Brazil’s largest exporters of manufactured goods Dual listed in Brazil’s Bovespa (1989) and NYSE (2000) Diversified customer-base across five continents France Villepinte Le Bourget USA Fort Lauderdale Portugal Nashville Alverca Mesa Évora* China Widson Locks Louisville Beijing Minneapolis Harbin Melbourne* Singapore Singapore Brazil São José dos Campos Gavião Peixoto Botucatu Taubaté São Paulo* Under construction Countries of Operation Factories Offices Service Centers Spare Parts Distribution Centers Contracted/ Planned Authorized Network 4
  5. 5. Aircraft Deliveries 244 204 *98 160 161 169 *2 148 141 131 130 96 101 60321997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 * Phenom Jets Through 3Q10 YTD: 154 aircraft delivered 5
  6. 6. Net Revenue (US GAAP)US$ Million 6,335 5,245 5,466 5,250 3,830 3,760 3,441 2,762 2,927 2,526 1,837 2,144 1,354 764 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Guidance 2010: Net Revenue - US$ 5.25 billion * Estimated 6
  7. 7. Firm Order Backlog US$ Billion 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.62.2 2.3 20.9 18.8 16.6 7 14.8 15.2 15.3 11.4 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.0 6.44.11998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2Q10 3Q10 2010 Firm Order Backlog Backlog/Revenue (Years) 7
  8. 8. RevenueNet RevenueUS$ Billion 2.76 3.83 5.47 3.39 7% 11% 13% 4% 14% 1% 11% 9% 13% 7% 16% 15% 88% 71% 62% 58% 2000 2005 2009 YTD10 Commercial aviation Executive aviation Defense Aviation services and others 8
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  10. 10. Product Portfolio capacity: 37 seats capacity: 70 to 80 seats range: 1,750 nm (3,250 Km) range: 2,100 nm (3,900 Km) capacity: 44 seats capacity: 78 to 88 seats range: 1,650 nm (3,050 Km) range: 2,000 nm (3,700 Km) capacity: 98 to 114 seats capacity: 50 seats range: 2,400 nm (4,500 Km) range: 1,550 nm (2,900 Km) capacity: 50 seats capacity: 108 to 122 seats range: 2,000 nm (3,700 Km) range: 2,200 nm (4,100 Km) 10
  11. 11. Commercial Aviation Order Book 3Q10 Firm Firm Orders Options Total Deliveries BacklogERJ 145 Family 890 - 890 886 4EMBRAER 170 191 47 238 180 11EMBRAER 175 173 278 451 130 43EMBRAER 190 457 356 813 301 156EMBRAER 195 95 66 161 60 35TOTAL E-JETS 916 747 1.663 671 245 TOTAL 1.806 747 2.553 1.557 249 11
  12. 12. Worldwide DistributionCommercial Jets Market Share Evolution Worldwide Diversified Customers Across 5 Continents 30-120 Seats Jets North Asia Pacific / America China75% 15% 14% Latin60% America Middle East / Africa 17% 21%45% 44% 43% Europe / CIS 33%30% Firm Orders Asia Pacific / China15% 4% 14% 3% 3% 2% 1% North Middle East /0% 0% America Africa 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 44% 9%Considering Accumulated Firm Orders: Embraer Bombardier Comac Europe / CIS Sukhoi Boeing Airbus 21% Latin America Antonov Mitsubishi 12% 12
  13. 13. E-Jets Deployment 6% 29% 21% 8% 32% 25% 5% 14% 8% 7% 6% 33% 5% 57% 5% 49% 40% 8% 62% 20% 12% Europe 7% 11% North C h in a America 20% 33% 31% 39% Middle East 8% 11% 49% 52% 50% Latin Africa Asia P acific AmericaWorld 50% 20% 9% 21% Right-sizing New Markets Replacement Natural of old Jets Growth 13
  14. 14. Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2029)Around 6,875 jet deliveries (30-120 seats) in the next 20 years (US$ 200 bi) Russia / CIS Europe North 405 155 America 1,510 580 6% 22% 2,400 840 China 35% 32% Middle 340 950 Africa East Projected Deliveries - Jets 14% 13% Market Segment 2010 – 2019 2029 220 80 240 105 Latin Asia 3% 4% (Seats) Deliveries Pacific America 30-60 475 60 210 575 315 575 8% 61-90 2,515 1,015 12% 8% 91-120 3,885 1,550 30-120 6,875 2,625 14
  15. 15. World Replacement Opportunities (Jets 61-120 seats) 350 B737-500Number of Aircraft 300 250 B737-200 Bae 146 200 150 F100 DC-9 TU-134 100 B717-200 YAK-42 50 F70 F28 0 5 15 25 35 Average Age (years) Nearly 1,000 aircraft with more than 15 years old 15
