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Semelhante a Draft stuck makingdecisions-learnfromradioactivebanana
Semelhante a Draft stuck makingdecisions-learnfromradioactivebanana (20)
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Draft stuck makingdecisions-learnfromradioactivebanana
- 1. Stuck making a decision? Get help from a radioactive banana!
- 2. • Relying on data to make your decision for you? That’s for WIMPS. • Hiding behind your data is a ROOKIE MOVE that gets you NOWHERE. That’s because data is either misinterpreted or WRONG in the first place. • FINE FINE, you say, that’s all well and good, but these decisions won’t make themselves! What do we do? Do we have to go with our GUT? Is there a MIDDLE GROUND?? TELL US WHAT TO DO!
- 3. Chart Go with your gut External verification
- 4. • In this talk you will learn how to avoid falling for the trap of supposedly neutral, data driven decision making. • I will systematically pick apart every decision you have ever made – KIDDING – rather, • I will show example after example of GOOD decisions and BAD decisions to show exactly WHOSE FAULT IT ALL IS (yours). • You will find that if you are extremely LAZY and self-aware enough to realize what your MOTIVATION is and your CAPABILITIES are, you hardly need to do any work AT ALL! You can skate by on just enough data to get you off your BUTT.
- 5. Did you know bananas are radioactive?
- 6. Here is exactly how radioactive they are! Banana = 2 blue squares All the blue squares fit into just one green square Living in a concrete building for a year, such as building 50, is three green squares
- 7. Did you know there is a small amount of cyanide in apple seeds?
- 8. Here is how many you would have to eat in one sitting for it to kill you Or you could choose this many apricot pits
- 9. Why am I sharing these horrible things about the fruit we eat every day? I hate this!!! • It’s good you are having this reaction • It’s normal to feel defensive about your fruit • The fruit is a METAPHOR okay, of… – The piece of data you have no control over – The piece of data that is off brand – The piece of data you had no intention of acting on – The info is way outside your motivation and capabilities. SO DISCARD IT
- 10. Radioactive Banana :: Red Herring • It’s true we’re seeing some outlying data that our customers need our product localized into Esperanto. • But we won’t do it. It’s a radioactive banana. • It’s true that our customers sometimes talk with us on the phone for a long time and we would save money if we talked from a script. • But we won’t do it. It’s a radioactive banana.
- 11. Venn Diagram Motivation “Am I motivated to change it? Control “Is it within my powers to change it?” Yes, it’s a great idea to measure it
- 12. The Observer Effect • Data sometimes changes when you measure it! • PROOF that we are never neutral observers, even when we want to be. Actual tree falling in actual forest
- 13. Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle The more precisely the position of some particle is determined, the less precisely its momentum can be known. imnotyetdead.wordpress.com 13
- 14. Schroedinger’s Cat Observation itself affects an outcome, as an outcome, as such, does not exist until it is observed thenerdiestshirts.com 14
- 16. The FUTURE of the INTERNET
- 17. The Latte Budget • Completely buried under an abstract category “Entertainment.” Because I am never going to get rid of lattes.
- 18. The streaming video budget • Total data driven analysis Problem Statement Theories Plan Data Collection Watching: Low Watching: High Browsing: Low Cancel Keep Browsing: High Cancel Cancel
- 19. We used to enjoy making decisions! Old Way • 31 Flavors • Choosing is fun! New Way • 29 Dimensions of Compatibility • We choose for you 19 groupon.co.in and onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com
- 20. This is ultimately why celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain visited Chernobyl • It was to bring back the FUN in decision making! • Plus, a zillion greens!
- 21. It sure beats eating several town’s worth of bananas
- 22. KEEP IT REAL SECTION • Here is an actual, true-life screenshot of my “Should I quit Microsoft” decision making chart
- 23. Examples of Motivation 23 Company Question Answer… THIS is what we are motivated to do. Zappos What values do we want our employees to demonstrate? “Deliver WOW through service” (Zappos.com) Apple What do we want customers to feel? “Delight. Surprise. Love. Connection” (Steve Jobs, 1997) Microsoft What type of products should we make? “Create a family of devices and services for individuals and businesses that empower people around the globe at home, at work and on the go, for the activities they value most.” (Ballmer, 2013 shareholder letter) Google How will we make money? Don’t be evil, updated to “You can make money without doing evil.” (Google.com/about/company/philosop hy)
- 25. In conclusion
Notas do Editor
- There are two very smart people who have tried to help us regarding the observer effect. One is Heisenberg of the famous Heisenberg Uncertaintly Principle. I love the name of this principle because that is where we are when we are trying to make a decision: Uncertain. How do we know that, just because we filled out a very long survey on eHarnony, we haven’t permanently altered our personality such that we are now more pissed off? That’s an example of measuring the data actually changing what you will find.
- Heisenberg had a colleague Schroedinger who gave use a famous thought experiment where there is a cat in a box with a vial of poison. The poison may leak out or may not, it is a 50 50 chance for the poor kitty. Schroedinger challenged us to imagine that the state the cat is in, before the box is opened, is actually unresolved. The cat is both dead and notdead. It is the observation that resolves the cat’s state and, he challenged us further, actually kills the cat.
- (pause) These are all big problems. We can’t trust our gut, and data is flawed because as soon as we glance at it, it changes. What do we do, how do we make decisions anymore? Since analysis paralysis is not an option…
- The VP may have been correct anyway. Survey responders are wacky folks! (Story about upcoming performance showdown)
- Lots of people have to make decisions every day for their personal life or for business. Many people have realized they are bad decision makers. If they just go with their gut they will get it wrong. Experts have jumped in to help us by insisting we stop doing this, and instead use data to make some if not all of our decisions. Somewhere along the way we have lost our ability to make decisions and would rather the data speak for us.
- Images of bananas spread across several towns. Will probably have to self-shoot, not finding anything on stock.
- Have we had the obligatory slide on how to quit your job at Microsoft yet? No? Okay here is tonight’s. Every exiting MSFT employee, of their own volition, makes a chart that shows… nay… QUANTIFIES that things will be OK. Solid numbers like financials are mashed up with soft numbers like “life satisfaction” to form a full picture that says SURRENDER YOUR KEYCARD. The next person who does this should create an excel macro just to save everyone else the time. Making this chart is an example of ANALYSIS PARALYSIS. TMI too much information. All you need to make this decision is one thing. One little thing. What is the smallest, measurable thing you can look at that if it hits a certain number, you’re done. YOU DON”T NEED THE WHOLE LANDSCAPE.
- And this is what we do with our data gathering. With our analytics dashboards. We have no motivation, we want to be completely neutral, so we measure everything we can get our hands on and then FREAK OUT. Guess who doesn’t freak out? Companies that know what their motivation and capabilities are. Zappo’s and service. Google and evil. Apple and love. So if you want it, and it’s within your powers, then go ahead and measure that but just that. Back up your decision with data. Be willing to be influenced by what you find – maybe the act of measuring will affect your opinions on what needs changed. But subscribing to gobs and gobs of data collection as if you were a neutral observer is a COP OUT. It’s a myth. Leaders are not neutral observers. Leaders have opinions. And LEADERS MAKE DECISIONS.
- Leaders are not neutral observers. Leaders have opinions. And LEADERS MAKE DECISIONS.
- Remember the banana! Learn from the banana! Then, IGNORE THE BANANA!