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  17. 17. Product Portfolio Aircraft Model Seats / Range Competitors Entry • Cessna - Mustang Phenom 100 4 / 1,160 nm CJ1+ Certified: 2008 Phenom 300 • Cessna - CJ3 Light 6 / 1,800 nm • Hawker - H400XP Certified: 2009 4 to 8 / 2,200 • Bombardier - Mid-light Legacy 450 Lear 60XR to 2,300 nm Expected Certification: 2013 • Cessna - XLS+ Mid-size Legacy 500 4 to 8 / 2,800 • Cessna - Sovereign to 3,200 nm • Hawker - H900XP Expected Certification: 2012 Super Mid-Size Legacy 600 10 to 14 / 3,250 nm • Bombardier - Certified: 2001 Challenger 300/605 • Dassault – Falcon Large Legacy 650 10 to 14 / 3,900 nm 2000EX/LX Certified: 2010 • Bombardier –Ultra-Long Range Global XRS • Gulfstream – G550 Lineage 1000 13 to 19 / 4,400 Ultra-large • Airbus - A318 Elite to 4,500 nm Certified: 2008 17
  18. 18. Product Portfolio 18
  19. 19. Market ShareRevenue share (US$ - based on B&CA list prices) Deliveries share (units) $12.9Bi $16.4Bi $19.0Bi $21.9Bi $17.0Bi Total 749 885 1,154 870 1,040 5% 8% 6% 5% 6% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2%% OEM Share – Total Revenues US$ 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 14% 11% 4.2% 19% 16% 16% 3.5% 3.9% 4.7% 6.5% 3.3% % OEM Share – Total units 2.7% 3.1% 3.5% 14.0% 23% 23% 24% 13% 13% 14% 23% 21% 12% 6% 11% 7% 7% 7% 9% 11% 11% 12% 12% 18% 16% 16% 18% 33% 35% 37% 40% 17% 12% 33% 30% 29% 28% 29% 28% 25% 24% 22% 21% 20% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Market Forecast 2010: $16.2 Bi. Market Forecast 2010: 750 units. Embraer Guidance: $1.1 Bi. Embraer Forecast: 137 units. Bombardier Dassault Hawker-Beech Embraer Gulfstream Cessna Others 19
  20. 20. 2011-20 Market Forecast World DeliveriesIndustry Deliveries (units) Industry Revenues 240 200 160 US$ 210 Bi US$ 169.6 Bi (10,000 jets) 120 (9,029 jets) 80 40 0 2000-10 2011-20 Historic ForecastMore than 10,000 jets: US$ 210 billion over the next 10 years
  21. 21. Business Jets Traffic US/FAA Bizjet Flight Activity220,000 2005 2007190,000 2008 2006160,000 2010 2009130,000100,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec European Bizjet Flight Activity60,00050,00040,000 2008 2007 2010 200630,000 2009 200520,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 21
  22. 22. Pre Owned Market Fleet for Sale 2008: Net increase of 1,100 a/c Business Jets For Sale 2009: Net increase of 33 a/c 2010TD: Net decrease of 157 a/c % for sale (per total fleet in operation) fleet from 6 to 10 yrs 3500 28% up to 10 yrs % for sale fleet up to 5 yrs and positions 26% % for sale (per total fleet 3000 in operation) to 5 yrs fleet up fleet older than 10 yrs 24% 22% positions 15.0% / 10.5% 2500 20% % of active fleet 2647 jets / 896 jets 18% 2000 16%Units 14% 1500 12% 10% 1000 8% 6% 500 4% 2% 0 0% Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q 1Q2Q3Q4Q 1 Q2Q3Q4Q 1 Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q 1Q2Q3Q4Q 1Q2Q3Q4Q 1 Q2Q3Q4Q 1 Q2Q3Q4 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Embraer analysis – October 2010 22
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  24. 24. Defense Products and ServicesISR (Intelligence, Surveillance Advanced Training and Transport of Authorities Military Tactical Transport and Reconnaissance) Light Attack Modernization Programs Services Command and Control Systems 24
  25. 25. Super Tucano• Firm orders: 172 aircraft • Brazil: 99 • Training and COIN aircraft Market • Colombia: 25 Forecast 2020 • Dominican Republic: 8 • 700 aircraft / US$ 8 bi • Chile: 12 • Prospects: • Ecuador: 18 • Undisclosed: 10 • South East Asia • Africa Deliveries: 146 aircraft Ref.: September 2010 • Americas• To be delivered: 26 aircraft
  26. 26. EMBRAER KC-390Length: 33.81 m (110.9 ft)Wingspan: 35.06 m (115.0 ft)Height: 10.26 m (33.7 ft)• New tactical military transport aircraft • Currently in the “Initial Definition Phase”• Payload: 23 ton / Range: 1400 nm • Market Forecast 2025: 700 aircraft / US$ 50+ bi• Contract signed with Brazilian Air Force in April 2009 26
  27. 27. Financial Results 27
  28. 28. Business Highlights Sale of 37 E-Jets at Farnbourogh. Sale of 10 + 5 EMBRAER 190 jets to Air Lease Corp. Argentina’s Austral received its first EMBRAER 190. Embraer expands its Customer Support in China. NetJets buys 50 Phenom 300, plus 75 options at NBAA. Legacy 650 certified by ANAC and EASA. Deliveries in 4Q10.Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Portugal, Czech Republic and Argentina signed LOI for up to 60 KC-390 aircraft. 28 28
  29. 29. Financial Highlights Firm order backlog remained stable at US$ 15.3 billion. Net revenues of US$ 1.04 billion and gross margin of 22.1%.EBIT of US$ 63 million and EBIT margin of 6.0%. YTD EBIT margin of 7.3%. Net income totaled US$ 98.5 million. Earnings per ADS of US$ 0.5443. Stable net cash position of US$ 623.8 million. 29 29
  30. 30. Deliveries2010 projected deliveries• 90 commercial jets• 17 Legacy / Lineage• 120 Phenom 97 78 70 43 13 6 9M09 9M10 55 39 30 28 29 22 21 20 22 17 5 8 3 1 2 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Commercial Jets Phenom Legacy and Lineage 30
  31. 31. RevenueNet RevenueUS$ Billion 1.25 1.61 1.00 1.35 1.04 12% 14% 16% 12% 16% 6% 13% 7% 16% 16% 19% 14% 19% 26% 12% 66% 61% 53% 58% 44% 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Commercial aviation Executive aviation Defense Aviation services and others 31
  32. 32. Net Revenues and Gross Margin US Gaap - US$ Million IFRS - US$ Million 20.8% 21.7% 21.4% 22.1% 19.7% 20.8% 20.2% 20.6%18.8% 17.9% 1,610 1,614 1,354 1,3581,246 1,250 990 1,043 992 1,0443Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Net Revenues Gross Margin 32
  33. 33. Income from Operations US Gaap - US$ Million IFRS - US$ Million 7.2% 9.0% 6.4% 9,3% 5,8% 6,0% 7.3%5,5% 4,1% 2.4% 126 122 9168 66 63 71 66 57 393Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Income from Operations Operating Margin 33
  34. 34. EBITDA US Gaap - US$ Million IFRS - US$ Million 10.2% 12.2% 12.5% 11.8% 12.1% 8.1% 7.7%7.2% 5.6% 6.5% 139 166 151 131 90 89 105 117 80 80 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 EBITDA EBITDA Margin 34
  35. 35. Net Income US Gaap - US$ Million IFRS - US$ Million 9.4% 9.1% 12.1% 5.2% 9.8%4.6% 3.6% 5.9% 4.2% 2.4% 146 122 126 99 95 58 70 57 35 24 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Net Income Net Margin 35
  36. 36. Free Cash Flow US Gaap - US$ Million IFRS - US$ Million 364 383 253 220 6 23 (57) (42) (44) (60) 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q103Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 36
  37. 37. Indebtedness Profile Net Cash (USGAAP)Total Debt 3Q10: US$ 1.43 Billion Total Cash 3Q10: US$ 2.05 Billion Indebtedness Maturity Net Cash 6% 25% 22% 29%47% 6.1 5.8 4.9 5.0 94% 659 624 71% 75% 78% 5032.6 45953% 713Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Long-term Short-term Loans Average Maturity (Years) (USGAAP) 37
  38. 38. 2010 Guidance Revision 38
  39. 39. 2010 Guidance and Outlook Current Guidance - 2Q10 New GuidanceNet Revenues US$ 5.25 billion EBIT US$ 340 million US$ 380 million ~12%EBIT margin 6.50% 7.25% Current Outlook New Outlook EBITDA US$ 420 million US$ 460 million ~10%EBITDA margin 8.0% 8.75% R&D US$ 160 million PP&E US$ 140 million ~30% US$ 100 million 39
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  41. 41. Forward Looking StatementThis presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstanceswhich have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our currentexpectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and ourfuture financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties andassumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions,both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,”“anticipates,” “intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-lookingstatements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statementsbecause of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties,the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Ouractual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. 41

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